2021 Local Election battleground

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 18, 2021 9:54:12 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

We ought to try and draw up some kind of tables for those areas that are comparable. Obviously the county councils are one set but would need to exclude Bucks and Northants (plus what other counties had elections in 2017 but will not this May - Dorset for one, Somerset and North Yorkshire?). Unitary counties are a problem because of boundary changes especially in eg. Cornwall where there is a drastic reduction in seats - it would be difficult to make a meaningful comparison there. Then there would be another table for second tier districts which voted in 2016. This might be a bit more straightforward but presumably there are some which had all up elections on new ward boundaries then and are back to thirds now and some which will be all up on new boundaries this May. On top of that you have a vast number of casual vacancies though they should be excluded from the equation (not entirely straightforward where these mean double vacancies in councils which elect by thirds). I might try and put something together if I get time - probably best on a new thread. I noticed that the Thrasher & Rallings book had the total for Hertfordshire wrong because they assigned a seat which Labour won to the Lib Dems so it will also requite cross-checking against LEAP and other sources.

[Pete Whitehead]

So firstly looking at the councils which would have been up this year 'normally' (Bucks and the Northants council would have been up in 2020 but I've included them here to aid comparisons - as indicated above this is not going to be an exact science)

	2017  Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth		2021  Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth
County Councils
Cambridgeshire	36	7	15	1		2	61							61
Derbyshire	37	24	3				64							64
Devon	42	7	7	2	1		59							59
East Sussex	30	4	11	5			50							50
Essex	56	6	7	2	1	3	75							75
Gloucestershire	31	5	14		2	1	53							53
Hampshire	56	2	19			1	78							78
Hertfordshire	51	9	18				78							78
Kent	67	5	7		1	1	81							81
Lancashire	46	30	4	2	1	1	84							84
Leicestershire	36	6	13				55							55
Lincolnshire	58	6	1	4		1	70							70
Norfolk	55	17	11	1			84							84
Nottinghamshire	31	23	1	1		10	66							66
Oxfordshire	31	14	13	4		1	63							63
Staffordshire	51	10		1			62							62
Suffolk	52	11	5	3	3	1	75							75
Surrey	61	1	9		1	9	81							81
Warwickshire	36	10	7		2	2	57							57
West Sussex	56	5	9				70							70
Worcestershire	40	10	3	1	2	1	57							57
Total	959	212	177	27	14	34	1423	0	0	0	0	0	0	1423
Buckinghamshire	41	1	4	1		2	49							0
Cumbria	37	26	16	5			84							0
Dorset	32	1	11		2		46							0
North Yorkshire	55	4	3	10			72							0
Northamptonshire	43	12	2				57							0
Somerset	35	3	12	3	2		55							0
Total	243	47	48	19	4	2	363	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	1202	259	225	46	18	36	1786	0	0	0	0	0	0	1423
Unitary Authorities
Cornwall *-	46	5	38	30		4	123							87
Durham	10	74	14	13		15	126							126
Isle of Wight *-	25	1	2	11	1		40							39
Northumberland	33	24	3	7			67							67
Shropshire	49	8	12	3	1	1	74							74
Wiltshire *	68	3	20	7			98							98
Total	231	115	89	71	2	20	528	0	0	0	0	0	0	491
Met Borough (Doncaster)	7	43		2		3	55							55
New Unitaries (Notional)
Buckinghamshire	123	3	12	3		6	147							147
North Northamptonshire	60	15	3				78							78
West Northamptonshire	69	21	3				93							93
	252	39	18	3	0	6	318	0	0	0	0	0	0	318
Total seats England	1440	417	314	119	20	59	2369	0	0	0	0	0	0	2287

When I've added the results for 2021 I will add further columns indicating the changes. The total changes may not be all that meaningful but there are categories where they will be instructive.
The total number of seats being fought here aren't greatly reduced despite the absence of several shire counties this year and a drastic reduction of seats in Cornwall, because the new councils in Buckinghamshire and Northamptonshire overcompensate for the losses in their respective counties.  The notional figures for those councils are not included in the 2017 totals.

