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Post by andrewp on Mar 30, 2021 20:54:14 GMT
Going by most of these, and not being from London I'm so not sure how more or less safe successors of the Uxbridge seat will be - it seems pretty likely that Johnson's seat is to be abolished, so where would he move? If he even stands again that is. Is Ruislip the more Tory area than Uxbridge? But the MP for the very safe Ruislip North(wood) and Pinner is brand new and not too old so surely wouldn't want his career curtailed either, unless a Lords seat awaits... I was thinking that Johnson would move to RNP after the rather sudden retirement of Nick Hurd perhaps to give up his seat to Johnson but alas that wasn't the case. Possible return to Henley? The MP there isn't ancient but would be at retiring age by 2024. I don’t think Boris Johnson will be a candidate anywhere at the next general election. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 31, 2021 13:30:09 GMT
Here's an arrangement for North London that uses somewhat different borough groupings from those we've seen before:  There are five subgroupings here: 1. Islington and City of London (if you wish, Islington can go with group 2 and the City with group 4 with minimal changes, but this avoids an orphan ward) 2. Hackney, Haringey and Enfield 3. Barnet and Camden 4. Westminster, K&C, H&F and Brent 5. Harrow, Hillingdon, Ealing, Hounslow and the Twickenham bits of Richmond Seats are as follows: City of London & Islington South (75760) Islington North (73970) - unchanged Hackney South & Shoreditch (75007) - loses Hackney Central Hackney North & Stoke Newington (76370) - in addition to the usual two, loses Stamford Hill West Tottenham South & Stamford Hill (76974) - not a great boundary in the Stamford Hill area. Also includes Noel Park, which isn't ideal but I think Lordship Lane is a good enough boundary that I'm not that fussed Hornsey & Wood Green (74132) - loses Noel Park Edmonton & Tottenham North (75168) Enfield North (76824) - gains Ponders End Enfield Southgate (75002) - gains Bush Hill Park Chipping Barnet (76187) - all these Barnet seats are stolen from greenhertHendon (71496) Finchley & Golders Green (76311) Hampstead & Highgate (76228) Holborn & St Pancras (75084) City of Westminster (73759) - loses the City, gains areas east of the Edgeware Road Chelsea & Fulham (76365) - gains Courtfield and Earl's Court Kensington & Bayswater (75145) - conceivably you could swap Little Venice for Hyde Park, in which case Kensington & Paddington might work as a name? Kilburn & Maida Vale (70819) - name is a bit of a placeholder Brent Central (70608) - loses Willesden Green, Cricklewood, Tokyngton and Wembley Park, gains Queensbury and Kingsbury Brent West (76463) - successor to Brent North. Could probably call it Wembley instead? Harrow East (76478) - gains Wealdstone South Harrow West (74778) - gains Pinner South. Hatch End would be better, but numbers are tight Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner (76185) - loses Pinner South, Ickenham and Harefield, gains Ruislip Manor and South Ruislip Uxbridge (70840) - gains West Drayton, Ickenham and Harefield, pulls out of Ruislip Hayes & Southall Broadway (74955) - the first in a series of awkward cross-border seats. It would be a lot easier if there were more roads over the canal between Hayes and Southall, or if Belmore and Yeading were orientated east/west instead of north/south Ealing North (72985) - unchanged Ealing Central & Acton (74683) - unchanged Heston & Southall Green (76889) - includes Hounslow West, amongst its other deficiencies Brentford & Isleworth (76172) - loses most of its portions of Hounslow, gains Whitton Feltham & Harlington (75874) - includes two wards of Hillingdon, which I've just noticed you could swap for Cranford and Hounslow West Twickenham (75889) - loses Whitton The problems with this scheme are fairly obvious - a somewhat awkward carve-up of Westminster North and a whole lot of ugliness in the vicinity of Hounslow, Hayes and Southall. On the other hand, Hammersmith comes out of this reasonably well and a surprising number of seats see only minimal change or slight improvements. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 31, 2021 14:03:31 GMT
"The City of Westminster" seat should really be called "Westminster & Marylebone" since you have included all of what was the borough of St Marylebone in that seat.
Brent West should definitely be called Wembley.
