Unitary Council By-elections - 06 May 2021

[Tony Otim]

BRighton & Hove:

Hollingdean & Stanmer - Green gain from Labour
Patcham - Conservative hold, although Greens came surprisingly close

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Have we had Cheshire East, Crewe West yet? www.cheshireeast.gov.uk/pdf/elections/may-election-2021/declaration-of-result-crewe-west.pdf

Lab 724
C 539
Ind Res 184 - Brian Silvester
GP 126
Ind 72
L Dem 55
WPB 13

[Tony Otim]

Cheshire West & Chester:

Frodsham: Con 1481; Lab 1296; LD 384; Grn 176 (Con hold)
Neston: Lab 875; Con 579; LD 80 (Lab hold)

[Merseymike]

May 10, 2021 9:00:54 GMT Tony Otim said:

Cheshire West & Chester:

Frodsham: Con 1481; Lab 1296; LD 384; Grn 176 (Con hold)
Neston: Lab 875; Con 579; LD 80 (Lab hold)

That's a good Labour result in Frodsham

[Tony Otim]

DARLINGTON:

Red Hall & Lingfield: Con 466; Lab 360; INd 201; Grn 38; LD 27; For Britain 11 (Con GAIN from Lab)
Hummersknott: Con 971; Grn 809; Lab 120; LD 32; For Britain 14 (Con Hold, but that's a pretty decent Green performance there).

[Tony Otim]

EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE:

SE Holderness: Con 1624; LD 691; Lab 396; YP 397; Reform 89
SW Holderness: Con 1304; Lab 814; LD 626; Ind 525

2 Con holds.

[Tony Otim]

HEREFORDSHIRE:

Newton Farm: Con 282; LD 190; Lab 64; INd 62, 45, 16; TUSC 9 (Con GAIN from Ind)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

May 10, 2021 9:53:16 GMT Tony Otim said:

HEREFORDSHIRE:

Newton Farm: Con 282; LD 190; Lab 64; INd 62, 45, 16; TUSC 9 (Con GAIN from Ind)

That was the one where the Labour candidate made use of Tiktok.

[Tony Otim]

LEICESTER

North Evington: Lab 3306; Con 2565; Grn 241; LD 240; TUSC 117; Reform 89; For Britain 69; Ind 61; Communist 33 (Lab hold)

[Tony Otim]

SOUTH GLOS

Frenchhay & Downend:
Con 1819; LD 1598; Lab 1049; Grn 347 (Con hold)

[Tony Otim]

TELFORD & WREKIN

Dawley & Aqueduct: Lab 1310; Con 1192; LD 72 (Lab hold)
Donnington: Con 851; Lab 658; LD 66 (Con GAIN from Lab)

[Tony Otim]

TORBAY:

Clifton with Maidenway: LD 1014; Con 983; Lab 149; Grn 69 (LD hold)

[Foggy]

May 10, 2021 12:15:56 GMT Tony Otim said:

SOUTH GLOS

Frenchhay & Downend:
Con 1819; LD 1598; Lab 1049; Grn 347 (Con hold)

It's just "Frenchay" with one 'h'. My grandparents used to live there, until about 35 years ago. 

[robert1]

In 2019 there were all outs following rewarding. The result was Lab 5201/5076/4797 Con 1213/1106/1092 Grn 418 LD 353

LEICESTER

North Evington: Lab 3306; Con 2565; Grn 241; LD 240; TUSC 117; Reform 89; For Britain 69; Ind 61; Communist 33 (Lab hold)

Does anyone know if there were local circumstances for this very marked shift?

[Pete Whitehead]

May 11, 2021 10:34:18 GMT robert1 said:

In 2019 there were all outs following rewarding. The result was Lab 5201/5076/4797 Con 1213/1106/1092 Grn 418 LD 353

LEICESTER

North Evington: Lab 3306; Con 2565; Grn 241; LD 240; TUSC 117; Reform 89; For Britain 69; Ind 61; Communist 33 (Lab hold)

Does anyone know if there were local circumstances for this very marked shift?

It would always be worth looking at the names (ie ethnic origin) of the candidates in a ward with this kind of demographics, but the swing is sort of in line with that which occurred at the general election and may just reflect dissatisfaction with the moronic Labour MP that local voters had foisted on them

[The Bishop]

May 8, 2021 14:21:31 GMT Tony Otim said:

BRighton & Hove:

Hollingdean & Stanmer - Green gain from Labour
Patcham - Conservative hold, although Greens came surprisingly close

Actual figures?

[andrea]

May 11, 2021 10:50:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 11, 2021 10:34:18 GMT robert1 said:

In 2019 there were all outs following rewarding. The result was Lab 5201/5076/4797 Con 1213/1106/1092 Grn 418 LD 353

LEICESTER

North Evington: Lab 3306; Con 2565; Grn 241; LD 240; TUSC 117; Reform 89; For Britain 69; Ind 61; Communist 33 (Lab hold)

Does anyone know if there were local circumstances for this very marked shift?

It would always be worth looking at the names (ie ethnic origin) of the candidates in a ward with this kind of demographics, but the swing is sort of in line with that which occurred at the general election and may just reflect dissatisfaction with the moronic Labour MP that local voters had foisted on them

Vandevi Pandya for Labour
Abdul Razak Osman for Conservatives

There was an Abdul Razak Osman who was a (Labour) Cllr for North Evington from 1995 until 2019 (with a break between 2003 and 2007). In 2015 he polled 1,000 voters above the other 2 Lab candidates

[Tony Otim]

May 11, 2021 10:58:24 GMT The Bishop said:

May 8, 2021 14:21:31 GMT Tony Otim said:

BRighton & Hove:

Hollingdean & Stanmer - Green gain from Labour
Patcham - Conservative hold, although Greens came surprisingly close

Actual figures?