The notional results are simply the 2017 results in the component county divisions multiplied by three.  It goes without saying that had these been fought under three-member wards, several of these would have split their representation but it is pointless to speculate how that would have manifested so it is winner takes all to enable some meaningful comparisons in those areas

[Pete Whitehead]

Now the elections delayed from 2020

	2016 Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth		2021  Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth
Metropolitan Boroughs
Barnsley	1	18				2	21							21
Bolton	5	12	1			2	20							20
Bradford	5	15	4	5	1		30							30
Bury	6	10	1				17							17
Calderdale	6	8	3				17							17
Coventry	5	13					18							18
Dudley	9	14				1	24							24
Gateshead		17	5				22							22
Kirklees	6	12	3	1	1		23							23
Knowsley +		14	1				15							15
Leeds	6	21	3		1	2	33							33
Liverpool		25	3		1	1	30							30
Manchester		31	1				32							32
Newcastle upon Tyne		18	7	1			26							26
North Tyneside	2	17	1				20							20
Oldham	1	15	3	1			20							20
Rochdale	3	16	1				20							20
Rotherham *		48		1		14	63							59
St Helens	1	14	1				16							16
Salford *	8	51		1			60							60
Sandwell		24					24							24
Sefton	1	11	7	2		1	22							22
Sheffield +		20	6		1	1	28							28
Solihull	9	1	3		4		17							17
South Tyneside		18					18							18
Stockport	3	8	9	1			21							21
Sunderland	2	22	1				25							25
Tameside	2	17					19							19
Trafford	10	9	2				21							21
Wakefield	2	19					21							21
Walsall	7	10	2	1			20							20
Wigan	3	19		1		2	25							25
Wirral	7	13	2				22							22
Wolverhampton	2	18					20							20
Total	112	598	70	15	9	26	830							826
Unitary Authorities
Blackburn with Darwen ++ (18)	5	11	1				17							17
Bristol	14	37	8		11		70							70
Derby	7	7	2			1	17							17
Halton *	2	52	3				57							54
Hartlepool *	3	14		5		11	33							36
Hull	1	10	9				20							20
Milton Keynes	5	9	5				19							19
North East Lincolnshire	3	7	2				12							12
Peterborough +	14	3	3			2	22							22
Plymouth	8	11					19							19
Portsmouth	4	2	8				14							14
Reading	3	11	1		1		16							16
Slough	2	12					14							14
Southampton	4	11		1			16							16
Southend-on-Sea	8	4	1	4			17							17
Swindon	9	9	1				19							19
Thurrock	7	4				6	17							17
Warrington	2	45	11				58							58
Wokingham	14	1	3				18							18
Total	115	260	58	10	12	20	475							475
Second tier districts
Adur (half)	7	3		1		4	15							15
Amber Valley	4	11					15							15
Basildon	6	5				3	14							14
Basingstoke & Deane *	31	21	7	1			60							54
Brentwood	6	1	4	1			12							12
Broxbourne	9	1					10							10
Burnley	1	8	5			1	15							15
Cambridge *		26	15	1			42							42
Cannock Chase	3	9			1		13							13
Castle Point	8					5	13							13
Cheltenham (half)	3		15	1		1	20							20
Cherwell	12	3		1			16							16
Chorley *	8	37		2			47							42
Colchester	7	4	5	1			17							17
Crawley ++ (19)	6	6					12							12
Eastleigh ++ (18)	1		10	1			12							12
Elmbridge +	6		3			7	16							16
Epping Forest	12		1		1	8	22							22
Exeter +	2	11					13							13
Fareham (half)	12		2			1	15							15
Gloucester	22	10	7				39							39
Gosport (half)	10	2	5				17							17
Harlow	4	7					11							11
Hart	5		3			3	11							11
Hastings (half)	3	13					16							16
Havant	11	1				2	14							14
Hyndburn	2	10					12							12
Ipswich	2	13	1				16							16
Lincoln	4	7					11							11
Maidstone	7	1	8	2		1	19							19
Mole Valley	5		5			3	13							13
North Hertfordshire	7	6	2				15							15
Norwich++ (19)		9	1		3		13							13
Nuneaton & Bedworth (half)	5	12			1		18							18
Oxford *		36	9	1	2		48							48
Pendle *	22	16	11				49							33
Preston ++ (19)	3	10	3				16							16
Redditch	2	7					9							9
Reigate & Banstead ++ (19)	10		1		2	2	15							15
Rochford +	6		1		1	5	13							13
Rossendale	2	10					12							12
Rugby	7	3	3	1			14							14
Runnymede ++ (19)	8	1	1		1	2	13							13
Rushmoor	8	4				1	13							13
St Albans	7	3	6	1	1		18							18
Stevenage	2	10	1				13							13
Stroud	23	18	2		8		51							51
Tamworth	6	2				2	10							10
Tandridge	8		5			1	14							14
Three Rivers	4	1	8				13							13
Tunbridge Wells	13	1	2				16							16
Watford		4	8				12							12
Welwyn Hatfield +	10	4	2				16							16
West Lancashire	5	12				1	18							18
West Oxfordshire	12	3	2				17							17
Winchester +	6		8				14							14
Woking +	6	1	2	1			10							10
Worcester	3	7			2		12							12
Worthing	11		1			1	13							13
Total	415	390	175	16	23	54	1073							1059
Total seats England 2016	642	1248	303	41	44	100	2378							2347