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Post by islington on Mar 31, 2021 14:39:31 GMT
Some great stuff in this plan, especially the east-west split of Harrow and 'Brent West' (which I agree cries out to be called Wembley). I had exactly the same Barnet except that I feel Cricklewood fits better with Hendon than Finchley; the ward is so small that the numbers work either way. It's great, too, to see an Uxbridge that doesn't contain any part of Ruislip - an example of what can be done with that crucial little bit of wiggle room you get by taking the City's entitlement of 0.09 of a seat out of the mix.
On the other hand, the City won't like being linked with anywhere except Westminster (I think in its secret heart it still hasn't come to terms with not having four MPs to itself). You needn't concern yourself about pitchforks, though - what should worry you (a lot) is that it'll be the lads of the Crimson Permanent Assurance that are out to get you.
To sum up - there's a lot to like in the plan, as well as some problems that you've mostly pointed out yourself (although I don't agree that Lordship Lane is a satisfactory dividing line in Wood Gn). But I think realistically the City/Westminster link is a fixture even though there's nothing requiring it in the rules.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 31, 2021 16:16:57 GMT
To be clear, the extra leeway in Uxbridge doesn't come from excluding the City, it comes from not including Brent, Hammersmith and points east in the same group.
If you do want to keep the City in Westminster, then you can do that, implement the knock-on changes to the Enfield group and just move Hyde Park into Kensington and Little Venice into Kilburn. Which is neat enough, I just fancied trying an Islington and City seat.
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Post by evergreenadam on Mar 31, 2021 17:50:13 GMT
Here's an arrangement for North London that uses somewhat different borough groupings from those we've seen before: There are five subgroupings here: 1. Islington and City of London (if you wish, Islington can go with group 2 and the City with group 4 with minimal changes, but this avoids an orphan ward) 2. Hackney, Haringey and Enfield 3. Barnet and Camden 4. Westminster, K&C, H&F and Brent 5. Harrow, Hillingdon, Ealing, Hounslow and the Twickenham bits of Richmond Seats are as follows: City of London & Islington South (75760) Islington North (73970) - unchanged Hackney South & Shoreditch (75007) - loses Hackney Central Hackney North & Stoke Newington (76370) - in addition to the usual two, loses Stamford Hill West Tottenham South & Stamford Hill (76974) - not a great boundary in the Stamford Hill area. Also includes Noel Park, which isn't ideal but I think Lordship Lane is a good enough boundary that I'm not that fussed Hornsey & Wood Green (74132) - loses Noel Park Edmonton & Tottenham North (75168) Enfield North (76824) - gains Ponders End Enfield Southgate (75002) - gains Bush Hill Park Chipping Barnet (76187) - all these Barnet seats are stolen from greenhertHendon (71496) Finchley & Golders Green (76311) Hampstead & Highgate (76228) Holborn & St Pancras (75084) City of Westminster (73759) - loses the City, gains areas east of the Edgeware Road Chelsea & Fulham (76365) - gains Courtfield and Earl's Court Kensington & Bayswater (75145) - conceivably you could swap Little Venice for Hyde Park, in which case Kensington & Paddington might work as a name? Kilburn & Maida Vale (70819) - name is a bit of a placeholder Brent Central (70608) - loses Willesden Green, Cricklewood, Tokyngton and Wembley Park, gains Queensbury and Kingsbury Brent West (76463) - successor to Brent North. Could probably call it Wembley instead? Harrow East (76478) - gains Wealdstone South Harrow West (74778) - gains Pinner South. Hatch End would be better, but numbers are tight Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner (76185) - loses Pinner South, Ickenham and Harefield, gains Ruislip Manor and South Ruislip Uxbridge (70840) - gains West Drayton, Ickenham and Harefield, pulls out of Ruislip Hayes & Southall Broadway (74955) - the first in a series of awkward cross-border seats. It would be a lot easier if there were more roads over the canal between Hayes and Southall, or if Belmore and Yeading were orientated east/west instead of north/south Ealing North (72985) - unchanged Ealing Central & Acton (74683) - unchanged Heston & Southall Green (76889) - includes Hounslow West, amongst its other deficiencies Brentford & Isleworth (76172) - loses most of its portions of Hounslow, gains Whitton Feltham & Harlington (75874) - includes two wards of Hillingdon, which I've just noticed you could swap for Cranford and Hounslow West Twickenham (75889) - loses Whitton The problems with this scheme are fairly obvious - a somewhat awkward carve-up of Westminster North and a whole lot of ugliness in the vicinity of Hounslow, Hayes and Southall. On the other hand, Hammersmith comes out of this reasonably well and a surprising