|
|
Post by greenchristian on Mar 17, 2021 11:02:06 GMT
How much has actually been wagered? I can't imagine it's much which obviously skews things. I'm surprised, though, how far ahead of the Conservatives Labour are in this betting market. According to some, this is a certain Conservative gain. I guess this just shows that the pundits who buy into (or at least promote) the hype about the so-called "red wall" aren't putting their money where their mouth is. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 17, 2021 11:02:33 GMT
How much has actually been wagered? I can't imagine it's much which obviously skews things. I'm surprised, though, how far ahead of the Conservatives Labour are in this betting market. According to some, this is a certain Conservative gain. Had a look at the 'Northern Independence Party' too. Their Twitter comes across as a bunch of crackpots and weirdos. Though they have raised £1350 already with a crowdfunder. twitter.com/FreeNorthNowI agree they sound like a bunch of loons. I think the money on Labour just reflects the generous odds which were initially offered - I would have but a bet on them myself at 13/8 or whatever it started out as. Once the odds on the Conservatives drift out to that level I'd expect more people to put money on them. Of course those who suggest this is a 'certain Conservative gain' are those who don't know what they're talking about |
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 17, 2021 11:21:44 GMT
Whatever happened to the previous MP for Hartlepool Iain Wright? He was one of the bright young things of the party for a while. Of course he also once played for Arsenal. |
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Mar 17, 2021 12:02:29 GMT
King Arthur in the shape of the socialist Labour Party will stand and get more than a few votes. Eh? He's 83. If the SLP had a candidate (which I doubt), it would be someone younger - and probably more local. Saw him in Sheffield station a couple of years ago. Looked completely confused wandering around the concourse for around ten minutes on his own . A severely doubt he would be in the position to run for election. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Mar 17, 2021 12:04:00 GMT
Not everyone finds being an MP rewarding, particularly in opposition. Wright works for the Institute of Chartered Accountants, though I’ve no idea what he actually does. In my day job I actually had some indirect dealings with him when he was a minister towards the tail-end of the New Labour era. I found him highly effective and well on top of his brief - irritatingly so, from my point of view, since I didn't agree with what he was trying to do.
I don't think he was very much in sympathy with the glorious Corbynite red dawn that overtook Labour after 2015. He was one of several Labour MPs that announced their retirements in the run-up to the the 2017 GE and Labour's widely-anticipated hammering therein (which of course failed to materialize - he'd almost certainly have held the seat if he'd fought it).
The thing is lots of MPs are highly competent, with strong academic credentials, and important work background, as well as the compulsory political experience. However this seems to be an active disqualification for ministerial office. Increasingly the latter is restricted to the growing army of SPADs to whom none of the above apply. Personal connections I assume. |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 17, 2021 13:01:19 GMT
In my day job I actually had some indirect dealings with him when he was a minister towards the tail-end of the New Labour era. I found him highly effective and well on top of his brief - irritatingly so, from my point of view, since I didn't agree with what he was trying to do. I don't think he was very much in sympathy with the glorious Corbynite red dawn that overtook Labour after 2015. He was one of several Labour MPs that announced their retirements in the run-up to the the 2017 GE and Labour's widely-anticipated hammering therein (which of course failed to materialize - he'd almost certainly have held the seat if he'd fought it).