* indicates all-up election on new boundaries. Rotherham was all-up in 2016 but the others in the list elected by thirds (or halves) then.  For those councils I have included the aggregate of all seats elected during the cycle (ie 2016, 2018 and 2019) and not taking account of any by-election changes, defections, vacancies etc

+ indicates that the council had all-out elections in 2016 but has now reverted to elections by thirds so I for 2016 I have just counted the seats which are up for re-election this year
++ indicates the same as above except that the all-out elections occurred in a later year (2018 or 2019 as indicated in each case)

I'm sure there's some errors - corrections welcome

Obviously there are a number of councils which voted in 2016 which don't have elections this year (Birmingham, Daventry etc) and I've chosen to disregard them.  I appreciate that this is not consistent with the approach to the county councils like Dorset and Somerset which are included in the 2017 totals but as those aren't going to feature in the 2021 totals they can be taken or left anyway..

[greenhert]

Apr 22, 2021 17:52:42 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Now the elections delayed from 2020

	2016 Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth		2021  Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth
Metropolitan Boroughs
Barnsley	1	18				2	21							21
Bolton	5	12	1			2	20							20
Bradford	5	15	4	5	1		30							30
Bury	6	10	1				17							17
Calderdale	6	8	3				17							17
Coventry	5	13					18							18
Dudley	9	14				1	24							24
Gateshead		17	5				22							22
Kirklees	6	12	3	1	1		23							23
Knowsley +		14	1				15							15
Leeds	6	21	3		1	2	33							33
Liverpool		25	3		1	1	30							30
Manchester		31	1				32							32
Newcastle upon Tyne		18	7	1			26							26
North Tyneside	2	17	1				20							20
Oldham	1	15	3	1			20							20
Rochdale	3	16	1				20							20
Rotherham *		48		1		14	63							59
St Helens	1	14	1				16							16
Salford *	8	51		1			60							60
Sandwell		24					24							24
Sefton	1	11	7	2		1	22							22
Sheffield +		20	6		1	1	28							28
Solihull	9	1	3		4		17							17
South Tyneside		18					18							18
Stockport	3	8	9	1			21							21
Sunderland	2	22	1				25							25
Tameside	2	17					19							19
Trafford	10	9	2				21							21
Wakefield	2	19					21							21
Walsall	7	10	2	1			20							20
Wigan	3	19		1		2	25							25
Wirral	7	13	2				22							22
Wolverhampton	2	18					20							20
Total	112	598	70	15	9	26	830							826
Unitary Authorities
Blackburn with Darwen ++ (18)	5	11	1				17							17
Bristol	14	37	8		11		70							70
Derby	7	7	2			1	17							17
Halton *	2	52	3				57							54
Hartlepool *	3	14		5		11	33							36
Hull	1	10	9				20							20
Milton Keynes	5	9	5				19							19
North East Lincolnshire	3	7	2				12							12
Peterborough +	14	3	3			2	22							22
Plymouth	8	11					19							19
Portsmouth	4	2	8				14							14
Reading	3	11	1		1		16							16
Slough	2	12					14							14
Southampton	4	11		1			16							16
Southend-on-Sea	8	4	1	4			17							17
Swindon	9	9	1				19							19
Thurrock	7	4				6	17							17
Warrington	2	45	11				58							58
Wokingham	14	1	3				18							18
Total	115	260	58	10	12	20	475							475
Second tier districts
Adur (half)	7	3		1		4	15							15
Amber Valley	4	11					15							15
Basildon	6	5				3	14							14
Basingstoke & Deane *	31	21	7	1			60							54
Brentwood	6	1	4	1			12							12
Broxbourne	9	1					10							10
Burnley	1	8	5			1	15							15
Cambridge *		26	15	1			42							42
Cannock Chase	3	9			1		13							13
Carlisle ++ (19)	5	5		1	1	1	13							13
Castle Point	8					5	13							13
Cheltenham (half)	3		15	1		1	20							20
Cherwell	12	3		1			16							16
