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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 31, 2021 10:35:08 GMT
There appears to be 4 by-elections for 4 seats during April:
- 1 on 1st April
- 3 on 8th
All 4 of the by-elections are for Welsh authorities, last elected in 2017.
Conservatives defend 2 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 resignation
Labour defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independent defends 1 seat following a death
With all seats now having declared nominations:
Labour are standing a full slate of 4 candidates, Conservatives have 3, Propel have 2 whilst the Liberal Democrats have 1 along with 4 Independents contesting 3 seats
- a total of 14 candidates for 4 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9am on the morning of the election. Apologies for the late post, hopefully this doesn’t affect entries.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 31, 2021 11:51:49 GMT
MONMOUTHSHIRE UA; St Kingsmark
Conservative 62%
Liberal Democrat 24%
Labour 14%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 31, 2021 14:19:00 GMT
Monmouthsire: Con 77.0; Lab 12.3; LD 10.7
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Mar 31, 2021 17:50:15 GMT
St Kingsmark, Monmouthshire
CON 69%
LAB 23%
LD 8%
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Post by greenhert on Mar 31, 2021 22:02:28 GMT
Monmouthshire UA, St Kingsmark: Con 70, Lab 20, Liberal Democrats 10.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2021 22:06:41 GMT
St Kingsmark (Monmouthshire): Con 72 Lab 20 LD 8
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 31, 2021 22:46:13 GMT
Monmouthshire UA, St Kingsmark: Con 69, Lab 10, Liberal Democrats 21.
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 31, 2021 22:59:15 GMT
Monmouthshire, St Kingsmark: Con 67, Lab 14, LD 19
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 1, 2021 5:22:49 GMT
Monmouthshire, St. Kingsmark
Con 70, Lab18, LD 12
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Apr 1, 2021 5:39:20 GMT
Monmouthshire UA, St Kingsmark: Conservative 70, Labour 10, Liberal Democrat 20.
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Post by rightleaning on Apr 1, 2021 5:59:42 GMT
Monmouthshire St Kingsmark:- C72, Lab 18, LD 10.
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 1, 2021 6:32:36 GMT
Sir Fynwy, St Kingsmark : C 68 LDm 20 Lab 12
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 1, 2021 21:59:11 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Apr 1, 2021 23:09:02 GMT
Given that our predictions for the St Kingsmark, Monmouthshire by-election were influenced by previous election figures which were found to be in error after the deadline, would it be possible to discard the results for this week?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2021 23:44:44 GMT
Given that our predictions for the St Kingsmark, Monmouthshire by-election were influenced by previous election figures which were found to be in error after the deadline, would it be possible to discard the results for this week? To be fair we were all at the same disadvantage |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 2, 2021 4:29:27 GMT
I personally think the result should hold, and that we are all responsible for our own investigations which ought to be as wide as possible. I may also have made too much of the fact that the Labour candidate was an ex-mayor of Chepstow. Ex-mayoralities as I have observed before don't always work as a plus. I did think that by present day Welsh standards this was the sort of affluent commuter suburb where the Lib Dems ought to be the main challengers to the Tories, but failed to act on that information. Anyway, upsetting the established order and having a week where Defenestrated Fipplebox comes top and Tony Otim comes last is good for the soul, though I can see the latter might not see it that way. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 2, 2021 6:58:50 GMT
I personally think the result should hold, and that we are all responsible for our own investigations which ought to be as wide as possible. I may also have made too much of the fact that the Labour candidate was an ex-mayor of Chepstow. Ex-mayoralities as I have observed before don't always work as a plus. I did think that by present day Welsh standards this was the sort of affluent commuter suburb where the Lib Dems ought to be the main challengers to the Tories, but failed to act on that information. Anyway, upsetting the established order and having a week where Defenestrated Fipplebox comes top and Tony Otim comes last is good for the soul, though I can see the latter might not see it that way. As it was my post that misled everyone, albeit based on a usually reliable aource, i can have no complaints. Someone else's turn to wear the crown... |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 2, 2021 7:15:57 GMT
Please can we have the wrong misleading figures every week, its obviously the only way I can be anywhere near accurate.  |
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 2, 2021 7:27:54 GMT
I personally think the result should hold, and that we are all responsible for our own investigations which ought to be as wide as possible. I may also have made too much of the fact that the Labour candidate was an ex-mayor of Chepstow. Ex-mayoralities as I have observed before don't always work as a plus. I did think that by present day Welsh standards this was the sort of affluent commuter suburb where the Lib Dems ought to be the main challengers to the Tories, but failed to act on that information. Anyway, upsetting the established order and having a week where Defenestrated Fipplebox comes top and Tony Otim comes last is good for the soul, though I can see the latter might not see it that way. As it was my post that misled everyone, albeit based on a usually reliable aource, i can have no complaints. Someone else's turn to wear the crown... I very much agree with this and the usually reliable source is an incredibly reliable source. I personally marked Labour down because he now lives near Raglan and I know Chepstow can be quite parochial, but I didn't realise he'd been mayor of there. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 2, 2021 13:45:57 GMT
Having considered both sides, I'm going to let this stand given that no one got an unfair advantage and the results certainly weren't the worst we've had. If there is a more consequential inaccuracy in future such as a wrong candidate order or a candidate being missed then I'd be likelier to strike it, but I think that's extremely unlikely given LEAP's reliability.
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