2023 Review

[minionofmidas]

Jun 14, 2021 18:48:35 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jun 13, 2021 19:17:21 GMT John Chanin said:

The Commission seems to have gone generally for the several good seats plus one disastrous bits left over, rather than many suboptimal seats. Always an interesting choice. Disasters here include Stone & Great Wyrley, West Pennine Moors, Wetherby & Easingwold, “City of Durham”, Fallsworth & Droylsden, and of course the continuing Central Devon.

In London they have done the opposite, and avoided any dreadful seats at the cost of large numbers of suboptimal ones.

Out of curiosity, what's your problem with "City of Durham"?

It's not quite as cohesive a constituency as the old one, but Houghton and Durham have good links. Historically, Houghton-le-Spring has always been out on a limb in Tyne and Wear, with better connections to areas further south in the Durham coalfield, and nowadays there are increasing numbers of commuters between the two. In an ideal world Durham would keep its western and southern villages but if these have to be moved to bulk up the two west Durham seats, then a solution like what they've proposed is perfectly fine.

It's a solution in search of a problem, and it finds several problems - to cause, not to solve. The resulting boundaries both in Sunderland and in W Durham are a crazy mess.
It must have looked nice to a commissioner.
It's also misnamed o/c.

[michael2019]

Jun 14, 2021 18:51:35 GMT minionofmidas said:

I've long known where Three Rivers is (Watford Outer, including Arthur Dent's home in Rickmansworth) but I just noticed I have never bothered to find out what three rivers the name actually refers to, not that it is the only district whose name is obscure to me (Hambleton? Wychavon? South Hams? Uttlesford? Elmbridge? Tandridge? Hillingdon? for a selection of the worst surviving offenders) I certainly don't associate the area with any rivers.

www.threerivers.gov.uk/egcl-page/about-us - "...three small local rivers, the Chess, Gade and Colne giving the District its name."  

[Khunanup]

Jun 14, 2021 18:40:09 GMT Adrian said:

Jun 13, 2021 7:07:17 GMT YL said:

We're not all going to agree on names, are we...

I don't think obscure 1970s district names are a good basis for constituency names, and "Three Rivers" is particularly bad: it could be anywhere. At least I know which river "Erewash" refers to and that tells me roughly where the constituency is.

"Three Rivers" is a 2021 district name, and not obscure if you live in Herts or Bucks. The fact that it's not to your taste is irrelevant. 95% of the UK population couldn't tell you where Harpenden or Berkhamsted is, so this ongoing argument about salience is pretty pointless.

Quite. The seat name should identify it for the people who live there, not for the benefit of some politico who lives at the other end of the country who can't be bothered to do a bit of research.

[greenhert]

Jun 14, 2021 18:51:35 GMT minionofmidas said:

I've long known where Three Rivers is (Watford Outer, including Arthur Dent's home in Rickmansworth) but I just noticed I have never bothered to find out what three rivers the name actually refers to, not that it is the only district whose name is obscure to me (Hambleton? Wychavon? South Hams? Uttlesford? Elmbridge? Tandridge? Hillingdon? for a selection of the worst surviving offenders) I certainly don't associate the area with any rivers.

The other key reason that SW Hertfordshire should not be renamed as Three Rivers is because it contains a ward in the Dacorum district-Kings Langley. Also, the redrawing makes the name South West Hertfordshire more accurate.

[Harry Hayfield]

New notional calculations by Britain Elects (behind New Stateman's paywall, so tough luck if you have read four articles this month already)

I have asked whether the spreadsheet will be open data next week

[hullenedge]

Flippers listed as:-

Con to Lab - Kensington & Westbourne, Bolton NE, Whitley Bay & Cramlington, Dewsbury, West Bromwich E, Bury S.
Con to LD - Finchley & Muswell Hill, Wimbledon, Esher & Walton.
Lab to Con - Eltham & Chislehurst, Wolverhamton SE, Lancaster, Halifax, Leeds NW, Walsall, Hull E, Hull W & Hessle.

