OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 15:58:04 GMT
I am sure these have been posted somewhere, but I can't find. Does anyone have estimates for London? Obviously some boroughs released ward figures. I'd like to make a shaded map. Also, if Pete Whitehead has the numbers for his excellent map of notional London 2019 Euro election results I could make a shaded map of that too. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 3, 2021 16:40:03 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 3, 2021 16:47:22 GMT
I am sure these have been posted somewhere, but I can't find. Does anyone have estimates for London? Obviously some boroughs released ward figures. I'd like to make a shaded map. Also, if Pete Whitehead has the numbers for his excellent map of notional London 2019 Euro election results I could make a shaded map of that too. I found the numbers but they are in an awkward format (different sheet for each borough) so I am trying to put them together on a single sheet, add percentages etc. which I will be able to send you. The results I have don't entirely match those on the map you found the other day so either I produced a different set of stats which are elsewhere or I made some errors on the map or I used a little artistic license on the map (I think it was that). Obviously the figures will have to be taken in conjunction with an entire salt mine.. |
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 16:47:29 GMT
As far as I can tell this doesn't actually have the ward results. I'll get started with the published ones. |
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 16:48:00 GMT
I am sure these have been posted somewhere, but I can't find. Does anyone have estimates for London? Obviously some boroughs released ward figures. I'd like to make a shaded map. Also, if Pete Whitehead has the numbers for his excellent map of notional London 2019 Euro election results I could make a shaded map of that too. I found the numbers but they are in an awkward format (different sheet for each borough) so I am trying to put them together on a single sheet, add percentages etc. which I will be able to send you. The results I have don't entirely match those on the map you found the other day so either I produced a different set of stats which are elsewhere or I made some errors on the map or I used a little artistic license on the map (I think it was that). Obviously the figures will have to be taken in conjunction with an entire salt mine.. No problem - thanks and look forward to it. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 3, 2021 16:54:07 GMT
As far as I can tell this doesn't actually have the ward results. I'll get started with the published ones. Yes it does I think if you read the article - the BBC did an FOI request and got the results from the councils by individual ward. Hanretty had previous done estimates but he put the data from the BBC into his spreadsheet. Unfortunately some councils deemed this top secret information (!) and didn't supply the data to the BBC and for those we don't have any published data so the best is the estimated data from Hanretty. This at least is how I read the article and the spreadsheet. But apologies if I have got this wrong! |
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 17:04:48 GMT
As far as I can tell this doesn't actually have the ward results. I'll get started with the published ones. Yes it does I think if you read the article - the BBC did an FOI request and got the results from the councils by individual ward. Hanretty had previous done estimates but he put the data from the BBC into his spreadsheet. Unfortunately some councils deemed this top secret information (!) and didn't supply the data to the BBC and for those we don't have any published data so the best is the estimated data from Hanretty. This at least is how I read the article and the spreadsheet. But apologies if I have got this wrong! Do you mean it has Hanretty's ward estimates or the published ward results? (I have the latter.) |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 3, 2021 17:27:35 GMT
Yes it does I think if you read the article - the BBC did an FOI request and got the results from the councils by individual ward. Hanretty had previous done estimates but he put the data from the BBC into his spreadsheet. Unfortunately some councils deemed this top secret information (!) and didn't supply the data to the BBC and for those we don't have any published data so the best is the estimated data from Hanretty. This at least is how I read the article and the spreadsheet. But apologies if I have got this wrong! Do you mean it has Hanretty's ward estimates or the published ward results? (I have the latter.) I don't think Hanretty did ward estimates. He did constituency estimates, and the linked article is his discussion of how accurate these turned out to be once actual ward results were available for certain councils. (Generally, they weren't bad.) It would, I'm sure, be possible to get ward estimates by applying Hanretty's regression at ward level rather than constituency level. NB not all "official" ward results are that accurate, because of postal votes. Calderdale (I know not London) is an example which has been discussed on here before; the postal votes were distributed arbitrarily to the wards, which has the effect of damping the ward by ward variation a bit. So "Calder" (i.e. Hebden Bridge) was probably quite a bit more Remain than that, and Ovenden, Town and Illingworth & Mixenden more Leave, and Luddendenfoot might have just voted Remain. Some sources do have ward estimates, but IIRC the ones I've seen all think Todmorden voted Leave. Unless something very strange happened with those Calderdale postal votes, it didn't. