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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 8, 2021 22:09:27 GMT
My only real objection to the Aberconwy seat is the inclusion of Rhos-on-Sea and Mochdre, not that I'm opposed to having them in the seat per se, but as others have said those two divisions really would be better off going wherever Colwyn Bay goes. Additionally, I feel that Pentir division would probably be better off being kept with Bangor, in whatever seat that settlement winds up in. I'm not at all a North Wales person so this post may be total nonsense, but would the map below meet any of the concerns that have been expressed in this area? If nothing else, it's certainly more respectful of LA boundaries than the BCW scheme.
The starting-point is the realization that the former counties of Merioneth and Montgomery, taken together, and with a few adjustments at the margins to fit current boundaries, are the right size for a seat. But there may be some very good reason why these two areas should never, ever, not until hell freezes over and probably not even then, be yoked together; in which case the whole thing falls to the ground.
But it must be said that with the M&M seat in place, everything else seemed to fit together quite well.
 Caernarvon - 76022. Conwy - 74719. Denbigh - 74078. North Flintshire - 71112. South Flintshire - 73450.
Merioneth and Montgomery - 76128. (Maybe some kind person would help me with the Welsh.) Wrexham - 70919.
That's the basic playing it straight idea – it's not silly at all putting the two mid-north gæ̂th fæ̂ch wrth y tæ̂n counties together at all: they have a lot in common, although Montgomeryshire is clearly the better of the two in every way – it's the county that's enjoying the Eisteddfod sinking shots with the Ffermwyr Ifainc whilst Meirionnydd's at the Oedfa doing its best expression from a Kate Roberts novel. It's a long-running failing of the Welsh Commission that they have treated Meirionnydd anomalously favourably compared to that other grossly undersized county, Radnorshire. There are details of this plan here and there that I'd do differently, but that's the configuration one gets if one is not trying to rig it to save Dwyfor Meirionnydd, which at the last successful review was of course an abomination that put people who lived in bustling metropolises like Tudweiliog and Aberdaron into "a constituency centred on Dolgellau". What I'd change is: - Ensure that all of the Porthmadog wards are in Caernarfon – let's not split a town unnecessarily
- Put the four Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr wards into Caernarfon to allow the Conwy constituency to come farther inland
- Buckley and Ewloe into the artist formerly known as Delyn, rather than Connah's Quay and Shotton (this makes Sealand look less odd, if that is possible)
- Coedpoeth and Minera into the artist formerly known as Alyn and Deeside, rather than Gresford and Rossett (this is completely on the level of prejudice)
- Call the constituencies Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd, Caernarfon, Conwy (or Clwyd West), Denbigh (or Vale of Clwyd), West Flintshire (or Delyn), East Flintshire (or Alyn and Deeside), and Wrexham
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 9, 2021 0:38:39 GMT
I think the main objection to pairing Merionethshire with Montgomeryshire has always been the desire to avoid a (west) coast-to-border seat. Nothing to do with the two counties being considered culturally incompatible or anything like that.
