Lagan Valley

[Merseymike]

Sorcha Eastwood, the Alliance candidate, is from the small Catholic community in Lisburn - I think that would make quite an impact if she is elected as this is one of the most Protestant constituencies in Northern Ireland

[Adam in Stroud]

Jun 22, 2021 19:52:34 GMT relique said:

Will the nationalists stand ? They didn't in North Down and East Belfast last time when they smelt unionist blood. They took close to 3,000 votes in 2019.

It could go a long way helping Alliance take it from the DUP

I'd suggest the last thing the Alliance want is to be perceived as in any sort of alliance with SF. (Especially if Merseymike is correct about Sorcha being a Catholic, as her name suggests). SDLP might be different.

As an outsider, it looks to me that it is going to be tricky here, due to an apparently strong UUP candidate. First step for Alliance is to squeeze the UUP vote hard (and vice versa). Bringing over nationalists will be key too (and clearly Alliance much better placed to do that than UUP) but you don't need them to stand down for that.

[finsobruce]

Jun 22, 2021 20:48:03 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jun 22, 2021 19:52:34 GMT relique said:

Will the nationalists stand ? They didn't in North Down and East Belfast last time when they smelt unionist blood. They took close to 3,000 votes in 2019.

It could go a long way helping Alliance take it from the DUP

I'd suggest the last thing the Alliance want is to be perceived as in any sort of alliance with SF. (Especially if Merseymike is correct about Sorcha being a Catholic, as her name suggests). SDLP might be different.

As an outsider, it looks to me that it is going to be tricky here, due to an apparently strong UUP candidate. First step for Alliance is to squeeze the UUP vote hard (and vice versa). Bringing over nationalists will be key too (and clearly Alliance much better placed to do that than UUP) but you don't need them to stand down for that.

She has already been there...

www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/02/21/news/sorcha-eastwood-to-receive-substantial-five-figure-sum-from-former-dup-representative-1848162/

[Merseymike]

Jun 22, 2021 20:48:03 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jun 22, 2021 19:52:34 GMT relique said:

Will the nationalists stand ? They didn't in North Down and East Belfast last time when they smelt unionist blood. They took close to 3,000 votes in 2019.

It could go a long way helping Alliance take it from the DUP

I'd suggest the last thing the Alliance want is to be perceived as in any sort of alliance with SF. (Especially if Merseymike is correct about Sorcha being a Catholic, as her name suggests). SDLP might be different.

As an outsider, it looks to me that it is going to be tricky here, due to an apparently strong UUP candidate. First step for Alliance is to squeeze the UUP vote hard (and vice versa). Bringing over nationalists will be key too (and clearly Alliance much better placed to do that than UUP) but you don't need them to stand down for that.

Well it didn't stop Alliance winning North Down which is also a middle class Protestant seat. Both nationalist parties didn't stand in 2019 and Alliance won.
I suppose they had an MP considered liberal in NI terms in Lady Hermon before.

[CatholicLeft]

The SDLP are unlikely to stand aside as they have a hard won MLA seat to defend and won't want to just hand their votes over to the Alliance Party. I know that Northern Irish voters are more sophisticated and used to voting differently in different elections, the SDLP are unlikely to take the chance.
Also, bear in mind that Paula Bradshaw did not stand aside in Belfast South for Claire Hanna, but it didn't matter as the voters decided but she managed to hold most of the Alliance Party vote.

[stb12]

Does strike me that people are maybe being a bit over optimistic about Alliance’s chances now.

The DUP are in a mess but they’ve come back from awkward places before

[stb12]

Jun 22, 2021 21:21:06 GMT CatholicLeft said:

The SDLP are unlikely to stand aside as they have a hard won MLA seat to defend and won't want to just hand their votes over to the Alliance Party. I know that Northern Irish voters are more sophisticated and used to voting differently in different elections, the SDLP are unlikely to take the chance.
Also, bear in mind that Paula Bradshaw did not stand aside in Belfast South for Claire Hanna, but it didn't matter as the voters decided but she managed to hold most of the Alliance Party vote.

It’s also worth remembering that the pacts that came about were anti-Brexit rather than anti-unionist, that was the only reason the SDLP broke the long standing policy of not standing aside for an abstentionist party.

