Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2021 14:16:54 GMT
Total 1st preferences Con 32564 Ind 25197 LD 17966 Lab 12971 Ref 1859 Indie it is then !! Might not be so clear - I suspect that a huge proportion of Labour first preferences will have a Lib Dem second preference and hence won't be counted. Similarly, I think a smaller but still significant proportion of Lib Dem first preferences will have a Labour second preference.
Of course, if the Lib Dems ran on "It's between us and the Tories", which they almost certainly did to some extent, then some Lib Dem voters will have deemed it unnecessary to give a 2nd preference at all.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 20, 2021 14:20:24 GMT
Might not be so clear - I suspect that a huge proportion of Labour first preferences will have a Lib Dem second preference and hence won't be counted. Similarly, I think a smaller but still significant proportion of Lib Dem first preferences will have a Labour second preference.
Of course, if the Lib Dems ran on "It's between us and the Tories", which they almost certainly did to some extent, then some Lib Dem voters will have deemed it unnecessary to give a 2nd preference at all.
If the Indie got a third of the LD and Lab second prefs, and the Con got 10% of them, it’s on a knife edge. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 20, 2021 14:20:43 GMT
The Conservative share was virtually identical in Wiltshire and in Swindon at around 36% (slightly higher in Swindon in fact). The Independent vote is fairly consistent across the two areas as well.
There's quite a neat symmetry with the Labour and Lib Dems with each polling three times the vote share in their stronger area than in their weaker area (Labour 9% in Wiltshire and 27% in Swindon, Lib Dems 8% in Swindon and 24% in Wiltshire)
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 20, 2021 14:21:28 GMT
Total 1st preferences Con 32564 Ind 25197 LD 17966 Lab 12971 Ref 1859
Con 32564 = 36%
Ind 25197 = 27.8%
LD 17966 = 19.8%
Lab 12971 = 14.3%
Ref 1859 = 2%
Rounds to 99.9%
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 14:26:13 GMT
Which means in the Wiltshire council area, first preferences were Con 23,392. Ind 18,516. LD 15,852. Lab 6001, Ref 1320 Con 35.9% Ind 28.5% LD 24.4% Lab 9.2% Ref 2% So Con -4.9, LD +3.9, Indy +11.4, Lab -1.4, Ref-0.2 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 20, 2021 14:56:30 GMT
I have no particular reason to prefer the Conservatives over this particular Independent (nor vice versa) for this largely irrelevant post in a part of the country to which I have little connection. But an Independent gain will be annoying because I care about the neatness of maps and the map produced in May was marvelously neat:  The 2012 results produced a complete mess of a map with Independent winners all over the places and other irritations such as Bedfordshire voting Labour. 2016 tidied things up considerably but we were still left with a bloc of Independent PCCs (as well as quite a few Labour ones where we could do without that). Ironically, the three remaining Independent PCCs which were replaced by Conservatives this May were all South West neighbours of this Police authority (Dorset, Gloucestershire and Avon & Somerset). Those gains being offset by the loss of Wiltshire messes things up AFAIC. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 15:20:15 GMT
I have no particular reason to prefer the Conservatives over this particular Independent (nor vice versa) for this largely irrelevant post in a part of the country to which I have little connection. But an Independent gain will be annoying because I care about the neatness of maps and the map produced in May was marvelously neat: The 2012 results produced a complete mess of a map with Independent winners all over the places and other irritations such as Bedfordshire voting Labour. 2016 tidied things up considerably but we were still left with a bloc of Independent PCCs (as well as quite a few Labour ones where we could do without that). Ironically, the three remaining Independent PCCs which were replaced by Conservatives this May were all South West neighbours of this Police authority (Dorset, Gloucestershire and Avon & Somerset). Those gains being offset by the loss of Wiltshire messes things up AFAIC. Like you I care very little about the result of an election for a role I would prefer not to exist, but your post does indicate an interesting and somewhat different attitude to the maps. It really does seem you care for the maps as a matter of sheer aesthetics. I care about them for the information they give and the interest they arouse regardless of any aesthetics. Your map in this case is aesthetically pleasing, but rather "dull" just because of a lack of variation, or of complexity in the pattern. I prefer the "messy" ones because there is more to learn in the variation they display. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 20, 2021 15:44:11 GMT
You can sleep easy tonight Pete - your map is unchanged!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 20, 2021 15:48:01 GMT