The thing is lots of MPs are highly competent, with strong academic credentials, and important work background, as well as the compulsory political experience. However this seems to be an active disqualification for ministerial office. Increasingly the latter is restricted to the growing army of SPADs to whom none of the above apply. Personal connections I assume. He didn't rise as high as expected and before becoming an MP was an accountant. Looking at his current job I'd assume he was headhunted given his parliamentary experience and professional background I would also imagine it's a six figure salary! |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Mar 17, 2021 14:30:27 GMT
King Arthur in the shape of the socialist Labour Party will stand and get more than a few votes. Eh? He's 83. If the SLP had a candidate (which I doubt), it would be someone younger - and probably more local. They stood in 2019 and got 1.4% with 494 votes. |
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591 
|
Post by bsjmcr on Mar 17, 2021 15:25:44 GMT
Though is not a Corbynite unlike Pidcock (whom I still can't fathom why she was ramped up so much as a future leadership contender if she hadn't lost, I doubt that most people have heard of her and clearly wasn't and despite being local also managed to lose on quite a large swing Pidcock definitely wasn’t local. She lost her Northumberland council seat weeks before she won a Durham constituency. Didn't know the divides between the different north east counties were that fierce! I know it's best to have someone born and bred in the constituency but as that isn't always possible, thought at least someone from the 'north east' - the right accent, would have been local enough or have somewhat more affinity and be more relatable to the area than someone straight from London. Mandelson did do very well for himself in Hartlepool over time it appears, though, so perhaps there are exceptions as people bed themselves into the community and may become liked over time - there is a C4 report on Youtube of him canvassing extensively there in 2001 prior to his infamous speech. The truly local Tory didn't make a dent to his majority. I often have to remind myself to at least be grateful that the new MP for Bury South is at least from Lancashire and so northern, albeit new to the constituency, whereas the new Bolton North East MP I couldn't find any prior connections to the north of England to speak of, he comes from N.Ireland. I've often felt that the success of 'New Labour' as it were within keeping up the 'red wall' with huge majorities despite people's accusations of 'losing Labour principles etc...' could be down to the top team having a strong base across the country and the North - so despite not sounding like being from there, at least having some connection and ability to understand people from there and thus remained popular. Blair of Sedgefield (his prior connection being going to school in Durham IIRC?), Brown in Scotland, and others such as Prescott and Alan Johnson in Hull, Straw in Blackburn, etc. Whereas I'm pretty sure the vast majority of Corbyn's cabinet were literally the Islington (and environs) elite - mostly Londoners with some exceptions such as Bailey, Rayner, Lavery, Burgon, etc. |
|
|
|
Post by gerrardwinstanley on Mar 17, 2021 15:39:03 GMT
Pidcock definitely wasn’t local. She lost her Northumberland council seat weeks before she won a Durham constituency. Didn't know the divides between the different north east counties were that fierce! I know it's best to have someone born and bred in the constituency but as that isn't always possible, thought at least someone from the 'north east' - the right accent, would have been local enough or have somewhat more affinity and be more relatable to the area than someone straight from London. Mandelson did do very well for himself in Hartlepool over time it appears, though, so perhaps there are exceptions as people bed themselves into the community and may become liked over time - there is a C4 report on Youtube of him canvassing extensively there in 2001 prior to his infamous speech. The truly local Tory didn't make a dent to his majority. I often have to remind myself to at least be grateful that the new MP for Bury South is at least from Lancashire and so northern, albeit new to the constituency, whereas the new Bolton North East MP I couldn't find any prior connections to the north of England to speak of, he comes from N.Ireland. I've often felt that the success of 'New Labour' as it were within keeping up the 'red wall' with huge majorities despite people's accusations of 'losing Labour principles etc...' could be down to the top team having a strong base across the country and the North - so despite not sounding like being from there, at least having some connection and ability to understand people from there and thus remained popular. Blair of Sedgefield (his prior connection being going to school in Durham IIRC?), Brown in Scotland, and others such as Prescott and Alan Johnson in Hull, Straw in Blackburn, etc. Whereas I'm pretty sure the vast majority of Corbyn's cabinet were literally the Islington (and environs) elite - mostly Londoners with some exceptions such as Bailey, Rayner, Lavery, Burgon, etc. Islington elite? You've obviously never been to Finsbury Park. This "myth" is not only lazy but dangerous. |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 17, 2021 15:48:36 GMT
Didn't know the divides between the different north east counties were that fierce! I know it's best to have someone born and bred in the constituency but as that isn't always possible, thought at least someone from the 'north east' - the right accent, would have been local enough or have somewhat more affinity and be more relatable to the area than someone straight from London. Mandelson did do very well for himself in Hartlepool over time it appears, though, so perhaps there are exceptions as people bed themselves into the community and may become liked over time - there is a C4 report on Youtube of him canvassing extensively there in 2001 prior to his infamous speech. The truly local Tory didn't make a dent to his majority. I often have to remind myself to at least be grateful that the new MP for Bury South is at least from Lancashire and so northern, albeit new to the constituency, whereas the new Bolton North East MP I couldn't find any prior connections to the north of England to speak of, he comes from N.Ireland. I've often felt that the success of 'New Labour' as it were within keeping up the 'red wall' with huge majorities despite people's accusations of 'losing Labour principles etc...' could be down to the top team having a strong base across the country and the North - so despite not sounding like being from there, at least having some connection and ability to understand people from there and thus remained popular. Blair of Sedgefield (his prior connection being going to school in Durham IIRC?), Brown in Scotland, and others such as Prescott and Alan Johnson in Hull, Straw in Blackburn, etc. Whereas I'm pretty sure the vast majority of Corbyn's cabinet were literally the Islington (and environs) elite - mostly Londoners with some exceptions such as Bailey, Rayner, Lavery, Burgon, etc. Islington elite? You've obviously never been to Finsbury Park. This "myth" is not only lazy but dangerous. Peter Dowd, Andy McDonald - I think the idea that some of these people mentioned were any less London is pretty daft. Blair came from Durham, educated in Edinburgh but had been based in London for years. Politics does gravitate towards London. |
|
sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
|
Post by sirbenjamin on Mar 17, 2021 15:49:47 GMT
How much has actually been wagered? I can't imagine it's much which obviously skews things. I'm surprised, though, how far ahead of the Conservatives Labour are in this betting market. According to some, this is a certain Conservative gain. I guess this just shows that the pundits who buy into (or at least promote) the hype about the so-called "red wall" aren't putting their money where their mouth is.