That would be a bit redundant now with Brexit having happened

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 22, 2021 21:28:52 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 22, 2021 21:21:06 GMT CatholicLeft said:

The SDLP are unlikely to stand aside as they have a hard won MLA seat to defend and won't want to just hand their votes over to the Alliance Party. I know that Northern Irish voters are more sophisticated and used to voting differently in different elections, the SDLP are unlikely to take the chance.
Also, bear in mind that Paula Bradshaw did not stand aside in Belfast South for Claire Hanna, but it didn't matter as the voters decided but she managed to hold most of the Alliance Party vote.

It’s also worth remembering that the pacts that came about were anti-Brexit rather than anti-unionist, that was the only reason the SDLP broke the long standing policy of not standing aside for an abstentionist party.

That would be a bit redundant now with Brexit having happened

Spot on.

[johnloony]

There was a 17% swing directly from DUP to Alliance in 2019, which suggests to me that what is left of the DUP vote us relatively solid, and can’t be expected to swing again in much greater numbers beyond what it has already done.

If the ordinary unionist voters are unhappy about the internal kerfuffles of the DUP, they are more likely to switch to the UUP or TUV or whichever Independent / Other Unionist candidate emerges, ratythan to the Alliance Party. If they can’t decide which, and if there are multiple Unionist candidates to choose from, the Alliance Party could sneak in by accident on a low share of the vote, but only if the unionist vote is relatively evenly split 2 or 3 ways.

My gut instinct is that by the time the by-election happens, the Poots fiasco will have faded into ancient history and the voters will elect a DUP MP, perhaps by a margin of 3,000 votes and perhaps on a low turnout.

[Merseymike]

Jun 22, 2021 23:55:33 GMT johnloony said:

There was a 17% swing directly from DUP to Alliance in 2019, which suggests to me that what is left of the DUP vote us relatively solid, and can’t be expected to swing again in much greater numbers beyond what it has already done.

If the ordinary unionist voters are unhappy about the internal kerfuffles of the DUP, they are more likely to switch to the UUP or TUV or whichever Independent / Other Unionist candidate emerges, ratythan to the Alliance Party. If they can’t decide which, and if there are multiple Unionist candidates to choose from, the Alliance Party could sneak in by accident on a low share of the vote, but only if the unionist vote is relatively evenly split 2 or 3 ways.

My gut instinct is that by the time the by-election happens, the Poots fiasco will have faded into ancient history and the voters will elect a DUP MP, perhaps by a margin of 3,000 votes and perhaps on a low turnout.

Voters in North Down who had previously voted for a moderate Unionist switched to Alliance on her retirement. Why wouldn't moderate Unionists choose to do the same in Lagan Valley rather than see the DUP re-elected?

[stb12]

Jun 23, 2021 0:07:58 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 22, 2021 23:55:33 GMT johnloony said:

There was a 17% swing directly from DUP to Alliance in 2019, which suggests to me that what is left of the DUP vote us relatively solid, and can’t be expected to swing again in much greater numbers beyond what it has already done.

If the ordinary unionist voters are unhappy about the internal kerfuffles of the DUP, they are more likely to switch to the UUP or TUV or whichever Independent / Other Unionist candidate emerges, ratythan to the Alliance Party. If they can’t decide which, and if there are multiple Unionist candidates to choose from, the Alliance Party could sneak in by accident on a low share of the vote, but only if the unionist vote is relatively evenly split 2 or 3 ways.

My gut instinct is that by the time the by-election happens, the Poots fiasco will have faded into ancient history and the voters will elect a DUP MP, perhaps by a margin of 3,000 votes and perhaps on a low turnout.

Voters in North Down who had previously voted for a moderate Unionist switched to Alliance on her retirement. Why wouldn't moderate Unionists choose to do the same in Lagan Valley rather than see the DUP re-elected?

They might see the union as under more threat than ever with the protocol and a United Ireland being discussed quite frequently, the DUP are still the main unionist option.

I’m not saying Alliance can’t win but it’s far from as nailed on as some seem to think.

