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Post by carlton43 on Mar 19, 2021 10:49:33 GMT
If the Tories don't win Hartlepool it'll be because of a successful focus on the NHS by the Labour candidate. So they need to make sure the agenda isn't only on that subject.
But the fact that this is even a point of conversation at all when Labour have been out of power since 2010 is amazing in itself. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 19, 2021 11:30:56 GMT
If the Tories don't win Hartlepool it'll be because of a successful focus on the NHS by the Labour candidate. So they need to make sure the agenda isn't only on that subject. Tories may well have been planning to go big on vaccines in this campaign, Labour putting forward a doctor who has worked through this pandemic might blunt that? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 19, 2021 13:18:53 GMT
As I said this outfit is a magnet for hard left loons. It mostly seems like a Twitter based, Zoomer echo chamber, but could cause a problem for Labour if they take a significant chunk of left-Labour (and Rad Fem) support
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Post by peterm on Mar 19, 2021 15:03:14 GMT
Is this person the same person Thelma D Walker as the MP for Colne Valley 2017-2019?
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Post by justin124 on Mar 19, 2021 15:12:47 GMT
The idea that feelings re-Brexit and Corbyn run anything like as deep today as at the end of 2019 is perverse. Both issues have ceased to be salient outside the ranks of political anoraks.
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Post by rivers10 on Mar 19, 2021 15:16:32 GMT
Is this person the same person Thelma D Walker as the MP for Colne Valley 2017-2019? Yeah she quit the Labour Party about 8 months ago, has been very critical of Starmer's leadership and the current direction of the party One of many examples the moderates should take note of, it isn't just the cranks quitting Labour, Thelma had been a party member for decades, was very well respected in the CLP and apparently Lucy Powell of all people tried to intervene to get Thelma to stay in the party but to no avail When your hemorrhaging support on your entire left flank something has gone horribly wrong |
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Post by justin124 on Mar 19, 2021 15:21:56 GMT
Is this person the same person Thelma D Walker as the MP for Colne Valley 2017-2019? Yeah she quit the Labour Party about 8 months ago, has been very critical of Starmer's leadership and the current direction of the party One of many examples the moderates should take note of, it isn't just the cranks quitting Labour, Thelma had been a party member for decades, was very well respected in the CLP and apparently Lucy Powell of all people tried to intervene to get Thelma to stay in the party but to no avail When your hemorrhaging support on your entire left flank something has gone horribly wrong It seems odd that she would leave over Starmer when she was prepared to tolerate Blair! |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Mar 19, 2021 15:24:11 GMT
... the fact this is heartland Labour Durham held by the party for most of the past 100-years, etc. Don't disagree with the general premise, but I was surprised to see Hartlepool(s) has only been a Labour seat since 1964 and was a Tory seat before 1945 and from '59-64. Does anyone know why this was as AFAIK it was an industrial steel-making town not dissimilar to Redcar at this time? |
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Post by justin124 on Mar 19, 2021 15:29:21 GMT
... the fact this is heartland Labour Durham held by the party for most of the past 100-years, etc. Don't disagree with the general premise, but I was surprised to see Hartlepool(s) has only been a Labour seat since 1964 and was a Tory seat before 1945 and from '59-64. Does anyone know why this was as AFAIK it was an industrial steel-making town not dissimilar to Redcar at this time? Also pretty small Labour majorities pre- 1959. As late as February 1974 the Labour majority was similar to 2019. |
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Post by rivers10 on Mar 19, 2021 15:31:15 GMT
Yeah she quit the Labour Party about 8 months ago, has been very critical of Starmer's leadership and the current direction of the party One of many examples the moderates should take note of, it isn't just the cranks quitting Labour, Thelma had been a party member for decades, was very well respected in the CLP and apparently Lucy Powell of all people tried to intervene to get Thelma to stay in the party but to no avail When your hemorrhaging support on your entire left flank something has gone horribly wrong It seems odd that she would leave over Starmer when she was prepared to tolerate Blair! This point has been raised many times and the answer is very simple Blair was an extreme solution to Labour's woes in the 90's. Appeal to middle class voters by putting up an ultra moderate, an antithesis to the looney left. Many in the party didn't like it but it at least got results Problem today is its the exact same solution to a totally different set of issues. Labour doesn't need to win Wirral Woman its all about the Red Wall while keeping their metropolitan urban base on side. As a result the left can clearly see that the moderates sole offer of kneejerk left bashing isn't going to work and will actually probably make things worse and why stay in a doomed party that is totally convinced your very existence is the reason they lost? |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Mar 19, 2021 15:33:01 GMT
