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Post by mattb on Oct 23, 2022 15:07:00 GMT
This is not bad if you think there's still time for large-scale change. I'm doubtful whether there is, but I'll go for anything that distracts me from the Tories so I thought I'd see what happens if I put the Dulais Valley in with B&R as well (and yes, there are roads - an A road, even). Would that allow me to keep the Cardiff I suggested the other day, the version without any RCT wards at all? I ended up with this.  Brecon & Radnor - 76110. Swansea - 73412. Neath - 72644. Aberavon - 74677. Briton Ferry is currently in Aberavon so I've kept it there, but there is (just) room for it in Neath if this would make 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ happy (in which case the numbers are Neath 77025, Aberavon 70496). Bridgend - 74630. Rhondda & Ogmore - 73557 Pontypridd - 73003. That leaves Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare as the BCW now has it and Cardiff and VoG as I suggested the other day. Edited to add: Actually, on closer scrutiny Bettws ward fits better in Aberavon so if you make that switch it's Aberavon 76272, Rhondda & Ogmore 71962.
You don't need to make the B&R change in order to do all the rest of this. (See my similar attempt on p31 which is more respectful of LA boundaries but makes other compromises). I agree the BCW are not going to make big changes at this stage in any case, so all just a bit of fun. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Oct 24, 2022 13:44:39 GMT
Thought of one way you could perhaps marginally improve the ugly borders around Newport. Compared to the revised proposals: Monmouthshire gains Llanwern and Langstone wards from Newport East while losing Llanelly Hill ward to Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney; "Newport West and Islwyn" loses Allt-yr-yn and Gaer ward to Newport East while gaining Bettws ward from it, and also loses Argoed ward to Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney while gaining Pontllanfraith ward from Caerphilly; finally Caerphilly gains Bargoed and Gilfach wards from Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney. Newport West and Islwyn constituency is renamed to Ebbw; Newport East constituency is renamed to Newport. This is still far from ideal, but the idea is that if Newport is only able to have one and a half constituencies, it makes more sense to have one constituency covering all of the centre of Newport with none of the rural areas, and that it's less bad to have a constituency just covering Islwyn and the towns on the outskirts of Newport than one going all the way from Islwyn into the middle of Newport.  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 24, 2022 13:54:32 GMT
The logic makes sense, but you've re-split Bargoed when the BCW mentioned uniting is as a specific benefit of their plan, and I think Bettws need to go with Malpas and Shaftesbury rather than with Rogerstone.
You're probably better off accepting that Newport is going to get split and just trying to get them to go back to the initial proposals, but with Llanbradach with Caerphilly and Nelson and Aber Valley with Islwyn.
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Nov 15, 2022 23:28:34 GMT
I've made my feelings known at comment #10833.
If you haven't already sent something in at this stage, then you've got about half an hour left if you want to make any further remarks.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 28, 2023 10:59:42 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 28, 2023 11:11:45 GMT
I think there had been submissions suggesting it, it just hadn't made it into any of the proposals until now. It's clearly an improvement, though. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jun 28, 2023 11:26:42 GMT
They actually adopted my proposal re Corwen, it seems.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 28, 2023 11:27:45 GMT
Map of the major changes  Only other changes are one ward moved from Newport West and Islwyn to Caerphilly, and two wards moved from Montgomeryshire to Dwyfor Meirionydd. So I quite like what they've done with the Swansea area- Gower is more of a least-change district now taking in some of outer Swansea, and Swansea West is divided from Swansea East and Neath along the Tawe river the whole way. As someone not especially familiar with the area I think that's a good map. |
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Post by Penddu on Jun 28, 2023 13:39:04 GMT
The Swansea & Neath area is much improved, and the Aberafan and Bridgend seats are ok.
The Rhondda & Ogmore seat is an improvement on the Pencoed exclave - unless you live in Garw valley, which is almost as isolated as Pencoed was before.
