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Post by greenhert on Jun 17, 2021 23:43:56 GMT
NORFOLK Sewell Brociek-Coulton, Julie Dawn (Labour Party) 1,132 Holmes, Adrian St John (The Green Party) 1,005 Jones, Simon Mark (The Conservative Party Candidate) 320 Arundell, Helen Bernadette (Liberal Democrat Focus Team) 40 Fascinating that we get different winners in these two elections. Do we think the ballot paper order could have had an effect here? No, it would not, not with margins as high as 127 votes and 159 votes respectively; turnout is higher for county council divisions given how significant responsibilities are and this, along with the size of county council divisions, tends to favour the larger parties of Conservative and Labour. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 17, 2021 23:43:58 GMT
MID DEVON Upper Culm BARTLETT, James David Lloyd (Conservative) 361 RITCHIE, Sean (Liberal Democrat) 346 RICH, Adam Blake (Green) 74 HUTTON, Fiona (Labour) 31 Vote Green get Tory |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 17, 2021 23:47:26 GMT
Fascinating that we get different winners in these two elections. Do we think the ballot paper order could have had an effect here? No, it would not, not with margins as high as 127 votes and 159 votes respectively; turnout is higher for county council divisions given how significant responsibilities are and this, along with the size of county council divisions, tends to favour the larger parties of Conservative and Labour. The boundaries were the same for both elections.Turnout unlikely to be a factor when both elections are being held on same day! |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 17, 2021 23:59:24 GMT
No, it would not, not with margins as high as 127 votes and 159 votes respectively; turnout is higher for county council divisions given how significant responsibilities are and this, along with the size of county council divisions, tends to favour the larger parties of Conservative and Labour. The boundaries were the same for both elections.Turnout unlikely to be a factor when both elections are being held on same day! Yes I accept your argument based on your local knowledge of personalities , level of campaign, etc, but the argument from greenhert above appears to be nonsense in this context, though his points might apply elsewhere. I still think there might be an element of ballot order bias, given it's the one obvious difference between the two ballot paers, but maybe it might account for a handful of votes in the "wrong" box. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 18, 2021 0:01:55 GMT
The boundaries were the same for both elections.Turnout unlikely to be a factor when both elections are being held on same day! Yes I accept your argument based on your local knowledge of personalities , level of campaign, etc, but the argument from greenhert above appears to be nonsense in this context, though his points might apply elsewhere. I still think there might be an element of ballot order bias, given it's the one obvious difference between the two ballot paers, but maybe it might account for a handful of votes in the "wrong" box. I was arguing a general point. |
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Post by phil156 on Jun 18, 2021 0:03:08 GMT
To my reckoning we just waiting for Tanbridge now
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Post by greenhert on Jun 18, 2021 0:03:11 GMT
MID DEVON Upper Culm BARTLETT, James David Lloyd (Conservative) 361 RITCHIE, Sean (Liberal Democrat) 346 RICH, Adam Blake (Green) 74 HUTTON, Fiona (Labour) 31 Vote Green get Tory You might as well claim that Labour split the Liberal Democrats' vote in this by-election on the grounds that their otherwise miserable vote total was more than double the Conservatives' slim majority of 15. Both claims are without any real merit. |
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Post by phil156 on Jun 18, 2021 0:13:34 GMT
Countermanded Elections
Kent: Elham Valley - result awaited | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | | Row 2 column 1 | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | | Row 3 column 1 | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | | Row 4 column 1 | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | | Row 5 column 1 | Row 5 column 2 | Row 5 column 3 | Row 5 column 4 | | UKIP |
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| -12.8% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -10.3% | | Total votes | Row 8 column 2 |
| Row 8 column 4 |
Swing: Council now: 61 Conservative, 7 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 1 Swale Independent, 1 Resident, 1 vacancy Norfolk: Sewell - Labour hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Labour | 1,132 | 45.3% | -14.2% | +8.6% | +18.6% | | Green | 1,005 | 40.2% | +29.0% | +11.4% | +7.6% | | Conservative | 320 | 12.8% | -4.6% | -1.9% | -9.0% | | Liberal Democrat | 40 | 1.6% | -5.8% | -1.3% | -17.2% | | UKIP |