Chorley *	8	37		2			47							42
Colchester	7	4	5	1			17							17
Crawley ++ (19)	6	6					12							12
Eastleigh ++ (18)	1		10	1			12							12
Elmbridge +	6		3			7	16							16
Epping Forest	12		1		1	8	22							22
Exeter +	2	11					13							13
Fareham (half)	12		2			1	15							15
Gloucester	22	10	7				39							39
Gosport (half)	10	2	5				17							17
Harlow	4	7					11							11
Hart	5		3			3	11							11
Hastings (half)	3	13					16							16
Havant	11	1				2	14							14
Hyndburn	2	10					12							12
Ipswich	2	13	1				16							16
Lincoln	4	7					11							11
Maidstone	7	1	8	2		1	19							19
Mole Valley	5	5				3	13							13
North Hertfordshire	7	6	2				15							15
Norwich		11	1		1		13							13
Nuneaton & Bedworth (half)	5	12			1		18							18
Oxford *		36	9	1	2		48							48
Pendle *	22	16	11				49							33
Preston ++ (19)	3	10	3				16							16
Redditch	2	7					9							9
Reigate & Banstead ++ (19)	10		1		2	2	15							15
Rochford +	6		1		1	5	13							13
Rossendale	2	10					12							12
Rugby	7	3	3	1			14							14
Runnymede ++ (19)	8	1	1		1	2	13							13
Rushmoor	8	4				1	13							13
St Albans	7	3	6	1	1		18							18
Stevenage	2	10	1				13							13
Stroud	23	18	2		8		51							51
Tamworth	6	2				2	10							10
Tandridge	8		5			1	14							14
Three Rivers	4	1	8				13							13
Tunbridge Wells	13	1	2				16							16
Watford		4	8				12							12
Welwyn Hatfield +	10	4	2				16							16
West Lancashire	5	12				1	18							18
West Oxfordshire	12	3	2				17							17
Winchester +	6		8				14							14
Woking +	6	1	2	1			10							10
Worcester	3	7			2		12							12
Worthing	11		1			1	13							13
Total	420	402	170	17	22	55	1086							1059
Total seats England 2016	647	1260	298	42	43	101	2391							2360

* indicates all-up election on new boundaries. Rotherham was all-up in 2016 but the others in the list elected by thirds (or halves) then.  For those councils I have included the aggregate of all seats elected during the cycle (ie 2016, 2018 and 2019) and not taking account of any by-election changes, defections, vacancies etc

+ indicates that the council had all-out elections in 2016 but has now reverted to elections by thirds so I for 2016 I have just counted the seats which are up for re-election this year
++ indicates the same as above except that the all-out elections occurred in a later year (2018 or 2019 as indicated in each case)

I'm sure there's some errors - corrections welcome

Obviously there are a number of councils which voted in 2016 which don't have elections this year (Birmingham, Daventry etc) and I've chosen to disregard them.  I appreciate that this is not consistent with the approach to the county councils like Dorset and Somerset which are included in the 2017 totals but as those aren't going to feature in the 2021 totals they can be taken or left anyway..

There are actually 3 Green seats in Norwich up for election this year (and thus in fact 9 Labour seats in Norwich up for election this year)-Norwich had all-out elections in 2019 and the Greens won three seats each in Mancroft, Nelson, and Thorpe Hamlet wards respectively.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 22, 2021 17:59:12 GMT greenhert said:

There are actually 3 Green seats in Norwich up for election this year (and thus in fact 9 Labour seats in Norwich up for election this year)-Norwich had all-out elections in 2019 and the Greens won three seats each in Mancroft, Nelson, and Thorpe Hamlet wards respectively.

Thanks I'd missed that in Norwich - will update. It probably isn't necessary to include the entire table in your quote post tbh or this thread will become a bit unwieldy..

[lancastrian]

The election in Carlisle was cancelled.