I have no particular reason to prefer the Conservatives over this particular Independent (nor vice versa) for this largely irrelevant post in a part of the country to which I have little connection. But an Independent gain will be annoying because I care about the neatness of maps and the map produced in May was marvelously neat: The 2012 results produced a complete mess of a map with Independent winners all over the places and other irritations such as Bedfordshire voting Labour. 2016 tidied things up considerably but we were still left with a bloc of Independent PCCs (as well as quite a few Labour ones where we could do without that). Ironically, the three remaining Independent PCCs which were replaced by Conservatives this May were all South West neighbours of this Police authority (Dorset, Gloucestershire and Avon & Somerset). Those gains being offset by the loss of Wiltshire messes things up AFAIC. Like you I care very little about the result of an election for a role I would prefer not to exist, but your post does indicate an interesting and somewhat different attitude to the maps. It really does seem you care for the maps as a matter of sheer aesthetics. I care about them for the information they give and the interest they arouse regardless of any aesthetics. Your map in this case is aesthetically pleasing, but rather "dull" just because of a lack of variation, or of complexity in the pattern. I prefer the "messy" ones because there is more to learn in the variation they display. Not sheer asthetics no and I wouldn't care much for the predictable and boring Haringey type pattern either. A 'winners' map conceals more information than it reveals anyway so I prefer thematic maps for these purposes. But I do think the aesthetics of a map are important and I wish voters would take a bit more care over that as well. Despite all the horrors that occurred on 1st May 1997 (from my own partisan perspective), one of the results which irritated me the most was Labour gaining Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber from the Lib Dems, because it looked so wrong on the map. I also think the Boundary Commission should have more concern for these issues in the way they draw up boundaries, both in the shape of the constituncies themselves and in terms of how the overall map will look when coloured in so that they would avoid adding a large rural area to a safe or potential Labour seat as they have done in eg Peterborough or as they propose to do with Luton South. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 20, 2021 15:52:26 GMT
I quickly make it:
32,796 first round votes for Labour, Liberal Democrat and Reform
5,188 (15.8%) to Conservative
9,618 (29.3%) Independent
17,990 (54.9%) not transferred (or whatever terminology)
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 20, 2021 15:52:52 GMT
I have no particular reason to prefer the Conservatives over this particular Independent (nor vice versa) for this largely irrelevant post in a part of the country to which I have little connection. But an Independent gain will be annoying because I care about the neatness of maps and the map produced in May was marvelously neat: The 2012 results produced a complete mess of a map with Independent winners all over the places and other irritations such as Bedfordshire voting Labour. 2016 tidied things up considerably but we were still left with a bloc of Independent PCCs (as well as quite a few Labour ones where we could do without that). Ironically, the three remaining Independent PCCs which were replaced by Conservatives this May were all South West neighbours of this Police authority (Dorset, Gloucestershire and Avon & Somerset). Those gains being offset by the loss of Wiltshire messes things up AFAIC. Like you I care very little about the result of an election for a role I would prefer not to exist, but your post does indicate an interesting and somewhat different attitude to the maps. It really does seem you care for the maps as a matter of sheer aesthetics. I care about them for the information they give and the interest they arouse regardless of any aesthetics. Your map in this case is aesthetically pleasing, but rather "dull" just because of a lack of variation, or of complexity in the pattern. I prefer the "messy" ones because there is more to learn in the variation they display. Personally, on the substance of PCCs (who do after all have an influence on people's lives) rather than on aesthetics of maps, I think there is a case for Party candidates and campaigning being excluded. The police should be apolitical and detached from Party pressures as far as possible imo. However if they are rolled in with Mayors as in West Yorks, that is different. Here I would say the Mayor should have to pick a Commissioner of no Party or a different Party.. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,878 
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 20, 2021 15:53:46 GMT
You can sleep easy tonight Pete - your map is unchanged! LOL The ignorant claque get it wrong again ....... Again! |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 20, 2021 15:55:48 GMT
I quickly make it: 32,796 first round votes for Labour, Liberal Democrat and Reform 5,188 (15.8%) to Conservative 9,618 (29.3%) Independent 17,990 (54.9%) not transferred (or whatever terminology) But but, progressive alliance…. Those 15% don’t exist…. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 20, 2021 15:56:42 GMT
Might not be so clear - I suspect that a huge proportion of Labour first preferences will have a Lib Dem second preference and hence won't be counted. Similarly, I think a smaller but still significant proportion of Lib Dem first preferences will have a Labour second preference.
