|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 19, 2022 7:29:29 GMT
There is the occasional further change at this stage, but they are always small, and require a storm of protest. Certainly at local level, comments of ‘go back to your draft proposals’ are often taken seriously as the boundary commission has already said they think it’s a good idea. Don’t know if it will be true at national level as well. That Rhondda is a piece of art isn’t it? I can see angry psephologists making a pilgrimage to that bottleneck to see it for themselves.Maybe it's a desperate attempt to increase electorally related tourism?
|
|
|
Post by swanseaoptimist on Oct 19, 2022 7:30:13 GMT
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 19, 2022 7:32:36 GMT
A war between the Commissioners and the Assistant Commissioners!
Let the battle lines be drawn!
Except they won't be able to agree about the lines...
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
|
Post by YL on Oct 19, 2022 7:40:09 GMT
... though I'm not sure that the answer to the question "Should Montgomeryshire be linked with Meirionnydd or across the Berwyns" is "both".
|
|
|
Post by Penddu on Oct 19, 2022 7:54:54 GMT
Rhondda is near the minimum so if you simply added Brynna ward to it (3616 electors), I'm not saying the comms would be any better but it would look less horrible on the map, and Pontypridd would still be quorate. But Bridgend would then be too big..
|
|
|
Post by islington on Oct 19, 2022 8:10:52 GMT
Rhondda is near the minimum so if you simply added Brynna ward to it (3616 electors), I'm not saying the comms would be any better but it would look less horrible on the map, and Pontypridd would still be quorate. But Bridgend would then be too big.. No, I meant simply shifting Brynna compared with the BCW scheme, I wasn't suggesting any change to the BCW's Bridgend.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Oct 19, 2022 8:33:28 GMT
Why "Aberavon Porthcawl" and not "Aberavon & Porthcawl"? It appears to be Aberafan Porthcawl which is somehow worse.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 19, 2022 8:54:42 GMT
... though I'm not sure that the answer to the question "Should Montgomeryshire be linked with Meirionnydd or across the Berwyns" is "both". It also splits Abergele and makes Llangollen Rural an orphan ward. I think the former is forced by the numbers of the very tight arrangement they've picked and it's clearly a better plan than the actual one, but it's not exactly good.
|
|
cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
|
Post by cibwr on Oct 19, 2022 9:23:42 GMT
Pairing these for the new Senedd constituencies will be interesting!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2022 9:27:26 GMT
Only a fortnight before England and Scotland *on the same day*.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 19, 2022 9:51:24 GMT
I've had a look and it is possible to use the Assistant Commissioner's map as a base, take away the Berwyn crossing, reunite Abergele and dump the orphan ward. The downside is that it means you have to split the Llyn Peninsula north-south. Worth considering?
|
|
|
Post by Penddu on Oct 19, 2022 9:59:41 GMT
But Bridgend would then be too big.. No, I meant simply shifting Brynna compared with the BCW scheme, I wasn't suggesting any change to the BCW's Bridgend. Ahh - yes in which case I agree.
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Oct 19, 2022 10:01:22 GMT
Here are all the proposed constituencies where two or more current MPs have a >20% claim on the constituency.
Aberafan Porthcawl - Stephen Kinnock (68%) v Jamie Wallis (32%) Bangor Aberconwy - Robin Millar (64%) v Hywel Williams (25%) Brecon, Radnor and Cwm-tawe - Fay Jones (76%) v Christina Rees (24%) Bridgend - Jamie Wallis (51%) v Chris Elmore (49%) Cardiff East - Jo Stevens (65%) v Stephen Doughty (35%) Carmarthen - Jonathan Edwards (67%) v Simon Hart (33%) Ceredigion Preseli - Ben Lake (76%) v Stephen Crabb (24%) Clwyd East - Rob Roberts (55%) v James Davies (26%) Clwyd North - David Jones (53%) v James Davies (47%) Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Liz Saville-Roberts (64%) v Hywel Williams (36%) Gower and Swansea West - Tonia Antoniazzi (58%) v Geraint Davies (41%) Merthyr Tydfil and Upper Cynon - Gerald Jones (60%) v Beth Winter (40%) Mid and South Pembrokeshire - Stephen Crabb (54%) v Simon Hart (46%) Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - Craig Williams (64%) v Simon Baynes (36%) Neath and Swansea East - Christina Rees (55%) v Carolyn Harris (37%) Newport East - Jessica Morden (60%) v Ruth Jones (40%) Newport West and Islwyn - Chris Evans (52%) v Ruth Jones (48%) Pontypridd - Alex Davies-Jones (58%) v Beth Winter (29%) Swansea Central and North - Carolyn Harris (45%) v Geraint Davies (37%) Wrexham - Sarah Atherton (70%) v Simon Baynes (30%)
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,323
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2022 10:19:30 GMT
Obviously the Rhondda boundaries take the cake and so on, but it is worth looking at 'Newport West & Islwyn' (WHY) and certain little details elsewhere - have a look for Llangollen and try not to scream.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,323
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2022 10:22:20 GMT
There is the occasional further change at this stage, but they are always small, and require a storm of protest. These boundaries are bad enough that the latter is something worth instigating, frankly.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2022 10:33:30 GMT
Is this an instance where just relaxing the 5% difference threshold (even to 7.5% maybe) would have made drawing sensible seats a lot easier?
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 19, 2022 10:47:36 GMT
Is this an instance where just relaxing the 5% difference threshold (even to 7.5% maybe) would have made drawing sensible seats a lot easier? Wales always is, but I think it's a mistake to blame this plan on numerical constraints when glue-sniffing is right there as an accusation.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Oct 19, 2022 11:10:50 GMT
The fundamental issue, as stated in the initial proposals, those of the assistant commissioners, and widely discussed here, is what do you do with Montgomeryshire. Knock on effects stretch a long way into both south and north Wales, inescapably. The Commission has doubled down on keeping Montgomeryshire together, which means several of the assistant commissioners recommendations automatically fall. They have however followed the assistant commissioners recommendation to redraw the Caerphilly/Newport seats. I note that the Commission makes no attempt to justify the Pencoed polyp. Sometimes there is just a bit left over, and this seems to be it, with uniting Bridgend seen as more important.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 19, 2022 11:21:37 GMT
Reading through the recommendations, there are a lot of seats where the response to the initial proposals was near-universal outrage, but they proposed keeping it because one person (who was chiefly concerned with a neighbouring constituency) said it wasn't that bad. In contrast, everybody seems to have been fine with the initial proposals for Rhondda (not that those were good, but geography doesn't help) but they still junked it.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 19, 2022 11:29:04 GMT
I also note that Rhondda and Bridgend work if you transfer Pencoed to the latter and Ogmore Vale and the Garw Valley to the former. Road links still aren't brilliant, but they're better than in the BCW's proposal, they at least go via an A-road and importantly if you look at it on a map you don't immediately start questioning the sanity of the person who drew it.
|
|