Local Council by-elections 22nd July 2021

[andrew111]

Jun 30, 2021 16:34:35 GMT carlton43 said:

Jun 30, 2021 16:23:21 GMT andrew111 said:

But where does the transmutation of cranes into giraffes come in?

A small dusty empty room down an obscure corridor in what she is pleased to term 'her brain'!

Oh, there was me picturing her as a genetic engineering genius!

[ilerda]

I’m pretty sure neither party has an official policy on giraffe cranes, so that can’t have been her main reason for defecting.

[kevin]

Think this one has been missed.

Dover DC, Alkham and Capel-le-ferne ward. Cons defending.

www.dover.gov.uk/Council--Democracy/Elections/SoPN-NoP-and-SoPS.pdf

[Tony Otim]

Jul 11, 2021 11:17:36 GMT kevin said:

Think this one has been missed.

Dover DC, Alkham and Capel-le-ferne ward. Cons defending.

www.dover.gov.uk/Council--Democracy/Elections/SoPN-NoP-and-SoPS.pdf

Thanks - now added to opening post. Not sure how I missed that.

[November_Rain]

Re: Congresbury & Puxton by-election - you would think there wasn't one on! The Green candidate has been campaigning online, but nothing from Labour or the Tories. Not even the local CLP page is telling people in the area to vote for our candidate. Without saying too much, I know there are huge problems in our CLP but come on!

[listener]

Fortune Green (Camden)

A friend of mine has been keeping me up to date with the campaign in Fortune Green, where the Lib Dems are defending their sole remaining seat (the result of a strong personal vote for the veteran retiring councillor, Flick Rea). The ward was comfortably Lib Dem for at last three elections, until their vote collapsed to Labour in 2014. My friend was canvassed by the Lib Dems even before the by-election was called and has received two further visits since.

He has now sent me the Labour Party leaflet (two sides of A3), which states "The Tories are targeting Fortune Green. The Tories came second in the May 2021 election. Your vote can keep Fortune Green Labour", followed immediately by a coloured bar chart showing the voting strength of Labour, Tory and "Other". The leaflet goes on to state "The Tories are throwing everything at this election - Don't let them win" over a largish photo of what purports to be ten Conservative campaigners, flourishing three Conservative posters, followed by a similarly sized facial close-up of Boris Johnson with a danger sign beside him.

I was rather surprised by this emphasis on the Tories, who are certainly starting in third place, as I would have thought that Labour should be challenging the incumbent Lib Dems, rather than the Tories. Maybe this is a subtle tactic to persuade hesitating Lib Dems to vote Labour, in order to keep the Tories out.

After the strong visual emphasis on the Conservatives, there is a small text at the foot of the first page, stating "And don't forget: The Tories and Lib Dems worked together in Coalition to run the council. When they were in power, they sold off council homes at auction."

Is the Labour tactic to dramatise the menace of the Tories, whilst downplaying the very existence of the Lib Dems in Fortune Green?

Or maybe polling is indicating that the Conservatives are a real threat in Fortune Green?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Flick Rea's personal vote over the average of the other two Lib Dem candidates:

2006: +24.7%
2010: +15.2% (general election turnout)
2014: +26.8%
2018: +27.5%

[The Bishop]

Though if the Tories did finish second in the mayoral race, it is surely legitimate to mention that? Its not like its "canvass returns" or similar.

[John Chanin]

The Liberals have a very long history in Fortune Green until the coalition, when votes switched to Labour, but the inimitable Flick Rea kept her seat ona personal vote. London has a quick turnover of residents though, and probably the majority of the present electorate won't remember the long Liberal incumbency. I'd rate Labour as strong favourites.

[andrew111]

Jul 19, 2021 10:38:45 GMT listener said:

Fortune Green (Camden)

A friend of mine has been keeping me up to date with the campaign in Fortune Green, where the Lib Dems are defending their sole remaining seat (the result of a strong personal vote for the veteran retiring councillor, Flick Rea). The ward was comfortably Lib Dem for at last three elections, until their vote collapsed to Labour in 2014. My friend was canvassed by the Lib Dems even before the by-election was called and has received two further visits since.