[hullenedge]

According to Britain Elects the new Ossett & Denby Dale has a notional Tory majority of 11.9%, which is pretty near to the 2019 national lead.

Halifax 0.4% Con lead, Calder Valley 2% Con lead, Batley & Hipperholme 2.5% Lab lead. These revised notionals have a better 'feel'.

[michael2019]

If I have done things correctly (and apologies if I haven't!) - these are the top 25 most marginal Tory constituencies in England on the proposed new boundaries according to the New Statesman calculations

Rank	Seat	Second	Maj	Con	Lab	LD	Brex	Grn
1	Kingston upon Hull East	Lab	0.1%	37.7%	37.6%	5.9%	15.0%	2.1%
2	Halifax	Lab	0.4%	44.9%	44.5%	2.8%	4.4%	2.4%
3	Wolverhampton South East	Lab	0.5%	45.5%	45.0%	2.9%	4.8%	1.1%
4	Hendon and Golders Green	Lab	0.9%	44.0%	43.1%	11.6%	0.2%	1.0%
5	Wolverhampton West	Lab	1.0%	46.3%	45.3%	5.1%	3.0%	0.2%
6	High Peak	Lab	1.1%	45.9%	44.8%	5.1%	2.1%	2.1%
7	Heywood	Lab	1.2%	42.0%	40.8%	6.1%	8.2%	2.8%
8	Carshalton and Wallington	LD	1.3%	42.4%	12.4%	41.1%	2.0%	1.5%
9	Eltham and Chislehurst	Lab	1.3%	43.5%	42.2%	8.1%	2.5%	3.1%
10	Bury North	Lab	1.3%	46.7%	45.4%	3.4%	2.6%	1.5%
11	Beckenham	Lab	1.6%	40.1%	38.5%	15.4%	0.8%	5.1%
12	Calder Valley	Lab	2.0%	46.4%	44.4%	7.6%	1.4%	0.2%
13	South Cambridgeshire	LD	2.1%	44.2%	13.5%	42.1%		0.1%
14	Warrington South	Lab	2.2%	45.4%	43.2%	7.3%	2.8%	1.1%
15	Cheltenham	LD	2.2%	48.3%	4.9%	46.1%
16	Chingford and Woodford Green	Lab	2.2%	48.5%	46.3%	4.8%	0.1%	0.2%
17	North West Durham	Lab	2.8%	41.8%	39.0%	6.6%	6.6%	2.3%
18	Gedling	Lab	3.1%	46.4%	43.3%	4.6%	3.3%	2.2%
19	Burnley and Bacup	Lab	3.2%	42.4%	39.2%	6.8%	6.1%	0.9%
20	Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle	Lab	3.7%	41.3%	37.6%	4.0%	13.4%	0.6%
21	Leigh South and Atherton	Lab	3.7%	44.9%	41.2%	5.0%	6.6%	0.3%
22	Birmingham Northfield	Lab	3.8%	46.3%	42.5%	4.6%	3.7%	2.2%
23	High Barnet and Mill Hill	Lab	3.9%	45.3%	41.4%	11.4%		1.8%
24	Cheadle	LD	4.2%	46.0%	12.3%	41.8%
25	Keighley	Lab	4.2%	48.1%	43.9%	4.9%	1.5%

[michael2019]

