|
|
Post by islington on Oct 21, 2022 9:48:11 GMT
I'm no particular fan of the BCW's Cardiff (although it's better than in the initial proposals); but I don't see what's so terrible about Cardiff E, surely we've all seen a lot worse.
What puzzles me, though, is why they haven't gone for something more closely based on the existing arrangement, which you can do by shifting only three Cardiff wards, and importing only one extra ward from outside the city (rather than three as in the BCW scheme).
Cardiff S & Penarth: Current seat minus Llanrumney = 70394. Cardiff C: Current seat plus Riverside = 69813. Cardiff N: Current seat minus Llandaff N and plus Llanrumney = 70054. Cardiff W: Current seat minus Riverside and plus Llandaff N and (from VoG) Dinas Powys = 70645.
Why complicate life?
Because putting Llanrumney into North is terrible. I know it was in the Conservative counterproposal, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Being the Conservative counterproposal doesn't make it a good idea, but being integral to a scheme that substantially preserves the existing seat pattern in Cardiff and gets everything in range with the shifting of only a handful of wards ... well, that makes it a very good idea. |
|
|
|
Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 21, 2022 9:58:54 GMT
but Merionethshire/Meirionydd has the largest Welsh-speaking population in Wales This is demonstrably untrue. The 2011 Census recorded 78,412 people who said they could speak Welsh in Gwynedd (of which Meirionnydd will be about a third; I can't be bothered work out how to split Arfon and Dwyfor off), but 78,914 in Carmarthenshire. The Isle of Anglesey and the city and county of Cardiff both also recorded more Welsh speakers than the entire population of Meirionnydd. |
|
|
|
Post by Penddu on Oct 21, 2022 10:41:04 GMT
Firstly, Meirionnydd is a tiny county in terms of population I don't think this point can be reiterated enough. It's slightly smaller than Rutland in population terms. It is also a county that has not existed since 1974. Why are we evrn talking about it? |
|
|
|
Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 21, 2022 10:43:52 GMT
I don't think this point can be reiterated enough. It's slightly smaller than Rutland in population terms. It is also a county that has not existed since 1974. Why are we evrn talking about it? It continued as a local government district (on slightly reduced boundaries) until 1996 and is still an area committee of Gwynedd council. And read up-thread. |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,781 
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 21, 2022 10:48:52 GMT
I don't think this point can be reiterated enough. It's slightly smaller than Rutland in population terms. It is also a county that has not existed since 1974. Why are we evrn talking about it? BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2022 11:26:33 GMT
I don't think this point can be reiterated enough. It's slightly smaller than Rutland in population terms. It is also a county that has not existed since 1974. Why are we evrn talking about it? Rutland isn't part of Leicestershire any longer so we are able to talk about it on its own terms! |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 21, 2022 12:10:04 GMT
It is also a county that has not existed since 1974. Why are we evrn talking about it? BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Said in Waldorf voice hopefully!  |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,455
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 21, 2022 12:49:12 GMT
BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Said in Waldorf voice hopefully! Apples,celery,walnuts, grapes in a mayonnaise sauce |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 21, 2022 12:51:11 GMT
Said in Waldorf voice hopefully! Apples,celery,walnuts, grapes in a mayonnaise sauce Sorry, we're fresh out of waldorfs. |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,455
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 21, 2022 13:02:51 GMT
Apples,celery,walnuts, grapes in a mayonnaise sauce Sorry, we're fresh out of waldorfs. What exactly is a waldorf? A walnut that's gone off? Are you out of screwdrivers too? |
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
|
Post by andrea on Oct 21, 2022 20:56:04 GMT
Using the 40% (of your current constituency going into the revised one) territorial claim Labour uses in case of boundary changes the Labour head to heads should be
Tonia Antoniazzi vs Geraint Davies for Gower & Swansea West
Carolyn Harris and Geraint Davies for Swansea Central and North
Christina Rees and Carolyn Harris for Swansea East and Neath
If Rees is not reinstated, they would all fit without any selection vote.