He has now sent me the Labour Party leaflet (two sides of A3), which states "The Tories are targeting Fortune Green. The Tories came second in the May 2021 election. Your vote can keep Fortune Green Labour", followed immediately by a coloured bar chart showing the voting strength of Labour, Tory and "Other". The leaflet goes on to state "The Tories are throwing everything at this election - Don't let them win" over a largish photo of what purports to be ten Conservative campaigners, flourishing three Conservative posters, followed by a similarly sized facial close-up of Boris Johnson with a danger sign beside him.

I was rather surprised by this emphasis on the Tories, who are certainly starting in third place, as I would have thought that Labour should be challenging the incumbent Lib Dems, rather than the Tories. Maybe this is a subtle tactic to persuade hesitating Lib Dems to vote Labour, in order to keep the Tories out.

After the strong visual emphasis on the Conservatives, there is a small text at the foot of the first page, stating "And don't forget: The Tories and Lib Dems worked together in Coalition to run the council. When they were in power, they sold off council homes at auction."

Is the Labour tactic to dramatise the menace of the Tories, whilst downplaying the very existence of the Lib Dems in Fortune Green?

Or maybe polling is indicating that the Conservatives are a real threat in Fortune Green?

It is a very typical Labour tactic to pretend they are fighting the Tories even when a Lib Dem councillor is standing for re-election. The Tories do the same.

It is the sort of thing you do if you think the Labour Council is unpopular, but not as unpopular as the evil Tories.

[andrew111]

Is this misfortune Green for the eponymous Party?

[timrollpickering]

Jul 19, 2021 17:10:25 GMT andrew111 said:

It is a very typical Labour tactic to pretend they are fighting the Tories even when a Lib Dem councillor is standing for re-election. The Tories do the same.

It is the sort of thing you do if you think the Labour Council is unpopular, but not as unpopular as the evil Tories.

As opposed to a party that digs out any old figures (often displayed in a distorted format) to present themselves as the challengers with the claim that another party "CAN'T WIN HERE"?

[Foggy]

Jul 19, 2021 17:10:25 GMT andrew111 said:

Jul 19, 2021 10:38:45 GMT listener said:

Fortune Green (Camden)

A friend of mine has been keeping me up to date with the campaign in Fortune Green, where the Lib Dems are defending their sole remaining seat (the result of a strong personal vote for the veteran retiring councillor, Flick Rea). The ward was comfortably Lib Dem for at last three elections, until their vote collapsed to Labour in 2014. My friend was canvassed by the Lib Dems even before the by-election was called and has received two further visits since.

He has now sent me the Labour Party leaflet (two sides of A3), which states "The Tories are targeting Fortune Green. The Tories came second in the May 2021 election. Your vote can keep Fortune Green Labour", followed immediately by a coloured bar chart showing the voting strength of Labour, Tory and "Other". The leaflet goes on to state "The Tories are throwing everything at this election - Don't let them win" over a largish photo of what purports to be ten Conservative campaigners, flourishing three Conservative posters, followed by a similarly sized facial close-up of Boris Johnson with a danger sign beside him.

I was rather surprised by this emphasis on the Tories, who are certainly starting in third place, as I would have thought that Labour should be challenging the incumbent Lib Dems, rather than the Tories. Maybe this is a subtle tactic to persuade hesitating Lib Dems to vote Labour, in order to keep the Tories out.

After the strong visual emphasis on the Conservatives, there is a small text at the foot of the first page, stating "And don't forget: The Tories and Lib Dems worked together in Coalition to run the council. When they were in power, they sold off council homes at auction."

Is the Labour tactic to dramatise the menace of the Tories, whilst downplaying the very existence of the Lib Dems in Fortune Green?

Or maybe polling is indicating that the Conservatives are a real threat in Fortune Green?