26-50 Conservative most marginal seats

Rank	Seat	Second	Maj	Con	Lab	LD	Brex	Grn
25	Keighley	Lab	4.2%	48.1%	43.9%	4.9%	1.5%
26	Leeds North West	Lab	4.6%	43.2%	38.6%	13.6%	1.2%	2.1%
27	Redcar and Eston	Lab	4.7%	44.2%	39.5%	4.6%	5.8%	0.6%
28	Derby North	Lab	5.4%	45.2%	39.8%	7.3%	4.0%	2.2%
29	Peterborough	Lab	5.4%	46.7%	41.3%	4.9%	4.3%	1.5%
30	Lancaster	Lab	5.6%	46.8%	41.2%	5.3%	2.4%	3.4%
31	Stroud	Lab	5.6%	47.4%	41.8%	1.9%	1.5%	6.4%
32	Wakefield	Lab	6.0%	44.6%	38.6%	8.0%	2.9%	1.0%
33	Eastbourne	LD	6.4%	48.4%	6.6%	42.0%	2.7%	0.1%
34	High Wycombe	Lab	6.6%	44.6%	38.0%	12.2%		2.7%
35	Lincoln	Lab	6.7%	47.7%	41.0%	4.9%	2.0%	2.4%
36	Hastings and Rye	Lab	7.2%	49.4%	42.2%	7.3%		0.2%
37	Norwich North	Lab	7.5%	48.4%	40.9%	5.4%	0.2%	4.2%
38	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Lab	7.8%	48.8%	41.0%	3.6%	3.9%	2.1%
39	Truro and Falmouth	Lab	7.8%	46.2%	38.4%	12.1%		2.7%
40	Newton Aycliffe and Sedgefield	Lab	8.0%	45.8%	37.8%	5.5%	7.9%	2.3%
41	Westminster and Chelsea	LD	8.5%	38.4%	29.5%	29.9%	0.1%	1.6%
42	Darlington	Lab	8.6%	48.6%	40.0%	4.7%	3.7%	2.4%
43	Watford	Lab	8.8%	46.2%	37.4%	15.6%		0.1%
44	Broxtowe	Lab	9.4%	46.6%	37.2%	0.6%	1.4%	2.4%
45	Southampton Itchen	Lab	9.5%	50.8%	41.3%	5.3%		2.2%
46	Lewes	LD	9.6%	49.2%	7.9%	39.6%	0.2%	2.2%
47	Walsall	Lab	9.7%	49.3%	39.6%	5.0%	2.7%	2.1%
48	Hazel Grove	LD	10.1%	46.3%	16.5%	36.2%	0.6%	0.3%
49	Colne Valley	Lab	10.2%	48.9%	38.7%	7.1%	2.0%	1.7%
50	Winchester	LD	10.2%	51.8%	4.9%	41.6%		1.3%

[michael2019]

51-75:

Rank	Seat	Second	Maj	Con	Lab	LD	Brex	Grn
51	West Bromwich West	Lab	10.3%	50.1%	39.8%	2.6%	5.4%	1.9%
52	Guildford	LD	10.5%	46.3%	8.6%	35.8%		0.6%
53	Newport Pagnell	Lab	10.5%	50.0%	39.5%	7.5%		2.9%
54	Croydon South	Lab	10.6%	47.6%	37.0%	11.5%	0.3%	3.1%
55	Milton Keynes	Lab	10.8%	48.4%	37.6%	10.9%		2.2%
56	Swindon South	Lab	10.9%	51.7%	40.8%	7.4%		0.1%
57	St Ives	LD	11.0%	50.1%	8.1%	39.1%		1.5%
58	Ipswich	Lab	11.0%	50.3%	39.3%	4.9%	2.8%	2.6%
59	Altrincham and Sale West	Lab	11.2%	48.0%	36.8%	11.0%	0.0%	2.9%
60	Blackpool South	Lab	11.2%	49.9%	38.7%	4.1%	4.5%	0.9%
61	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Lab	11.2%	49.3%	38.1%	9.4%		2.8%
62	Hyndburn	Lab	11.3%	50.5%	39.2%	3.3%	4.2%	2.2%
63	Shipley	Lab	11.6%	50.8%	39.2%	5.9%		2.4%
64	Ossett and Denby Dale	Lab	11.9%	48.0%	36.1%	4.3%	6.3%	2.7%
65	Bolsover	Lab	12.0%	47.7%	35.7%	3.7%	8.9%	1.7%
66	Northampton South	Lab	12.0%	50.9%	38.9%	7.0%		3.0%
67	Pendle	Lab	12.7%	52.7%	40.0%	4.0%	1.1%	1.9%
68	Rushcliffe	Lab	12.8%	48.0%	35.2%	16.0%
69	Workington	Lab	12.9%	49.1%	36.2%	6.6%	3.1%	2.8%
70	Loughborough	Lab	13.1%	51.3%	38.2%	7.6%		2.2%
71	Southport	Lab	13.3%	51.8%	38.5%	9.0%		0.4%
72	Worcester	Lab	13.3%	50.8%	37.5%	7.2%		3.3%
73	Rother Valley	Lab	13.4%	45.1%	31.7%	5.4%	12.8%	2.7%
74	Morley	Lab	13.5%	51.8%	38.3%	4.8%	1.4%	2.4%
75	Stockton West	Lab	13.8%	51.5%	37.7%	4.4%	5.1%	1.2%