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 3, 2021 17:31:31 GMT
Yes it does I think if you read the article - the BBC did an FOI request and got the results from the councils by individual ward. Hanretty had previous done estimates but he put the data from the BBC into his spreadsheet. Unfortunately some councils deemed this top secret information (!) and didn't supply the data to the BBC and for those we don't have any published data so the best is the estimated data from Hanretty. This at least is how I read the article and the spreadsheet. But apologies if I have got this wrong! Do you mean it has Hanretty's ward estimates or the published ward results? (I have the latter.) I think the article does explain but as I understand it the timeline was: 1. Hanretty did his estimates 2. The BBC did the FOI requests to councils 3. The councils returned the data 4. Unfortunately this was NOT ALL councils. 5. Hanretty updated his spreadsheet with the BBC FOI data - with a column for his original estimate and for the actual data obtained by the BBC - IF provided and a column on what figure to use - i.e. the actual data or if not present his estimate. 6. For SOME councils we have NO data - so the BEST we have is Hanretty's estimate - as the council did NOT provide the data to the BBC under FOI - they were either busy sunning themselves abroad, couldn't be bothered, lost the data, had no interest in election analysis, wanted to annoy psephology nerds (among whom I count myself) or thought it could be used by our mortal enemies to launch a nuclear war. Take your pick - my money is on the last!!!!!! He also says there is a very, very, very (!) minor issue with postal votes but hey read the article and look at the spreadsheet and see whether I have understood this correctly! |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 3, 2021 17:41:58 GMT
OK - I was wrong as I am tired today. !!!!! I did say look at the spreadsheet which I didn't!!!!! I was pretty sure I seen Hanretty's estimates by ward. His estimates do indeed seem to be only by constituency. Sorry!!!! Always triple check!!!!
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 18:25:17 GMT
Here are the published results (most with postals though) Shades: 50-52.5, 52.5-55, 55-57.5, 57.5-60, 60-62.5, 62.5-65, 65-67.5, 67.5-70, 70-72.5, 72.5-75, 75-80, >80 Ashburton, Croydon is a tie (white) ![]()  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 3, 2021 18:28:31 GMT
Here are the published results (most with postals though) Shades: 50-52.5, 52.5-55, 55-57.5, 57.5-60, 60-62.5, 62.5-65, 65-67.5, 67.5-70, 70-72.5, 72.5-75, 75-80, >80 Ashburton, Croydon is a tie (white) ![]() Those Haringey results don't look right at all (your map is right per the results on the spreadsheet - I don't believe those figures can be right) |
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 18:54:26 GMT
Here are the published results (most with postals though) Shades: 50-52.5, 52.5-55, 55-57.5, 57.5-60, 60-62.5, 62.5-65, 65-67.5, 67.5-70, 70-72.5, 72.5-75, 75-80, >80 Ashburton, Croydon is a tie (white) ![]() Those Haringey results don't look right at all (your map is right per the results on the spreadsheet - I don't believe those figures can be right) Why not? Should the central bit of Haringey be more Remain and the western bit slightly less? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 3, 2021 18:57:20 GMT
Those Haringey results don't look right at all (your map is right per the results on the spreadsheet - I don't believe those figures can be right) Why not? Should the central bit of Haringey be more Remain and the western bit slightly less? Not the Western but - the (North) Eastern bit. I don't believe for a minute that the highest Remain vote in Haringey was in Northumberland Park and that it was 20% higher there than in St Anne's |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 3, 2021 19:00:58 GMT
Those Haringey results don't look right at all (your map is right per the results on the spreadsheet - I don't believe those figures can be right) Why not? Should the central bit of Haringey be more Remain and the western bit slightly less? You would expect Tottenham to have voted much less strongly for Remain than somewhere like Wood Green - those western Haringey wards may have had some of the highest Remain votes in the country.
