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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 15, 2021 22:05:22 GMT
Let's see how this flies. If nothing else, at least I'll learn how to say 'pitchfork' in Welsh. Seems to be a Saxon loanword. Bicfforch. You'll run into them with *all* of your alterations to the Meirionydd & Powys Wenwynwyn design (along with the inevitable ones for either doing that at all or crossing the Berwyns instead). Though I shall assume the intentions in making the seat slightly Plaidier were entirely honorary. ;D Powys Wenwynwyn would be one to listen out for on the election coverage!  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 15, 2021 22:08:14 GMT
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YL
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Post by YL on Feb 15, 2021 22:17:24 GMT
Prioritising no split of Denbighshire as islington has done leaves you with 4 really tidy seats in North East Wales, but it comes at the expense of creating a 'Costa Geriatrica' constituency and a seat that stretches all the way from Bardsey Island to Coedway. The Commission wanted to avoid the latter when mainland Wales was only entitled to 28 and a bit seats, so I doubt they'll go for it now it's going to get 31. What's wrong with a 'Costa Geriatrica' constituency? |
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Feb 15, 2021 22:24:07 GMT
Seems to be a Saxon loanword. Bicfforch. You'll run into them with *all* of your alterations to the Meirionydd & Powys Wenwynwyn design (along with the inevitable ones for either doing that at all or crossing the Berwyns instead). Though I shall assume the intentions in making the seat slightly Plaidier were entirely honorary. ;D Powys Wenwynwyn would be one to listen out for on the election coverage! In the days of Opik, you could (and probably would) have claimed to be winning in Wenwynwyn. Gwenwynwyn is a strange name too... Poison Gwyn?! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 15, 2021 22:25:39 GMT
Powys Wenwynwyn would be one to listen out for on the election coverage! In the days of Opik, you could (and probably would) have claimed to be winning in Wenwynwyn. Gwenwynwyn is a strange name too... Poison Gwyn?! That's no way to refer to me! |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 15, 2021 22:26:24 GMT
Prioritising no split of Denbighshire as islington has done leaves you with 4 really tidy seats in North East Wales, but it comes at the expense of creating a 'Costa Geriatrica' constituency and a seat that stretches all the way from Bardsey Island to Coedway. The Commission wanted to avoid the latter when mainland Wales was only entitled to 28 and a bit seats, so I doubt they'll go for it now it's going to get 31. What's wrong with a 'Costa Geriatrica' constituency? Whilst it's not as objectionable as a coast-to-border seat, I think there are more competitive solutions from a partisan standpoint (or to put it another way, obvious Torymander is obvious). It does have strong transport links across the A5 and A55 roads and the North Wales railway line though, so the Commission will probably have no reason to try to avoid such an arrangement. |
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Post by Penddu on Feb 16, 2021 2:28:30 GMT
If it were named after the town, it would presumably be "Aberteifi". Two questions -
- If the town is called 'Aberteifi' in Welsh and 'Cardigan' in English, what's the point of this strange word 'Ceredigion' to which we've had to accustom ourselves in the last few years?
- And what's the Welsh for 'Did anyone have an opinion about merits, or lack thereof, of the actual scheme?'?
1. Ceredigion is the name of the original Welsh kingdom that has been around for the last 1500 years or so. Hardly 'the last few years'. Similar to Powys, Gwynedd, Dyfed, Gwent, Morgannwg etc. (But not Clwyd). 2. The name Ceredigion is in regular use by majority of population - in both languages. So no issue with artificial made up names. 3. What is Welsh for 'Why is this person from Islington so concerned with what the local population want to call their area?' |
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Post by Penddu on Feb 16, 2021 2:54:50 GMT
Let's see how this flies. If nothing else, at least I'll learn how to say 'pitchfork' in Welsh. Flintshire / Wrexham - 215481 = 2.94 = 3 seats
North Flintshire - 71993. South Flintshire - 72569. Wrexham - 70919. Denbighshire - 74078 = 1.01 = 1 seat
Denbighshire - 74078. Conwy / Gwynedd / Powys = 281723 = 3.84 = 4 seats
Conwy - 70229. Caernarvon - 70196.
Meirionnydd and Montgomery - 70384. Although the mixture of languages feels a little odd.
Brecon and Radnor - 70914. Ceredigion / Pembrokeshire = 150883 = 2.06 = 2 seats
Ceredigion - 74412. I think of this as named after the town rather than the LA, so should it be 'Cardigan'? Pembroke - 76471. Carmarthenshire = 142578 = 1.94 = 2 seats
Carmarthen - 70211. Llanelli - 72367. Swansea / NPT / Bridgend / VoG / Cardiff / RCT / MT = 966317 = 13.17 = 13 seats
Gower - 73725. Or 'West Glamorgan'?