[michael2019]

Thanks for a very informative and well presented breakdown of the seats up for election.

My understanding is that Dorset County Council has been abolished and replaced by single tier unitary/unitaries (all of Dorset County Council area except Christchurch which went into the existing Bournemouth and Poole unitary (now Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole unitary). Oddly it seems that it will initially elect councillors on a *five* year cycle in 2024 and 2029 after elections in 2019 and then will revert back to every 4 years.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorset_Council_(UK)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Bournemouth,_Christchurch_and_Poole_Council_election

Is it possible to do a breakdown for the elected mayors, PCC and GLA elections?

[michael2019]

Apr 25, 2021 14:55:04 GMT michael2019 said:

Thanks for a very informative and well presented breakdown of the seats up for election.

My understanding is that Dorset County Council has been abolished and replaced by single tier unitary/unitaries (all of Dorset County Council area except Christchurch which went into the existing Bournemouth and Poole unitary (now Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole unitary). Oddly it seems that it will initially elect councillors on a *five* year cycle in 2024 and 2029 after elections in 2019 and then will revert back to every 4 years.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorset_Council_(UK)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Bournemouth,_Christchurch_and_Poole_Council_election

Is it possible to do a breakdown for the elected mayors, PCC and GLA elections?

Sorry - I see that I got this  wrong - the county councils in italics are those counties that don't have elections this year but did four years ago in 2017 as was explained! Somerset going for a five year cycle

A breakdown for the other (non-council) local elections would be useful and interesting!

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 25, 2021 15:06:42 GMT michael2019 said:

Apr 25, 2021 14:55:04 GMT michael2019 said:

Thanks for a very informative and well presented breakdown of the seats up for election.

My understanding is that Dorset County Council has been abolished and replaced by single tier unitary/unitaries (all of Dorset County Council area except Christchurch which went into the existing Bournemouth and Poole unitary (now Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole unitary). Oddly it seems that it will initially elect councillors on a *five* year cycle in 2024 and 2029 after elections in 2019 and then will revert back to every 4 years.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorset_Council_(UK)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Bournemouth,_Christchurch_and_Poole_Council_election

Is it possible to do a breakdown for the elected mayors, PCC and GLA elections?

Sorry - I see that I got this  wrong - the county councils in italics are those counties that don't have elections this year but did four years ago in 2017 as was explained! Somerset going for a five year cycle

A breakdown for the other (non-council) local elections would be useful and interesting!

I could do that - for that matter, you (or anyone else) could - I wouldn't get precious about it. The thing was that there are so many councils that voted last time round that aren't this time, new councils which didn't exist then, all up elections in councils which previously elected on thirds (on new boundaries, often with fewer seats) and vice versa. So I was trying to get my head around how to make comparisons in terms of total seats gained and lost, plus you have the additional complication of effectively two years worth of elections being held in one year. None of this applies to the directly elected Mayors or the PCC elections. Nevertheless it wouldn't hurt to have a breakdown of the party strengths for those positions and to have it all in the same thread.

[peterl]

Having everything together would be good I think. I'll add the GLA and Mayors, give me a day or so. Maybe someone else will do police commissioners.

Important to note is that while Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council is not up this year, the two by elections do have the potential to at least start the ball rolling on a potential change of control.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 25, 2021 17:14:12 GMT peterl said:

Having everything together would be good I think. I'll add the GLA and Mayors, give me a day or so. Maybe someone else will do police commissioners.

Important to note is that while Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council is not up this year, the two by elections do have the potential to at least start the ball rolling on a potential change of control.

Yes although there are other threads for by-elections so I'll keep them separate entirely - i've not included casual vacancies even in those councils which have regular elections this year. I'll do the GLA etc - it will be useful to maintain the same format (and I have the formatting in place so it will be quite a quick job)

[peterl]

Thank you, this will be a useful resource as we analyse this year's results.

[Georg Ebner]

Made this - before the Corona-OutBreak - for 2020:

drive.google.com/file/d/1VsXAJIoWw2mfrnaElE00mVNCR-PZ7v9Y/view?usp=sharing

[andrewp]

Apr 25, 2021 14:55:04 GMT michael2019 said:

Thanks for a very informative and well presented breakdown of the seats up for election.