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 9, 2021 6:48:40 GMT
I think the main objection to pairing Merionethshire with Montgomeryshire has always been the desire to avoid a (west) coast-to-border seat. Nothing to do with the two counties being considered culturally incompatible or anything like that. I assume it's a combination of that, the distances involved, and the language issue: a concern in Meirionnydd about being in a constituency which they might see as dominated by anglicised eastern Montgomeryshire. (I can't imagine many people in Meirionnydd would be bothered by being in a constituency with Machynlleth.) But I have only visited the area on holiday and might well be wrong. What I don't think it is is a "Plaidmander". I'm quite confident that Plaid Cymru would win islington's Caernarfon seat, and it's not as if the BCW's approach gives them more than one seat in the North; Electoral Calculus has the proposed new Aberconwy as Tory, but I imagine Labour are not far behind if they are behind at all and Plaid are some way behind in third. (For the record, a look at the plan I posted on page 4 of this thread will show that I'm not committed to treating the Montgomeryshire/Meirionnydd border as sacrosanct.) |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 9, 2021 7:39:34 GMT
Rock solid (swing of 10% or more to change hands)
Conservative WINS: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (30% majority)
Labour WINS: Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (29% majority), Cardiff Central (38% majority), Cardiff South and Penarth (22% majority), Cardiff West (23% majority), Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare (31% majority), Pontypridd (20% majority), Rhondda (32% majority)
Plaid WINS: Dwyfor Meirionnydd (21% majority)
Liable to change hands (swing of between 5% and 10% to change hands)
Conservative WINS: Brecon and Radnorshire (19% majority), Carmarthen (12% majority), Clwyd (11% majority), Mid and South Pembrokeshire (15% majority), Monmouthshire (16% majority),
Labour WINS: Aberafan Porthcawl (17% majority), Bridgend (12% majority), Cardiff North (13% majority), Islwyn (16% majority), Swansea Central and North (20% majority), Swansea East and Neath (19% majority), Swansea West and Gower (10% majority)
Plaid WINS:
Battlegrounds (swing of between 1% and 5% to change hands)
Conservative WINS: Aberconwy (2.15% majority), Delyn (4.36% majority), Vale of Glamorgan (6.50% majority), Wrexham (5.35% majority), Ynys Môn (5.38% majority)
Labour WINS: Llanelli (7.79% majority), Newport East (4.07% majority), Newport West and Carephilly (9.57% majority), Torfaen (5.93% majority),
Plaid WINS:
Too close to calls
Alyn and Deeside: Con 21,431, Lab 21,434, Lib Dem 2,950, Reform 3,035, Plaid 1,806
Ceredigion Preseli: Con 15,894, Lab 11,671, Lib Dem 7,612, Reform 2,063, Green 663, Plaid 16,119
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Sept 9, 2021 8:15:05 GMT
I'm not at all a North Wales person so this post may be total nonsense, but would the map below meet any of the concerns that have been expressed in this area? If nothing else, it's certainly more respectful of LA boundaries than the BCW scheme. The starting-point is the realization that the former counties of Merioneth and Montgomery, taken together, and with a few adjustments at the margins to fit current boundaries, are the right size for a seat. But there may be some very good reason why these two areas should never, ever, not until hell freezes over and probably not even then, be yoked together; in which case the whole thing falls to the ground. But it must be said that with the M&M seat in place, everything else seemed to fit together quite well.
Caernarvon - 76022. Conwy - 74719. Denbigh - 74078. North Flintshire - 71112. South Flintshire - 73450.
Merioneth and Montgomery - 76128. (Maybe some kind person would help me with the Welsh.) Wrexham - 70919.
That's the basic playing it straight idea – it's not silly at all putting the two mid-north gæ̂th fæ̂ch wrth y tæ̂n counties together at all: they have a lot in common, although Montgomeryshire is clearly the better of the two in every way – it's the county that's enjoying the Eisteddfod sinking shots with the Ffermwyr Ifainc whilst Meirionnydd's at the Oedfa doing its best expression from a Kate Roberts novel. It's a long-running failing of the Welsh Commission that they have treated Meirionnydd anomalously favourably compared to that other grossly undersized county, Radnorshire. There are details of this plan here and there that I'd do differently, but that's the configuration one gets if one is not trying to rig it to save Dwyfor Meirionnydd, which at the last successful review was of course an abomination that put people who lived in bustling metropolises like Tudweiliog and Aberdaron into "a constituency centred on Dolgellau". What I'd change is: - Ensure that all of the Porthmadog wards are in Caernarfon – let's not split a town unnecessarily
- Put the four Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr wards into Caernarfon to allow the Conwy constituency to come farther inland
- Buckley and Ewloe into the artist formerly known as Delyn, rather than Connah's Quay and Shotton (this makes Sealand look less odd, if that is possible)
- Coedpoeth and Minera into the artist formerly known as Alyn and Deeside, rather than Gresford and Rossett (this is completely on the level of prejudice)
- Call the constituencies Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd, Caernarfon, Conwy (or Clwyd West), Denbigh (or Vale of Clwyd), West Flintshire (or Delyn), East Flintshire (or Alyn and Deeside), and Wrexham
I agree with this map and with your comments on the switch around of wards. Llanfairfechan definitely looks more towards Bangor than it does towards Llandudno and Colwyn Bay. And as you recommend, I would also include Caerhun, Llansanffraid and Betws yn Rhos wards in the Conwy Coastal seat (Caerhun's shape is odd but most of it is uninhabited mountains, the north east corner is the most inhabited and it's the suburbs of Conwy). Despite the Denbighshire seat being just based on the county, i would add Llansannan and Uwchaled wards to that seat too, just to ease things up slightly. |
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Post by islington on Sept 9, 2021 8:26:53 GMT
I'm not at all a North Wales person so this post may be total nonsense, but would the map below meet any of the concerns that have been expressed in this area? If nothing else, it's certainly more respectful of LA boundaries than the BCW scheme.
