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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 9, 2021 13:44:45 GMT
I've been thinking about what the various parties might want to put forward in the way of counterproposals.
In South Wales, the Tories will certainly oppose the split of Bridgend and Labour might well join them in that (because any vaguely respectable result for Labour ought to see us regaining the seat anyway.) I'd also expect a lot of proposals to tidy things up, but I'm not sure any of them would have massive partisan consequences.
In Dyfed, I'd imagine Plaid will want to try to alter things to their benefit in Carmarthenshire. I guess Labour would also prefer that Llanelli take the Amman Valley rather than the countryside between Carmarthen and Llanelli.
In the north, it's harder to tell, because a) we don't know if counterproposals will accept Montgomery & Glyndwr but try to improve the rest or change that as well and b) both Labour and the Tories could take a cautious approach, seeking to make their better seats more secure but worsen their position in others, or they could try to have as many swing seats as possible to maximise the potential number of MPs they could return. I would imagine Plaid will be quite supportive of Dwyfor Meirionydd though.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 9, 2021 13:57:22 GMT
Seats that could see two incumbent MPs going up against each other Aberafan Porthcawl - Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 56% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 44% Bridgend - Chris Elmore (Lab) 61% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 39% Carmarthen - Jonathan Edwards (PC/Ind) 66% v Simon Hart (Con) 34% Clwyd - David Jones (Con) 58% v James Davies (Con) 42% Delyn - Rob Roberts (Con) 64% v James Davies (Con) 26% v David Jones (Con) 10% Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Liz Saville Roberts (PC) 62% v Hywel Williams (PC) 38% Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare - Gerald Jones (Lab) 63% v Beth Winter (Lab) 32% v Wayne David (Lab) 5% Mid & South Pembrokeshire - Stephen Crabb (Con) 53% v Simon Hart (Con) 47% Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - Craig Williams (Con) 67% v Simon Baynes (Con) 32% Newport East - Jessica Morden (Lab) 60% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 40% Newport West & Caerphilly - Wayne David (Lab) 51% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 49% Pontypridd - Alex Davies-Jones (Lab) 60% v Beth Winter (Lab) 40% Swansea Central & North - Carolyn Harris (Lab) 48% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 35% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 17% Swansea East & Neath - Christina Rees (Lab) 52% v Carolyn Harris (Lab) 29% v Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 11% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 8% Swansea West & Gower - Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 58% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 41% Wrexham - Sarah Atherton (Con) 66% v Simon Baynes (Con) 34% My thoughts on some of those: Clwyd is likely to have David Jones as the Tory nominee, with Delyn having James Davies. Rob Roberts won't have a role given I don't expect him to get back into the party. Mid and South Pembrokeshire could go to either Crabb or Hart. Hart's probably fine going for Caerfryddin as it probably leans Tory, but if he decides he wants the safer seat, well, he's the more senior figure, and that'd leave Stephen Crabb up against Ben Lake for Ceredigion. In which I think Plaid would be favoured but the Tories would have a chance. And the other obvious incumbent vs incumbent seat is Aberconwy. Robin Millar (Con) vs Hywel Williams (PC) vs a Lab candidate. Plaid would be the definite underdog out of the three, but they'd have a chance. |
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Sept 9, 2021 13:58:16 GMT
I've been thinking about what the various parties might want to put forward in the way of counterproposals. In South Wales, the Tories will certainly oppose the split of Bridgend and Labour might well join them in that (because any vaguely respectable result for Labour ought to see us regaining the seat anyway.) I suspect there'll be a lot of comment from normal people on a seat called Aberavon Porthcawl coming all the way in to Cefn Glas. The Commission seem not to have understood that the area covered by Bridgend Town Council is very much on the small side and excludes some places that are very much inner suburbs of Bridgend. It's a really untidy place to put a constituency boundary. |
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Post by ian48 on Sept 9, 2021 14:23:52 GMT
