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Post by andrew111 on May 24, 2021 23:59:39 GMT
Jon Sheller #ProgressiveAlliance (@jonsheller1) Tweeted: Hhmmm. Been sent some opposition polling in the #CheshamAndAmersham by election. Unexpectedly close.. I'll see more tomorrow. Will look again.
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Post by andrew111 on May 25, 2021 5:17:53 GMT
Jon Sheller #ProgressiveAlliance (@jonsheller1) Tweeted: Hhmmm. Been sent some opposition polling in the #CheshamAndAmersham by election. Unexpectedly close.. I'll see more tomorrow. Will look again. IMO this by-election was always going to be pretty close between Con and LD. Most of the potential Labour and Green vote will be donated to the LDs I expect. The main thing is what happens to the Tory vote %, and of course if Royal Mail do their job properly half the votes may be cast this week |
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Post by yellowperil on May 25, 2021 7:38:36 GMT
My feeling is that this has a simlarity to the by-elections of the past which turned into famous by-election victories.For some reason Christchurch and Romsey are the ones that come to mind. The trouble is many of those felt like close misses until very late in the campaign when suddenly the floodgates opened. Whether that can work the same in the context of Covid and high postal votes remains to be seen.
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Post by andrew111 on May 25, 2021 9:04:11 GMT
My feeling is that this has a simlarity to the by-elections of the past which turned into famous by-election victories.For some reason Christchurch and Romsey are the ones that come to mind. The trouble is many of those felt like close misses until very late in the campaign when suddenly the floodgates opened. Whether that can work the same in the context of Covid and high postal votes remains to be seen. Article on the front page of the Times today headlines "threat" to green belt from Tory planning policy and specifically mentions Bucks. |
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Post by robert1 on May 25, 2021 9:41:25 GMT
'My feeling is that this has a simlarity to the by-elections of the past which turned into famous by-election victories.For some reason Christchurch and Romsey are the ones that come to mind. The trouble is many of those felt like close misses until very late in the campaign when suddenly the floodgates opened.'
In the case of Christchurch the 'floodgates' were open before the campaign started. It was never going to be a close miss.
I am always suspicious of the words 'opposition polling'. The word 'ramping' comes to mind immediately. I wonder why?
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Post by andrew111 on May 25, 2021 9:49:30 GMT
'My feeling is that this has a simlarity to the by-elections of the past which turned into famous by-election victories.For some reason Christchurch and Romsey are the ones that come to mind. The trouble is many of those felt like close misses until very late in the campaign when suddenly the floodgates opened.' In the case of Christchurch the 'floodgates' were open before the campaign started. It was never going to be a close miss. I am always suspicious of the words 'opposition polling'. The word 'ramping' comes to mind immediately. I wonder why? It worked very well for the Tories in Hartlepool.. Challenging Parties always ramp in by-elections and quite often it works, sometimes not. |
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Post by melthamhd94nn on May 25, 2021 9:52:00 GMT
Ed Davey has sent out an email saying ' this is one of those by elections that will go down in Liberal history'.
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on May 25, 2021 10:00:33 GMT
LibDems promoting local nimbyism for electoral advantage? Surely not.
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Post by yellowperil on May 25, 2021 10:02:33 GMT
'My feeling is that this has a simlarity to the by-elections of the past which turned into famous by-election victories.For some reason Christchurch and Romsey are the ones that come to mind. The trouble is many of those felt like close misses until very late in the campaign when suddenly the floodgates opened.' In the case of Christchurch the 'floodgates' were open before the campaign started. It was never going to be a close miss. I am always suspicious of the words 'opposition polling'. The word 'ramping' comes to mind immediately. I wonder why? Maybe Christchurch was a bad example- I deliberately chose two examples where for various reasons I had been somewhat detatched from the campaign- Romsey I remember from reading the result a couple of days late while sitting in a cafe in Crete. I could have quoted from campaigns where I was fully involved like Eastbourne and Newbury where I had a good idea what was going on from the inside. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 25, 2021 10:04:17 GMT
Ed Davey has sent out an email saying ' this is one of those by elections that will go down in Liberal history'. Yes I read that one and thought, yes-one way or another. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on May 25, 2021 10:26:25 GMT
LibDems promoting local nimbyism for electoral advantage? Surely not. All parties do it when it suits them. There are many things to criticise about LibDem campaigning tactics (and I have most certainly done so) but on this point you may as well complain about gravity. |
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on May 25, 2021 10:49:13 GMT
True- but still worth pointing out. It’s the general assumption of moral superiority which requires regular correction
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Post by greenhert on May 25, 2021 11:07:43 GMT
Ed Davey has sent out an email saying ' this is one of those by elections that will go down in Liberal history'. It may do so, but likely not for the reasons he is hoping for. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 25, 2021 11:16:00 GMT
Ed Davey has sent out an email saying ' this is one of those by elections that will go down in Liberal history'. But as a footnote to a footnote, and not in a good way. |
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Post by hullenedge on May 25, 2021 13:11:47 GMT
A forecast for Chesham and another for Batley:-
marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/hartlepool-batley-and-spen-chesham-and-amersham-by-elections/
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mark1968
Lib Dem
Liberal Democrat
Posts: 59 
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Post by mark1968 on May 25, 2021 14:18:31 GMT
A forecast for Chesham and another for Batley:-
-stats.com/nigels-blog/hartlepool-batley-and-spen-chesham-and-amersham-by-elections/
Link does not work !
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Post by hullenedge on May 25, 2021 14:25:40 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on May 25, 2021 17:48:46 GMT
Just out of curiosity, when was the last famous by-election gain by a Lib-Dem party polling consistently in single digits against a (bewilderingly) popular government still consistently polling in the mid-40s?
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Post by andrew111 on May 25, 2021 18:08:23 GMT
Just out of curiosity, when was the last famous by-election gain by a Lib-Dem party polling consistently in single digits against a (bewilderingly) popular government still consistently polling in the mid-40s? Ribble Valley, March 1991, before that Eastbourne 1990 (Lib Dems a little above 10%). Earlier in that Parliament there were Richmond and Epping Forest, where the continuing SDP split the Lib Dem vote but the Tory % fell by over 20%. Tories were on well over 40% for all those. I think Richmond is the last time the Lib Dems failed to win a by-election against the Tories in government, and starting in a clear second place. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on May 25, 2021 18:29:45 GMT
Just out of curiosity, when was the last famous by-election gain by a Lib-Dem party polling consistently in single digits against a (bewilderingly) popular government still consistently polling in the mid-40s? Ribble Valley, March 1991, before that Eastbourne 1990 (Lib Dems a little above 10%). Earlier in that Parliament there were Richmond and Epping Forest, where the continuing SDP split the Lib Dem vote but the Tory % fell by over 20%. Tories were on well over 40% for all those. I think Richmond is the last time the Lib Dems failed to win a by-election against the Tories in government, and starting in a clear second place. The Tories were polling in the mid-30s prior to Eastbourne, so not that one. Ribble Valley, just about although you were polling a few points higher then. |
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