The starting-point is the realization that the former counties of Merioneth and Montgomery, taken together, and with a few adjustments at the margins to fit current boundaries, are the right size for a seat. But there may be some very good reason why these two areas should never, ever, not until hell freezes over and probably not even then, be yoked together; in which case the whole thing falls to the ground.
But it must be said that with the M&M seat in place, everything else seemed to fit together quite well.
Caernarvon - 76022. Conwy - 74719. Denbigh - 74078. North Flintshire - 71112. South Flintshire - 73450.
Merioneth and Montgomery - 76128. (Maybe some kind person would help me with the Welsh.) Wrexham - 70919.
That's the basic playing it straight idea – it's not silly at all putting the two mid-north gæ̂th fæ̂ch wrth y tæ̂n counties together at all: they have a lot in common, although Montgomeryshire is clearly the better of the two in every way – it's the county that's enjoying the Eisteddfod sinking shots with the Ffermwyr Ifainc whilst Meirionnydd's at the Oedfa doing its best expression from a Kate Roberts novel. It's a long-running failing of the Welsh Commission that they have treated Meirionnydd anomalously favourably compared to that other grossly undersized county, Radnorshire. There are details of this plan here and there that I'd do differently, but that's the configuration one gets if one is not trying to rig it to save Dwyfor Meirionnydd, which at the last successful review was of course an abomination that put people who lived in bustling metropolises like Tudweiliog and Aberdaron into "a constituency centred on Dolgellau". What I'd change is: - Ensure that all of the Porthmadog wards are in Caernarfon – let's not split a town unnecessarily Sorry, I didn't realize I had split it (I tried not to). Which wards need to be moved?
- Put the four Llanfairfechan and Penmaenmawr wards into Caernarfon to allow the Conwy constituency to come farther inland No problem with this in principle, but I thought people wanted to keep all the coastal towns together. But the change you suggest has the merit that the Caernarfon seat would no longer stretch so far east, and would coincide better (but not exactly) with the historic county.
- Buckley and Ewloe into the artist formerly known as Delyn, rather than Connah's Quay and Shotton (this makes Sealand look less odd, if that is possible) Fine with this (and the following point). The key issue is that Flints and Wrexham LAs should collectively receive three seats.
- Coedpoeth and Minera into the artist formerly known as Alyn and Deeside, rather than Gresford and Rossett (this is completely on the level of prejudice)
- Call the constituencies Montgomeryshire and Meirionnydd, Caernarfon, Conwy (or Clwyd West), Denbigh (or Vale of Clwyd), West Flintshire (or Delyn), East Flintshire (or Alyn and Deeside), and Wrexham I'm more concerned about boundaries than names but I prefer your unbracketed suggestions.
