Prediction Competition - April 2021

[Toylyyev]

Torfaen UA,
Abersychan: Conservative 12, Labour 27, Propel 9, Independent Hill 25, Independent Tomlinson 27.
Cwmynyscoy: Labour 49, Propel 5, Independent 46.
New Inn: Conservative 58, Labour 32, Independent 10.


Edit: Picking Cwmynyscoy because the county borough by-election page says so.

[iainbhx]

Torfaen UA

Abersychan : LAB 32 IND Hill 27 IND Tomlinson 22 CON 11 PROPEL 8

Cwmyniscoy: LAB 55 IND 32 PROPEL 13

New Inn/Y Dafarn Newydd: CON 60 LAB 33 IND 7

[greenhert]

Torfaen UA, Abersychan: Independent (Tomlinson) 37, Labour 28, Independent (Hill) 19, Conservative 8, Propel 8.
Torfaen UA, Cwmyniscoy: Labour 56, Independent (Harris) 38, Propel 6.
Torfaen UA, New Inn: Conservative 54, Labour 35, Independent (Attfield) 11.

[Tony Otim]

Abersychan: Tomlinson 31.6; Lab 28.7; Hill 18.9; Con 13.6; Propel 7.2
Cwmyniscoy: Lab 56.6; Harris 32.5; Propel 10.9
New Inn: Con 57.2; Lab 25.8; Attfield 17.0

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

TORFAEN UA; Abersychan & Cwmavon
Labour 35%
TOMLINSON (Independent) 31%
HILL, (Independent) 16.5%
Conservative 12%
Propel 5.5%

TORFAEN UA: Cwmyniscoy
Labour 49%
HARRIS, (Independent) 44%
Propel 7%

TORFAEN UA; New Inn
Conservative 55%
Labour 30%
ATTFIELD (Independent) 15%

[Robert Waller]

Torfaen UA

Abersychan : LAB 35 IND Hill 17 IND Tomlinson 30 CON 10 PROPEL 8

Cwmyniscoy: LAB 50 IND 30 PROPEL 20

New Inn/Y Dafarn Newydd: CON 56 LAB 36 IND 8

[yellowperil]

Torfaen,Abersychan:
Con 12, Lab 34, Prop 7, Ind Hill 17, Ind Tomlinson 30
Torfaen, Cwmyniscoy:
Lab 51, Prop 18, Ind 31
Torfaen, New Inn:
Con 57, Lab 33, Ind 10.

[Richard Cromwell]

Abersychan, Torfaen

LAB 31%
IND (Tomlinson) 30%
CON 19%
IND (Hill) 15%
Propel 5%

Cwmyniscoy, Torfaen

LAB 61%
IND 29%
Propel 10%

New Inn, Torfaen

CON 47%
LAB 39%
IND 14%

[bjornhattan]

Hoping for some birthday good luck here!

Torfaen, Abersychan: Lab 32, Propel 3, Con 17, Independent (Hill) 15, Independent (Tomlinson) 33
Torfaen, Cwmyniscoy: Propel 10, Independent (Harris) 32, Lab 58
Torfaen, New Inn: Independent (Attfield) 13, Lab 29, Con 58

[Deleted]

Abersychan & Cwmavon (Torfaen): Lab 35 Ind (T) 30 Ind (H) 25 Con 8 Prop 2
Cwmyniscoy (Torfaen): Lab 50 Ind 40 Prop 10
New Inn (Torfaen): Con 50 Lab 35 Ind 15

[rightleaning]

Abersychan : Lab 34, Ind(T) 30, Ind(H) 15, C 12, Propel 9

Cwmyniscoy: Lab 55, Ind 28, Propel 17

New Inn/Y Dafarn Newydd: C 53, Lab 37, Ind 10

[robbienicoll]

11 entries this week, all on time and correct.

Abersychan and Cwmavon, Torfaen: 7 Labour gain from Independent, with bjornhattan, greenhert, Tony Otim and Toylyyev Independent Tomlinson win.

Cwmyniscoy, Torfaen: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (Toylyyev) to 32% (Cromwell)

New Inn, Torfaen: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (Cromwell) to 31.4% (Tony Otim).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MI1eMt5u6hGqJooJlriyk88YiIAkp2vuFs2n6nvniVs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Although the official results have not been posted yet, I believe I may congratulate a new winner for the month, always good to see!
I think Alien8ted may well have confirmed that his success in the first week was no fluke and has retained first place ...

[yellowperil]

Whisper it quietly, and we should await Robbie's official pronouncement with interest, but if my back of envelope calculations are anything like right (not a given), I think Defenestrated Fipplebox may have done it in some style. I see my calculations seem to accord with those of@robertwaller whose post crossed mine, somaybe that's right.

[robbienicoll]

Results are now updated. Congratulations to Richard Cromwell for the week and Defenestrated Fipplebox for the month!

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Falls of the sofa in surprise.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 9, 2021 15:04:15 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Falls of the sofa in surprise.

Congratulations! - on the win that is, not on falling off the sofa, any fool can do that