It seems odd that she would leave over Starmer when she was prepared to tolerate Blair! This point has been raised many times and the answer is very simple Blair was an extreme solution to Labour's woes in the 90's. Appeal to middle class voters by putting up an ultra moderate, an antithesis to the looney left. Many in the party didn't like it but it at least got results Problem today is its the exact same solution to a totally different set of issues. Labour doesn't need to win Wirral Woman its all about the Red Wall while keeping their metropolitan urban base on side. As a result the left can clearly see that the moderates sole offer of kneejerk left bashing isn't going to work and will actually probably make things worse and why stay in a doomed party that is totally convinced your very existence is the reason they lost? I think you're overanalysing – this woman is clearly a nutter if she's willing to endorse the Northern Independence Party. |
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Post by grahammurray on Mar 19, 2021 15:35:12 GMT
It seems odd that she would leave over Starmer when she was prepared to tolerate Blair! This point has been raised many times and the answer is very simple Blair was an extreme solution to Labour's woes in the 90's. Appeal to middle class voters by putting up an ultra moderate, an antithesis to the looney left. Many in the party didn't like it but it at least got results Problem today is its the exact same solution to a totally different set of issues. Labour doesn't need to win Wirral Woman its all about the Red Wall while keeping their metropolitan urban base on side. As a result the left can clearly see that the moderates sole offer of kneejerk left bashing isn't going to work and will actually probably make things worse and why stay in a doomed party that is totally convinced your very existence is the reason they lost? Labour needs to win back the Red Wall just to get back to where it was pre 2019. |
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Post by rivers10 on Mar 19, 2021 15:36:24 GMT
This point has been raised many times and the answer is very simple Blair was an extreme solution to Labour's woes in the 90's. Appeal to middle class voters by putting up an ultra moderate, an antithesis to the looney left. Many in the party didn't like it but it at least got results Problem today is its the exact same solution to a totally different set of issues. Labour doesn't need to win Wirral Woman its all about the Red Wall while keeping their metropolitan urban base on side. As a result the left can clearly see that the moderates sole offer of kneejerk left bashing isn't going to work and will actually probably make things worse and why stay in a doomed party that is totally convinced your very existence is the reason they lost? I think you're overanalysing – this woman is clearly a nutter if she's willing to endorse the Northern Independence Party. Is endorsing NIP sensible? No Is Thelma a nutter? Also no and if she is she duped most of the PLP since they all loved her despite being on the left, not to mention she was a former headteacher so she's duped countless teachers and parents as well |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 19, 2021 15:36:24 GMT
This point has been raised many times and the answer is very simple Blair was an extreme solution to Labour's woes in the 90's. Appeal to middle class voters by putting up an ultra moderate, an antithesis to the looney left. Many in the party didn't like it but it at least got results Problem today is its the exact same solution to a totally different set of issues. Labour doesn't need to win Wirral Woman its all about the Red Wall while keeping their metropolitan urban base on side. As a result the left can clearly see that the moderates sole offer of kneejerk left bashing isn't going to work and will actually probably make things worse and why stay in a doomed party that is totally convinced your very existence is the reason they lost? I think you're overanalysing – this woman is clearly a nutter if she's willing to endorse the Northern Independence Party. Frankly I think it's far more "nutty" to endorse someone selected entirely undemocratically who holds opposite views to the majority of the electorate on the most important issue of the last election. I don't know what is likely to happen but I very much hope Labour lose. Such cyncism and manipulation does not deserve reward |
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Post by justin124 on Mar 19, 2021 15:37:30 GMT
