Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 16, 2021 12:19:40 GMT
Has this been formally confirmed? The reason I ask is that Sky News has it on their ticker but BBC News hasn't mentioned it once. The only reference that Alexa can find is a report that he was accused of "inappropriate contact" with a female researcher at Westminster and there has been no discussion on BBC Radio Newcastle yet.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on Mar 16, 2021 12:22:53 GMT
Whatever the ‘populist radical right’ are called these days do have genuine strength at a local level here so should be able to hold onto more of the Brexit Party vote than you would expect. I would also suggest that Mike Hill had a decent personal vote given the relatively good performances here for Labour in 2017 and 2019. Certainly, it seems the sort of seat that should not have seen a substantial increase in its Labour majority in 2017 and only a 10% drop in 2019. Finally, the Brexit Party vote here will have been very Tory in 2019, but the decreasing salience of Brexit and general swingyness of the NOTA vote means that Labour could get a surprisingly decent chunk of it if they are doing significantly better nationally than 2019 (big if atm).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 16, 2021 12:26:19 GMT
Just about the worst Labour-held seat imaginable for a by-election to take place in. I can think of a few other possibles tbh. And the flip side of this is that a Labour hold would be the sort of boost Starmer could do with at the moment. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 16, 2021 12:26:54 GMT
Has this been formally confirmed? The reason I ask is that Sky News has it on their ticker but BBC News hasn't mentioned it once. The only reference that Alexa can find is a report that he was accused of "inappropriate contact" with a female researcher at Westminster and there has been no discussion on BBC Radio Newcastle yet. The BBC famously have a policy of waiting for two reliable sources whereas Sky News only requires one reliable source. |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,265
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Post by WJ on Mar 16, 2021 12:26:57 GMT
Has this been formally confirmed? The reason I ask is that Sky News has it on their ticker but BBC News hasn't mentioned it once. The only reference that Alexa can find is a report that he was accused of "inappropriate contact" with a female researcher at Westminster and there has been no discussion on BBC Radio Newcastle yet. |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,265
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Post by WJ on Mar 16, 2021 12:28:31 GMT
Just about the worst Labour-held seat imaginable for a by-election to take place in. And the flip side of that is that a Labour hold would be the sort of boost that Starmer could do with at the moment. Depends how he holds it. A hold with a reduced majority can easily be spun as a Starmer failure. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 16, 2021 12:29:55 GMT
It could be, but the hype that is likely to come in the coming weeks might easily negate that.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 16, 2021 12:32:03 GMT
For people wondering why he is leaving. I had no idea about this. What an awful MP. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 16, 2021 12:33:08 GMT
What are the chances of a Peter Mandelson vs Arthur Scargill rematch from 2001  Zero. Given the circumstances of the resignation, I would expect the mainstream parties to field female candidates. If Laura Pidcock applied to contest the seat, that would be interesting. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 16, 2021 12:33:20 GMT
Just about the worst Labour-held seat imaginable for a by-election to take place in. I can think of a few other possibles tbh. And the flip side of that is that a Labour hold would be the sort of boost that Starmer could do with at the moment. If he loses, do you think he'd quit? |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on Mar 16, 2021 12:35:05 GMT
I hope Boris keeps us in lockdown if for no other reason than to minimise the number of vox pops with people who have not voted Labour for years, have no intention of voting Labour, but are nonetheless interviewed in their droves to tell us that Labour are in danger of losing LIFELONG LABOUR VOTERS in the RED WALL.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 16, 2021 12:35:35 GMT
I can think of a few other possibles tbh. And the flip side of that is that a Labour hold would be the sort of boost that Starmer could do with at the moment. If he loses, do you think he'd quit? There would certainly be questions asked, beyond that it is hard to even speculate at the minute. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Mar 16, 2021 12:38:27 GMT
I can think of a few other possibles tbh. And the flip side of that is that a Labour hold would be the sort of boost that Starmer could do with at the moment. If he loses, do you think he'd quit? No, Starmer still has time on his side. A lot of the speculation stems from the fact that politicos have yet to adjust to a situation where the government has a solid majority and the next election is still years away. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2021 12:41:00 GMT
I wasn't aware of Mike Hill's troubles; but then I wasn't aware of Mike Hill.
I can't imagine Reform UK replicating the Brexit Party's support here even with Richard Tice.
Labour is generally doing better in the polls, relatively speaking, so should see an increased vote share, but it'll be interesting to see if the Conservatives can take some of that third party vote.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2021 12:42:05 GMT
I hope Boris keeps us in lockdown if for no other reason than to minimise the number of vox pops with people who have not voted Labour for years, have no intention of voting Labour, but are nonetheless interviewed in their droves to tell us that Labour are in danger of losing LIFELONG LABOUR VOTERS in the RED WALL. They seemed pretty good forecasters of what happened in 2019, to be fair. |
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Post by matureleft on Mar 16, 2021 12:42:08 GMT
Not the most attractive context for a by-election anywhere. I'd guess that some thought has been given to a candidate and there'll be an accelerated process to fit the timetable.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 16, 2021 12:43:47 GMT
I hope Boris keeps us in lockdown if for no other reason than to minimise the number of vox pops with people who have not voted Labour for years, have no intention of voting Labour, but are nonetheless interviewed in their droves to tell us that Labour are in danger of losing LIFELONG LABOUR VOTERS in the RED WALL. They seemed pretty good forecasters of what happened in 2019, to be fair. Even if true, a classic of the "correlation is not causation" variety. Not least because they were often wildly misleading just two years earlier. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 16, 2021 12:46:10 GMT
Hartlepool had the second highest Tory + Brexit Party percentage in a seat that wasn't won by the Tories. Barnsley East was slightly higher.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2021 12:46:15 GMT
Whatever the ‘populist radical right’ are called these days do have genuine strength at a local level here so should be able to hold onto more of the Brexit Party vote than you would expect. I would also suggest that Mike Hill had a decent personal vote given the relatively good performances here for Labour in 2017 and 2019. Certainly, it seems the sort of seat that should not have seen a substantial increase in its Labour majority in 2017 and only a 10% drop in 2019. Finally, the Brexit Party vote here will have been very Tory in 2019, but the decreasing salience of Brexit and general swingyness of the NOTA vote means that Labour could get a surprisingly decent chunk of it if they are doing significantly better nationally than 2019 (big if atm). Only three English seats in had a lower winning vote share in 2019 (Sheffield Hallam, Barnsley East and Hemsworth). 2017 was a bit better but several similar seats did see decent increases in the Labour vote at that election |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,687
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Post by mboy on Mar 16, 2021 12:47:12 GMT
What are the chances of a Peter Mandelson vs Arthur Scargill rematch from 2001 Zero. Given the circumstances of the resignation, I would expect the mainstream parties to field female candidates. If Laura Pidcock applied to contest the seat, that would be interesting. An interesting proposition. I imagine Starmer and team will want to ensure she doesn't get back into the Commons to cause trouble. |
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