Thanks for feedback. Comments in red above. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2021 8:27:39 GMT
Rock solid (swing of 10% or more to change hands)Conservative WINS: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (30% majority)Labour WINS: Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (29% majority), Cardiff Central (38% majority), Cardiff South and Penarth (22% majority), Cardiff West (23% majority), Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare (31% majority), Pontypridd (20% majority), Rhondda (32% majority)Plaid WINS: Dwyfor Meirionnydd (21% majority)Liable to change hands (swing of between 5% and 10% to change hands)Conservative WINS: Brecon and Radnorshire (19% majority), Carmarthen (12% majority), Clwyd (11% majority), Mid and South Pembrokeshire (15% majority), Monmouthshire (16% majority), Labour WINS: Aberafan Porthcawl (17% majority), Bridgend (12% majority), Cardiff North (13% majority), Islwyn (16% majority), Swansea Central and North (20% majority), Swansea East and Neath (19% majority), Swansea West and Gower (10% majority)Plaid WINS: Battlegrounds (swing of between 1% and 5% to change hands)Conservative WINS: Aberconwy (2.15% majority), Delyn (4.36% majority), Vale of Glamorgan (6.50% majority), Wrexham (5.35% majority), Ynys Môn (5.38% majority)Labour WINS: Llanelli (7.79% majority), Newport East (4.07% majority), Newport West and Carephilly (9.57% majority), Torfaen (5.93% majority), Plaid WINS: Too close to calls
Alyn and Deeside: Con 21,431, Lab 21,434, Lib Dem 2,950, Reform 3,035, Plaid 1,806
Ceredigion Preseli: Con 15,894, Lab 11,671, Lib Dem 7,612, Reform 2,063, Green 663, Plaid 16,119
Where do these numbers come from? |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 9, 2021 8:31:51 GMT
Does anyone have the separate electorate figures for the communities of Pontprennau and Old St Mellon's? If Old St Mellon's is at least 2541, I think I've found a solution I really like.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2021 8:33:00 GMT
Rock solid (swing of 10% or more to change hands)Conservative WINS: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (30% majority)Labour WINS: Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (29% majority), Cardiff Central (38% majority), Cardiff South and Penarth (22% majority), Cardiff West (23% majority), Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare (31% majority), Pontypridd (20% majority), Rhondda (32% majority)Plaid WINS: Dwyfor Meirionnydd (21% majority)Liable to change hands (swing of between 5% and 10% to change hands)Conservative WINS: Brecon and Radnorshire (19% majority), Carmarthen (12% majority), Clwyd (11% majority), Mid and South Pembrokeshire (15% majority), Monmouthshire (16% majority), Labour WINS: Aberafan Porthcawl (17% majority), Bridgend (12% majority), Cardiff North (13% majority), Islwyn (16% majority), Swansea Central and North (20% majority), Swansea East and Neath (19% majority), Swansea West and Gower (10% majority)Plaid WINS: Battlegrounds (swing of between 1% and 5% to change hands)Conservative WINS: Aberconwy (2.15% majority), Delyn (4.36% majority), Vale of Glamorgan (6.50% majority), Wrexham (5.35% majority), Ynys Môn (5.38% majority)Labour WINS: Llanelli (7.79% majority), Newport East (4.07% majority), Newport West and Carephilly (9.57% majority), Torfaen (5.93% majority), Plaid WINS: Too close to calls
Alyn and Deeside: Con 21,431, Lab 21,434, Lib Dem 2,950, Reform 3,035, Plaid 1,806
Ceredigion Preseli: Con 15,894, Lab 11,671, Lib Dem 7,612, Reform 2,063, Green 663, Plaid 16,119
Where do these numbers come from? Thin air? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 9, 2021 8:55:45 GMT
On the assumption that Powys-either-side-of-the-Berwyns will once again be impossible to dislodge... what are the worst howlers of the commission's map for the NE Wales and the North Coast and what howlers can be fixed without jettisoning the basic plan?