It seems odd that she would leave over Starmer when she was prepared to tolerate Blair! This point has been raised many times and the answer is very simple Blair was an extreme solution to Labour's woes in the 90's. Appeal to middle class voters by putting up an ultra moderate, an antithesis to the looney left. Many in the party didn't like it but it at least got results Problem today is its the exact same solution to a totally different set of issues. Labour doesn't need to win Wirral Woman its all about the Red Wall while keeping their metropolitan urban base on side. As a result the left can clearly see that the moderates sole offer of kneejerk left bashing isn't going to work and will actually probably make things worse and why stay in a doomed party that is totally convinced your very existence is the reason they lost? But it is far from clear - though this by election may provide good evidence - how far the conditions of late 2019 still prevail. Polling has Labour 4% or 5% higher now even in the context of a Tory vaccination boost. Were a GE being held now , quite a few of the 2019 losses would likely be reversed. I am thinking of both Bury seats, Hewood & Middleton, Blyth Valley ,Bolton NE, Durham NW, Dewsbury, Warrington S and Leigh. |
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Post by rivers10 on Mar 19, 2021 15:38:00 GMT
I think you're overanalysing – this woman is clearly a nutter if she's willing to endorse the Northern Independence Party. Frankly I think it's far more "nutty" to endorse someone selected entirely undemocratically who holds opposite views to the majority of the electorate on the most important issue of the last election. I don't know what is likely to happen but I very much hope Labour lose. Such cyncism and manipulation does not deserve reward I dont "hope" we lose but boy do we deserve to |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Mar 19, 2021 15:38:05 GMT
I think you're overanalysing – this woman is clearly a nutter if she's willing to endorse the Northern Independence Party. Frankly I think it's far more "nutty" to endorse someone selected entirely undemocratically who holds opposite views to the majority of the electorate on the most important issue of the last election. I don't know what is likely to happen but I very much hope Labour lose. Such cyncism and manipulation does not deserve reward Are by-election candidates often selected democratically? Genuine question |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 19, 2021 15:39:21 GMT
Frankly I think it's far more "nutty" to endorse someone selected entirely undemocratically who holds opposite views to the majority of the electorate on the most important issue of the last election. I don't know what is likely to happen but I very much hope Labour lose. Such cyncism and manipulation does not deserve reward Are by-election candidates often selected democratically? Genuine question In Labour's case, not very, but this one takes the biscuit! |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Mar 19, 2021 15:45:17 GMT
Are by-election candidates often selected democratically? Genuine question In Labour's case, not very, but this one takes the biscuit! Why? I think everyone is taking this a bit out of proportion. I would obviously have preferred someone closer to my own views, but Paul Williams gained a neighbouring seat from the Tories in 2017 and is a local GP which can hardly be to his detriment. Obviously his views on Brexit will be an albatross but I can't imagine it'll be the defining issue of the campaign. |
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Hartlepool
Mar 19, 2021 15:46:25 GMT
via mobile
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Post by rivers10 on Mar 19, 2021 15:46:25 GMT
This point has been raised many times and the answer is very simple Blair was an extreme solution to Labour's woes in the 90's. Appeal to middle class voters by putting up an ultra moderate, an antithesis to the looney left. Many in the party didn't like it but it at least got results Problem today is its the exact same solution to a totally different set of issues. Labour doesn't need to win Wirral Woman its all about the Red Wall while keeping their metropolitan urban base on side. As a result the left can clearly see that the moderates sole offer of kneejerk left bashing isn't going to work and will actually probably make things worse and why stay in a doomed party that is totally convinced your very existence is the reason they lost? But it is far from clear - though this by election may provide good evidence - how far the conditions of late 2019 still prevail. Polling has Labour 4% or 5% higher now even in the context of a Tory vaccination boost. Were a GE being held now , quite a few of the 2019 losses would likely be reversed. What Labour have done (and in depth analysis backs this up) is hoover up the never Corbyn progressive liberal vote by sheer virtue of getting rid of Corbyn We've made little to no inroads into the Tory vote amd every day that passes the public think less of Starmer Come the next election Labour will probably offer pallid nonsense which won't win over many Tory voters while equally losing us support on the left to apathy and smaller parties on the left, the Tory vote will be shored up by the usual media drivel and the rest is history Net result is no real change may gain a few seats may lose a few, the idea is meant to be that you betray your principles for power not betray them to stand still!!! The current direction is a road to nowhere and even a lot of more moderate members can see it now, if soft left twitter is indicative of anything then Starmer has lost the backbone of his support base in the past month or so. If you can't even win over your own side you have no hope with the public at large |
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