Seats that could see two incumbent MPs going up against each other Aberafan Porthcawl - Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 56% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 44% Bridgend - Chris Elmore (Lab) 61% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 39% Carmarthen - Jonathan Edwards (PC/Ind) 66% v Simon Hart (Con) 34% Clwyd - David Jones (Con) 58% v James Davies (Con) 42% Delyn - Rob Roberts (Con) 64% v James Davies (Con) 26% v David Jones (Con) 10% Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Liz Saville Roberts (PC) 62% v Hywel Williams (PC) 38% Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare - Gerald Jones (Lab) 63% v Beth Winter (Lab) 32% v Wayne David (Lab) 5% Mid & South Pembrokeshire - Stephen Crabb (Con) 53% v Simon Hart (Con) 47% Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - Craig Williams (Con) 67% v Simon Baynes (Con) 32% Newport East - Jessica Morden (Lab) 60% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 40% Newport West & Caerphilly - Wayne David (Lab) 51% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 49% Pontypridd - Alex Davies-Jones (Lab) 60% v Beth Winter (Lab) 40% Swansea Central & North - Carolyn Harris (Lab) 48% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 35% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 17% Swansea East & Neath - Christina Rees (Lab) 52% v Carolyn Harris (Lab) 29% v Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 11% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 8% Swansea West & Gower - Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 58% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 41% Wrexham - Sarah Atherton (Con) 66% v Simon Baynes (Con) 34% My thoughts on some of those: Clwyd is likely to have David Jones as the Tory nominee, with Delyn having James Davies. Rob Roberts won't have a role given I don't expect him to get back into the party. Mid and South Pembrokeshire could go to either Crabb or Hart. Hart's probably fine going for Caerfryddin as it probably leans Tory, but if he decides he wants the safer seat, well, he's the more senior figure, and that'd leave Stephen Crabb up against Ben Lake for Ceredigion. In which I think Plaid would be favoured but the Tories would have a chance. And the other obvious incumbent vs incumbent seat is Aberconwy. Robin Millar (Con) vs Hywel Williams (PC) vs a Lab candidate. Plaid would be the definite underdog out of the three, but they'd have a chance. I would be surprised if David Jones stands again. He announced his retirement before the last election but took it back and decided to give it one last go. He'll be in his early 70s by the next election, so would be a natural time to retire once and for all. |
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Sept 9, 2021 14:28:25 GMT
I've been thinking about what the various parties might want to put forward in the way of counterproposals. In South Wales, the Tories will certainly oppose the split of Bridgend and Labour might well join them in that (because any vaguely respectable result for Labour ought to see us regaining the seat anyway.) I suspect there'll be a lot of comment from normal people on a seat called Aberavon Porthcawl coming all the way in to Cefn Glas. The Commission seem not to have understood that the area covered by Bridgend Town Council is very much on the small side and excludes some places that are very much inner suburbs of Bridgend. It's a really untidy place to put a constituency boundary. To be honest, I don't think the Commission understand Wales very much at all. Anyone who was an active Commissioner, with an interest in boundaries and a knowledge of Welsh geography and regional ties could have come up with a map better than this, even with the constraints they are working under. At least one of the Commissioners is someone I think should have known better but either he just waved it through or he was outvoted by people who haven't any interest in the process and perhaps are just relying on submissions to lead them to a conclusion. |
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Post by nyx on Sept 9, 2021 16:04:55 GMT
My thoughts on some of those: Clwyd is likely to have David Jones as the Tory nominee, with Delyn having James Davies. Rob Roberts won't have a role given I don't expect him to get back into the party. Mid and South Pembrokeshire could go to either Crabb or Hart. Hart's probably fine going for Caerfryddin as it probably leans Tory, but if he decides he wants the safer seat, well, he's the more senior figure, and that'd leave Stephen Crabb up against Ben Lake for Ceredigion. In which I think Plaid would be favoured but the Tories would have a chance. And the other obvious incumbent vs incumbent seat is Aberconwy. Robin Millar (Con) vs Hywel Williams (PC) vs a Lab candidate. Plaid would be the definite underdog out of the three, but they'd have a chance. I would be surprised if David Jones stands again. He announced his retirement before the last election but took it back and decided to give it one last go. He'll be in his early 70s by the next election, so would be a natural time to retire once and for all. In that case Davies is in a very favourable position of being able to choose which constituency he stands in! Rare for someone whose seat was carved up to be in that position. I suppose he'd probably go for Clwyd, its predecessor having been Conservative for longer. |
