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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2021 8:24:11 GMT
Since Jessica Cisneros is running in 2022, here's her performance against Henry Cuellar in 2020
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2021 8:28:00 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Aug 31, 2021 8:38:46 GMT
Since Jessica Cisneros is running in 2022, here's her performance against Henry Cuellar in 2020 The GOP would have probably gained the seat in 2020 if Cisneros was the nominee… |
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 31, 2021 9:56:39 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2021 18:26:05 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Aug 31, 2021 18:32:56 GMT
I wonder how much is 2020 distorting the Numbers in RGV & Metroplex? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2021 18:43:35 GMT
I wonder how much is 2020 distorting the Numbers in RGV & Metroplex? 2020 explains a lot of the map but Bush benefitted from a favourite son factor in 2004 along with solid numbers among Hispanics. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2021 21:43:34 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2021 17:03:00 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Sept 1, 2021 17:26:20 GMT
The GOP are not even close to maxing out in the Appalachian & Coastal parts of NC and the Dems are probably maxed out in the cities. |
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Post by Jonathan on Sept 1, 2021 17:59:59 GMT
The GOP are not even close to maxing out in the Appalachian & Coastal parts of NC and the Dems are probably maxed out in the cities. There is still room for the Democrats to gain in the urban and suburban parts of the country (look at the swing in Cabarrus and Alamance County). But can the Democrats gain more there than they lose in the rural areas? |
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Post by ibfc on Sept 1, 2021 18:06:33 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Sept 1, 2021 18:26:15 GMT
The GOP are not even close to maxing out in the Appalachian & Coastal parts of NC and the Dems are probably maxed out in the cities. There is still room for the Democrats to gain in the urban and suburban parts of the country (look at the swing in Cabarrus and Alamance County). But can the Democrats gain more there than they lose in the rural areas? I highly doubt the can gain a lot more votes in the likes of Wake and Mecklenburg , the only counties where I am pretty confident the Dems can takes some extra votes are Cabarrus & Union (and perhaps Buncombe) and I would be very surprised if it would outweigh Republican gains in the along the Tennessee border (plus some gains in coastal counties). A very interesting wildcard would be the counties East of Charlotte and West of Fayetteville (Scotland , Robeson , Hoke , Anson) |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 1, 2021 18:43:42 GMT
Excellent article! This is very close to my personal view on the two states with one crucial difference , I believe the ATL subs are probably going to move more slowly now that Trump is gone and crime is on the rise. I would also differentiate places like Gwinnett county from the likes of Northern Fulton as they have very different profiles (Gwinnett is racially and economically mixed while northern Fulton is mostly white & wealthy) |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 1, 2021 19:25:53 GMT
Really excellent - not only i, but even many InSiders like Miles Coleman predicted NC wrongly! |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 1, 2021 19:29:53 GMT
Really excellent - not only i, but even many InSiders like Miles Coleman predicted NC wrongly! Insiders and political scientists in the US tend to consistently underestimate the GOP for some reason. Every person with minimal knowledge of Wisconsin would have known that Bidan wasn’t going to win it by double digits but for some reason many of them thought he will….. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 1, 2021 23:03:51 GMT
Really excellent - not only i, but even many InSiders like Miles Coleman predicted NC wrongly! Insiders and political scientists in the US tend to consistently underestimate the GOP for some reason. Every person with minimal knowledge of Wisconsin would have known that Bidan wasn’t going to win it by double digits but for some reason many of them thought he will….. But, if i remember correctly, that was expected only, when the OpinionPolls saw such a DoubleDigit-lead - which was unlikely to ever materialize - nationwide. Like me many (at least one/some at 538) expected correctly, that WI would be the TippingPoint-state in 2020. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 2, 2021 2:34:54 GMT
Insiders and political scientists in the US tend to consistently underestimate the GOP for some reason. Every person with minimal knowledge of Wisconsin would have known that Bidan wasn’t going to win it by double digits but for some reason many of them thought he will….. But, if i remember correctly, that was expected only, when the OpinionPolls saw such a DoubleDigit-lead - which was unlikely to ever materialize - nationwide. Like me many (at least one/some at 538) expected correctly, that WI would be the TippingPoint-state in 2020. The only two states where my projections were wrong were Wisconsin & Georgia (I expected a very narrow Trump victory in both) , although one can say the I was also wrong on AZ as I thought Bidan was going to win it by something like 3%-5%. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 2, 2021 2:49:57 GMT
But, if i remember correctly, that was expected only, when the OpinionPolls saw such a DoubleDigit-lead - which was unlikely to ever materialize - nationwide. Like me many (at least one/some at 538) expected correctly, that WI would be the TippingPoint-state in 2020. The only two states were my projections were wrong were Wisconsin & Georgia (I expected a very narrow Trump victory in both) , although one can say the I was also wrong on AZ as I thought Bidan was going to win it by something like 3%-5%. Mine was, as said, NC (GA as a TossUp was after all even more correct than declaring it clearly Democratic):  |
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Post by ibfc on Sept 2, 2021 4:30:42 GMT
But, if i remember correctly, that was expected only, when the OpinionPolls saw such a DoubleDigit-lead - which was unlikely to ever materialize - nationwide. Like me many (at least one/some at 538) expected correctly, that WI would be the TippingPoint-state in 2020. The only two states where my projections were wrong were Wisconsin & Georgia (I expected a very narrow Trump victory in both) , although one can say the I was also wrong on AZ as I thought Bidan was going to win it by something like 3%-5%. I went wrong in AZ and GA. |
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