Swansea - 76488. Swansea Valley - 76892. Really my names here are complete stabs in the dark so I'm bracing myself to be told how utterly wrong they are. Neath - 75185.
Bridgend - 75533. Barry - 74938. Or 'South Glamorgan'? Or 'Vale of Glamorgan'? Edited to add: Since posting I've spotted that this seat has room for Peterston ward, which would mean the two RCT wards are out on less of a limb. With this addition - 76793.
Cardiff West and Penarth - 72302. Edited to add: Losing Peterston would take this down to 70447.
Cardiff Central - 72414. Cardiff East - 70333.
Cardiff North - 70627.
Pontypridd - 76271. Rhondda and Ogmore Vale - 76804.
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - 74805. BG / Caerphilly / Newport = 295930 = 4.03 = 4 seats
Ebbw Vale - 73114. If it was good enough for Michael Foot ... Caerphilly - 74972. Newport West - 71685.
Newport East - 76159. Torfaen = 70591 = 0.96 = 1 seat
Pontypool and Cwmbran - 70591. I know this isn't what it would actually be called, but is 'Torfaen' even a place? Monmouthshire = 72681 = 0.99 = 1 seat
Monmouth - 72681.
Caernarvon => Caernarfon Carmarthen => Caerfyrddin or Sir GΓ’r or Ystrad Tywi Gower = Gower Swansea => Swansea South Swansea Valley => Swansea North & Neath Valley ? Barry => Vale of Glamorgan Rhondda and Ogmore Vale => Rhondda & Ogwr or The Bwlch (This seat doesnt really work) Ebbw Vale => Blaenau Gwent (Ebbw Vale is only a small part of this area) Monmouth => Monmouthshire Pontypool & Cwmbran => Torfaen ( I dont know where name comes from - Afon Lwyd or Central Gwent maybe...) |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 16, 2021 6:15:44 GMT
Pontypool & Cwmbran => TorfaenΒ ( I dont know where name comes from - Afon Lwyd or Central Gwent maybe...) Torfaen is apparently an old name for the Afon Lwyd. Though that doesn't explain why the name was picked in 74, evidently it was popular enough to be retained for the unitary in the 90s. Meh. In England they use "Easington" as shorthand for Peterlee & Seaham. I don't see how using "Torfaen" as shorthand for Cwmbran & Pontypool wd be worse even without the local authority. |
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Post by islington on Feb 16, 2021 10:43:53 GMT
Well, if you can abide a seat that stretches from Pontardawe to the Montgomeryshire border (and don't mind taking a nibble out of Bridgend town), then a lot of the problems posters have identified can be resolved if you do this:
  Conwy - 75590. Now with added inland element. Caernarfon - 74218. Meirionnydd and Montgomery - 77061. Within the upper limit by 1. Ceredigion - 76269. Thanks for advice on the border with Pembroke. Pembroke - 74614. Carmarthen - 70889. The boundary with Llanelli adjusted to keep Ammanford in this seat. Again, thanks for advice. Llanelli - 71689. Brecon and Radnor - 72113. Now extends a long way south down the Swansea Valley. Gower - 76801.
Swansea - 73412. Neath - 76841. I'm guessing this version also won't be greeted with raptures of joy, but options are limited. Aberavon - 74734. Bridgend - 73199. Unfortunately I had to take a nibble out of the town because I couldn't find a way to squeeze five seats into Cardiff / VoG. Any offers? South Glamorgan - 70758.
Cardiff West and Penarth - 70447. The revised version from the previous plan. Rhondda - 71684. One big advantage of this approach is that it allows three whole seats for RCT/MT, to the great benefit of this seat in particular. Pontypridd - 73003.
Everything else as I had it before. I've left Cardiff as I had it after trying to find an arrangement that was more respectful of the current map - suggestions welcome.
Edited: To add the S Glam seat (which I accidentally missed out) and to simplify names in the Swansea area.
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Post by islington on Feb 16, 2021 12:22:34 GMT
Pontypool & Cwmbran => Torfaen ( I dont know where name comes from - Afon Lwyd or Central Gwent maybe...) Torfaen is apparently an old name for the Afon Lwyd. Though that doesn't explain why the name was picked in 74, evidently it was popular enough to be retained for the unitary in the 90s. Meh. In England they use "Easington" as shorthand for Peterlee & Seaham. I don't see how using "Torfaen" as shorthand for Cwmbran & Pontypool wd be worse even without the local authority. Well, it's a moot point because if the seat is created it will certainly be called 'Torfaen' but I'll stick to 'Pontypool and Cwmbran' because this plan is what I would do, not an attempt to second-guess what the BCW will do. And I don't like using even the current names of rivers and other bodies of water, much less obsolete names.