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Post by hugh01 on Sept 9, 2021 17:56:45 GMT
That's the basic playing it straight idea β it's not silly at all putting the two mid-north gΓ¦Μth fΓ¦Μch wrth y tΓ¦Μn counties together at all: they have a lot in common, although Montgomeryshire is clearly the better of the two in every way β it's the county that's enjoying the Eisteddfod sinking shots with the Ffermwyr Ifainc whilst Meirionnydd's at the Oedfa doing its best expression from a Kate Roberts novel. It's a long-running failing of the Welsh Commission that they have treated Meirionnydd anomalously favourably compared to that other grossly undersized county, Radnorshire. There are details of this plan here and there that I'd do differently, but that's the configuration one gets if one is not trying to rig it to save Dwyfor Meirionnydd, which at the last successful review was of course an abomination that put people who lived in bustling metropolises like Tudweiliog and Aberdaron into "a constituency centred on Dolgellau". What I'd change is: - Ensure that all of the Porthmadog wards are in Caernarfon β let's not split a town unnecessarily
- Put the four Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr wards into Caernarfon to allow the Conwy constituency to come farther inland
- Buckley and Ewloe into the artist formerly known as Delyn, rather than Connah's Quay and Shotton (this makes Sealand look less odd, if that is possible)
- Coedpoeth and Minera into the artist formerly known as Alyn and Deeside, rather than Gresford and Rossett (this is completely on the level of prejudice)
- Call the constituencies Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd, Caernarfon, Conwy (or Clwyd West), Denbigh (or Vale of Clwyd), West Flintshire (or Delyn), East Flintshire (or Alyn and Deeside), and Wrexham
I agree with this map and with your comments on the switch around of wards. Llanfairfechan definitely looks more towards Bangor than it does towards Llandudno and Colwyn Bay. And as you recommend, I would also include Caerhun, Llansanffraid and Betws yn Rhos wards in the Conwy Coastal seat (Caerhun's shape is odd but most of it is uninhabited mountains, the north east corner is the most inhabited and it's the suburbs of Conwy). Despite the Denbighshire seat being just based on the county, i would add Llansannan and Uwchaled wards to that seat too, just to ease things up slightly. I would agree with adding both the Llansannan and Uwchaled wards to the Denbighshire seat. Llansannan is naturaly a hinterland of Denbigh, it is the natural place people go to shop, use libraries and leisure centre. Similarly Uwchaled is a the natural hinterland of Corwen, Both wards really don't belong in Conwy UA - on local gov reorg both should have followed the Trefnant Ward out of the old Colwyn Borough into Denbighshire UA as all of their natural connections are with Denbigh and Corwen not Abergele and Llanrwst |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 9, 2021 18:04:17 GMT
That's the basic playing it straight idea β it's not silly at all putting the two mid-north gΓ¦Μth fΓ¦Μch wrth y tΓ¦Μn counties together at all: they have a lot in common, although Montgomeryshire is clearly the better of the two in every way β it's the county that's enjoying the Eisteddfod sinking shots with the Ffermwyr Ifainc whilst Meirionnydd's at the Oedfa doing its best expression from a Kate Roberts novel. (coughs) Kate Roberts was a Caernarfonshire girl. Well, when I say "girl" I mean "old lady". I suspect she was born old. And scowling. Some good writing though. |
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Post by hugh01 on Sept 9, 2021 19:45:53 GMT
That's the basic playing it straight idea β it's not silly at all putting the two mid-north gΓ¦Μth fΓ¦Μch wrth y tΓ¦Μn counties together at all: they have a lot in common, although Montgomeryshire is clearly the better of the two in every way β it's the county that's enjoying the Eisteddfod sinking shots with the Ffermwyr Ifainc whilst Meirionnydd's at the Oedfa doing its best expression from a Kate Roberts novel. (coughs) Kate Roberts was a Caernarfonshire girl. Well, when I say "girl" I mean "old lady". I suspect she was born old. And scowling. Some good writing though. She is always remembered as a Caernarfonshire girl but in reality she lived in Denbigh for 50 years, longer than she lived in Caernarfonshire. I suppose because all of her writing was up there |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 9, 2021 20:04:04 GMT
