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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 20, 2021 11:38:31 GMT
Or FPTP with 80 seats in a single constituency. Finally an election system that doesn't discriminate against Labour! But why bother with elections? Members of the Senedd could be appointed by the Prince of Wales (acting, of course, upon the advice of his mother's prime minister).
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,042
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Post by ilerda on Sept 20, 2021 12:01:26 GMT
Or FPTP with 80 seats in a single constituency. Finally an election system that doesn't discriminate against Labour! But why bother with elections? Members of the Senedd could be appointed by the Prince of Wales (acting, of course, upon the advice of his mother's prime minister). Beautiful. And convert the Senedd back into an Assembly that is simply there to hold the Secretary of State for Wales to account.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,539
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Post by johng on Sept 20, 2021 12:31:28 GMT
Or FPTP with 80 seats in a single constituency. Finally an election system that doesn't discriminate against Labour! FPTP has been the way nearly all elections in this country have been run since parliamentary democracy began. You forget it wasn't chosen by Labour. I also don't think it's ever been the case that Welsh Labour would try to push through a FPTP only system as a) it's clear no other party would support that and b) there is broad support for a relatively proportional system in Labour.
Personally, I would have no issue with 80 FPTP constituencies (obviously not a single one electing 80 members). It would allow true local representation. Obviously in the grand scheme of things, it would benefit Labour, but it would also allow parties to run strong local campaigns which is simply too difficult in most elections (Would Leanne Wood have retained a much smaller Rhondda seat? Quite possibly. Would the Greens have a chance in a much smaller Cardiff seat? Again, I think so).
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Post by johnloony on Sept 20, 2021 13:23:13 GMT
Finally an election system that doesn't discriminate against Labour! FPTP has been the way nearly all elections in this country have been run since parliamentary democracy began. You forget it wasn't chosen by Labour. I also don't think it's ever been the case that Welsh Labour would try to push through a FPTP only system as a) it's clear no other party would support that and b) there is broad support for a relatively proportional system in Labour.
Personally, I would have no issue with 80 FPTP constituencies (obviously not a single one electing 80 members). It would allow true local representation. Obviously in the grand scheme of things, it would benefit Labour, but it would also allow parties to run strong local campaigns which is simply too difficult in most elections (Would Leanne Wood have retained a much smaller Rhondda seat? Quite possibly. Would the Greens have a chance in a much smaller Cardiff seat? Again, I think so).
Obviously it would be ridiculous to have a Senedd elected by FPTP with 80 single-member seats, without any AMS top-up members. The only way FPTP would make sense is if it’s a single constituency with 80 members, or a block-vote election where the voter votes for a whole list of 80 candidates, without having to vote for 80 candidates individually (the party which gets a plurality of the votes nationally wins all 80 seats). To make it more straightforward and even more democratic, they could use the system which used to be used in Togo, where there is a single national list of candidates for one party.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 20, 2021 13:23:55 GMT
Finally an election system that doesn't discriminate against Labour! FPTP has been the way nearly all elections in this country have been run since parliamentary democracy began. by which point the country in question was under English occupation and had no national institutions. I fail to see the relevance now that you are free to make your own arrangements in this regard. (All of this is tongue-in-cheek. What's not is that some reform* is unavoidable - due to actions at Westminster! -, that Labour will have to find a compromise, and realistically one with PC, and that much time has been wasted already.) *even if it were just the minimal reform step of introducing separate reviews, perhaps under pre-13 rules, for Senedd constituencies. I don't think that's near the top of anybody's wishlist, but if you can't agree on anything else maybe you can agree on that?
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 20, 2021 16:53:33 GMT
FPTP has been the way nearly all elections in this country have been run since parliamentary democracy began. You forget it wasn't chosen by Labour. I also don't think it's ever been the case that Welsh Labour would try to push through a FPTP only system as a) it's clear no other party would support that and b) there is broad support for a relatively proportional system in Labour.
Personally, I would have no issue with 80 FPTP constituencies (obviously not a single one electing 80 members). It would allow true local representation. Obviously in the grand scheme of things, it would benefit Labour, but it would also allow parties to run strong local campaigns which is simply too difficult in most elections (Would Leanne Wood have retained a much smaller Rhondda seat? Quite possibly. Would the Greens have a chance in a much smaller Cardiff seat? Again, I think so).