H&S: Grn 1542, Lab 1262, Con 745, TUSC 54, LD 47, UKIP 35, Ind 24
Patcham: Con 2011, Grn 1733, Lab 879, LD 174, UKIP 50

[middleenglander]

There were 46 vacancies contested in 25 authorities on 06 May - 34 single seat by-elections, 1 two seat by-election and 10 "double" elections. The Conservatives retained 19 of the 20 seats defended, gained 11 seats and lost 1 giving a total of 30.  Labour retained 8 seats, lost 7 and gained 2 with the Liberal Democrats retaining 2, losing 3 and gaining 1.  Independents lost 4 of the 5 seats defended but the Localists retained their 1 seat and a Green gained a seat.

Single / two seat by-elections	Authority	Ward	2021     majority	Changes since 2019
Conservative (26)
- retained (17)	Blackpool	Highfield	27.1%	split ward with Labour in 2019, 2015 & 2011
	Brighton & Hove	Patchwood	5.7%	9% swing to Green
	Cheshire West & Cheshire	Frodsham	5.5%	9% swing to Labour
	Darlington	Hummersknott	8.3%	Green now second
	East Riding	South East Holderness	29.2%	2% swing from Labour
	East Riding	South West Holderness	15.0%	little swing
	North Lincolnshire	Bottesford	31.4%	9% swing from Labour
	North Lincolnshire	Broughton & Appleby (2 seats)	43.6%	3% swing from Labour
	Redcar & Cleveland	Guisborough	26.7%	3 way split ward
	Redcar & Cleveland	Hutton	30.4%	9% swing from Liberal Democrat
	Redcar & Cleveland	Longbeck	17.1%	7% swing from Independent
	South Gloucestershire	Frenchay & Downend	4.6%	Liberal Democrat now second
	Stockton-on-Tees	Hartburn	50.5%	No swing
	Stockton-on-Tees	Western Parishes	39.7%	5% swing from Labour
	Stockton-on-Tees	Yarm	45.0%	split ward - Independent challenge fades
	Swindon	Chisledon & Lawn	33.6%	3% swing from Labour
- gained from Labour (4)	Darlington	Red Hall & Lingfield	9.6%	12% swing from Labour
	North Lincolnshire	Ashby	7.0%	22% swing from Labour
	Stoke-on-Trent	Moorcroft	4.3%	13% swing from Labour
	Telford & Wrekin	Donnington	12.2%	20% swing from Labour
- gained from Liberal Democrat (2)	Bournemouth / Poole	Cranford Heath	1.2%	13% swing from Liberal Democrat
	Stockton-on-Tees	Bishops Garth & Elm Tree	13.9%	21% swing from Liberal Democrat
- gained from Independent (3)	Blackpool	Norbreck	25.4%	16% swing from Independent
	Herefordshire	Newton Farm	13.8%	Conservative wins from 5th place
	Stockton-on-Tees	Billingham West	3.3%	13% swing from Independent
Labour (5)
- retained (5)	Cheshire East	Crewe West	10.8%	11% swing to Conservative
	Cheshire West & Chester	Neston	19.3%	2% swing to Conservative
	Leicester	North Evington	11.0%	22% swing to Conservative
	Luton	High Town	26.3%	9% swing to Conservative
	Telford & Wrekin	Dawley & Aqueduct	4.6%	9% swing to Conservative
Liberal Democrat (2)
- retained (1)	Torbay	Clifton with Maidemway	1.4%	10% swing to Conservative
- gained from Labour (1)	Luton	Round Green	4.8%	split ward
Green gained from Labour (1)	Brighton & Hove	Holligdean & Stanmer	7.5%	split ward
Independent retained (1)	Bournemouth / Poole	Commons	16.6%	13% swing to Conservative
Localist retained (1)	North Somerset	Portishead East	8.4%	23% swing to Conservative

Analysis is complicated because in "double" elections interesting split results can occur.  The convention used is that the top place candidate wins the annual seat with the runner-up the by-election, even though the retiring Councillor may continue but for a shorter term.  The assessment below considers a number of split results.

"Double" elections	Authority	Ward
Conservative (4)
- both seats retained (2)	North East Lincolnshire	Scartho	Freedom Alliance runner up
	Reading	Peppard
- gained from Labour (1)	Derby	Darley	Labour retains annual seat
- gained from Liberal Democrat (1)	Swindon	Wroughton & Witchelstowe	Conservatives win both seats
Labour (5)
- both seats retained (3)	Milton Keynes	Central Milton Keynes
	Milton Keynes	Woughton & Fishermead
	Southend on Sea	Westborough
- gained from Conservative (1)	Peterborough	Fletton & Woodston	Conservative retains annual seat
- gained from Independent (1)	Southend-on-Sea	St Lukes	Conservative gains annual seat from Independent
Liberal Democrat (1)
- retained both seats (1)	North East Lincolnshire	East Marsh

[peterski]

]. Red Hall and Lingfield probably the most deprived ward in Darlington . Labour are struggling to win anywhere in the Tees Valley outside central Middlesbrough at the moment .