Probably the opposite - people like me thought the Labour price was value, backed them, and the odds came in fairly sharpish.
People who bet with their hearts create the situations in which people who bet with their heads can find value. This is probably truer in politics than any other field on which one can gamble.
I'm slightly on the pessimistic side of neutral myself, in that I'll bet on things I don't want to happen as a sort of 'life hedge'. This means I surrender a bit of value here and there, but I'm happy to do so if it only happens when I otherwise get to enjoy good outcomes. E.g. If Cov are relegated this season I'll make a profit of about £3,500. If they stay up I'll be down about £650. I'm not unhappy with that.
'Optimistic' punters get a double reward when they win and a double defeat when they don't, so it's more exposed position generally. But it goes some away to explaining strange movements in betting markets, especially politics.
|
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,265
|
Post by WJ on Mar 17, 2021 16:05:02 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by gerrardwinstanley on Mar 17, 2021 16:07:34 GMT
Islington elite? You've obviously never been to Finsbury Park. This "myth" is not only lazy but dangerous. Peter Dowd, Andy McDonald - I think the idea that some of these people mentioned were any less London is pretty daft. Blair came from Durham, educated in Edinburgh but had been based in London for years. Politics does gravitate towards London. With Parliament being in London, it's somewhat inevitable that politics does gravitate towards it. I do, however, find "Islington elite" (or "north London metropolitan liberal elite") a tiresome cliché, not only because it doesn't reflect the real socio-economic realities of north London. Indeed, it cradles the idea of a "sneering metropolitan elite" in cahoots together, thus playing on dangerous conspiracy theories. And it is often used, incredibly, by the likes of Johnson, who himself lived in Islington. Put simply, it's a right-wing slur. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 17, 2021 16:21:41 GMT
Pidcock definitely wasn’t local. She lost her Northumberland council seat weeks before she won a Durham constituency. Didn't know the divides between the different north east counties were that fierce! I know it's best to have someone born and bred in the constituency but as that isn't always possible, thought at least someone from the 'north east' - the right accent, would have been local enough or have somewhat more affinity and be more relatable to the area than someone straight from London. Mandelson did do very well for himself in Hartlepool over time it appears, though, so perhaps there are exceptions as people bed themselves into the community and may become liked over time - there is a C4 report on Youtube of him canvassing extensively there in 2001 prior to his infamous speech. The truly local Tory didn't make a dent to his majority. I often have to remind myself to at least be grateful that the new MP for Bury South is at least from Lancashire and so northern, albeit new to the constituency, whereas the new Bolton North East MP I couldn't find any prior connections to the north of England to speak of, he comes from N.Ireland. Wait till you find out where the Labour MP for Bolton South East comes from.. |
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
|
Post by bsjmcr on Mar 17, 2021 16:26:33 GMT
Peter Dowd, Andy McDonald - I think the idea that some of these people mentioned were any less London is pretty daft. Blair came from Durham, educated in Edinburgh but had been based in London for years. Politics does gravitate towards London. With Parliament being in London, it's somewhat inevitable that politics does gravitate towards it. I do, however, find "Islington elite" (or "north London metropolitan liberal elite") a tiresome cliché, not only because it doesn't reflect the real socio-economic realities of north London. Indeed, it cradles the idea of a "sneering metropolitan elite" in cahoots together, thus playing on dangerous conspiracy theories. And it is often used, incredibly, by the likes of Johnson, who himself lived in Islington. Put simply, it's a right-wing slur. I probably should have used inverted commas. I am most certainly not right wing, but I was trying to make the point of the