Obviously it would be ridiculous to have a Senedd elected by FPTP with 80 single-member seats, without any AMS top-up members. The only way FPTP would make sense is if it’s a single constituency with 80 members, or a block-vote election where the voter votes for a whole list of 80 candidates, without having to vote for 80 candidates individually (the party which gets a plurality of the votes nationally wins all 80 seats). To make it more straightforward and even more democratic, they could use the system which used to be used in Togo, where there is a single national list of candidates for one party. Why would it be ridiculous? It's not ridiculous for Kent County Council to have 63 single-member and 9 two-member divisions (much though I'd wish to bisect those nine).
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,826
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 20, 2021 20:05:32 GMT
They should just have 80 members for the whole of Wales, elected in one national STV constituency. Or a national list system with allocation by D’Hondt divisors and no threshold. Or FPTP with 80 seats in a single constituency. Using an online calculator, a d'Hondt election with that rule would produce: Lab 31, Con 21, Plaid 18, Greens 3, Lib Dems 3, Abolish 3, UKIP 1
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Post by johnloony on Sept 20, 2021 22:04:32 GMT
Obviously it would be ridiculous to have a Senedd elected by FPTP with 80 single-member seats, without any AMS top-up members. The only way FPTP would make sense is if it’s a single constituency with 80 members, or a block-vote election where the voter votes for a whole list of 80 candidates, without having to vote for 80 candidates individually (the party which gets a plurality of the votes nationally wins all 80 seats). To make it more straightforward and even more democratic, they could use the system which used to be used in Togo, where there is a single national list of candidates for one party. Why would it be ridiculous? Because it's not ridiculous enough.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,280
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2021 11:09:36 GMT
So it occurs to me there's a slightly different way of doing a multiple-member STV system if they did head in that direction. It's possible to do it in a way that the constituencies are the same as the principal area authorities. To minimize population deviation you'd want to have 98 Senedd members in total How did You allocate the seats? With d'Hondt? Or the largestRemainder-method?
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,670
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 23, 2021 14:18:39 GMT
So it occurs to me there's a slightly different way of doing a multiple-member STV system if they did head in that direction. It's possible to do it in a way that the constituencies are the same as the principal area authorities. To minimize population deviation you'd want to have 98 Senedd members in total, with the seats ranging from 2-member seats to an 11-member seat in Cardiff. Population per Senedd member here would range from 29301 (Conwy) to 36348 (Ceredigion), or around 10% deviation from the median, which isn't ideal but still much better than the current situation. (I did it by total population thanks to not managing to find a list of principal areas by electorate size) Have attached a map of how many Senedd members each principal area would have. Naturally this wouldn't be the best for Labour given they're advantaged by the current MMP system, but if they're wanting to go for a setup that's most representative of local interests, something like this could be ideal. This would be a horror show. 11 and 8 seats are much, much too large for STV constituencies, and 2 and 3 seats are much too small. The only thing it would be representative of is a small group of deranged STV enthusiasts for whom all considerations and reality itself are secondary to minute details of the electoral system
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 23, 2021 15:49:07 GMT
So it occurs to me there's a slightly different way of doing a multiple-member STV system if they did head in that direction. It's possible to do it in a way that the constituencies are the same as the principal area authorities. To minimize population deviation you'd want to have 98 Senedd members in total, with the seats ranging from 2-member seats to an 11-member seat in Cardiff. Population per Senedd member here would range from 29301 (Conwy) to 36348 (Ceredigion), or around 10% deviation from the median, which isn't ideal but still much better than the current situation. (I did it by total population thanks to not managing to find a list of principal areas by electorate size) Have attached a map of how many Senedd members each principal area would have. Naturally this wouldn't be the best for Labour given they're advantaged by the current MMP system, but if they're wanting to go for a setup that's most representative of local interests, something like this could be ideal. This would be a horror show. 11 and 8 seats are much, much too large for STV constituencies, and 2 and 3 seats are much too small. The only thing it would be representative of is a small group of deranged STV enthusiasts for whom all considerations and reality itself are secondary to minute details of the electoral system At least it would ensure that people know what constitiency they're in. And oddly enough, while most places would be horribly served indeed with a two member STV constituency - one Tory, one Labour; why bother voting at all? - this is certainly not the case on Môn or in Ceredigion!