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Post by Penddu on Jun 28, 2023 14:01:30 GMT
The Swansea & Neath area is much improved, and the Aberafan and Bridgend seats are ok. The Rhondda & Ogmore seat is an improvement on the Pencoed exclave - unless you live in Garw valley, which is almost as isolated as Pencoed was before. Something I never knew before, despite living in the area for years and regularly travelling to Llangeinor for swimming - the narrow twisty hairpin road between Garw and Ogmore valleys crosses 'Bryn-y-wrach' (Witches Hill). I would love to know the history behind that.... |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 2, 2023 9:32:18 GMT
A Wikipedia editor (not me!) has created a redirect page for "Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr" using the Welsh "ŵ". I wonder if this will be the only body/publication to do so.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 2, 2023 10:05:56 GMT
Here is my assessment of Wales in the current electoral climate:
Labour 19 seats: All safe
Conservatives 11 seats: All likely to go down bar Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, unless there is a co-operation pact between Labour and the Liberal Democrats
Plaid Cymru: 2 seats: All safe
Conservative seats ranked by marginality:
Bangor Aberconwy: Lab GAIN
Ynys Môn: Labour GAIN
Wrexham: Labour GAIN
Clwyd East: Labour GAIN
Clwyd North: Labour GAIN
Vale of Glamorgan: Labour GAIN
Caerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru GAIN
Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Labour GAIN
Monmouthshire: Labour GAIN
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Lib Dem GAIN by less than 1%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: Conservative HOLD
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Post by Penddu on Jul 3, 2023 0:24:19 GMT
I agree that Conservatives are heading towards a wipe-out in Wales, but there are 3 seats which are difficult to call....
Ynys Môn - despite no change in borders this is a 3-way marginal. Conservatives will lose but not clear whether Labour or Plaid will beat them.
B,R & CT - many Labour voters here voted tactically for LDs to keep Tories out. But the Cwm Tawe area will deliver a strong Labour vote and I think the LD vote will unwind and Labour will win this.
Monty & Owain - this seat is the hardest to predict - the Glyndwr area will provide a block of Labour votes - enough to make this seat a 3-way marginal... could be only Con hold in Wales.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 3, 2023 3:19:24 GMT
"Monty and Owain" 😂
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 3, 2023 6:33:25 GMT
A Wikipedia editor (not me!) has created a redirect page for "Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr" using the Welsh "ŵ". I wonder if this will be the only body/publication to do so. Checking the report, the official spelling does use ŵ. But does anybody in the Ruabon area refer to it as "Glyndŵr", circumflex or not? Ruabon wasn't even in the 1974-96 district of Glyndŵr. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 3, 2023 11:38:21 GMT
I am reminded that my own idiolect name for Montgomery comstituency is “Montygoompoop”, so perhaps the new version could be called “Montygŵmpŵp & Glyndŵr”. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 3, 2023 11:49:54 GMT
I agree that Conservatives are heading towards a wipe-out in Wales, but there are 3 seats which are difficult to call.... B,R & CT - many Labour voters here voted tactically for LDs to keep Tories out. But the Cwm Tawe area will deliver a strong Labour vote and I think the LD vote will unwind and Labour will win this. It is worth remembering that B & R was a Lab/Con marginal from 1945 to 1979. It was only because of, and subsequent to, the 1985 by-election that the Liberal Party / Lib Dems became competitive, and 38 years of tactical voting since then has gradually squeezed Labour out. The new boundaries might give an impetus to unsqueezing Labour and unwinding tactical voting. It would be useful if someone could do a study of how, historically, major boundary changes have had an effect on changing voting behaviour in three-way tactical-voting / marginal areas. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 3, 2023 12:09:33 GMT
Well in that case the big issue was also related to boundary changes: Brynmawr (the largest town in the constituency), Llanelly Hill/Gilwern, and the populated parts of the former Vaynor & Penderyn RD (quite a few people there, especially in Vaynor) were all removed in 1983 because they were not included in the new Powys, and all were Labour-voting areas. It was presumed at the time that this would knock Labour out of contention in the constituency, especially as demographic trends elsewhere in it were not favourable. And this did happen, but not in quite the way assumed.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 3, 2023 12:15:01 GMT
A Wikipedia editor (not me!) has created a redirect page for "Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr" using the Welsh "ŵ". I wonder if this will be the only body/publication to do so. Checking the report, the official spelling does use ŵ. But does anybody in the Ruabon area refer to it as "Glyndŵr", circumflex or not? Ruabon wasn't even in the 1974-96 district of Glyndŵr. No. Glyndwr is mostly associated with the area around Corwen. |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 4, 2023 2:13:47 GMT
A more accurate historical name for the area would have been Powys Madoc - with Montgomeryshire being Powys Wenwynwyn - which means the new seat could have been named simply Powys. But I can see that would cause some confusion so I will shut up.
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