Gerald Jones and Beth Winter for Merthyr and Upper Cynon
Beth Winter and Alex Davies-Jones for Pontypridd
Jessica Morden and Ruth Jones for Newport East
Ruth Jones and Chris Evans for Newport West and Islwyn
|
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 21, 2022 23:07:12 GMT
I would have said there’s a storing chance Christina Rees would stand down anyway, she’s 69 in February and has no chance of the high office she once imagined. If the current Parliament makes it to 2024 she’ll have managed nine years after entering Parliament at the age of 61.
|
|
|
|
Post by Penddu on Oct 22, 2022 11:59:31 GMT
If Christina Rees stands down (likely) I can not see Carolyn Harris going down very well in Neath...
|
|
|
|
Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 22, 2022 16:32:26 GMT
Christina Rees and Carolyn Harris for Swansea East and Neath Neath and Swansea East, please. Getting the order right was one of the idiot corrupt commission's few sensible changes. |
|
|
|
Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 22, 2022 16:36:17 GMT
If Christina Rees stands down (likely) I can not see Carolyn Harris going down very well in Neath... Sadly independents and residents' associations have never been a goer for parliament. The added lead weight of St Thomas would ensure that the Labour candidate won, regardless of their merits, much like their 20th century rogues' gallery. |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,040
|
Post by nyx on Oct 22, 2022 23:11:16 GMT
Even more unlikely scenario: if Rees does get reinstated to the party and wants to avoid a selection battle, Brecon and Radnorshire would be an option given how much of her seat it's taking on... given that the existing LD voters in Brecon and Radnorshire would presumably switch their votes to supporting a Labour incumbent being reelected.
I don't think that would happen, but that's the way to avoid all four Labour MPs having to face off against any of each other.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
|
Post by YL on Oct 23, 2022 9:39:13 GMT
One partial fix to the Corwen/Llangollen mess would just be to move Corwen, Llandrillo and Llanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern into Bangor Aberconwy. They don't really have anything to do with Bangor or Aberconwy but there are at least reasonable connections by the standards of inland Wales to the inland parts of the proposed constituency, some of which are also a fair way from Bangor and Conwy/Llandudno. (The A5 would pass briefly out of it between Corwen and Cerrigydrudion, but I don't think that's very important.) Llangollen itself would still be a bit isolated in Clwyd East.
Or, and perhaps this is better, Corwen and Llandrillo could be reunited with Meirionnydd.
|
|
|
|
Post by islington on Oct 23, 2022 11:34:09 GMT
One partial fix to the Corwen/Llangollen mess would just be to move Corwen, Llandrillo and Llanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern into Bangor Aberconwy. They don't really have anything to do with Bangor or Aberconwy but there are at least reasonable connections by the standards of inland Wales to the inland parts of the proposed constituency, some of which are also a fair way from Bangor and Conwy/Llandudno. (The A5 would pass briefly out of it between Corwen and Cerrigydrudion, but I don't think that's very important.) Llangollen itself would still be a bit isolated in Clwyd East. Or, and perhaps this is better, Corwen and Llandrillo could be reunited with Meirionnydd.That is inspired.
There's a road link, it keeps the 'traditional county' brigade happy, the BCW's Dwyfor Meirionnydd is near the minimum so it can easily absorb these two small wards without any other changes (it comes in at 72533). What's not to like? It then allows you to put Llangollen Rural into Monts & Glyndwr, thus eliminating a LA boundary-crossing and an orphan ward. (75854) E Clwyd (can't we think of a better name for the Holywell/Mold/Rhyl/Ruthin mash-up?) can then take the southern of the two Denbighshire wards the BCW has put in the Bangor seat. Admittedly (as YL points out) Llangollen is now out on a bit of a limb on the wrong side of the Horseshoe Pass but the A542 provides a direct link. (76085) The other ward (the one with the ultra-Welsh name) then goes into N Clwyd (prefer 'Denbigh') in exchange for Rhos. (71536) Bangor & Aberconwy then 73761. This arrangement shifts only six wards and means that no seat extends into three authorities (although to be fair I seem to be the only one bothered about this last point).
Another point in favour of this plan is that it took my mind off the Tory psychodrama for a good twenty minutes.