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 9, 2021 9:46:09 GMT
Where do these numbers come from? Thin air? Would be useful to know which party is in second place in each seat on these figures. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 9, 2021 10:41:42 GMT
No. The area removed from the constituency in 1983 was Penderyn and Cefn-coed-y-cymmer, added to Cynon Valley and Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney respectively. How far back does your memory of parliamentary by-elections go? Were you properly aware of B&R in 1985? (My first one was Bermondsey 1983). Brighouse and Spenborough 1960 |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 9, 2021 10:43:04 GMT
Rock solid (swing of 10% or more to change hands)Conservative WINS: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (30% majority)Labour WINS: Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (29% majority), Cardiff Central (38% majority), Cardiff South and Penarth (22% majority), Cardiff West (23% majority), Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare (31% majority), Pontypridd (20% majority), Rhondda (32% majority)Plaid WINS: Dwyfor Meirionnydd (21% majority)Liable to change hands (swing of between 5% and 10% to change hands)Conservative WINS: Brecon and Radnorshire (19% majority), Carmarthen (12% majority), Clwyd (11% majority), Mid and South Pembrokeshire (15% majority), Monmouthshire (16% majority), Labour WINS: Aberafan Porthcawl (17% majority), Bridgend (12% majority), Cardiff North (13% majority), Islwyn (16% majority), Swansea Central and North (20% majority), Swansea East and Neath (19% majority), Swansea West and Gower (10% majority)Plaid WINS: Battlegrounds (swing of between 1% and 5% to change hands)Conservative WINS: Aberconwy (2.15% majority), Delyn (4.36% majority), Vale of Glamorgan (6.50% majority), Wrexham (5.35% majority), Ynys Môn (5.38% majority)Labour WINS: Llanelli (7.79% majority), Newport East (4.07% majority), Newport West and Carephilly (9.57% majority), Torfaen (5.93% majority), Plaid WINS: Too close to calls
Alyn and Deeside: Con 21,431, Lab 21,434, Lib Dem 2,950, Reform 3,035, Plaid 1,806
Ceredigion Preseli: Con 15,894, Lab 11,671, Lib Dem 7,612, Reform 2,063, Green 663, Plaid 16,119
Where do these numbers come from? Similarity index (same method as has been used for notional calculations since 1979) calculated by myself |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2021 10:49:54 GMT
Where do these numbers come from? Similarity index (same method as has been used for notional calculations since 1979) calculated by myself Oh right.. what @europeanlefty said then basically |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2021 10:55:34 GMT
Where do these numbers come from? Similarity index (same method as has been used for notional calculations since 1979) calculated by myself What does that even mean? |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 9, 2021 11:00:33 GMT
On the assumption that Powys-either-side-of-the-Berwyns will once again be impossible to dislodge... what are the worst howlers of the commission's map for the NE Wales and the North Coast and what howlers can be fixed without jettisoning the basic plan? Perhaps something like this:  1. Caernarfon a Meirionnydd (69,803). As per BCW but with Caernarfon included in the name and without Pentir ward. 2. Aberconwy (72138). Gains Pentir, Llansannan; loses Mochdre. I think Rhos on Sea has to stay here for the numbers to work. The "Aber" bit of the name seems rather pointless but if that's what the locals think it should be... 3. Colwyn Bay (75568). Compared with the BCW's "Clwyd" loses inland Denbighshire and gains Prestatyn. This avoids the weird boundary near Ruthin in the initial proposals. 4. Flint & Denbigh (76,816). Compared with the BCW's "Delyn", loses Prestatyn and gains more of the Vale of Clwyd. I am aware there is a range of hills dividing this in two, but there are connections, and the BCW's version already crosses those hills. 5. Alyn & Deeside (75,409). I included Llay and Rossett here rather than wards further west, because they look better connected to the bulk of the constituency. 6. Wrexham (74,331). Includes Minera and Brymbo. 7. Montgomery & Llangollen (72,363). As per BCW but I think this is a better name. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 9, 2021 11:56:53 GMT