number of seats see only minimal change or slight improvements. I’m only looking at the west London seats which I know best, but in the circumstances there is a lot to commend the proposals. Much less disruption than I had feared. The Hounslow split does actually make great sense. Hounslow South is clearly delineated by the railway line from the other Hounslow wards to the north and has much in common with the unglamorous predominantly owner occupied Victorian/1930s suburbia in Isleworth, Syon and Whitton wards. Hounslow West is contiguous with Cranford and these two wards stay grouped with the three Heston wards. Hounslow East, Central and Heath are on the axis along Staines Road which connects the town centre at Hounslow with its catchment area in the outer suburbs at Bedfont and Feltham. Heath was in Feltham & Heston prior to 1997, when it was known as Hounslow West, just to confuse everyone! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 1, 2021 7:21:19 GMT
Though I like East Anglian Lefty's Wembley (Brent West) seat (it is after all the same as mine), I think the Brent Central seat is unsatisfactory due to very poor links between Harlesden/Stonebridge at one end and Kingsbury/Queensbury at the other. IN the context of this kind of arrangement, I would reconfigure those two seats on North South lines (so move Northwick Park, Preston, Kenton and Barnhill in with Kingsbury etc and Harlesden, Roundwood and Stonebridge in with the remaining Wembley wards. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 1, 2021 14:49:59 GMT
Another take on NW London, this time treating all the boroughs as a group:  Twickenham (76331) - loses Heathfield Feltham & Hounslow (74777) - gains Heathfield, loses Heston, Cranford and Hounslow West, gains all remaining Hounslow wards Brentford & Heston (76361) - swaps wards with Feltham & Hounslow, loses the Chiswick wards Hammersmith & Chiswick (74800) - compared to Hammersmith, gains the 3 Chiswick wards but loses College Park, Wendell Park, Fulham Reach and West Kensington Chelsea & Fulham (76481) - gains Fulham Reach and West Ken, loses Brompton & Hans Town Kensington & Bayswater (75980) - gains Brompton & Hans Town, Bayswater and Lancaster Gate Cities of London & Westminster (73140) - gains Regent's Park and Abbey Road Kilburn & Westminster North (72230) - successor to Westminster North, gains the 3 Brent wards currently in Hampstead & Kilburn Brent Central (72473) - loses Wembley Park and Tokyngton Ealing Central & Acton (75345) - loses Walpole, gains College Park and Wendell Park Ealing Southall (75085) - gains Walpole Ealing North (72985) - unchanged Wembley (76463) - as I had it previously Harrow East & Kingsbury (75906) - loses Kenton West and Wealdstone North, gains Queensbury and Kingsbury Harrow West (74577) - loses Rayners Lane, gains Kenton West and Wealdstone North Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner (74330) - gains Rayners Lane, loses Ickenham and Harefield Hillingdon & South Ruislip (76418) - successor to Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Loses three wards in the south west, gains Ickenham, Harefield, Charville, Yeading and Belmont Hayes & Uxbridge (75668) - loses Charville, Yeading and Belmont, gains Uxbridge, Colham and Yiewsley A lot of this works quite neatly, but Hillingdon is a bit of a mess and I can't see any obvious way to resolve that. |
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Post by kevinlarkin on Apr 1, 2021 15:07:39 GMT
Actually I think there's something wrong with the new figures for Camden. The figures for the whole borough add up, but at ward level something looks off. If you draw that Hampstead Highgate and Camden Town on the old boundaries it's in quota without Kentish Hill North. I'm not seeing where the boundary changes shift 6000 electors out. The most obvious issue is in Fortune Green. The only boundary change adds one side of a street, but it apparently loses 1500 electors. Regent's Park is unchanged, but has lost 26 electors. Can any of our more local contributors add anything on this situation? Edit: 26 was the number of attainers in Regent's Park in the January figures. Holborn & Covent Garden has also lost exactly the number of attainers, despite substantial boundary changes. Agree that some of the Camden ward numbers look implausible. I will put them up on Boundary Assistant with a caveat and raise the issue with the BCE. This is the relevant part of the reply from the BCE: Hmmm... |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Apr 1, 2021 15:10:47 GMT
Personally I favour a different way of doing western Hounslow:
Brentford and Hounslow 76665 - Brentford x2, Syon, Osterley, Heston E, Heston C, Isleworth, Hounslow x4 (C,E,S,W)
Feltham and Cranford 74473 - Feltham x2, Hanworth x2, Hounslow Heath, Cranford, Heston W, Heathfield
Some may not like the division of Heston, but I think overall it makes for two constituencies with better internal integrity. Also Heston W has strong links to Cranford, so isn't too far out on a limb.