[michael2019]

And 76-100:

Rank	Seat	Second	Maj	Con	Lab	LD	Brex	Grn
76	Crewe and Nantwich	Lab	14.0%	52.0%	38.0%	5.0%	2.5%	2.1%
77	Godalming and Ash	LD	14.2%	52.6%	6.3%	38.4%		1.2%
78	Colchester	Lab	14.4%	48.5%	34.1%	14.4%		2.9%
79	Ashfield	Lab	14.5%	39.7%	25.2%	1.9%	4.5%	1.1%
80	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Lab	14.5%	47.8%	33.3%	10.2%	8.6%
81	West Pennine Moors	Lab	14.6%	50.7%	36.1%	3.9%	0.6%	3.5%
82	Bishop Auckland	Lab	14.9%	51.4%	36.5%	4.4%	5.7%	1.9%
83	Corby and East Northamptonshire	Lab	15.4%	54.4%	39.0%	6.6%
84	Harrogate & Knaresborough	LD	15.7%	52.0%	9.8%	36.3%
85	Fulham and Chelsea West	Lab	15.8%	44.6%	28.8%	24.6%	0.4%	0.7%
86	Barrow and Furness	Lab	15.8%	50.7%	34.9%	10.1%	2.7%	1.5%
87	Camborne and Redruth	Lab	16.1%	52.0%	35.9%	7.4%		3.4%
88	Uxbridge and South Ruislip	Lab	16.3%	52.9%	36.6%	7.1%		2.2%
89	Northampton North	Lab	16.4%	54.9%	38.5%	4.6%		2.0%
90	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Lab	16.5%	52.4%	35.9%	5.3%	4.2%	2.1%
91	Sutton and Cheam	LD	16.6%	50.0%	14.3%	33.4%		2.3%
92	Crawley	Lab	16.8%	54.2%	37.4%	5.5%		2.9%
93	Stoke-on-Trent North	Lab	17.0%	53.0%	36.0%	3.3%	5.4%	1.3%
94	Bolton West	Lab	17.1%	54.1%	37.0%	4.8%	0.9%	3.1%
95	Stanmore and Edgware	Lab	17.2%	54.2%	37.0%	7.8%		1.0%
96	Wolverhampton North East	Lab	17.3%	53.5%	36.2%	5.4%	2.9%	1.3%
97	Shrewsbury	Lab	17.3%	51.2%	33.9%	10.5%		3.4%
98	Woking	LD	17.5%	48.6%	16.5%	31.1%		2.7%
99	Taunton	LD	17.6%	53.5%	7.4%	35.9%
100	Northwich	Lab	17.8%	50.7%	32.9%	12.7%	0.9%	2.6%

[evergreenadam]

Jun 15, 2021 19:38:59 GMT hullenedge said:

Flippers listed as:-

Con to Lab - Kensington & Westbourne, Bolton NE, Whitley Bay & Cramlington, Dewsbury, West Bromwich E, Bury S.
Con to LD - Finchley & Muswell Hill, Wimbledon, Esher & Walton.
Lab to Con - Eltham & Chislehurst, Wolverhamton SE, Lancaster, Halifax, Leeds NW, Walsall, Hull E, Hull W & Hessle.