Similarity index (same method as has been used for notional calculations since 1979) calculated by myself What does that even mean? I think it essentially means that each existing constituency is treated as if it were homogeneous and the notional results for the new constituencies are just based on the proportion of each old constituency they contain. So it will often be in the right ballpark but will be less accurate when that assumption that an existing constituency is homogeneous is quite far from the truth. E.g. I suspect Ceredigion Preseli is rather better for Plaid than shown, because the bit coming in from Preseli Pembrokeshire is all north of the Landsker line and as such likely to be better for them than Preseli Pembs as a whole. (And even more once it's in a seat that Plaid can win, but that's always an issue with notionals.) |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 9, 2021 12:12:17 GMT
Your map looks convincing. But its hidden problem is, that You too must expand B&R (or Llanelli) into Glamorgan. I'd reluctantly go along with the BCW's version of B&R, including the Swansea Valley area. There is a way out of that: moving Newtown and surroundings (about 20k people) from Merioneth and Montgomery to B&R, and compensating for that by adding Aberystwyth and its surroundings (also about 20k people) to Merioneth and Montgomery. This has its pros and cons- on the one hand it'd make nationalists less upset by the existence of a Merioneth and Montgomery seat given Plaid would now be a bit advantaged in it (though it'd still be competitive) and it'd also avoid the awkward protrusion of B&R into the south. On the other hand the constituency would be a bit more awkwardly shaped and Newtown would be separated from the rest of Montgomeryshire. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 9, 2021 12:24:06 GMT
I'd reluctantly go along with the BCW's version of B&R, including the Swansea Valley area. There is a way out of that: moving Newtown and surroundings (about 20k people) from Merioneth and Montgomery to B&R, and compensating for that by adding Aberystwyth and its surroundings (also about 20k people) to Merioneth and Montgomery. This has its pros and cons- on the one hand it'd make nationalists less upset by the existence of a Merioneth and Montgomery seat given Plaid would now be a bit advantaged in it (though it'd still be competitive) and it'd also avoid the awkward protrusion of B&R into the south. On the other hand the constituency would be a bit more awkwardly shaped and Newtown would be separated from the rest of Montgomeryshire. this, btw, is what a "Plaidimander" wd look like! Ideally you want to get rid of Welshpool as well. (How are we bringing Dyfed back into range, though?) |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 9, 2021 12:45:36 GMT
Seats that could see two incumbent MPs going up against each other
Aberafan Porthcawl - Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 56% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 44%
Bridgend - Chris Elmore (Lab) 61% v Jamie Wallis (Con) 39%
Carmarthen - Jonathan Edwards (PC/Ind) 66% v Simon Hart (Con) 34%
Clwyd - David Jones (Con) 58% v James Davies (Con) 42%
Delyn - Rob Roberts (Con) 64% v James Davies (Con) 26% v David Jones (Con) 10%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Liz Saville Roberts (PC) 62% v Hywel Williams (PC) 38%
Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare - Gerald Jones (Lab) 63% v Beth Winter (Lab) 32% v Wayne David (Lab) 5%
Mid & South Pembrokeshire - Stephen Crabb (Con) 53% v Simon Hart (Con) 47%
Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - Craig Williams (Con) 67% v Simon Baynes (Con) 32%
Newport East - Jessica Morden (Lab) 60% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 40%
Newport West & Caerphilly - Wayne David (Lab) 51% v Ruth Jones (Lab) 49%
Pontypridd - Alex Davies-Jones (Lab) 60% v Beth Winter (Lab) 40%
Swansea Central & North - Carolyn Harris (Lab) 48% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 35% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 17%
Swansea East & Neath - Christina Rees (Lab) 52% v Carolyn Harris (Lab) 29% v Stephen Kinnock (Lab) 11% v Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 8%
Swansea West & Gower - Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) 58% v Geraint Davies (Lab) 41%
Wrexham - Sarah Atherton (Con) 66% v Simon Baynes (Con) 34%
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