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| -4.4% | -16.8% |
| | Total votes | 2,497 |
| 93% | 114% | 99% |
Swing: Labour to Green 21½% since 2017 and 1½% since 2013 but 5½% Green to Labour since 2009 Council now: 57 Conservative, 12 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green, 3 Independent, 1 vacancy Norwich: Sewell - Green gain from Labour| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Green | 1,154 | 46.1% | -12.8% | +17.0% | | Labour | 995 | 39.7% | +17.9% | -12.0% | | Conservative | 316 | 12.6% | +1.1% | +0.9% | | Liberal Democrat | 39 | 1.6% | -6.1% | -5.9% | | Total votes | 2,504 |
| 91% | 104% |
Swing: Labour to Green 15½% / 14½% since 2019 Council now: 26 Labour, 10 Green, 3 Liberal Democrat Tandridge: Felbridge - result awaited | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | | Row 2 column 1 | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | Row 2 column 5 | Row 2 column 6 | | Row 3 column 1 | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | Row 3 column 5 | Row 3 column 6 | | Row 4 column 1 | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | Row 4 column 5 | Row 4 column 6 | | Row 5 column 1 | Row 5 column 2 | Row 5 column 3 | Row 5 column 4 | Row 5 column 5 | Row 5 column 6 | | Row 6 column 1 | Row 6 column 2 | Row 6 column 3 | Row 6 column 4 | Row 6 column 5 | Row 6 column 6 | | Previous Independent |
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| -23.3% |
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| | Green |
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| -11.7% |
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| -7.8% | | Total votes | Row 10 column 2 |
| Row 10 column 4 | Row 10 column 5 | Row 10 column 6 |
Swing: Council now: 16 Independents & OLRG Alliance, 14 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent Group, 1 vacancy |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 18, 2021 0:19:54 GMT
You might as well claim that Labour split the Liberal Democrats' vote in this by-election on the grounds that their otherwise miserable vote total was more than double the Conservatives' slim majority of 15. Both claims are without any real merit. Well, the Greens stood for the first time and got 9%. Labour vote went down. So obviously people who exercised their right to vote Green could have changed the result and what I said is perfectly accurate. However the previous election was split and there was a swing from Lib Dem to Tory, with personal votes involved |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 18, 2021 0:21:51 GMT
Do we know for sure that Tandridge is counting tonight?
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Post by justin124 on Jun 18, 2021 0:30:07 GMT
Countermanded Elections
Kent: Elham Valley - result awaited | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | | Row 2 column 1 | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | | Row 3 column 1 | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | | Row 4 column 1 | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | | Row 5 column 1 | Row 5 column 2 | Row 5 column 3 | Row 5 column 4 | | UKIP |
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| -12.8% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -10.3% | | Total votes | Row 8 column 2 |
| Row 8 column 4 |
Swing: Council now: 61 Conservative, 7 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 1 Swale Independent, 1 Resident, 1 vacancy Norfolk: Sewell - Labour hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Labour | 1,132 | 45.3% | -14.2% | +8.6% | +18.6% | | Green | 1,005 | 40.2% | +29.0% | +11.4% | +7.6% | | Conservative | 320 | 12.8% | -4.6% | -1.9% | -9.0% | | Liberal Democrat | 40 | 1.6% | -5.8% | -1.3% | -17.2% | | UKIP |
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| -4.4% | -16.8% |
| | Total votes | 2,497 |
| 93% | 114% | 99% |
Swing: Labour to Green 21½% since 2017 and 1½% since 2013 but 5½% Green to Labour since 2009 Council now: 57 Conservative, 12 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green, 3 Independent, 1 vacancy Norwich: Sewell - Green gain from Labour| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Green | 1,154 | 46.1% | -12.8% | +17.0% | | Labour | 995 | 39.7% | +17.9% | -12.0% | | Conservative | 316 | 12.6% | +1.1% | +0.9% | | Liberal Democrat | 39 | 1.6% | -6.1% | -5.9% | | Total votes | 2,504 |
| 91% | 104% |
Swing: Labour to Green 15½% / 14½% since 2019 Council now: 26 Labour, 10 Green, 3 Liberal Democrat Tandridge: Felbridge - result awaited | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | | Row 2 column 1 | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | Row 2 column 5 | Row 2 column 6 | | Row 3 column 1 | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | Row 3 column 5 | Row 3 column 6 | | Row 4 column 1 | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | Row 4 column 5 | Row 4 column 6 | | Row 5 column 1 | Row 5 column 2 | Row 5 column 3 | Row 5 column 4 | Row 5 column 5 | Row 5 column 6 | | Row 6 column 1 | Row 6 column 2 | Row 6 column 3 | Row 6 column 4 | Row 6 column 5 | Row 6 column 6 | | Previous Independent |
