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Post by rcronald on Jul 29, 2021 14:26:55 GMT
This is the 2020 version:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 29, 2021 16:15:51 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jul 29, 2021 16:24:18 GMT
This is the 2020 version: This one is by region  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2021 7:14:23 GMT
Carl Levin's last election victory
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2021 20:08:40 GMT
This is the 2020 version: |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 31, 2021 3:17:39 GMT
This is the 2020 version: The demographics are awful for the Dems long term in Ohio,Iowa and Wisconsin |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 31, 2021 9:31:34 GMT
Hmmm, doesn't the last named have some expanding urban areas to offset the trends elsewhere?
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Post by ibfc on Jul 31, 2021 9:43:01 GMT
Wisconsin is more urban than the other two. Hence it’s still competitive as opposed to the other two which are now Likely R even when the Dems are a few points ahead nationally.
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 31, 2021 9:51:32 GMT
Yes, that's what I was getting at. Though we still don't know if a "generic GOP" candidate would do quite as well in IA and OH as Trump has done.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 31, 2021 11:10:19 GMT
Hmmm, doesn't the last named have some expanding urban areas to offset the trends elsewhere? What is preventing the GOP to runahead in WI is that union members still dont vote for them, should the Republicans manage to take more union members (like they did in almost every other state) then the Dems are finished. (like they are in Ohio) |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 31, 2021 11:11:55 GMT
Yes, that's what I was getting at. Though we still don't know if a "generic GOP" candidate would do quite as well in IA and OH as Trump has done. The fact that the GOP held the governorships in Ohio and Iowa in 2018 is probably a sign that even with more generic GOP candidates they have the edge. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 31, 2021 11:27:50 GMT
US CD by Median Household Income:  I would have also uploaded my full Exel table but I think you cant do that in the blog. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 31, 2021 16:21:24 GMT
Hmmm, doesn't the last named have some expanding urban areas to offset the trends elsewhere? What is preventing the GOP to runahead in WI is that union members still dont vote for them, should the Republicans manage to take more union members (like they did in almost every other state) then the Dems are finished. (like they are in Ohio) Union members aren’t actually very Democratic leaning these days even in a state like Wisconsin, and the ‘right to work’ law means that Wisconsin is noticeably less unionised than the US as a whole. The reason Democrats are still competitive in Wisconsin is that they get half decent numbers in rural areas, particularly in the west/south west of the state (similar to Iowa, Minnesota etc). Conversely, the reason it’s not a Democratic leaning state is that the Milwaukee suburbs are incredibly right wing and vote more like they are in the Deep South than Mid-West. Therefore, if Wisconsin started voting like it ‘should’, it wouldn’t do the Republicans much good, and may even help Democrats. |
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Post by ibfc on Jul 31, 2021 16:43:26 GMT
What is preventing the GOP to runahead in WI is that union members still dont vote for them, should the Republicans manage to take more union members (like they did in almost every other state) then the Dems are finished. (like they are in Ohio) Union members aren’t actually very Democratic leaning these days even in a state like Wisconsin, and the ‘right to work’ law means that Wisconsin is noticeably less unionised than the US as a whole. The reason Democrats are still competitive in Wisconsin is that they get half decent numbers in rural areas, particularly in the west/south west of the state (similar to Iowa, Minnesota etc). Conversely, the reason it’s not a Democratic leaning state is that the Milwaukee suburbs are incredibly right wing and vote more like they are in the Deep South than Mid-West. Therefore, if Wisconsin started voting like it ‘should’, it wouldn’t do the Republicans much good, and may even help Democrats. The WOW counties did swing against Trump in 2020 especially Waukesha county. He counteracted it by gaining rural swings. There are countervailing trends on both sides. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 31, 2021 17:00:58 GMT