Quite a lot of eliminations from the previous list of flippers including some of those highlighted as suspect on this forum:
Peterborough
Wakefield
Sheffield Hallam
South Cambridgeshire
Hendon & Golders Green

Whitley Bay and Cramlington appears to refer to Blyth Valley flipping.

[evergreenadam]

Jun 15, 2021 19:08:40 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

New notional calculations by Britain Elects (behind New Stateman's paywall, so tough luck if you have read four articles this month already)

I have asked whether the spreadsheet will be open data next week

How do they work out the Lib Dems would have a net gain of one if three seats flip to them and Westmorland and Lonsdale disappears?

[pepperminttea]

Some of these look wrong. I'm not sure how on earth they got that Croydon East was Labour by 9.1% for example. Sarah Jones only won by 11% and the seat has lost the solidly Labour Fairfield (Central Croydon) and the extremely Labour Woodside whilst gaining very Tory areas around Selsdon. I think it's quite possible she would've failed to win at all on these boundaries let alone win by that much!

Edit: Labour lost the list vote here in may by just shy 5,000 votes when reallocating postals (Khan did even worse but his performance didn't corollate to general election like the list vote generally did). I'm actually pretty confident that Croydon East on these boundaries would be a Tory seat. 

[michael2019]

52 most marginal Labour seats:
(apols as newbie if is too large a table in one post)