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 23, 2022 12:22:07 GMT
Thinking about how to clean things up, I think the Commission have done a reasonably good job in Dyfed and I'm persuaded that combining Brecon & Radnor with the Tawe valley and Montgomeryshire with points north is probably the best solution available, even if Montgomery & Glyndwr is still to my eyes the worst way to do it. In Gwent I think that Newport West and Islwyn is a pretty bad seat, but Newport West and Caerphilly was also pretty bad and I don't think there's a silver bullet given that Torfaen and Monmouth are going to be treated separately and Merthyr has to go with RCT. However, there's definitely room for improvement in Glamorgan. Here's one attempt:  Gower & Swansea West (76801) - matches the Labour counter-proposal, except it gives up on Mayals. Cockett is the only ward which is meaningfully part of Swansea proper, and that only applies to about half the ward Swansea Central (74612) - drops the northern rural bits in return for Sketty. The Commission seems to have got very het up about it being "inappropriate to create constituencies along faith, racial demarcation or educational status lines", but I can't see how Mawr has more to do with the centre of Swansea than Sketty is. Neath & Swansea East (74705) - adds Coedffranc back in, drops Landore and Pelenna. The latter isn't ideal, but given that the revised proposals are blisteringly insane, it's still an improvement. Aberavon & Maesteg (69817) - I couldn't make a Port Talbot/Porthcawl seat work on the numbers, so this is the alternative. There's also a variant arrangement swapping Cornelly for Cefn Cribwr, Aberkenfig and Ynysawdre, creating a boundary along the M4 and the Ogmore Rhondda and Ogmore (73557) - internal links aren't great, but they're there, and this puts Gilfach Goch in one seat Bridgend (70770) - more like the present seat Vale of Glamorgan (70426) - Revised proposals seem fine here. Picture includes Sully but these numbers don't Cardiff West & Penarth (74789) - not convinced the internal connectivity works here, but it allows the following seat to look less silly than the Commission's Cardiff S & Penarth Cardiff Central (71427) - only shares one ward with the current seat of that name, but still seems like an accurate designation Cardiff East (72463) - as in the revised proposals Cardiff North (71143) - as in the revised proposals Pontypridd (73743) - as in the revised proposals Merthyr Tydfil & Upper Cynon (74805) - as in the revised proposals |
|
|
|
Post by islington on Oct 23, 2022 14:30:06 GMT
Thinking about how to clean things up, I think the Commission have done a reasonably good job in Dyfed and I'm persuaded that combining Brecon & Radnor with the Tawe valley and Montgomeryshire with points north is probably the best solution available, even if Montgomery & Glyndwr is still to my eyes the worst way to do it. In Gwent I think that Newport West and Islwyn is a pretty bad seat, but Newport West and Caerphilly was also pretty bad and I don't think there's a silver bullet given that Torfaen and Monmouth are going to be treated separately and Merthyr has to go with RCT. However, there's definitely room for improvement in Glamorgan. Here's one attempt: Gower & Swansea West (76801) - matches the Labour counter-proposal, except it gives up on Mayals. Cockett is the only ward which is meaningfully part of Swansea proper, and that only applies to about half the ward Swansea Central (74612) - drops the northern rural bits in return for Sketty. The Commission seems to have got very het up about it being "inappropriate to create constituencies along faith, racial demarcation or educational status lines", but I can't see how Mawr has more to do with the centre of Swansea than Sketty is. Neath & Swansea East (74705) - adds Coedffranc back in, drops Landore and Pelenna. The latter isn't ideal, but given that the revised proposals are blisteringly insane, it's still an improvement. Aberavon & Maesteg (69817) - I couldn't make a Port Talbot/Porthcawl seat work on the numbers, so this is the alternative. There's also a variant arrangement swapping Cornelly for Cefn Cribwr, Aberkenfig and Ynysawdre, creating a boundary along the M4 and the Ogmore Rhondda and Ogmore (73557) - internal links aren't great, but they're there, and this puts Gilfach Goch in one seat Bridgend (70770) - more like the present seat Vale of Glamorgan (70426) - Revised proposals seem fine here. Picture includes Sully but these numbers don't Cardiff West & Penarth (74789) - not convinced the internal connectivity works here, but it allows the following seat to look less silly than the Commission's Cardiff S & Penarth Cardiff Central (71427) - only shares one ward with the current seat of that name, but still seems like an accurate designation Cardiff East (72463) - as in the revised proposals Cardiff North (71143) - as in the revised proposals Pontypridd (73743) - as in the revised proposals Merthyr Tydfil & Upper Cynon (74805) - as in the revised proposals This is not bad if you think there's still time for large-scale change. I'm doubtful whether there is, but I'll go for anything that distracts me from the Tories so I thought I'd see what happens if I put the Dulais Valley in with B&R as well (and yes, there are roads - an A road, even). Would that allow me to keep the Cardiff I suggested the other day, the version without any RCT wards at all? I ended up with this.  Brecon & Radnor - 76110. Swansea - 73412. Neath - 72644. Aberavon - 74677. Briton Ferry is currently in Aberavon so I've kept it there, but there is (just) room for it in Neath if this would make 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ happy (in which case the numbers are Neath 77025, Aberavon 70496). Bridgend - 74630. Rhondda & Ogmore - 73557 Pontypridd - 73003. That leaves Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare as the BCW now has it and Cardiff and VoG as I suggested the other day.
Edited to add: Actually, on closer scrutiny Bettws ward fits better in Aberavon so if you make that switch it's Aberavon 76272, Rhondda & Ogmore 71962.
|
|
