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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 3, 2021 19:47:50 GMT
You would expect Tottenham to have voted much less strongly for Remain than somewhere like Wood Green - those western Haringey wards may have had some of the highest Remain votes in the country.
For illustration, a few months ago, I produced my own estimates of the referendum result by ward. They're far from perfect, but they illustrate the point quite nicely. My model gives Leave votes in the 35-40% region for wards like Northumberland Park, Tottenham Hale, and Bruce Grove - and these are the closest results in the borough.
Do you want me to plug your numbers in instead? You can try, if you'd like. However, there are some boroughs which you won't be able to do - for example Tower Hamlets, where I used the 2014 boundaries but your map uses those from 2010.
I should also stress that they are estimates - they add up and generally make sense, but looking at the true figures I got one ward wrong by around 10% (Fairfield, Croydon) and one ward wrong by 24% (Osterley and Spring Grove, Hounslow). There may be other wards with similar errors, but if these are in boroughs where ward-level data was not available, they might not be spotted.
If you'd still like them after that caveat, then I'll put them up in a bit (just need to have my tea first).
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 19:55:36 GMT
Do you want me to plug your numbers in instead? You can try, if you'd like. However, there are some boroughs which you won't be able to do - for example Tower Hamlets, where I used the 2014 boundaries but your map uses those from 2010.
I should also stress that they are estimates - they add up and generally make sense, but looking at the true figures I got one ward wrong by around 10% (Fairfield, Croydon) and one ward wrong by 24% (Osterley and Spring Grove, Hounslow). There may be other wards with similar errors, but if these are in boroughs where ward-level data was not available, they might not be spotted.
If you'd still like them after that caveat, then I'll put them up in a bit (just need to have my tea first).
Sure - it's probably the best estimate we have. Enjoy tea. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 3, 2021 20:09:34 GMT
You would expect Tottenham to have voted much less strongly for Remain than somewhere like Wood Green - those western Haringey wards may have had some of the highest Remain votes in the country.
For illustration, a few months ago, I produced my own estimates of the referendum result by ward. They're far from perfect, but they illustrate the point quite nicely. My model gives Leave votes in the 35-40% region for wards like Northumberland Park, Tottenham Hale, and Bruce Grove - and these are the closest results in the borough.
I suspect Hanratty's estimates were similar. If you compare his constituency estimates with the 'known result' he had Leave on 18.5% in Hornsey & Wood Green (the lowest figure in the country which would surprise no-one) and 33% in Tottenham. The 'known results' revise those figures to 25% and 24% respectively. I'm sure his original estimates are closer to the truth there than the figures provided by the council. Nor can these discrepancies be accounted for by postal votes nor by mixing up the alphabetical order of the wards due to the 'saints problem'. Frankly it looks like they plucked the figures out of their arse. There is also a commentator on Mark Pack's website saying that the BBC figures are different to those published in his local newspaper so the BBC may unfortunately have mixed up some wards in transcribing the results - but the comment doesn't say in which area. www.markpack.org.uk/148288/ward-level-voting-data-european-referendum/ This is though likely to be the Wirral as there is someone with the same name as making the comment form Wirral Lib Dems. But of course the BBC may have made errors in other areas as well. Via the footnotes from Wikipedia - there is also a scientific paper with a model other from Hanretty at academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article/32/92/601/4459491 which is in the public domain and which people may have seen but if they haven't may or may not help people here - and in general is quite an interesting read if you are a PN like me! I have had a skim and from memory - although my memory and brain aren't working very well today! - and while as always correlation is not causation - it says that education attainment accounts for over 60% of the referendum leave vote and they identify some further 19 variables that had an effect on it but some 6 or so account for the great bulk of leave vote (that's inaccurate but read the paper for the precise details) - not all of these variables are available at ward level (but quite a lot might be - or enough to have a stab) which may well be why Hanretty didn't estimate them for wards! . As well as obv. likely to get greater much errors individually which average themselves out over a bigger area. This paper also looks at another issue. If you remember there was great rainfall on the evening of the referendum and trains out of London were cancelled. They conclude that this did affect turnout in somewhat more Remain voting area in commuter areas outside London and so would presumably have reduced the Remain vote but not by enough to change the result. Via Mark Pack's website there is a further scientific paper from Hanretty at www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17457289.2017.1287081 which isn't available free in which he estimated referendum voting by local authority - but he might provide a copy on request or the figures or the paper may be available via your local library as they I believe can have online access to scientific papers or may be available in print somewhere. --- To further factcheck myself further the BBC says that electoral registration offices etc. are NOT subject to the FOI but may - or may not provide data on request. So may it was only a *small* nuclear war they were frightened of causing! (or the beach was inviting or they wanted to through out all the "useless" bits of paper). |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 3, 2021 20:14:06 GMT
As a thought - someone could ask the Beeb for the originals of their info - either all of it to check - or for those areas where they think it's wrong or indeed the councils as if it was sent by email - emails tend to stick around for ever - and I think the BBC IS subject to FOI but whether this comes under it.....