possible significance of the geographical distribution of cabinet members as it were, and I don’t think anyone can deny that the loss of places like Leigh were, in addition to Brexit, because they felt left behind and London and environs is though I understand has issues of poverty of its own, it is still the centre of jobs, wealth, infrastructure and prosperity in general while the north sees a fraction of that, Hartlepool included. And though I like Thornberry personally, many would feel she is the embodiment of the ‘sneering’ class after flag-gate and her apparent spat with Caroline Flint. And it just so happens she is the parliamentary neighbour of JC. Though Starmer is from London too, I think his cabinet is spot on in terms of diversity in all forms, especially geographically. For example Replacing RLB with Kate Green who represents the constituency across the river (and has experience with youth projects) an was excellent idea. It puts the Tory cabinet to shame, and there is no shortage of northern tories as an excuse either. And as for Richmond, I’m sure it will be a running joke for years to come that Mr Sunak ended up there thinking it was Richmond Park. Maybe Nigel Evans also thought Ribble Valley is in Wales? |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 17, 2021 16:37:32 GMT
Peter Dowd, Andy McDonald - I think the idea that some of these people mentioned were any less London is pretty daft. Blair came from Durham, educated in Edinburgh but had been based in London for years. Politics does gravitate towards London. With Parliament being in London, it's somewhat inevitable that politics does gravitate towards it. I do, however, find "Islington elite" (or "north London metropolitan liberal elite") a tiresome cliché, not only because it doesn't reflect the real socio-economic realities of north London. Indeed, it cradles the idea of a "sneering metropolitan elite" in cahoots together, thus playing on dangerous conspiracy theories. And it is often used, incredibly, by the likes of Johnson, who himself lived in Islington. Put simply, it's a right-wing slur. Totally agree. It also hides the fact that London as a particularly cosmopolitan area has challenges of its own - lots of young single people,, greater diversity in all sorts of levels. More extreme. Islington a classic example. The two million quid plus villas of Barnsbury are walking distance from the huge blocks of tenement flats nearby |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 17, 2021 16:42:15 GMT
That really would be a gift to the Tories. Unfortunately Labour are very likely to be that stupid. And really, someone so associated with Remain is not a good choice, particularly right now. Other issues clearly are not of concern. They did elect an openly gay MP for long enough. And I recall the local Tory using the slogan "vote for Gus, he's one of us" with the clear implication that Mandelson was one of 'them' |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Mar 17, 2021 16:53:07 GMT
Whatever happened to the previous MP for Hartlepool Iain Wright? He was one of the bright young things of the party for a while. Of course he also once played for Arsenal. And Greenwich Borough. And Paliss. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Mar 17, 2021 17:24:32 GMT
King Arthur in the shape of the socialist Labour Party will stand and get more than a few votes. Depends what you mean by few, I guess. Scargill himself got 912 (2.4%) in 2001.
In the 2004 by election 95 votes saw the SLP finish behind Fathers For Justice, the National Front and Respect (as well as the main parties).
In 2005 373 votes saw the SLP beat the Greens, the Independent and the Loonies, but, in a portent of things to come, behind UKIP
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Mar 17, 2021 17:44:23 GMT
Result of the Hartlepool by-election, 1st June 1943: T. G. Greenwell (Conservative) 13,333 E. F. Burton (Common Wealth) 3,634 O. Lupton (Independent People) 2,351 W. R. Hipwell (Independent Progressive) 1,510 Wasn't the constituency called The Hartlepools then? it had that name from 1867 to 1974. The Commonwealth candidate was Elaine Burton later Labour MP for Coventry South (1950-9).
It's worth noting how Conservative the seat was in a wartime by election. Labour only won in 1945 by 245 votes, and lost it in 1959, regaining it in 1964.
|
|
