Prediction Competition - April 2021

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 4 by-elections for 4 seats during April:
- 1 on 1st April
- 3 on 8th

All 4 of the by-elections are for Welsh authorities, last elected in 2017.
Conservatives defend 2 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 resignation
Labour defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independent defends 1 seat following a death

With all seats now having declared nominations:
Labour are standing a full slate of 4 candidates, Conservatives have 3, Propel have 2 whilst the Liberal Democrats have 1 along with 4 Independents contesting 3 seats
- a total of 14 candidates for 4 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9am on the morning of the election. Apologies for the late post, hopefully this doesn’t affect entries.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

MONMOUTHSHIRE UA; St Kingsmark
Conservative 62%
Liberal Democrat 24%
Labour 14%

[Tony Otim]

Monmouthsire: Con 77.0; Lab 12.3; LD 10.7

[Richard Cromwell]

St Kingsmark, Monmouthshire

CON 69%
LAB 23%
LD 8%

[greenhert]

Monmouthshire UA, St Kingsmark: Con 70, Lab 20, Liberal Democrats 10.

[Deleted]

St Kingsmark (Monmouthshire): Con 72 Lab 20 LD 8

[Robert Waller]

Monmouthshire UA, St Kingsmark: Con 69, Lab 10, Liberal Democrats 21.

[bjornhattan]

Monmouthshire, St Kingsmark: Con 67, Lab 14, LD 19

[yellowperil]

Monmouthshire, St. Kingsmark
Con 70, Lab18, LD 12

[Toylyyev]

Monmouthshire UA, St Kingsmark: Conservative 70, Labour 10, Liberal Democrat 20.

[rightleaning]

Monmouthshire St Kingsmark:- C72, Lab 18, LD 10.

[iainbhx]

Sir Fynwy, St Kingsmark : C 68 LDm 20 Lab 12

[robbienicoll]

11 entries this week with Cromwell joining. All on time and correct.

St Kingsmark, Monmouthshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 38% over Liberal Democrats (alien8ted) to 64.7% over Labour (Tony Otim). 6 have Labour in second place and 5 have Liberal Democrats.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18tg1zyrNkjfy98IRfbi_30Qp5gz9D7MBfkMmvj3Vg88/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[greenhert]

Given that our predictions for the St Kingsmark, Monmouthshire by-election were influenced by previous election figures which were found to be in error after the deadline, would it be possible to discard the results for this week?

[Deleted]

Apr 1, 2021 23:09:02 GMT greenhert said:

Given that our predictions for the St Kingsmark, Monmouthshire by-election were influenced by previous election figures which were found to be in error after the deadline, would it be possible to discard the results for this week?

To be fair we were all at the same disadvantage

[yellowperil]

I personally think the result should hold, and that we are all responsible for our own investigations which ought to be as wide as possible. I may also have made too much of the fact that the Labour candidate was an ex-mayor of Chepstow. Ex-mayoralities as I have observed before don't always work as a plus. I did think that by present day Welsh standards this was the sort of affluent commuter suburb where the Lib Dems ought to be the main challengers to the Tories, but failed to act on that information.

Anyway, upsetting the established order and having a week where Defenestrated Fipplebox comes top and Tony Otim comes last is good for the soul, though I can see the latter might not see it that way.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 2, 2021 4:29:27 GMT yellowperil said:

I personally think the result should hold, and that we are all responsible for our own investigations which ought to be as wide as possible. I may also have made too much of the fact that the Labour candidate was an ex-mayor of Chepstow. Ex-mayoralities as I have observed before don't always work as a plus. I did think that by present day Welsh standards this was the sort of affluent commuter suburb where the Lib Dems ought to be the main challengers to the Tories, but failed to act on that information.

Anyway, upsetting the established order and having a week where Defenestrated Fipplebox comes top and Tony Otim comes last is good for the soul, though I can see the latter might not see it that way.

As it was my post that misled everyone, albeit based on a usually reliable aource, i can have no complaints. Someone else's turn to wear the crown...

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Please can we have the wrong misleading figures every week, its obviously the only way I can be anywhere near accurate.

[iainbhx]

Apr 2, 2021 6:58:50 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 2, 2021 4:29:27 GMT yellowperil said:

I personally think the result should hold, and that we are all responsible for our own investigations which ought to be as wide as possible. I may also have made too much of the fact that the Labour candidate was an ex-mayor of Chepstow. Ex-mayoralities as I have observed before don't always work as a plus. I did think that by present day Welsh standards this was the sort of affluent commuter suburb where the Lib Dems ought to be the main challengers to the Tories, but failed to act on that information.

Anyway, upsetting the established order and having a week where Defenestrated Fipplebox comes top and Tony Otim comes last is good for the soul, though I can see the latter might not see it that way.

As it was my post that misled everyone, albeit based on a usually reliable aource, i can have no complaints. Someone else's turn to wear the crown...

I very much agree with this and the usually reliable source is an incredibly reliable source.

I personally marked Labour down because he now lives near Raglan and I know Chepstow can be quite parochial, but I didn't realise he'd been mayor of there.

[robbienicoll]

Having considered both sides, I'm going to let this stand given that no one got an unfair advantage and the results certainly weren't the worst we've had. If there is a more consequential inaccuracy in future such as a wrong candidate order or a candidate being missed then I'd be likelier to strike it, but I think that's extremely unlikely given LEAP's reliability.