[Merseymike]

Jun 23, 2021 7:20:40 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 23, 2021 0:07:58 GMT Merseymike said:

Voters in North Down who had previously voted for a moderate Unionist switched to Alliance on her retirement. Why wouldn't moderate Unionists choose to do the same in Lagan Valley rather than see the DUP re-elected?

They might see the union as under more threat than ever with the protocol and a United Ireland being discussed quite frequently, the DUP are still the main unionist option.

I’m not saying Alliance can’t win but it’s far from as nailed on as some seem to think.

Of course not.
But the divide between UUP and DUP is also very wide. It was clear in North Down that former UUP voters preferred Alliance to the DUP.

[ibfc]

It's quite possible that the swing in Lagan Valley in 2019 was DUP to UUP and UUP to Alliance in which case any further Alliance gains would have to come from 2017 DUP votes. In North Down, the Alliance votes came from people who hadn't ever voted DUP before. I still think an Alliance win is quite likely on a fairly similar vote to 2019 as the DUP vote will definitely splinter but the dynamics here seem to be different from North Down.

[Merseymike]

Jun 23, 2021 7:34:40 GMT ibfc said:

It's quite possible that the swing in Lagan Valley in 2019 was DUP to UUP and UUP to Alliance in which case any further Alliance gains would have to come from 2017 DUP votes. In North Down, the Alliance votes came from people who hadn't ever voted DUP before. I still think an Alliance win is quite likely on a fairly similar vote to 2019 as the DUP vote will definitely splinter but the dynamics here seem to be different from North Down.

I don't disagree, but they are both middle class, almost all-Protestant seats, and it will be interesting to see what happens.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jun 23, 2021 8:53:45 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 23, 2021 7:34:40 GMT ibfc said:

It's quite possible that the swing in Lagan Valley in 2019 was DUP to UUP and UUP to Alliance in which case any further Alliance gains would have to come from 2017 DUP votes. In North Down, the Alliance votes came from people who hadn't ever voted DUP before. I still think an Alliance win is quite likely on a fairly similar vote to 2019 as the DUP vote will definitely splinter but the dynamics here seem to be different from North Down.

I don't disagree, but they are both middle class, almost all-Protestant seats, and it will be interesting to see what happens.

Which is sorta the Alliance core vote, no? (non-rhetorical)

[Merseymike]

Jun 23, 2021 9:00:16 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jun 23, 2021 8:53:45 GMT Merseymike said:

I don't disagree, but they are both middle class, almost all-Protestant seats, and it will be interesting to see what happens.

Which is sorta the Alliance core vote, no? (non-rhetorical)

And Catholic voters in strongly Protestant areas.

[iang]

Momentum seems to be with Alliance, and not the UUP, and with Alliance established in second and the UUP in third, there's the potential for a classic squeeze. How likely is it that someone like TUV will run and break a chunk from the DUP vote? Sorcha Eastwood is a Lisburn councillor I think. I've already seen Lib Dem MPs (eg Layla Moran) promising to go and help her
The other interesting thing about Sorcha Eastwood was that she was the APNI candidate in Belfast West in 2017 and got married on polling day (presumably this had already been arranged) - and went to vote in her wedding dress!

[stb12]

I get why Alliance’s politics have a lot of appeal considering Northern Ireland’s tendency towards extremes over the years but i still suspect the neutral position on the union May not be entirely sustainable as the question of a United Ireland becomes more real

[elinorhelyn]

Jun 23, 2021 12:29:37 GMT stb12 said:

I get why Alliance’s politics have a lot of appeal considering Northern Ireland’s tendency towards extremes over the years but i still suspect the neutral position on the union May not be entirely sustainable as the question of a United Ireland becomes more real

If so, Alliance should take a moderate non-sectarian unionist stance.That us where they'll get the most votes from, basically usurping the UUP

[stb12]

Jun 23, 2021 15:14:20 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Jun 23, 2021 12:29:37 GMT stb12 said:

I get why Alliance’s politics have a lot of appeal considering Northern Ireland’s tendency towards extremes over the years but i still suspect the neutral position on the union May not be entirely sustainable as the question of a United Ireland becomes more real

If so, Alliance should take a moderate non-sectarian unionist stance.That us where they'll get the most votes from, basically usurping the UUP

That’s what they were founded as wasn’t it?