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Post by islington on Apr 1, 2021 15:31:33 GMT
Another take on NW London, this time treating all the boroughs as a group: Twickenham (76331) - loses Heathfield Feltham & Hounslow (74777) - gains Heathfield, loses Heston, Cranford and Hounslow West, gains all remaining Hounslow wards Brentford & Heston (76361) - swaps wards with Feltham & Hounslow, loses the Chiswick wards Hammersmith & Chiswick (74800) - compared to Hammersmith, gains the 3 Chiswick wards but loses College Park, Wendell Park, Fulham Reach and West Kensington Chelsea & Fulham (76481) - gains Fulham Reach and West Ken, loses Brompton & Hans Town Kensington & Bayswater (75980) - gains Brompton & Hans Town, Bayswater and Lancaster Gate Cities of London & Westminster (73140) - gains Regent's Park and Abbey Road Kilburn & Westminster North (72230) - successor to Westminster North, gains the 3 Brent wards currently in Hampstead & Kilburn Brent Central (72473) - loses Wembley Park and Tokyngton Ealing Central & Acton (75345) - loses Walpole, gains College Park and Wendell Park Ealing Southall (75085) - gains Walpole Ealing North (72985) - unchanged Wembley (76463) - as I had it previously Harrow East & Kingsbury (75906) - loses Kenton West and Wealdstone North, gains Queensbury and Kingsbury Harrow West (74577) - loses Rayners Lane, gains Kenton West and Wealdstone North Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner (74330) - gains Rayners Lane, loses Ickenham and Harefield Hillingdon & South Ruislip (76418) - successor to Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Loses three wards in the south west, gains Ickenham, Harefield, Charville, Yeading and Belmont Hayes & Uxbridge (75668) - loses Charville, Yeading and Belmont, gains Uxbridge, Colham and Yiewsley A lot of this works quite neatly, but Hillingdon is a bit of a mess and I can't see any obvious way to resolve that. How about this - ?
Swap Harlesden into your Kilburn seat in exchange for Brondesbury Park (I'm not suggesting this is an improvement in itself but it usefully soaks up some extra electors). Then Kingsbury into Brent Central; Kenton W into Harrow E; Rayners Lane into Harrow W; Ruislip Manor into Ruislip & Pinner; then you can keep Hayes & Harlington unchanged and Uxbridge is what's left (and note your very neat Wembley seat is left untouched).