Seats that could see two incumbent MPs going up against each other Aberafan Porthcawl - Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 56% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 44% Bridgend - Chris Elmore (Lab) 61% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 39% Carmarthen - Jonathan Edwards (PC/Ind) 66% v Simon Hart (Con) 34% Clwyd - David Jones (Con) 58% v James Davies (Con) 42% Delyn - Rob Roberts (Con) 64% v James Davies (Con) 26% v David Jones (Con) 10% Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Liz Saville Roberts (PC) 62% v Hywel Williams (PC) 38% Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare - Gerald Jones (Lab) 63% v Beth Winter (Lab) 32% v Wayne David (Lab) 5% Mid & South Pembrokeshire - Stephen Crabb (Con) 53% v Simon Hart (Con) 47% Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - Craig Williams (Con) 67% v Simon Baynes (Con) 32% Newport East - Jessica Morden (Lab) 60% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 40% Newport West & Caerphilly - Wayne David (Lab) 51% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 49% Pontypridd - Alex Davies-Jones (Lab) 60% v Beth Winter (Lab) 40% Swansea Central & North - Carolyn Harris (Lab) 48% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 35% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 17% Swansea East & Neath - Christina Rees (Lab) 52% v Carolyn Harris (Lab) 29% v Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 11% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 8% Swansea West & Gower - Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 58% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 41% Wrexham - Sarah Atherton (Con) 66% v Simon Baynes (Con) 34% I am glad to see you have more sense than the Western Mail who suggested that Stephen Crabb would seek the Con nomination in Ceredigion Preseli! |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 9, 2021 20:29:14 GMT
Seats that could see two incumbent MPs going up against each other Aberafan Porthcawl - Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 56% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 44% Bridgend - Chris Elmore (Lab) 61% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 39% Carmarthen - Jonathan Edwards (PC/Ind) 66% v Simon Hart (Con) 34% Clwyd - David Jones (Con) 58% v James Davies (Con) 42% Delyn - Rob Roberts (Con) 64% v James Davies (Con) 26% v David Jones (Con) 10% Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Liz Saville Roberts (PC) 62% v Hywel Williams (PC) 38% Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare - Gerald Jones (Lab) 63% v Beth Winter (Lab) 32% v Wayne David (Lab) 5% Mid & South Pembrokeshire - Stephen Crabb (Con) 53% v Simon Hart (Con) 47% Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - Craig Williams (Con) 67% v Simon Baynes (Con) 32% Newport East - Jessica Morden (Lab) 60% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 40% Newport West & Caerphilly - Wayne David (Lab) 51% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 49% Pontypridd - Alex Davies-Jones (Lab) 60% v Beth Winter (Lab) 40% Swansea Central & North - Carolyn Harris (Lab) 48% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 35% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 17% Swansea East & Neath - Christina Rees (Lab) 52% v Carolyn Harris (Lab) 29% v Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 11% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 8% Swansea West & Gower - Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 58% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 41% Wrexham - Sarah Atherton (Con) 66% v Simon Baynes (Con) 34% Looks to me like those in most trouble for Labour are Beth Winter and Geraint Davies. And for the Conservatives Jamie Wallis, Simon Baynes and one of Simon Hart/ Stephen Crabb. |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 9, 2021 20:34:11 GMT
The names of some of the seats are also an issue-the Clwyd seat is largely a resurrected pre-1983 Denbigh and should be renamed Denbigh thus. The expansion of Dwyfor Meirionydd means it should now be Meirionydd a Caernarfon.
The Ceredigion and Preseli seat does not cover a considerable proportion of the Preseli hills or the now defunct Preseli district. Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire is a better name. Mid and South Pembrokeshire can be shortened to South Pembrokeshire.
As for alternative boundary recommendations....
Ammanford sits better in a Llanelli seat than a Carmarthen seat.
The Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare seat can do without the splitting of small towns, diolch yn fawr.
Rhyl and Prestatyn should ideally be in the same constituency, and amazingly enough it is possible to (mostly) recreate the pre-1983 West Flintshire and pre-1983 East Flintshire. Ruthin does not belong in the same constituency as Prestatyn and neither Flintshire seat should incorporate any part of Wrexham!
