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Post by andrew111 on May 23, 2022 12:26:06 GMT
Green gains Bournemouth E Bournemouth W Bury St Edmunds Dorset W Forest of Dean Hampshire E Isle of Wight Lewes Reigate Salisbury Somerset N Somerton & Frome Stafford Stroud Truro & Falmouth Vale of Glamorgan Ah yes, the Lib Dems on 43% are really going to give the Greens on 2% a clear run in Lewes! |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 23, 2022 12:30:51 GMT
Those Green seats are what happens when you try to balance the fact that they are not the leading ‘progressive’ party basically anywhere, but you presumably still need to give them some seats in this scenario. In my view, about half of them are winnable enough for Labour/the Lib Dems to not stand aside in, while the other half are safe enough for the Tories that they could theoretically stand aside but the Greens would consequently struggle to actually win.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 23, 2022 12:41:18 GMT
Not to give Electoral Calculus too much credibility, but the big picture numbers for such a scenario are not completely implausible. It won’t happen, but if there was such pacts then the vast majority of their constituent parties voters would transfer to the anointed party in each area. The Labour Party vote is largely left-liberal these days and even their core Labour Leave vote tends to hate the Tories enough to vote for anyone but them (and the sort of seats they would be standing down in are disproportionately the former). The Lib Dem vote is no longer a centrist/NOTA protest vote like in 2010, but rather an overwhelmingly socially liberal and largely centre-left vote that clearly prefers Labour to the Tories these days. The Greens are similar but even less Conservative friendly. Again, it’s very likely not going to happen (particularly on the Labour end), but if it hypothetically did then it could be devastating for the Tories.
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Post by carlton43 on May 23, 2022 12:50:47 GMT
If the Greens win East Hampshire at the next general election, I will buy the entire forum a pint. Who will organise the Forum Coaches for the Green Mutual Aid effort? |
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2022 12:53:28 GMT
If the Greens win East Hampshire at the next general election, I will buy the entire forum a pint. Who will organise the Forum Coaches for the Green Mutual Aid effort? Coaches? Surely one (very long) bicycle? |
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Post by carlton43 on May 23, 2022 13:02:31 GMT
Who will organise the Forum Coaches for the Green Mutual Aid effort? Coaches? Surely one (very long) bicycle? You think so small. What about the snooker table, the bars, the barrels, room for WAGs, the under-age girl camp followers, card table and beds? |
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2022 13:05:35 GMT
Coaches? Surely one (very long) bicycle? You think so small. What about the snooker table, the bars, the barrels, room for WAGs, the under-age girl camp followers, card table and beds? They can find their own bicycles. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 23, 2022 13:23:21 GMT
You think so small. What about the snooker table, the bars, the barrels, room for WAGs, the under-age girl camp followers, card table and beds? They can find their own bicycles. Snooker table on a bicycle seems a nice challenge for Anneka! Makes me think of the Quangle Wangle Quee though... Put him/it on the bicycle first |
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2022 13:29:06 GMT
They can find their own bicycles. Snooker table on a bicycle seems a nice challenge for Anneka! Makes me think of the Quangle Wangle Quee though... Put him/it on the bicycle first Chain yourself to the crumpetty tree to stop them chopping it down for that new bypass. |
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Post by batman on May 23, 2022 14:57:25 GMT
This "poll" could at a stroke solve the UK's fertiliser shortage issues.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on May 23, 2022 15:45:02 GMT
You think so small. What about the snooker table, the bars, the barrels, room for WAGs, the under-age girl camp followers, card table and beds? They can find their own bicycles. I'll cycle up and meet the Forum in East Meon, very pleasant spot! 😛 |
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2022 15:57:25 GMT
They can find their own bicycles. I'll cycle up and meet the Forum in East Meon, very pleasant spot! 😛 |
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Post by John Chanin on May 23, 2022 16:22:24 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2022 16:37:55 GMT
Disappointing, but perhaps not surprising. |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 23, 2022 16:39:22 GMT
Seeing a map of these "predictions" really drives home how mad they are: |
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2022 16:40:50 GMT
True John, I mostly chose the other one for the footage of the man on the Penny Farthing.  |
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pl
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Post by pl on May 23, 2022 16:51:14 GMT
Disappointing, but perhaps not surprising. I've not read PB for a decade or more. It was indispensable when Mike was actually focused on betting on politics. The more he was strayed into politics over recent years, the less analytical he has become. A great shame. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 23, 2022 19:13:20 GMT
Green gains Bournemouth E Bournemouth W Bury St Edmunds Dorset W Forest of Dean Hampshire E Isle of Wight Lewes Reigate Salisbury Somerset N Somerton & Frome Stafford Stroud Truro & Falmouth Vale of Glamorgan Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 23, 2022 19:33:53 GMT
Seeing a map of these "predictions" really drives home how mad they are: If that's the answer what the hell was the question? |
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Post by greenchristian on May 23, 2022 20:18:11 GMT
Worth noting that the Greens were only contesting those seats, plus: Cannock Chase New Forest West North Herefordshire Rutland and Melton South Staffordshire West Worcestershire Witham So essentially, wherever EC decided the Greens would contest, they won (unless the seat in question was incredibly safely Tory). I think most anoraks would probably agree the Greens would win West Worcestershire a long time before Stafford. The same could be said for North Herefordshire. |
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