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 1, 2021 16:07:40 GMT
Another take on NW London, this time treating all the boroughs as a group: Twickenham (76331) - loses Heathfield Feltham & Hounslow (74777) - gains Heathfield, loses Heston, Cranford and Hounslow West, gains all remaining Hounslow wards Brentford & Heston (76361) - swaps wards with Feltham & Hounslow, loses the Chiswick wards Hammersmith & Chiswick (74800) - compared to Hammersmith, gains the 3 Chiswick wards but loses College Park, Wendell Park, Fulham Reach and West Kensington Chelsea & Fulham (76481) - gains Fulham Reach and West Ken, loses Brompton & Hans Town Kensington & Bayswater (75980) - gains Brompton & Hans Town, Bayswater and Lancaster Gate Cities of London & Westminster (73140) - gains Regent's Park and Abbey Road Kilburn & Westminster North (72230) - successor to Westminster North, gains the 3 Brent wards currently in Hampstead & Kilburn Brent Central (72473) - loses Wembley Park and Tokyngton Ealing Central & Acton (75345) - loses Walpole, gains College Park and Wendell Park Ealing Southall (75085) - gains Walpole Ealing North (72985) - unchanged Wembley (76463) - as I had it previously Harrow East & Kingsbury (75906) - loses Kenton West and Wealdstone North, gains Queensbury and Kingsbury Harrow West (74577) - loses Rayners Lane, gains Kenton West and Wealdstone North Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner (74330) - gains Rayners Lane, loses Ickenham and Harefield Hillingdon & South Ruislip (76418) - successor to Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Loses three wards in the south west, gains Ickenham, Harefield, Charville, Yeading and Belmont Hayes & Uxbridge (75668) - loses Charville, Yeading and Belmont, gains Uxbridge, Colham and Yiewsley A lot of this works quite neatly, but Hillingdon is a bit of a mess and I can't see any obvious way to resolve that. How about this - ? Swap Harlesden into your Kilburn seat in exchange for Brondesbury Park (I'm not suggesting this is an improvement in itself but it usefully soaks up some extra electors). Then Kingsbury into Brent Central; Kenton W into Harrow E; Rayners Lane into Harrow W; Ruislip Manor into Ruislip & Pinner; then you can keep Hayes & Harlington unchanged and Uxbridge is what's left (and note your very neat Wembley seat is left untouched).
An excellent suggestion - I don't love either the Harlesden/Brondesbury Park ward, nor Queensbury as an orphan wards, but RNP is improved by that and the other Uxbridge seats are so much better than my originals. |
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Post by islington on Apr 1, 2021 17:08:46 GMT
Here's my take on the same part of London. This approach has two groupings: Twick/Hounslow/H&F/K&C for 6 seats, and everything else with 12. It's very similar to the all-London map I posted a little while ago, although I've somewhat tidied up the Harrow S seat (still a bit messy, though).
EAL's approach allows him a more natural split of Harrow (east-west rather than north-south) and an impressively neat and compact Wembley seat (as Pete Whitehead also has) but on the other hand, his Southall seat takes a big bite out of Ealing town centre and I prefer my Paddington to his Kilburn.
I posted names and electorates earlier but it was before BA was updated and some of my manually calculated figures were wrong, so see below for the correct version.
The twelve
Cities of London and Westminster - 74901. Paddington - 74473. Willesden - 76812. The seat would be in range without the smallish Tokyngton ward, which really would sit more comfortably in the following seat. But it's included here to keep the numbers up; with an entitlement of 12.22 for this grouping, small seats are too much of luxury. Wembley - 76897. What this Wembley seat has in common with EAL's and Pete Whitehead's version is a helpfully high electorate; that aside, theirs is much neater and more compact. Greenford - 73711. As everyone else has found, an orphan ward is needed to get Ealing to work, and borrowing Roxeth from Harrow is as good a solution as any. Southall - 74554. Ealing and Acton - 74683. Unchanged. Harrow North - 76672. Harrow South - 74194. As I say, I'd really prefer an east-west split of Harrow, but at least this version is somewhat more compact than what I posted before. And, unlike most other plans, it does keep the three Kentons together. Ruislip and Pinner - 75700. I'm happy with this arrangement, a marked improvement on the current seat. This and the following two seats are exactly as I suggested to EAL. Uxbridge - 71510. Hayes and Harlington - 72897. Unchanged.
The six
Hounslow and Feltham - 75749. There's no ideal solution in this area but I still think this is the least bad. Of course Hounslow S should be included, but it's well away from the town centre with the railway line as a very visible barrier, so I think it's the most detachable ward. Twickenham - 75889. Brentford and Heston - 75831. At least the two Brentfords and three Hestons are kept together. Hammersmith and Chiswick - 75172. As are the three Chiswicks, but the main issue with this seat is that the boundary runs very tight to Hammersmith town centre. Several people have suggested instead a three-way split of H&F, retaining something like the current Chelsea & Fulham seat in the south while some northern wards go into a Kensington seat. Quite honestly, I'm tempted by this; the only thing stopping me is a hesitation about additional boundary-crossings. So at least for now, I'm leaving it as I originally had it. Fulham - 74759. Really 'greater Fulham', extending north into Hammersmith and east to include Earl's Court. Kensington and Chelsea - 74946. Basically the whole borough with the Earl's Court area omitted to get it within range.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 1, 2021 17:21:59 GMT
Here's my take on the same part of London. This approach has two groupings: Twick/Hounslow/H&F/K&C for 6 seats, and everything else with 12. It's very similar to the all-London map I posted a little while ago, although I've somewhat tidied up the Harrow S seat (still a bit messy, though).