The Pentir ward belongs with the city of Bangor and the Mechdre ward is part of Colwyn Bay for all intents and purposes, not Rhos-on-Sea.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 9, 2021 20:58:02 GMT
(coughs) Kate Roberts was a Caernarfonshire girl. Well, when I say "girl" I mean "old lady". I suspect she was born old. And scowling. Some good writing though. She is always remembered as a Caernarfonshire girl but in reality she lived in Denbigh for 50 years, longer than she lived in Caernarfonshire. I suppose because all of her writing was up there That would make me a Cheshire boy . . .  |
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Post by nyx on Sept 9, 2021 21:07:32 GMT
Seats that could see two incumbent MPs going up against each other Aberafan Porthcawl - Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 56% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 44% Bridgend - Chris Elmore (Lab) 61% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 39% Carmarthen - Jonathan Edwards (PC/Ind) 66% v Simon Hart (Con) 34% Clwyd - David Jones (Con) 58% v James Davies (Con) 42% Delyn - Rob Roberts (Con) 64% v James Davies (Con) 26% v David Jones (Con) 10% Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Liz Saville Roberts (PC) 62% v Hywel Williams (PC) 38% Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare - Gerald Jones (Lab) 63% v Beth Winter (Lab) 32% v Wayne David (Lab) 5% Mid & South Pembrokeshire - Stephen Crabb (Con) 53% v Simon Hart (Con) 47% Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - Craig Williams (Con) 67% v Simon Baynes (Con) 32% Newport East - Jessica Morden (Lab) 60% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 40% Newport West & Caerphilly - Wayne David (Lab) 51% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 49% Pontypridd - Alex Davies-Jones (Lab) 60% v Beth Winter (Lab) 40% Swansea Central & North - Carolyn Harris (Lab) 48% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 35% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 17% Swansea East & Neath - Christina Rees (Lab) 52% v Carolyn Harris (Lab) 29% v Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 11% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 8% Swansea West & Gower - Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 58% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 41% Wrexham - Sarah Atherton (Con) 66% v Simon Baynes (Con) 34% I am glad to see you have more sense than the Western Mail who suggested that Stephen Crabb would seek the Con nomination in Ceredigion Preseli! Assuming all of Preseli Pembrokeshire voted the same way (as I have no ward data), the new Ceredigion Preseliβs notional 2019 results would in fact be 29.69% Conservative, 29.54% Plaid Cymru, 21.82% Labour, 13.97% Lib Dem. This assumption could well be wrong if the Conservatives are stronger in the south of the current seat, but itβs still likely to be competitive regardless. The sensible option would be for Crabb to get Pembrokeshire and Hart to get Caerfryddin, as both seats will favour the Tories, but if Hart insists on getting the Pembrokeshire seat (feasible as heβs more senior), Crabb will be forced to fight for Ceredigion. |
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Post by Penddu on Sept 10, 2021 5:13:31 GMT
I've been thinking about what the various parties might want to put forward in the way of counterproposals. In South Wales, the Tories will certainly oppose the split of Bridgend and Labour might well join them in that (because any vaguely respectable result for Labour ought to see us regaining the seat anyway.) I suspect there'll be a lot of comment from normal people on a seat called Aberavon Porthcawl coming all the way in to Cefn Glas. The Commission seem not to have understood that the area covered by Bridgend Town Council is very much on the small side and excludes some places that are very much inner suburbs of Bridgend. It's a really untidy place to put a constituency boundary. Cutting Cefn Glas and Bryntirion out of Bridgend is stupid. It would be more logical to move Maesteg into Aberafan seat and keep Bridgend intact. But that wont work because it would make Aberafan over quota. A simple change of swapping Cefn Glas and Llangewydd into Bridgend and placing Cefn Cribwr in Aberafan would work. This still leaves Bryntirion out of Bridgend but maybe it is time to split this ward in any case - with the village of Laleston and the new Broadlands area combining and moving into Aberafan, with the older Bryntirion area (which is contiguous with Cefn Glas) joining Bridgend. I will check the numbers and make a formal proposal to BCW. |
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Post by islington on Sept 10, 2021 8:09:42 GMT
I agree with this map and with your comments on the switch around of wards. Llanfairfechan definitely looks more towards Bangor than it does towards Llandudno and Colwyn Bay. And as you recommend, I would also include Caerhun, Llansanffraid and Betws yn Rhos wards in the Conwy Coastal seat (Caerhun's shape is odd but most of it is uninhabited mountains, the north east corner is the most inhabited and it's the suburbs of Conwy). Despite the Denbighshire seat being just based on the county, i would add Llansannan and Uwchaled wards to that seat too, just to ease things up slightly. I would agree with adding both the Llansannan and Uwchaled wards to the Denbighshire seat. Llansannan is naturaly a hinterland of Denbigh, it is the natural place people go to shop, use libraries and leisure centre. Similarly Uwchaled is a the natural hinterland of Corwen, Both wards really don't belong in Conwy UA - on local gov reorg both should have followed the Trefnant Ward out of the old Colwyn Borough into Denbighshire UA as all of their natural connections are with Denbigh and Corwen not Abergele and Llanrwst I don't agree with this approach: it's not the job of a Parliamentary review to 'fix' defective local government boundaries. If the boundaries of Denbighshire UA aren't right, a local government boundary review is the correct (and only) remedy. |
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Post by islington on Sept 10, 2021 8:19:16 GMT
I suspect there'll be a lot of comment from normal people on a seat called Aberavon Porthcawl coming all the way in to Cefn Glas. The Commission seem not to have understood that the area covered by Bridgend Town Council is very much on the small side and excludes some places that are very much inner suburbs of Bridgend. It's a really untidy place to put a constituency boundary. Cutting Cefn Glas and Bryntirion out of Bridgend is stupid. It would be more logical to move Maesteg into Aberafan seat and keep Bridgend intact. But that wont work because it would make Aberafan over quota. A simple change of swapping Cefn Glas and Llangewydd into Bridgend and placing Cefn Cribwr in Aberafan would work. This still leaves Bryntirion out of Bridgend but maybe it is time to split this ward in any case - with the village of Laleston and the new Broadlands area combining and moving into Aberafan, with the older Bryntirion area (which is contiguous with Cefn Glas) joining Bridgend. I will check the numbers and make a formal proposal to BCW. As a limited adjustment to the BCW plan, this makes a lot of sense and gets the great majority of Bridgend town into the eponymous seat. Alternatively, if you want something more radical that keeps Bridgend and Porthcawl together, would this fly?