It is a very typical Labour tactic to pretend they are fighting the Tories even when a Lib Dem councillor is standing for re-election. The Tories do the same.

They pretend they're fighting themselves?? 

[The Bishop]

At times there's not much pretence about it tbf.

[andrew111]

Jul 19, 2021 23:38:21 GMT timrollpickering said:

Jul 19, 2021 17:10:25 GMT andrew111 said:

It is a very typical Labour tactic to pretend they are fighting the Tories even when a Lib Dem councillor is standing for re-election. The Tories do the same.

It is the sort of thing you do if you think the Labour Council is unpopular, but not as unpopular as the evil Tories.

As opposed to a party that digs out any old figures (often displayed in a distorted format) to present themselves as the challengers with the claim that another party "CAN'T WIN HERE"?

Where I am the agent the Party that does that is the Tories, who in 2019 went back to 2015 as "the last time this seat was fought" rather than 2018 when they came 3rd

[wallington]

With regards to Staines, I have received at least 3 come and help emails from the London Green Party over the last few weeks (yes, it's obviously not in London, but close and easy to get to for some). So, they seem to throwing a lot at it in order to hold the seat, I with no Labour or Lib Dem a hold seems the most likely outcome. But just a general note, the Greens seem to be getting its act together a bit with how they go about fighting (more winnable) council by-elections. Something they have always been a bit crap at in general. I note regional parties seem to be really improving with regards to coordinating active members and generally publicising things. I imagine this is perhaps down to the influence of West Midlands and Chris Williams? Perhaps active members here can shed a bit of light on this.

[greenchristian]

Jul 20, 2021 13:44:43 GMT wallington said:

With regards to Staines, I have received at least 3 come and help emails from the London Green Party over the last few weeks (yes, it's obviously not in London, but close and easy to get to for some). So, they seem to throwing a lot at it in order to hold the seat, I with no Labour or Lib Dem a hold seems the most likely outcome. But just a general note, the Greens seem to be getting its act together a bit with how they go about fighting (more winnable) council by-elections. Something they have always been a bit crap at in general. I note regional parties seem to be really improving with regards to coordinating active members and generally publicising things. I imagine this is perhaps down to the influence of West Midlands and Chris Williams? Perhaps active members here can shed a bit of light on this.

Your imagination is pretty much correct. Obviously the whole party has now adopted what used to be called the "West Midlands model" of regional working and Chris Williams is now the national head of elections. By-elections are still a work in progress, since we rarely put up a real campaign unless the by-election happens to be in an existing target ward. Though obviously there are a lot more target wards than there used to be.

[carlton43]

Jul 20, 2021 12:59:19 GMT andrew111 said:

Jul 19, 2021 23:38:21 GMT timrollpickering said:

As opposed to a party that digs out any old figures (often displayed in a distorted format) to present themselves as the challengers with the claim that another party "CAN'T WIN HERE"?

Where I am the agent the Party that does that is the Tories, who in 2019 went back to 2015 as "the last time this seat was fought" rather than 2018 when they came 3rd

That is awful.

I know that the LDs would never stoop to that type of tactic.

[andrew111]

Jul 20, 2021 14:44:40 GMT carlton43 said:

Jul 20, 2021 12:59:19 GMT andrew111 said:

Where I am the agent the Party that does that is the Tories, who in 2019 went back to 2015 as "the last time this seat was fought" rather than 2018 when they came 3rd

That is awful.

I know that the LDs would never stoop to that type of tactic.

Of course we would. All Parties do. It is just tedious that this is constantly raised as an issue. But Lib Dems use bar charts etc more because tactical truth has to be established, otherwise people vote without thinking, which is what Lab and Con rely on

[andrew111]

Jul 19, 2021 10:51:42 GMT The Bishop said:

Though if the Tories did finish second in the mayoral race, it is surely legitimate to mention that? Its not like its "canvass returns" or similar.

I am sure we are emphasising "Tories can't win here" which is objectively true in local elections based on the data in this thread. Labour are just trying to muddy the water.