EAL's approach allows him a more natural split of Harrow (east-west rather than north-south) and an impressively neat and compact Wembley seat (as Pete Whitehead also has) but on the other hand, his Southall seat takes a big bite out of Ealing town centre and I prefer my Paddington to his Kilburn. I posted names and electorates earlier but it was before BA was updated and some of my manually calculated figures were wrong, so see below for the correct version.
The twelve
Cities of London and Westminster - 74901. Paddington - 74473. Willesden - 76812. The seat would be in range without the smallish Tokyngton ward, which really would sit more comfortably in the following seat. But it's included here to keep the numbers up; with an entitlement of 12.22 for this grouping, small seats are too much of luxury. Wembley - 76897. What this Wembley seat has in common with EAL's and Pete Whitehead's version is a helpfully high electorate; that aside, theirs is much neater and more compact. Greenford - 73711. As everyone else has found, an orphan ward is needed to get Ealing to work, and borrowing Roxeth from Harrow is as good a solution as any. Southall - 74554. Ealing and Acton - 74683. Unchanged. Harrow North - 76672. Harrow South - 74194. As I say, I'd really prefer an east-west split of Harrow, but at least this version is somewhat more compact than what I posted before. And, unlike most other plans, it does keep the three Kentons together. Ruislip and Pinner - 75700. I'm happy with this arrangement, a marked improvement on the current seat. This and the following two seats are exactly as I suggested to EAL. Uxbridge - 71510. Hayes and Harlington - 72897. Unchanged. The six
Hounslow and Feltham - 75749. There's no ideal solution in this area but I still think this is the least bad. Of course Hounslow S should be included, but it's well away from the town centre with the railway line as a very visible barrier, so I think it's the most detachable ward. Twickenham - 75889. Brentford and Heston - 75831. At least the two Brentfords and three Hestons are kept together. Hammersmith and Chiswick - 75172. As are the three Chiswicks, but the main issue with this seat is that the boundary runs very tight to Hammersmith town centre. Several people have suggested instead a three-way split of H&F, retaining something like the current Chelsea & Fulham seat in the south while some northern wards go into a Kensington seat. Quite honestly, I'm tempted by this; the only thing stopping me is a hesitation about additional boundary-crossings. So at least for now, I'm leaving it as I originally had it. Fulham - 74759. Really 'greater Fulham', extending north into Hammersmith and east to include Earl's Court. Kensington and Chelsea - 74946. Basically the whole borough with the Earl's Court area omitted to get it within range.
I would certainly regard that scheme as livewithable (an excellent term I think was coined by Adrian and which should become part of the English language) I think the Ealing seats are fine but might be improved a bit by rotating the three wards as shown below (but its much of a muchness) but that the Harrow seats would be greatly improved by this  |
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Post by kevinlarkin on Apr 1, 2021 19:30:56 GMT
I would certainly regard that scheme as livewithable (an excellent term I think was coined by Adrian and which should become part of the English language) I think the Ealing seats are fine but might be improved a bit by rotating the three wards as shown below (but its much of a muchness) but that the Harrow seats would be greatly improved by this I completely disagree on the Ealing wards. Lady Margaret is still more Southall than Greenford, even after the boundary change, Pitshanger is currently in Ealing North and even though it belongs in an Ealing Central seat it should stay with North and Walpole (which contains Ealing landmarks such as Ealing Studios and Pitzhanger Manor) should stay with Central based on the minimum change rule. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 1, 2021 20:03:45 GMT
I would certainly regard that scheme as livewithable (an excellent term I think was coined by Adrian and which should become part of the English language) I think the Ealing seats are fine but might be improved a bit by rotating the three wards as shown below (but its much of a muchness) but that the Harrow seats would be greatly improved by this I completely disagree on the Ealing wards. Lady Margaret is still more Southall than Greenford, even after the boundary change, Pitshanger is currently in Ealing North and even though it belongs in an Ealing Central seat it should stay with North and Walpole (which contains Ealing landmarks such as Ealing Studios and Pitzhanger Manor) should stay with Central based on the minimum change rule. Agreed. |
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 4, 2021 12:01:09 GMT
North London is a real bugger, because you are a seat short (46.71 quotas for 46 seats), requiring a high average which is difficult to achieve in many boroughs because of ward sizes.