Rank	Seat	Second	Maj	Con	Lab	LD	Brex	Grn
1	Bolton North East	Con	0.1%	44.4%	44.5%	4.1%	4.6%	1.7%
2	Coventry North West	Con	0.4%	43.4%	43.8%	5.7%	4.0%	3.0%
3	Bury South	Con	1.1%	42.2%	43.3%	5.6%	3.6%	2.2%
4	Sheffield Hallam	LD	1.2%	25.8%	34.6%	33.4%	2.6%	2.9%
5	West Bromwich East	Con	2.0%	43.5%	45.5%	3.7%	4.3%	1.7%
6	Doncaster Town	Con	2.4%	36.2%	38.6%	4.5%	16.0%	2.3%
7	Pontefract and Castleford	Con	2.4%	35.3%	37.7%	6.9%	16.5%
8	Batley and Hipperholme	Con	2.5%	38.8%	41.3%	4.6%	2.5%	1.1%
9	Warwick and Leamington	Con	2.7%	41.5%	44.2%	9.9%	1.4%	2.7%
10	Pudsey	Con	2.8%	42.1%	44.9%	4.5%	3.2%	2.7%
11	Dewsbury	Con	3.1%	42.8%	45.9%	4.9%	3.3%	2.0%
12	Chesterfield	Con	3.2%	37.0%	40.2%	8.8%	10.5%	2.5%
13	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Con	3.2%	40.9%	44.1%	5.3%	6.4%	1.7%
14	Dagenham and Rainham	Con	3.3%	42.5%	45.8%	2.7%	6.6%	1.4%
15	Canterbury	Con	3.3%	44.9%	48.2%	6.2%
16	Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	Con	3.4%	36.8%	40.2%	3.7%	15.8%	1.0%
17	Coventry South	Con	3.5%	41.3%	44.8%	7.2%	3.3%	2.6%
18	Whitley Bay and Cramlington	Con	3.5%	39.1%	42.6%	5.4%	6.5%	5.5%
19	Bedford	Con	3.8%	41.1%	44.9%	10.0%	1.8%	2.0%
20	Warrington North	Con	3.8%	41.2%	45.0%	6.3%	5.2%	2.0%
21	Stockton North	Con	4.4%	40.2%	44.6%	4.4%	9.0%
22	Nottingham North and Kimberley	Con	4.7%	40.9%	45.6%	3.5%	4.6%	2.2%
23	Wirral West	Con	5.0%	41.9%	46.9%	6.9%	2.2%	2.0%
24	Normanton and Hemsworth	Con	5.1%	33.5%	38.6%	4.4%	13.9%	1.8%
25	Doncaster North	Con	5.3%	33.3%	38.6%	3.7%	19.7%
26	Blyth and Ashington	Con	5.4%	39.4%	44.8%	5.9%	7.9%	2.0%
27	Southgate and Barnet East	Con	5.4%	41.3%	46.7%	9.4%	0.7%	1.7%
28	Leicester West and Glenfield	Con	5.6%	41.8%	47.4%	5.6%	3.1%	2.1%
29	Leeds East	Con	6.1%	39.4%	45.5%	5.0%	6.0%	2.3%
30	Sunderland Central	Con	6.8%	35.4%	42.2%	7.0%	11.5%	2.8%
31	Erith and Thamesmead	Con	7.0%	39.4%	46.4%	5.9%	4.0%	3.2%
32	Washington and Sunderland South West	Con	7.3%	33.1%	40.4%	7.6%	14.8%	2.9%
33	Ashton-under-Lyne	Con	7.6%	38.2%	45.8%	3.4%	8.1%	4.3%
34	Bradford South	Con	8.2%	39.5%	47.7%	3.5%	6.4%	2.5%
35	Rotherham	Con	8.5%	33.0%	41.5%	5.5%	17.0%
36	Hartlepool	Con	8.8%	28.9%	37.7%	4.1%	25.7%
37	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Con	9.0%	38.9%	47.9%	4.8%	5.4%	2.9%
38	Kenton and Wembley West	Con	9.1%	40.2%	49.3%	7.6%	1.3%	0.9%
39	Croydon East	Con	9.1%	40.4%	49.5%	6.0%	1.7%	2.0%
40	Bristol North West	Con	9.2%	39.4%	48.6%	9.2%		2.8%
41	Putney	Con	9.4%	35.7%	45.1%	16.9%		2.2%
42	Battersea	Con	9.4%	36.1%	45.5%	15.3%	0.5%	2.5%
43	Worsley and Eccles	Con	9.5%	37.8%	47.3%	5.7%	7.4%	1.7%
44	Makerfield	Con	10.0%	34.9%	44.9%	4.7%	12.2%	2.5%
45	Bristol North East	Con	10.1%	39.4%	49.5%	5.4%	1.3%	3.0%
46	Barnsley South	Con	10.3%	27.6%	37.9%	3.6%	26.5%	2.4%
47	City of Durham	Con	10.5%	31.6%	42.1%	14.2%	9.5%	2.2%
48	North Durham	Con	10.7%	33.3%	44.0%	6.6%	10.7%	2.9%
49	Sheffield South East	Con	11.0%	35.7%	46.7%	4.2%	10.2%	0.7%
50	Tynemouth	Con	11.0%	35.8%	46.8%	4.7%	6.9%	3.8%
51	Huddersfield	Con	11.1%	37.6%	48.7%	5.4%	3.5%	4.3%
52	Barnsley North	Brex	11.2%	21.9%	41.3%	2.8%	30.1%	1.6%

[evergreenadam]

Jun 15, 2021 23:21:03 GMT pepperminttea said:

Some of these look wrong. I'm not sure how on earth they got that Croydon East was Labour by 9.1% for example. Sarah Jones only won by 11% and the seat has lost the solidly Labour Fairfield (Central Croydon) and the extremely Labour Woodside whilst gaining very Tory areas around Selsdon. I think it's quite possible she would've failed to win at all on these boundaries let alone win by that much!