Of course, if the Lib Dems ran on "It's between us and the Tories", which they almost certainly did to some extent, then some Lib Dem voters will have deemed it unnecessary to give a 2nd preference at all.
This is why they should be AV not SV. But of course Patel is going to make them FPTP which is worst of all |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 20, 2021 15:57:17 GMT
You can sleep easy tonight Pete - your map is unchanged! LOL The ignorant claque get it wrong again ....... Again! What??? |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 16:01:04 GMT
Like you I care very little about the result of an election for a role I would prefer not to exist, but your post does indicate an interesting and somewhat different attitude to the maps. It really does seem you care for the maps as a matter of sheer aesthetics. I care about them for the information they give and the interest they arouse regardless of any aesthetics. Your map in this case is aesthetically pleasing, but rather "dull" just because of a lack of variation, or of complexity in the pattern. I prefer the "messy" ones because there is more to learn in the variation they display. Not sheer asthetics no and I wouldn't care much for the predictable and boring Haringey type pattern either. A 'winners' map conceals more information than it reveals anyway so I prefer thematic maps for these purposes. But I do think the aesthetics of a map are important and I wish voters would take a bit more care over that as well. Despite all the horrors that occurred on 1st May 1997 (from my own partisan perspective), one of the results which irritated me the most was Labour gaining Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber from the Lib Dems, because it looked so wrong on the map. I also think the Boundary Commission should have more concern for these issues in the way they draw up boundaries, both in the shape of the constituncies themselves and in terms of how the overall map will look when coloured in so that they would avoid adding a large rural area to a safe or potential Labour seat as they have done in eg Peterborough or as they propose to do with Luton South. I did just wonder whether you liked the fact that England at least came out as simple red white and blue while the added green in Wales just emphasised the otherness of the Principality. Personally of course I prefer a nice little spread of yellow so I prefer your avatar. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 20, 2021 16:12:25 GMT
That was a long time to wait for what was ultimately a bit of a damp squib, in an election the Tories frankly deserved to lose because of the stupid rules that necessitated this contest in the first place. A lot of LibDem and Labour second preferences were obviously wasted.
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Post by froome on Aug 20, 2021 16:13:34 GMT
I quickly make it: 32,796 first round votes for Labour, Liberal Democrat and Reform 5,188 (15.8%) to Conservative 9,618 (29.3%) Independent 17,990 (54.9%) not transferred (or whatever terminology) It does look like a lot of transfers from Labour and Lib Dem must have gone to each other, which has got the Conservatives over the line. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 16:19:37 GMT
I quickly make it: 32,796 first round votes for Labour, Liberal Democrat and Reform 5,188 (15.8%) to Conservative 9,618 (29.3%) Independent 17,990 (54.9%) not transferred (or whatever terminology) But but, progressive alliance…. Those 15% don’t exist…. about a third of those would be Reform votes I guess so maybe 10% of Lib /Lab votes transferred to the Tory in preference to the Indy. Probably a lot of those didn't like the police being under the control of an ex-copper- I'd have reservations about that somewhat incestuous arrangement. The majority went to the other half of the Lib/Lab "alliance" and so were lost, or simply didn't transfer to anyone. |
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Post by greenhert on Aug 20, 2021 16:23:44 GMT
Given how likely Conservative voters are to vote whatever the weather, and turnouts always being low in August, I am not that surprised about a narrow Conservative hold.
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