For illustration, a few months ago, I produced my own estimates of the referendum result by ward. They're far from perfect, but they illustrate the point quite nicely. My model gives Leave votes in the 35-40% region for wards like Northumberland Park, Tottenham Hale, and Bruce Grove - and these are the closest results in the borough.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 3, 2021 19:07:23 GMT
Why not? Should the central bit of Haringey be more Remain and the western bit slightly less? You would expect Tottenham to have voted much less strongly for Remain than somewhere like Wood Green - those western Haringey wards may have had some of the highest Remain votes in the country.
For illustration, a few months ago, I produced my own estimates of the referendum result by ward. They're far from perfect, but they illustrate the point quite nicely. My model gives Leave votes in the 35-40% region for wards like Northumberland Park, Tottenham Hale, and Bruce Grove - and these are the closest results in the borough.
I suspect Hanratty's estimates were similar. If you compare his constituency estimates with the 'known result' he had Leave on 18.5% in Hornsey & Wood Green (the lowest figure in the country which would surprise no-one) and 33% in Tottenham. The 'known results' revise those figures to 25% and 24% respectively. I'm sure his original estimates are closer to the truth there than the figures provided by the council. Nor can these discrepancies be accounted for by postal votes nor by mixing up the alphabetical order of the wards due to the 'saints problem'. Frankly it looks like they plucked the figures out of their arse. |
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 19:23:44 GMT
Why not? Should the central bit of Haringey be more Remain and the western bit slightly less? You would expect Tottenham to have voted much less strongly for Remain than somewhere like Wood Green - those western Haringey wards may have had some of the highest Remain votes in the country.
For illustration, a few months ago, I produced my own estimates of the referendum result by ward. They're far from perfect, but they illustrate the point quite nicely. My model gives Leave votes in the 35-40% region for wards like Northumberland Park, Tottenham Hale, and Bruce Grove - and these are the closest results in the borough.
Do you want me to plug your numbers in instead? |
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 19:25:28 GMT
Why not? Should the central bit of Haringey be more Remain and the western bit slightly less? Not the Western but - the (North) Eastern bit. I don't believe for a minute that the highest Remain vote in Haringey was in Northumberland Park and that it was 20% higher there than in St Anne's Fwiw your map for the Euros has the eastern bit red and the western yellow - so that could suggest a higher Remain vote out west or simply affluence (or both). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 3, 2021 19:31:21 GMT
Not the Western but - the (North) Eastern bit. I don't believe for a minute that the highest Remain vote in Haringey was in Northumberland Park and that it was 20% higher there than in St Anne's Fwiw your map for the Euros has the eastern bit red and the western yellow - so that could suggest a higher Remain vote out west or simply affluence (or both). If you mean the 'which party carried which ward' map, that suggests a higher Lib Dem vote in the Western wards of Haringey which would not be the most stunning revelation. But yes you would expect the Remain vote to be higher in those wards too and I can see no reason why it would be so much lower in Hornsey that in the neigbouring wards or that the Remain share in Crouch End was lower than in White Hart Lane! |
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 19:42:01 GMT
I am sure these have been posted somewhere, but I can't find. Does anyone have estimates for London? Obviously some boroughs released ward figures. I'd like to make a shaded map. Also, if Pete Whitehead has the numbers for his excellent map of notional London 2019 Euro election results I could make a shaded map of that too. I found the numbers but they are in an awkward format (different sheet for each borough) so I am trying to put them together on a single sheet, add percentages etc. which I will be able to send you. The results I have don't entirely match those on the map you found the other day so either I produced a different set of stats which are elsewhere or I made some errors on the map or I used a little artistic license on the map (I think it was that). Obviously the figures will have to be taken in conjunction with an entire salt mine.. I don't mind you sending them as it is, by the way. (Sorry if I sound impatient.) |
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