And 'Easington' is not a fair comparison because, unlike Torfaen, it is at least a proper place. It's one of a number of relatively small places that have come, over time, to be accepted as constituency names even though there may be larger settlements in the same seat. Aberavon is another example; likewise Wentworth, St Ives, Bosworth and probably one or two others I can't call to mind at the moment. And I see that a number of plans here (including mine) propose to revive Eye, which if it happens will be another example.
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 16, 2021 12:52:43 GMT
Torfaen is apparently an old name for the Afon Lwyd. Though that doesn't explain why the name was picked in 74, evidently it was popular enough to be retained for the unitary in the 90s. Meh. In England they use "Easington" as shorthand for Peterlee & Seaham. I don't see how using "Torfaen" as shorthand for Cwmbran & Pontypool wd be worse even without the local authority. Well, it's a moot point because if the seat is created it will certainly be called 'Torfaen' but I'll stick to 'Pontypool and Cwmbran' because this plan is what I would do, not an attempt to second-guess what the BCW will do. And I don't like using even the current names of rivers and other bodies of water, much less obsolete names.
And 'Easington' is not a fair comparison because, unlike Torfaen, it is at least a proper place. It's one of a number of relatively small places that have come, over time, to be accepted as constituency names even though there may be larger settlements in the same seat. Aberavon is another example; likewise Wentworth, St Ives, Bosworth and probably one or two others I can't call to mind at the moment. And I see that a number of plans here (including mine) propose to revive Eye, which if it happens will be another example.
Torfaen UA is a real place; it at least still exists unlike Easington District! Which (and the constituency) took its name from the RD I believe, which (and the constituence name, again) of course predates Peterlee's existence. Sedgefield of course is another (and more clearcut) very nearby example. I think it's perfectly appropriate to retain these names if the constituency is fundamentally retained. And - unlike Denbighshire or indeed Monmouthshire (for the current authorities or constituencies based on them) - it's unambiguous as a name. It's perfectly clear what it covers. If the constituency was renamed I would assume outlying areas (Blaenavon?) must have been excised. |
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Post by islington on Feb 16, 2021 13:14:56 GMT
Two questions -
- If the town is called 'Aberteifi' in Welsh and 'Cardigan' in English, what's the point of this strange word 'Ceredigion' to which we've had to accustom ourselves in the last few years?
A lot of names for areas of Wales are in the form personal name + ending (cf Morgannwg, Brycheiniog, etc). So in this instance, the question is "Who was Ceredig?" Of course with that sort of legendary history, legends get retold. The regular name of the county also exists in Welsh β Sir Aberteifi β it's a bit like the East Lothian and Haddingtonshire being two names for the same place issue. Okay, I'll bite: 1) bisecting LlΕ·n so that Nefyn and Pwllheli are in different constituencies would be very, very pitchforky 2) bisecting Montgomeryshire... you're brave! 3) I know it looks sensible on a map to put Maenclochog in with North Pembrokeshire, but it really, really isn't β much better to stay north of the mountains and keep going all the way to St David's 4) splitting Ammanford from the Amman Valley is another "looks neat on the map", but is very much sub-optimal 5) I'm glad you got Mayals into Gower where it belongs 6) splitting off Mawr from Clydach isn't good 7) oh my goodness, drawing a boundary along the River Neath through Neath... (And the Swansea Valley name would be *very* pitchforky) 8) do the numbers not work for swapping Llanharan and Tonyrefail? (Broadly speaking, I like the backwards-L-shaped Pontypridd β it's a neat idea) 9) Pontyclun in the Vale would go down very well in Pontyclun (you'd get the sort of irrelevant objections about moving the local authority boundary), but it's a bit messy excluding Peterston like that β the ward contains a chunk of the A4222 between Cowbridge and Pontyclun (ah, I see you spotted this with your edit!) 10) Ely and Penarth β not a combination I'd have thought of β doesn't mean it's necessarily bad β it's just a bit odd 11) Cardiff North looks like a Torymander of old (shame you couldn't get Old St Mellon's in) β it probably wouldn't work these days 12) Caerphilly looks messy on a map, but makes sense 13) splitting Bettws from Malpas in Newport isn't good 14) I very much like that you've given the three in-range local authorities their own constituencies. Thanks for detailed comments, much appreciated.
My revised plan addresses a lot of your points, although I still couldn't unite Mawr and Clydach. I suppose on the whole the revised plan is an improvement, although I'm still uncomfortable about putting the upper Swansea Valley into the Brecon & Radnor seat.
Incidentally I always had Bettws and Malpas both in Newport E, although I am toying with adding Stow Hill to Newport W so as to bring the latter right down to the Usk and make it more definitely a Newport seat. Numbers in this case: Newport E 72775; Newport W & Risca 75069. (I've added 'Risca' to acknowledge the non-Newport elements in preference to using 'Islwyn', which is another place that doesn't exist.)