My understanding is that Dorset County Council has been abolished and replaced by single tier unitary/unitaries (all of Dorset County Council area except Christchurch which went into the existing Bournemouth and Poole unitary (now Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole unitary). Oddly it seems that it will initially elect councillors on a *five* year cycle in 2024 and 2029 after elections in 2019 and then will revert back to every 4 years.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorset_Council_(UK)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Bournemouth,_Christchurch_and_Poole_Council_election

Is it possible to do a breakdown for the elected mayors, PCC and GLA elections?

Is that correct that they have gone to 5 year terms in the Dorset authorities?

If Somerset goes Unitary, I’m not clear if that unitary will be on the 2022,26 election cycle or the 2023/27 one

Halton is all up this year and then thirds 2022/23/24 I think, so not on the same third cycle as most (any?) thirds councils.

[peterl]

Apr 25, 2021 18:21:30 GMT andrewp said:

Is that correct that they have gone to 5 year terms in the Dorset authorities?

Its half true. Dorset Council (and its parishes) are 5 year terms, but only for the first two terms. However, Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole is the usual 4 year terms.

[andrewp]

Apr 25, 2021 18:26:25 GMT peterl said:

Apr 25, 2021 18:21:30 GMT andrewp said:

Is that correct that they have gone to 5 year terms in the Dorset authorities?

Its half true. Dorset Council (and its parishes) are 5 year terms, but only for the first two terms. However, Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole is the usual 4 year terms.

Thanks. Do you know why the 5 year terms??

[peterl]

Apr 25, 2021 18:27:47 GMT andrewp said:

Apr 25, 2021 18:26:25 GMT peterl said:

Its half true. Dorset Council (and its parishes) are 5 year terms, but only for the first two terms. However, Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole is the usual 4 year terms.

Thanks. Do you know why the 5 year terms??

It was argued at the time that it would create greater stability during the transition process as services of existing councils were integrated into the new authority.

[Pete Whitehead]

	2016/ 17   Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth	Total	2021   Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth	Total
Metro/Combined authority Mayors
London Mayor		1
Assembly Constituency	5	9
Assembly List	3	3	1		2	2
Total Assembly	8	12	1		2	2	25							25
Cambridgeshire & Peterborough	1
West of England	1
West Midlands	1
Greater Manchester		1
Liverpool City Region		1
Tees Valley	1
West Yorkshire*
Total	4	2					6							7
Single authority Mayors
Bristol		1
Liverpool		1
Salford		1
Doncaster		1
North Tyneside		1
Total	0	5					5							5
Police and Crime Commissioners
Devon & Cornwall	1
Avon & Somerset				1
Gloucestershire				1
Wiltshire	1
Dorset				1
Hampshire	1
Sussex	1
Kent	1
Surrey	1
Thames Valley	1
Bedfordshire	1
Hertfordshire	1
Essex	1
Suffolk	1
Norfolk	1
Cambridgeshire	1
Northamptonshire	1
Leicestershire		1
Lincolnshire	1
Nottinghamshire		1
Derbyshire		1
Staffordshire	1
Warwickshire	1
West Midlands		1
West Mercia	1
Cheshire		1
Merseyside		1
Lancashire		1
Cumbria	1
Northumbria		1
Durham		1
Cleveland		1
North Yorkshire	1
Humberside		1
South Yorkshire		1
West Yorkshire*		1
North Wales						1
Dyfed-Powys						1
South Wales		1
Gwent		1
Total	20	15		3		2	40							39

[Pete Whitehead]

I've gradually started to update the tables. Interesting but not very surprising patterns from the counties so far reported. Conservatives are down a small amount net but Labour by much more (which considering the last time these seats were contested is very poor for them). Good increases for the Greens and Independents/Residents, modest net gains by the Lib Dems. The modest net change in the number of Tory seats masks significant regional variations. They have gained a large number of seats in Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire and Warwickshire (mostly at Labour's expense) while losing ground in Devon, East Sussex, Essex, Cambridgeshire and most markedly in Surrey

[Pete Whitehead]