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 3, 2021 20:20:58 GMT
I suspect Hanratty's estimates were similar. If you compare his constituency estimates with the 'known result' he had Leave on 18.5% in Hornsey & Wood Green (the lowest figure in the country which would surprise no-one) and 33% in Tottenham. The 'known results' revise those figures to 25% and 24% respectively. I'm sure his original estimates are closer to the truth there than the figures provided by the council. Nor can these discrepancies be accounted for by postal votes nor by mixing up the alphabetical order of the wards due to the 'saints problem'. Frankly it looks like they plucked the figures out of their arse. There is also a commentator on Mark Pack's website saying that the BBC figures are different to those published in his local newspaper so the BBC may unfortunately have mixed up some wards in transcribing the results - but the comment doesn't say in which area. www.markpack.org.uk/148288/ward-level-voting-data-european-referendum/ This is though likely to be the Wirral as there is someone with the same name as making the comment form Wirral Lib Dems. But of course the BBC may have made errors in other areas as well. Just from the first paragraph I can see they mixed up Prenton and Rock Ferry. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 3, 2021 21:15:50 GMT
I requested the Calderdale figures from Electoral Services. They stated (politely but definitely) that they did not possess any figures. I ought to have retained the email. Figures then appear via the BBC website. There is local scepticism about the figures. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 3, 2021 21:23:03 GMT
You can try, if you'd like. However, there are some boroughs which you won't be able to do - for example Tower Hamlets, where I used the 2014 boundaries but your map uses those from 2010.
I should also stress that they are estimates - they add up and generally make sense, but looking at the true figures I got one ward wrong by around 10% (Fairfield, Croydon) and one ward wrong by 24% (Osterley and Spring Grove, Hounslow). There may be other wards with similar errors, but if these are in boroughs where ward-level data was not available, they might not be spotted.
If you'd still like them after that caveat, then I'll put them up in a bit (just need to have my tea first).
Sure - it's probably the best estimate we have. Enjoy tea. Link should be here: link
There are two sheets - the first gives results for everywhere in England (it'd be rude not to share all of my estimates, after all), but you'll probably be more interested in the second, which just has the data for London. Bear in mind if a borough has actual figures, then you should use them instead of my estimates.
As a bit of a health warning, please do not use the listed figures for the City of London. The wards in the City are tiny, and therefore most of them have no proper census data, with the others tending to be a horribly mangled mess. You can probably conclude Portsoken was a bit more Leave voting than the rest, but anything more than that is folly. I'd just merge all of the wards and shade the area with the colour for 22.5%-25% Leave. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 4, 2021 6:53:16 GMT
Curious. Birmingham did publish its results by ward and they are quite different from your estimates. As a simple example from my own ward, Birmingham said it was 77.0% Remain (the highest in Birmingham) while your figure is 71.6% with three other Birmingham wards higher.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 4, 2021 7:10:03 GMT
Curious. Birmingham did publish its results by ward and they are quite different from your estimates. As a simple example from my own ward, Birmingham said it was 77.0% Remain (the highest in Birmingham) while your figure is 71.6% with three other Birmingham wards higher. That's very interesting - another large error is found in Birmingham's most Leave voting ward of Shard End (predicted 66% vs actual 76%). My model does seem to reduce the variation between different wards in the same local authority, though generally it gets the overall trend right. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 4, 2021 7:33:02 GMT
Curious. Birmingham did publish its results by ward and they are quite different from your estimates. As a simple example from my own ward, Birmingham said it was 77.0% Remain (the highest in Birmingham) while your figure is 71.6% with three other Birmingham wards higher. That's very interesting - another large error is found in Birmingham's most Leave voting ward of Shard End (predicted 66% vs actual 76%). My model does seem to reduce the variation between different wards in the same local authority, though generally it gets the overall trend right. Could the differences be accounted for by treatment of postal votes? |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 4, 2021 7:38:46 GMT