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| -23.3% |
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| -11.7% |
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| -7.8% | | Total votes | Row 10 column 2 |
| Row 10 column 4 | Row 10 column 5 | Row 10 column 6 |
Swing: Council now: 16 Independents & OLRG Alliance, 14 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent Group, 1 vacancy The 'since 2019' vote share changes for Labour and Greens for Norwich Sewell need to be reversed! |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 18, 2021 6:07:37 GMT
Fascinating that we get different winners in these two elections. Do we think the ballot paper order could have had an effect here? I live in this ward. Labour's County Council candidate is well known and likely to have a personal vote. Yes - this can be seen from the 2019 district results where she finished 300 votes ahead of her 2 running mates. That was always likely to be the biggest difference between the 2 results. |
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froome
Green
Posts: 4,549
Member is Online
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Post by froome on Jun 18, 2021 7:28:39 GMT
I live in this ward. Labour's County Council candidate is well known and likely to have a personal vote. Yes - this can be seen from the 2019 district results where she finished 300 votes ahead of her 2 running mates. That was always likely to be the biggest difference between the 2 results. Indeed. What the two Sewell results also show is that here, as in many other cities, there is a large overlap between Green and Labour voters, and when given the opportunity to have more than one vote, they will happily split their votes between the parties. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 18, 2021 8:24:58 GMT
Almost as close as Old Crow.... |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 18, 2021 9:03:13 GMT
The Tandridge result hasn’t been commented on. The two independents doing very well and getting 73% between them. The Conservatives dropping 43%. I note that the winning Indy came across as very embedded in the community and the Conservatives had a young candidate. I thought this might be Home Counties decent territory for the Lib Dem’s as well but they managed 12 votes- although I did note that the Lib Dem candidate lived some way away.
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322 
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Post by wallington on Jun 18, 2021 9:43:19 GMT
I recall the Greens winning the Sewell county division back in 2009 while I was living in Norwich (along with Mile Cross). It was a ward they never really fully targeted at the time, due to it not being in Norwich South, despite it being demographically better for them than University Ward, which they would throw a lot of resources at during this period.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jun 18, 2021 9:49:05 GMT
Yay - Plaid Cymru win in tightly fought contest in Caerffili  |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
Posts: 3,201
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Post by Sandy on Jun 18, 2021 10:23:59 GMT
East Garioch Con Gain
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 18, 2021 10:28:02 GMT
The Tandridge result hasn’t been commented on. The two independents doing very well and getting 73% between them. The Conservatives dropping 43%. I note that the winning Indy came across as very embedded in the community and the Conservatives had a young candidate. I thought this might be Home Counties decent territory for the Lib Dem’s as well but they managed 12 votes- although I did note that the Lib Dem candidate lived some way away. I would think this must be about as back of beyond as you can get for the Home Counties so close to London and very much its own place- after all even Tandridge the district "capital" itself is just a really small village. I suppose the fact the Fellbridge itself is facing towards East Grinstead in another county probably adds to that isolation. I'm not all that surprised that the Indies did well- that was always a possibility if they were putting the effort in. I don't know how others got on with getting information out about this contest- I more or less gave up and guessed, and looking at the scores I may not have been alone in that. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 18, 2021 10:41:18 GMT
East Garioch Conservative gain from Lib Dems. Turnout 26.2%
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