Edit: Labour lost the list vote here in may by just shy 5,000 votes when reallocating postals (Khan did even worse but his performance didn't corollate to general election like the list vote generally did). I'm actually pretty confident that Croydon East on these boundaries would be a Tory seat. 

In which case should we believe any of these figures?

[pepperminttea]

Jun 15, 2021 23:46:15 GMT evergreenadam said:

Jun 15, 2021 23:21:03 GMT pepperminttea said:

Some of these look wrong. I'm not sure how on earth they got that Croydon East was Labour by 9.1% for example. Sarah Jones only won by 11% and the seat has lost the solidly Labour Fairfield (Central Croydon) and the extremely Labour Woodside whilst gaining very Tory areas around Selsdon. I think it's quite possible she would've failed to win at all on these boundaries let alone win by that much!

Edit: Labour lost the list vote here in may by just shy 5,000 votes when reallocating postals (Khan did even worse but his performance didn't corollate to general election like the list vote generally did). I'm actually pretty confident that Croydon East on these boundaries would be a Tory seat. 

In which case should we believe any of these figures?

Having a quick browse seems not. Looking at Bristol, I'm not sure quite how they managed to come to the conclusion swapping Lockleaze for Bishopston makes Bristol North West *more* Tory!!!  I mean Lockleaze is hardly good for the Tories but at least they can get a somewhat respectable vote share there (i.e. Labour may beat them by ~3:1), much better than the derisory near-to-deposit-loss number of votes that they typically get from Bishopston (where Labour will haven beaten them by closer to 10:1)... 

I hate to say it but these figures look to be utter garbage.

[grahammurray]

Jun 15, 2021 23:14:49 GMT evergreenadam said:

Jun 15, 2021 19:08:40 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

New notional calculations by Britain Elects (behind New Stateman's paywall, so tough luck if you have read four articles this month already)

I have asked whether the spreadsheet will be open data next week

How do they work out the Lib Dems would have a net gain of one if three seats flip to them and Westmorland and Lonsdale disappears?

Seats don'r disappear.

[John Chanin]

Jun 15, 2021 23:46:15 GMT evergreenadam said:

Jun 15, 2021 23:21:03 GMT pepperminttea said:

Some of these look wrong. I'm not sure how on earth they got that Croydon East was Labour by 9.1% for example. Sarah Jones only won by 11% and the seat has lost the solidly Labour Fairfield (Central Croydon) and the extremely Labour Woodside whilst gaining very Tory areas around Selsdon. I think it's quite possible she would've failed to win at all on these boundaries let alone win by that much!

Edit: Labour lost the list vote here in may by just shy 5,000 votes when reallocating postals (Khan did even worse but his performance didn't corollate to general election like the list vote generally did). I'm actually pretty confident that Croydon East on these boundaries would be a Tory seat. 

In which case should we believe any of these figures?

The only notionals I trust are those produced by Rallings & Thrasher, and to an extent Pete Whitehead .  The former have already said they won’t do it until the boundaries are finalised, which is sensible, as to do it properly is difficult and time-consuming.  And even then there will be errors.

[hullenedge]

Jun 16, 2021 0:00:50 GMT pepperminttea said:

Jun 15, 2021 23:46:15 GMT evergreenadam said:

In which case should we believe any of these figures?

Having a quick browse seems not. Looking at Bristol, I'm not sure quite how they managed to come to the conclusion swapping Lockleaze for Bishopston makes Bristol North West *more* Tory!!!  I mean Lockleaze is hardly good for the Tories but at least they can get a somewhat respectable vote share there (i.e. Labour may beat them by ~3:1), much better than the derisory near-to-deposit-loss number of votes that they typically get from Bishopston (where Labour will haven beaten them by closer to 10:1)... 

I hate to say it but these figures look to be utter garbage.

A bit harsh. It's a brave chap who publishes these figures. There are errors in the 1979 notionals!