NE London plus Tower Hamlets works nicely for 14 seats, Haringey/Enfield/Barnet for 8 seats, but although Hackney/Camden/Islington theoretically works for 6 seats, in practice it doesn't. And with a spare ward from Camden I can't fit in 18 seats at an average of over 75,000 from north-west London. Adding a Hackney ward to Tower Hamlets ought to solve the problem but doesn't work.
So (a) Havering loses a Hornchurch ward to Dagenham
(b) In order to get the numbers up I have to move a Barking ward into Redbridge (Mayfield) while linking the 3 Chadwell Heath wards with east Ilford. Since the numbers don't work I have frustratingly to link Wanstead with Ilford South, and the Woodford seat can then take 2 Chingford wards rather than 1. This means the rest of Waltham Forest works for 2 seats.
(c) Newham has to lose quite a bit of territory and the old Stratford ward is super large. Again in order to keep numbers high I have had to cross the Lea twice, linking Stratford with Bow, and Canning Town with Poplar. As noted above, there's no Hackney ward small enough to add to Bethnal Green, so I have been forced to do a swap, adding the City of London to Bethnal Green (which makes perfectly good sense), and donating an orphan Camden ward to Brent (Kilburn) in exchange.
(d) Brent/Westminster/K&C/H&F work nicely for 7 seats (including the orphan Camden ward). The south Brent/north Westminster seat + Kilburn is messy, but the rest is OK. 4 wards of Westminster join Kensington, and once you've topped up Chelsea & Fulham with the left over Kensington wards, Hammersmith can remain unchanged.
(e) That leaves the 4 north-west boroughs + Twickenham to make 11 seats at an average of just over 75,000 which I have managed to achieve but isn't pretty. Harrow is fine for 2 seats, but you have to split Pinner. The 2 surplus Harrow wards go with Northwood & Ruislip. I have a weird Uxbridge seat including Harefield Village and the 2 Northolt wards from Ealing. This means the rest of Hillingdon fits into an adjusted Hayes & Harlington.
(f) Twickenham has to lose a ward (Heathfield looks best). This goes into a Feltham & Hounslow seat, which unfortunately has to exclude Hounslow South. This goes into the Brentford seat, which unfortunately requires Heston to be split. Can't find anything better given the requirement for large seats.
(g) The rest of Heston joins Southall. The Ealing C & Acton seat stays much the same. The rest of Ealing then works nicely for something not too dissimilar to the present Ealing North seat.
I will be very interested to see how others have managed to solve this difficult puzzle which I've been working on for a week on and off.
My first two tries at south London were a hopeless mess, so I need to go back and try again. Only when I have a solution here will I start looking at others proposals.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Apr 4, 2021 12:58:47 GMT
Here's another go at Western Middlesex – tried to do mimimum change and avoid crossing the Ealing/Harrow and Hillingdon/Hounslow boundaries – the result is ten reasonably nice constituencies and one complete shocker:  1 Harrow East 76478 Yes 2 Harrow West 74778 Yes 3 Ruislip, Northwood, and Pinner 76185 Yes 4 Uxbridge 70840 Yes 5 Hayes and Harlington 74834 Yes 6 Ealing North 74069 Yes 7 Ealing West and Heston 76051 Yes 8 Ealing East 74683 Yes 9 Brentford and Isleworth 76172 Yes 10 Feltham 75749 Yes 11 Twickenham 75889 Yes |
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Post by islington on Apr 4, 2021 13:31:41 GMT
That's not bad. Assuming that, along with others (including me) you go along with 14 seats for metropolitan Essex + TH, 9 for Enfield/Haringey/Hackney/Islington, and 5 for Camden/Barnet, that leaves 7 seats for City/Wminster/K&C/H&F/Brent with a collective entitlement of 7.13. It ought to be feasible.