That's very interesting - another large error is found in Birmingham's most Leave voting ward of Shard End (predicted 66% vs actual 76%). My model does seem to reduce the variation between different wards in the same local authority, though generally it gets the overall trend right. Could the differences be accounted for by treatment of postal votes? If anything, I think that makes it worse! Postal votes are generally mixed between wards and so the true figures would have even bigger disparities within local authorities. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 4, 2021 8:13:39 GMT
I requested the Calderdale figures from Electoral Services. They stated (politely but definitely) that they did not possess any figures. I ought to have retained the email. Figures then appear via the BBC website. There is local scepticism about the figures. What sort of scepticism, e.g. do you think Todmorden actually did vote Leave? I note bjornhattan's figures have it so, but very narrowly. In Sheffield AIUI they didn't even count by ward, but by arbitrary pairs of wards, so no actual ward figures have ever existed even ignoring the postal vote issue. The various estimates look plausible enough in terms of which wards voted Remain, but LeanTossup has the Ecclesfield wards and Stocksbridge remarkably close. |
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 4, 2021 8:20:24 GMT
Interesting - I did a bit of searching around the Internet for Haringey ward results - there was a Haringey council site with the results for the borough at large, and then another Haringey site which required a password to enter. (Perhaps this has the ward results.)
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 4, 2021 8:22:17 GMT
Sure - it's probably the best estimate we have. Enjoy tea. Link should be here: link
There are two sheets - the first gives results for everywhere in England (it'd be rude not to share all of my estimates, after all), but you'll probably be more interested in the second, which just has the data for London. Bear in mind if a borough has actual figures, then you should use them instead of my estimates.
As a bit of a health warning, please do not use the listed figures for the City of London. The wards in the City are tiny, and therefore most of them have no proper census data, with the others tending to be a horribly mangled mess. You can probably conclude Portsoken was a bit more Leave voting than the rest, but anything more than that is folly. I'd just merge all of the wards and shade the area with the colour for 22.5%-25% Leave. Great - thanks. I'll use your Haringey figures and shade the City in the same colour everywhere. Some of your Haringey results are extremely high for Remain - but I have only one colour for >80%, so that won't really show up. Your Westminster results seem about right - though what factors have you put in for the ethnic minority vote? My impression is that the black vote was very Remain. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 4, 2021 9:01:05 GMT
I requested the Calderdale figures from Electoral Services. They stated (politely but definitely) that they did not possess any figures. I ought to have retained the email. Figures then appear via the BBC website. There is local scepticism about the figures. What sort of scepticism, e.g. do you think Todmorden actually did vote Leave? I note bjornhattan's figures have it so, but very narrowly. In Sheffield AIUI they didn't even count by ward, but by arbitrary pairs of wards, so no actual ward figures have ever existed even ignoring the postal vote issue. The various estimates look plausible enough in terms of which wards voted Remain, but LeanTossup has the Ecclesfield wards and Stocksbridge remarkably close. More Ludd Foot voting Remain and a larger Remain margin in Skircoat. Odd that figures appeared after the denial. |
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 4, 2021 11:02:57 GMT
London EU referendum by ward (published results + bjornhattan estimates) Shades: 50-52.5, 52.5-55, 55-57.5, 57.5-60, 60-62.5, 62.5-65, 65-67.5, 67.5-70, 70-72.5, 72.5-75, 75-80, >80  |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 4, 2021 11:53:29 GMT
My memory from sampling the ballot boxes in Westminster is that there wasn't that much difference by polling district - they were all between 60-80% remain.
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Jun 4, 2021 12:12:27 GMT
My memory from sampling the ballot boxes in Westminster is that there wasn't that much difference by polling district - they were all between 60-80% remain. The lowest one from Bjorn's estimates is Church Street at 56%. Out of curiosity, are there any figures/rough details for Westminster which you remember? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 4, 2021 13:57:32 GMT
The Serpentine voted Leave evidently
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2021 4:28:05 GMT
London EU referendum by ward (published results + bjornhattan estimates) Shades: 50-52.5, 52.5-55, 55-57.5, 57.5-60, 60-62.5, 62.5-65, 65-67.5, 67.5-70, 70-72.5, 72.5-75, 75-80, >80 Do you have names of sites in which one can color maps by ward? |
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