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Post by John Chanin on Jul 23, 2021 6:35:35 GMT
As always local issues are often important and invisible to outsiders, but I do wonder whether Labour’s selection of a Muslim candidate was unhelpful in this area. |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 23, 2021 6:41:24 GMT
Do you know where it is? (I did not see it in the thread) Yes. A look through that might have prepared some minds for the possibility of a loss in Leicester. |
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froome
Green
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Post by froome on Jul 23, 2021 6:51:14 GMT
Britain Elects (@britainelects) Tweeted: Congresbury and Puxton (North Somerset), council by-election result: GRN: 64.5% (+64.5) CON: 29.3% (+15.7) LAB: 6.2% (-25.8) Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. No LDem (-54.4) as prev. That's a stonking win for us, and a very good result for the residents in North Somerset. The 'rainbow alliance' council that took over in 2019 are proving to be genuinely popular, and show how Tory administrations that were as dreadful as the previous one had been can be defeated and kept at bay. It also shows how, in what became a head to head between ourselves and the Conservatives (the Labour vote was always going to fall away after 2019's high), we can easily defeat them in areas where the demographics suggest otherwise, building on the respect we've built up over 30 years of representation in the ward. That said, purely from a psephological view, it would have been fascinating to see what result might have occurred had the Lib Dems also stood. My guess is that we would still have topped the poll fairly easily, and second place may have been close between them and the Tories, but that can only be speculation, as we will never know. Also, a great result for us in Staines as well, a very different place to Congresbury. As andrewteale said in his preview, once we get in we can be hard to dislodge... |
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Post by rhyfelwyr on Jul 23, 2021 7:23:35 GMT
RHONDDA CYNON TAF Tyn-y-Nant BARTON, Julie Ann (Labour) 411 GREEN, Rob (Conservative) 62 BELLIN, Ioan (Plaid Cymru) 35 Labour up 9% and the Tories down 16%. A very poor result for them given this is an area of the county where they shouldn't do too badly.
Next door to Beddau. It's not the most obvious territory for the Tories. |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 23, 2021 7:57:15 GMT
Actual numbers from Cliftonville East
Con 723
Lab 211
WEP 37
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jul 23, 2021 7:58:29 GMT
Labour up 9% and the Tories down 16%. A very poor result for them given this is an area of the county where they shouldn't do too badly.
Next door to Beddau. It's not the most obvious territory for the Tories. You misunderstand. I am not saying the Tories should/ could have gained it, but falling 16% is just bad.
Perhaps it's not the 'nicest' area being mainly made-up of council/ex-council stock, but this is firmly Cardiff commuter belt and many residents would orientate to Cardiff as their main shopping area versus Pontypridd to the north. Oh, and it's just next door to Tory held Llantwit Fadre.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 23, 2021 8:04:33 GMT
Next door to Beddau. It's not the most obvious territory for the Tories. You misunderstand. I am not saying the Tories should/ could have gained it, but falling 16% is just bad.
Perhaps it's not the 'nicest' area being mainly made-up of council/ex-council stock, but this is firmly Cardiff commuter belt and many residents would orientate to Cardiff as their main shopping area versus Pontypridd to the north. Oh, and it's just next door to Tory held Llantwit Fadre.
Labour had the most local candidate here and South Wales Valleys tend to be the type of area where that matters. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 23, 2021 8:10:40 GMT
Yes, that’s why Andrew’s Previews are a must read, they’re full of useful info like that… Do you know where it is? (I did not see it in the thread) Post #63 above |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 23, 2021 8:10:43 GMT
Need actual numbers for Conglesbury & Puxton plus Camden later today.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 23, 2021 8:24:49 GMT
Britain Elects (@britainelects) Tweeted: Congresbury and Puxton (North Somerset), council by-election result: GRN: 64.5% (+64.5) CON: 29.3% (+15.7) LAB: 6.2% (-25.8) Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. No LDem (-54.4) as prev. That's a stonking win for us, and a very good result for the residents in North Somerset. The 'rainbow alliance' council that took over in 2019 are proving to be genuinely popular, and show how Tory administrations that were as dreadful as the previous one had been can be defeated and kept at bay. It also shows how, in what became a head to head between ourselves and the Conservatives (the Labour vote was always going to fall away after 2019's high), we can easily defeat them in areas where the demographics suggest otherwise, building on the respect we've built up over 30 years of representation in the ward. That said, purely from a psephological view, it would have been fascinating to see what result might have occurred had the Lib Dems also stood. My guess is that we would still have topped the poll fairly easily, and second place may have been close between them and the Tories, but that can only be speculation, as we will never know. Also, a great result for us in Staines as well, a very different place to Congresbury. As andrewteale said in his preview, once we get in we can be hard to dislodge... The Green vote in the former Congresbury ward was 58.7% in 2003, 65.3% in 2007 and 58.1% in 2011, with respective majorities over Conservatives of 17.4%, 33.4% and 28.7%. This compares to a 64.5% share last night on the new boundaries and a majority of 35.2%. |
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Post by samdwebber on Jul 23, 2021 8:31:47 GMT
Fortune Green count begins at 10am
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Post by samdwebber on Jul 23, 2021 9:16:33 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 23, 2021 9:21:13 GMT
As always local issues are often important and invisible to outsiders, but I do wonder whether Labour’s selection of a Muslim candidate was unhelpful in this area. Possibly, but the 2011 census doesn't suggest that's the likeliest reason. The ward's demographics in the 2011 census are fairly mixed (33% Christian; 21% Hindu, 15% Muslim, 7% Sikh; 44% white British; 40% Asian) and judging by the surnames, the ward has previously elected Hindu, Muslim and Sikh Labour councillors with no great variation in the number of votes each received. |
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Post by November_Rain on Jul 23, 2021 9:26:06 GMT
As expected, a strong victory for the Greens in Congresbury and Puxton. Phil Neve is an active campaigner and is the perfect fit for the area. There are a lot of local issues such as house building on green-belt land and the expansion of Bristol Airport.