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Sept 10, 2021 9:28:01 GMT
Cutting Cefn Glas and Bryntirion out of Bridgend is stupid. It would be more logical to move Maesteg into Aberafan seat and keep Bridgend intact. But that wont work because it would make Aberafan over quota. A simple change of swapping Cefn Glas and Llangewydd into Bridgend and placing Cefn Cribwr in Aberafan would work. This still leaves Bryntirion out of Bridgend but maybe it is time to split this ward in any case - with the village of Laleston and the new Broadlands area combining and moving into Aberafan, with the older Bryntirion area (which is contiguous with Cefn Glas) joining Bridgend. I will check the numbers and make a formal proposal to BCW. As a limited adjustment to the BCW plan, this makes a lot of sense and gets the great majority of Bridgend town into the eponymous seat. Alternatively, if you want something more radical that keeps Bridgend and Porthcawl together, would this fly?
What are the numbers for that? It would be better not to cross the M4 to the north of Bridgend (those places just north of the M4 really run into one another) and just add the three Pencoed wards to the east if that doesn't push Aberavon over the upper limit? And if it does, can it be remedied by putting Briton Ferry into Neath (then Clydach into B&R, then the two GCG wards into Carmarthen, perhaps...)? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 10, 2021 9:50:59 GMT
My thoughts on some of those: Clwyd is likely to have David Jones as the Tory nominee, with Delyn having James Davies. Rob Roberts won't have a role given I don't expect him to get back into the party.Mid and South Pembrokeshire could go to either Crabb or Hart. Hart's probably fine going for Caerfryddin as it probably leans Tory, but if he decides he wants the safer seat, well, he's the more senior figure, and that'd leave Stephen Crabb up against Ben Lake for Ceredigion. In which I think Plaid would be favoured but the Tories would have a chance. And the other obvious incumbent vs incumbent seat is Aberconwy. Robin Millar (Con) vs Hywel Williams (PC) vs a Lab candidate. Plaid would be the definite underdog out of the three, but they'd have a chance. You might think that, but..... |
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Post by islington on Sept 10, 2021 9:53:11 GMT
As a limited adjustment to the BCW plan, this makes a lot of sense and gets the great majority of Bridgend town into the eponymous seat. Alternatively, if you want something more radical that keeps Bridgend and Porthcawl together, would this fly?
What are the numbers for that? It would be better not to cross the M4 to the north of Bridgend (those places just north of the M4 really run into one another) and just add the three Pencoed wards to the east if that doesn't push Aberavon over the upper limit? And if it does, can it be remedied by putting Briton Ferry into Neath (then Clydach into B&R, then the two GCG wards into Carmarthen, perhaps...)? I should have posted the numbers, which are: Bridgend 75302; Aberavon & Ogmore Vale 75878. The BCW's proposed B&R seat, including the Swansea Valley wards, is 72113 so it can't take Clydach. Swansea + NPT (without the Swansea Valley) + Bridgend = 373234 = 5.15 so it can receive 5 seats (as it does in the BCW scheme) but you have to err on the large side. If you take the current Aberavon seat, minus the three Coadffranc wards, together with Bridgend UA you have 151180 electors, who can form two largish seats either as I posted above or (probably better) as suggested by Penddu just upthread, whose numbers are: Aberavon 74734; Bridgend 76446. (Assuming no ward split.)
This leaves you with the rest of NPT plus Swansea, total 227054. You could slice Swansea itself three ways as the BCW suggests, but I prefer to keep viable Gower and Neath seats and have a single 'small Swansea' seat that still contains the heart of the town. I posted this on Wednesday at 12:12 - it's at the top of page 15. Note that the electorates are Gower 76801, Swansea 73412, Neath 76841, so it's all averaging on the high side.
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