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 16, 2021 13:25:36 GMT
You can avoid having to take a bite out of Bridgend by putting Taff Wells in with Cardiff.
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Post by YL on Feb 16, 2021 13:46:20 GMT
TBH I'm not convinced that putting Pontardawe in a seat with Radnorshire is preferable to splitting Montgomeryshire. And it's perfectly possible to give West Glamorgan (i.e. NPT and Swansea) four seats together; it's even possible to do so without that boundary along the river by Neath town.
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Feb 16, 2021 14:18:45 GMT
Neath - 76841. I'm guessing this version also won't be greeted with raptures of joy, but options are limited. I think that sort of pattern is pretty much the best that can be hoped for. It's a shame that to include Briton Ferry, then Swansea would be utterly broken (or the Dulais Valley would have to go into Brecknockshire). I'd rather leave the Bridgend constituency intact (and certainly not split Pencoed!) and add Maesteg to Aberavon. As for South Glamorgan being too small, Wentloog in a Cardiff seat might fix it. This one is discontiguous by road β Llanharan and Llanharry are a very poor fit here. Your previous version not splitting Gilfach Goch along the local authority boundary was better. |
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Post by islington on Feb 16, 2021 14:25:09 GMT
You can avoid having to take a bite out of Bridgend by putting Taff Wells in with Cardiff. Then rejigging Cardiff to free up Wenvoe to go into S Glam. Yes, I can see that, although it's a shame to cross the RCT boundary. Still, if you're going to do that, another option would be to leave Cardiff as is, put Cwmbach into Pontypridd and Pont-y-Clun into S Glam. In this arrangement numbers would be: Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare 71054; Pontypridd 70693; S Glamorgan 73572; Bridgend 76446. That actually doesn't look bad. Regarding YL 's post: I entirely share his unease about putting Pontardawe in the Brecon & Radnor seat. There's a strategic choice to be made about whether this is a price worth paying for the advantages it brings in Glamorgan and (to a lesser extent) in N Wales.
I'm sure he's also right about fitting 4 seats into NPT/Swansea; but then you have Bridgend district with an entitlement of 1.48 and nowhere obvious to go (Bridgend/VoG/Cardiff = 6.26, surely not practical for 6 seats).
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Post by islington on Feb 16, 2021 14:51:07 GMT
Neath - 76841. I'm guessing this version also won't be greeted with raptures of joy, but options are limited. I think that sort of pattern is pretty much the best that can be hoped for. It's a shame that to include Briton Ferry, then Swansea would be utterly broken (or the Dulais Valley would have to go into Brecknockshire). I'd rather leave the Bridgend constituency intact (and certainly not split Pencoed!) and add Maesteg to Aberavon. As for South Glamorgan being too small, Wentloog in a Cardiff seat might fix it. This one is discontiguous by road β Llanharan and Llanharry are a very poor fit here. Your previous version not splitting Gilfach Goch along the local authority boundary was better. I see your point about Rhondda. But the version in my previous plan drew fire too.
What are the options? Is a seat of Rhondda & Mountain Ash out of the question?
(Incidentally, I agree the LA boundary in Gilfach Goch is a complete nonsense but LA boundaries are what they are and I think for the purposes of the present exercise terrible LA boundaries are entitled to as much respect as good ones.) |
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Post by YL on Feb 16, 2021 14:55:43 GMT
I'm sure he's also right about fitting 4 seats into NPT/Swansea; but then you have Bridgend district with an entitlement of 1.48 and nowhere obvious to go (Bridgend/VoG/Cardiff = 6.26, surely not practical for 6 seats). Combine with RCT and Merthyr for 9 seats, maintaining the current pairing of the "preserved counties" of Mid and South Glamorgan. The Bridgend/RCT boundary is already crossed by the current Ogmore seat. For example, see my plan posted a couple of pages back, and IIRC emidsanorak had another. I've reconsidered West Glamorgan a bit since posting, though, and I realise Rhondda & Mountain Ash might be seen as problematic. |
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Feb 16, 2021 17:25:45 GMT
Here's a take on the South Glamorgan and Gwent idea:  1 Vale of Glamorgan 70426 Yes 2 Cardiff South West and Penarth 71147 Yes 3 Cardiff North West 73190 Yes 4 Cardiff North East 70966 Yes 5 Cardiff South East 70500 Yes 6 Newport East 72775 Yes 7 Newport West and Caerphilly 76120 Yes 8 Islwyn and Gelligaer 71059 Yes 9 Blaenau Gwent 71079 Yes Clearer successors to Cardiff West and Cardiff North are possible if you also take Tredegar Park ward from Newport. |
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