As for Labour, well I think 2019 was a fluke in the ward and it seemed like it was just a 'paper candidacy' for us there. Not ONE THING to say Vote Labour on the CLP social media pages. The local CLP is a mess anyway, and I'm hoping the main people who are the problem are one of those being expelled. I know we were chanceless, but I'd want some fight.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 23, 2021 9:26:27 GMT
Probably a good result for the people of Leicester, virtual one party states are bad for democracy. Maybe true, but I’m not sure two opposition councillors, from Party’s that have a mixed record of working together, is an altogether large dent in the one party state. Actually it could be very significant for two reasons as long as they can work together: 1) There is now a mover and a seconder for any opposition business. So had the ruling Labour group wanted to silence discussion on any topics, they could have refused to second any awkward motions / call-ins etc. And they no longer have this power. 2) Having 2 opposition Councillors gives them group status, rights to sit on committees in law, and to be formally recognised in a way a sole Councillor does not. And this will all give opposition activity a lot more oxygen which will interest local journalists who must dread covering one party states. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 23, 2021 9:42:51 GMT
We await the figures but this will be at least a 12% swing since 2019 and 7% since 2015 whilst following on from Sandwell: Tividale last week. Both are arguably instances of Labour "machine politics" (Tom Watson's in Sandwell, Keith Vaz's here) going bad. And the circumstances surrounding the local MP probably didn't help Labour here. |
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Post by rhyfelwyr on Jul 23, 2021 9:49:32 GMT
Next door to Beddau. It's not the most obvious territory for the Tories. You misunderstand. I am not saying the Tories should/ could have gained it, but falling 16% is just bad.
Perhaps it's not the 'nicest' area being mainly made-up of council/ex-council stock, but this is firmly Cardiff commuter belt and many residents would orientate to Cardiff as their main shopping area versus Pontypridd to the north. Oh, and it's just next door to Tory held Llantwit Fadre.
The whole of RCT is pretty much Cardiff commuter territory nowadays. Which is why it takes longer to get to Cardiff of a morning from where I grew up (the top end of the Rhondda Fach) than it does where I live now (West Glos). Whole place is smot up with traffic every morning and evening. A470 is one big crawl. Whether or not the Metro will alleviate this remains to be seen. |
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jul 23, 2021 9:50:02 GMT
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Post by rhyfelwyr on Jul 23, 2021 9:50:55 GMT
You misunderstand. I am not saying the Tories should/ could have gained it, but falling 16% is just bad.
Perhaps it's not the 'nicest' area being mainly made-up of council/ex-council stock, but this is firmly Cardiff commuter belt and many residents would orientate to Cardiff as their main shopping area versus Pontypridd to the north. Oh, and it's just next door to Tory held Llantwit Fadre.
Labour had the most local candidate here and South Wales Valleys tend to be the type of area where that matters. Definitely. They'll not vote for someone from 'the other valley'. Because they're all twpsyn's over by there  |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 9:52:00 GMT
We await the figures but this will be at least a 12% swing since 2019 and 7% since 2015 whilst following on from Sandwell: Tividale last week. Both are arguably instances of Labour "machine politics" (Tom Watson's in Sandwell, Keith Vaz's here) going bad. And the circumstances surrounding the local MP probably didn't help Labour here. It would be useful to get some local intelligence but this is a pretty awful result. |
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