Changes in the county councils which voted in both 2017 and 2021

	2017  Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth		2021  Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth		Changes  Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth
County Councils
Cambridgeshire	36	7	15	1		2	61	28	9	20	2		2	61	-8	+2	+5	+1	0	0
Derbyshire	37	24	3				64	45	14	4		1		64	+8	-10	+1	0	+1	0
Devon	42	7	7	2	1	1	60	39	7	9	3	2		60	-3	0	+2	+1	+1	-1
East Sussex	30	4	11	5			50	27	5	11	3	4		50	-3	+1	0	-2	+4	0
Essex	56	6	7	2	1	3	75	52	5	8	3	1	6	75	-4	-1	+1	+1	0	+3
Gloucestershire	31	5	14		2	1	53	28	5	16		4		53	-3	0	+2	0	+2	-1
Hampshire	56	2	19			1	78	56	3	17	1		1	78	0	+1	-2	+1	0	0
Hertfordshire	51	9	18				78	46	7	23	1	1		78	-5	-2	+5	+1	+1	0
Kent*	67	5	7		1	1	81	61	7	6	1	4	1	80	-5	2	-1	1	+3	0
Lancashire	46	30	4	2	1	1	84	48	32	2		2		84	+2	+2	-2	-2	1	-1
Leicestershire	36	6	13				55	42	4	9				55	+6	-2	-4	0	0	0
Lincolnshire	58	6	1	4		1	70	54	4	3	5		4	70	-4	-2	+2	+1	0	+3
Norfolk*	55	17	11	1			84	58	11	8	3	3		83	+3	-5	-3	+2	+3	0
Nottinghamshire	31	23	1	1		10	66	37	15	1	3		10	66	+6	-8	0	+2	0	0
Oxfordshire*	31	14	13	4		1	63	22	15	21	1	3	1	63	-9	1	+8	-3	3	0
Staffordshire	51	10		1			62	57	4		1			62	+6	-6	0	0	0	0
Suffolk	52	11	5	3	3	1	75	55	5	4	1	9	1	75	+3	-6	-1	-2	+6	0
Surrey	61	1	9		1	9	81	47	2	14	3	2	13	81	-14	+1	+5	3+	+1	+4
Warwickshire	36	10	7		2	2	57	42	6	5		3	1	57	+6	-4	-2	0	+1	-1
West Sussex	56	5	9				70	48	9	10		1	2	70	-8	+4	+1	0	+1	+2
Worcestershire	40	10	3	1	2	1	57	45	3	4	2	3		57	+5	-7	+1	+1	+1	-1
Total	959	212	177	27	14	35	1424	937	172	195	33	43	42	1422	-21	-39	+18	+6	+29	+7

* delayed elections in Kent and Norfolk in Conservative and Labour held seats respectively (not included in the figures for changes). For the disputed result in Oxfordshire I've gone with the official result for now.

Some Conservative decline was expected here, the Labour losses somewhat less so and Greens are the big gainers.

The regional variations are striking. In the 8 councils in the Midlands and North* the Conservatives were up 35, Labour down 37, Lib Dems down 4, Green up 4.. The only county where the Conservatives were not up in seats was Lincolnshire
IN the remaining (13) counties in Southern England, the Conservatives were down 56, Labour down 2, Lib Dems up 22, Greens up 25. The only counties where the Conservatives were up in seats here were Norfolk and Suffolk

* Lincolnshire, Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire, Lancashire


Comparisons more tricky in the 2017 Unitaries due to boundary changes and a reduction in the overall number of seats

Unitary Authorities	2017 Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth		2021 Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth		Changes Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth
Cornwall *-	46	5	38	30		4	123	48	5	13	15	1	5	87	+2	0	-25	-15	+1	+1
Durham	10	74	14	13		15	126	24	53	17	22	1	9	126	+14	-21	+3	+9	+1	-6
Isle of Wight *-	25	1	2	11	1		40	18	1	1	14	2	3	39	-7	0	-1	+3	+1	3
Northumberland	33	24	3	7			67	34	21	3	7	2		67	+1	-3	0	0	+2	0
Shropshire	49	8	12	3	1	1	74	43	9	14	4	4		74	-6	+1	+2	+1	+3	-1
Wiltshire *	68	3	20	7			98	61	3	27	7			98	-7	0	+7	0	0	0
	231	115	89	71	2	20	528	228	92	75	69	10	17	491	-3	-23	-14	-2	8	-3

Given that this was clearly a good group for the Conservatives, principally due to Cornwall and Durham. Labours losses were entirely in Durham and Northumberland and in a repeat of the regional pattern noted above the Conservatives are up in those counties and down in those in the South (Cornwall being the obvious exception and Shropshire counting as 'Southern' for these purposes)