As a thought on your map, if you're looking for three Hounslow wards to treat with Ealing, might the Chiswicks work better than the Hestons?
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Post by islington on Apr 4, 2021 13:55:05 GMT
North London is a real bugger, because you are a seat short (46.71 quotas for 46 seats), requiring a high average which is difficult to achieve in many boroughs because of ward sizes. NE London plus Tower Hamlets works nicely for 14 seats, Haringey/Enfield/Barnet for 8 seats, but although Hackney/Camden/Islington theoretically works for 6 seats, in practice it doesn't. And with a spare ward from Camden I can't fit in 18 seats at an average of over 75,000 from north-west London. Adding a Hackney ward to Tower Hamlets ought to solve the problem but doesn't work. So (a) Havering loses a Hornchurch ward to Dagenham (b) In order to get the numbers up I have to move a Barking ward into Redbridge (Mayfield) while linking the 3 Chadwell Heath wards with east Ilford. Since the numbers don't work I have frustratingly to link Wanstead with Ilford South, and the Woodford seat can then take 2 Chingford wards rather than 1. This means the rest of Waltham Forest works for 2 seats. (c) Newham has to lose quite a bit of territory and the old Stratford ward is super large. Again in order to keep numbers high I have had to cross the Lea twice, linking Stratford with Bow, and Canning Town with Poplar. As noted above, there's no Hackney ward small enough to add to Bethnal Green, so I have been forced to do a swap, adding the City of London to Bethnal Green (which makes perfectly good sense), and donating an orphan Camden ward to Brent (Kilburn) in exchange. (d) Brent/Westminster/K&C/H&F work nicely for 7 seats (including the orphan Camden ward). The south Brent/north Westminster seat + Kilburn is messy, but the rest is OK. 4 wards of Westminster join Kensington, and once you've topped up Chelsea & Fulham with the left over Kensington wards, Hammersmith can remain unchanged. (e) That leaves the 4 north-west boroughs + Twickenham to make 11 seats at an average of just over 75,000 which I have managed to achieve but isn't pretty. Harrow is fine for 2 seats, but you have to split Pinner. The 2 surplus Harrow wards go with Northwood & Ruislip. I have a weird Uxbridge seat including Harefield Village and the 2 Northolt wards from Ealing. This means the rest of Hillingdon fits into an adjusted Hayes & Harlington. (f) Twickenham has to lose a ward (Heathfield looks best). This goes into a Feltham & Hounslow seat, which unfortunately has to exclude Hounslow South. This goes into the Brentford seat, which unfortunately requires Heston to be split. Can't find anything better given the requirement for large seats. (g) The rest of Heston joins Southall. The Ealing C & Acton seat stays much the same. The rest of Ealing then works nicely for something not too dissimilar to the present Ealing North seat. I will be very interested to see how others have managed to solve this difficult puzzle which I've been working on for a week on and off. My first two tries at south London were a hopeless mess, so I need to go back and try again. Only when I have a solution here will I start looking at others proposals. John - you're quite right, north London is a real headache for exactly the reason you state. Essentially there's an excess of 0.71 of a seat that needs to be accommodated somehow, or 0.66 after metro Essex + TH (entitlement 14.05) has received 14 seats. In my view the only way is to spread it as thinly as you can over the widest possible area. This is a real shame because it means some otherwise attractive combinations are ruled out purely on the numbers, for instance Barnet/Enfield = 4.90, City/Wminster/K&C = 2.88, Harrow/Hillingdon = 4.91. If you're looking for a less drastic solution to the problem, one that allows you to maintain 14 seats for metro Essex + TH, (I'll pause to allow you to look away now if you want to tinker further on your own first) -
- - - - - - - Take up the idea advanced by greenhert and ditch Barnet from your northern grouping, pairing it with Camden instead (entitlement 5.11 = 5), and put the other two boroughs in with Hackney and Islington for an entitlement of 9.17 = 9. This means you've used up 0.28 of a seat in the central north London area; north west London with 18.38 then has to accommodate the rest and a number of us have posted ways of doing that, although I'm sure you'll want to work out your own version as well. |
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