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Post by Penddu on Sept 23, 2021 17:19:47 GMT
This would be a horror show. 11 and 8 seats are much, much too large for STV constituencies, and 2 and 3 seats are much too small. The only thing it would be representative of is a small group of deranged STV enthusiasts for whom all considerations and reality itself are secondary to minute details of the electoral system At least it would ensure that people know what constitiency they're in. And oddly enough, while most places would be horribly served indeed with a two member STV constituency - one Tory, one Labour; why bother voting at all? - this is certainly not the case on Môn or in Ceredigion! Also highly unlikely to achieve 1 Lab and 1 Tory in Blaenau Gwent or Merthyr..
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 23, 2021 20:52:02 GMT
At least it would ensure that people know what constitiency they're in. And oddly enough, while most places would be horribly served indeed with a two member STV constituency - one Tory, one Labour; why bother voting at all? - this is certainly not the case on Môn or in Ceredigion! Also highly unlikely to achieve 1 Lab and 1 Tory in Blaenau Gwent or Merthyr.. yeah, those are 1 safe Labour, 1 unpredictable free for all. Labour would run two candidates.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 24, 2021 19:39:17 GMT
At least it would ensure that people know what constitiency they're in. And oddly enough, while most places would be horribly served indeed with a two member STV constituency - one Tory, one Labour; why bother voting at all? - this is certainly not the case on Môn or in Ceredigion! Also highly unlikely to achieve 1 Lab and 1 Tory in Blaenau Gwent or Merthyr. That map of the two 2-member areas in south Wales reminds me of some of the disjoined constituencies they used to have in Scotland before 1983 (with exclaves). The two 2s should be combined to make a 4-member constituency.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 26, 2021 14:23:11 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 26, 2021 16:48:21 GMT
Interesting that he thinks Sketty is Tory-dominated. Its 5 councillors are currently 2 C, 2 LD, 1 Lab ( seriously wacky result). Weird marginal place.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 26, 2021 18:35:09 GMT
I was amused reading that, because I was assuming it was a submission to the Boundary Commission rather than within the Labour Party. Thus the bit about electoral advantage seemed to very naive (or, to be more correct, irrelevant). In making submissions to Boundary Commissions, I have sometimes contemplated the idea of including a section on guesstimated notional election results, on the assumption that it would be correctly ignored by the BC but of interest to other people reading it. Perhaps in real life it would annoy the BC and thus be counter-productive, merely because the BC is made of humans rather than computers.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 26, 2021 18:36:53 GMT
Interesting that he thinks Sketty is Tory-dominated. Its 5 councillors are currently 2 C, 2 LD, 1 Lab ( seriously wacky result). Weird marginal place. The seriously wackiness of it comes from the fact that it is a 5-member ward elected by FPTP.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 26, 2021 19:16:13 GMT
Interesting that he thinks Sketty is Tory-dominated. Its 5 councillors are currently 2 C, 2 LD, 1 Lab ( seriously wacky result). Weird marginal place. The seriously wackiness of it comes from the fact that it is a 5-member ward elected by FPTP. Yes, that's idiotic in itself, although one would expect to get, say, 5 Lib Dems (which has happened before). But it's not even as if it would be that easy to gerrymander two or three solid single-member Conservative wards on the ground. The bit east of Vivian Road is generally absolutely hopeless (it looks, feels, and votes like Uplands), and one would want to draw out any hospital and student residences (so keep going down Sketty Lane). But contrary to the MP's assertion that the rest is like Mayals, it is actually really, really mixed – much of the Sketty Park area (look at New Mill Road on Google Streetview) looks much more like West Cross. And the overpriced new-build stuff up near Cefn Coed Hospital is already looking like a disappointment.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 26, 2021 19:17:23 GMT
The seriously wackiness of it comes from the fact that it is a 5-member ward elected by FPTP. Yes, that's idiotic in itself, although one would expect to get, say, 5 Lib Dems (which has happened before). But it's not even as if it would be that easy to gerrymander two or three solid single-member Conservative wards on the ground. The bit east of Vivian Road is generally absolutely hopeless (it looks, feels, and votes like Uplands), and one would want to draw out any hospital and student residences (so keep going down Sketty Lane). But contrary to the MP's assertion that the rest is like Mayals, it is actually really, really mixed – much of the Sketty Park area (look at New Mill Road on Google Streetview) looks much more like West Cross. And the overpriced new-build stuff up near Cefn Coed Hospital is already looking like a disappointment.Architecturally or politically?
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