Union members aren’t actually very Democratic leaning these days even in a state like Wisconsin, and the ‘right to work’ law means that Wisconsin is noticeably less unionised than the US as a whole. The reason Democrats are still competitive in Wisconsin is that they get half decent numbers in rural areas, particularly in the west/south west of the state (similar to Iowa, Minnesota etc). Conversely, the reason it’s not a Democratic leaning state is that the Milwaukee suburbs are incredibly right wing and vote more like they are in the Deep South than Mid-West. Therefore, if Wisconsin started voting like it ‘should’, it wouldn’t do the Republicans much good, and may even help Democrats. The WOW counties did swing against Trump in 2020 especially Waukesha county. He counteracted it by gaining rural swings. There are countervailing trends on both sides. And if you look at the current picture it seems to me to be more likely that the GOP gain in the rural counties that the Dems are increasingly out of touch with then the Dems gaining suburban votes that even stayed with the GOP in the Trump era. |
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Post by ibfc on Jul 31, 2021 17:16:54 GMT
The WOW counties did swing against Trump in 2020 especially Waukesha county. He counteracted it by gaining rural swings. There are countervailing trends on both sides. And if you look at the current picture it seems to me to be more likely that the GOP gain in the rural counties that the Dems are increasingly out of touch with then the Dems gaining suburban votes that even stayed with the GOP in the Trump era. I wouldn’t be so sure of the latter though I do agree that the evidence (whatever little is there post 2020) supports your position. Would be more confident of it after the 2022 midterms. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 31, 2021 18:38:15 GMT
US CD by Median Household Income: I would have also uploaded my full Exel table but I think you cant do that in the blog. From which year are Your data? Counties:  |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 31, 2021 18:45:31 GMT
And if you look at the current picture it seems to me to be more likely that the GOP gain in the rural counties that the Dems are increasingly out of touch with then the Dems gaining suburban votes that even stayed with the GOP in the Trump era. Just as you could argue that Democrats have reached their limits in places like the WOW suburbs (if Trump can't piss them off, who will?), you could do the same for Republicans in the rural areas (if Trump couldn't win them over, who will?). I would be cautious in assuming that current trends will continue or that parties have a ceiling in certain areas. Previous campaigns such as 1964 would have seemed to be the nadir for Republicans will more socially liberal voters, long term it was obviously not so in many places. People assumed Obama was the worst candidate for conservative southern whites, then they met Hillary (and in many places Biden did even worse). Political parties choose who they appeal to and can shape their coalition of support. Outside of actual significant demographic change, changes in support are largely down to the parties themselves and its not inevitable that they double down on the same strategies election and election. In fact, its rather notable how little correlation there has historically been in demographic/geographic swing from one election to the next, and 2012/2016/2020 was no different with many groups and counties swinging opposite ways from 2012-2016 to 2016-2020! |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 31, 2021 18:47:55 GMT
What is preventing the GOP to runahead in WI is that union members still dont vote for them, should the Republicans manage to take more union members (like they did in almost every other state) then the Dems are finished. (like they are in Ohio) Union members aren’t actually very Democratic leaning these days even in a state like Wisconsin, and the ‘right to work’ law means that Wisconsin is noticeably less unionised than the US as a whole. If we want to believe those ExitPolls, UnionMembers in MI & WI differ. ExitPoll of NORC (univ.Chicago) for Fox&AP:  Their rivals of EdisonResearch US-wide:  MidWest as a whole:      |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 31, 2021 18:54:52 GMT
Union members aren’t actually very Democratic leaning these days even in a state like Wisconsin, and the ‘right to work’ law means that Wisconsin is noticeably less unionised than the US as a whole. The reason Democrats are still competitive in Wisconsin is that they get half decent numbers in rural areas, particularly in the west/south west of the state (similar to Iowa, Minnesota etc). Conversely, the reason it’s not a Democratic leaning state is that the Milwaukee suburbs are incredibly right wing and vote more like they are in the Deep South than Mid-West. Therefore, if Wisconsin started voting like it ‘should’, it wouldn’t do the Republicans much good, and may even help Democrats. The WOW counties did swing against Trump in 2020 especially Waukesha county. He counteracted it by gaining rural swings. There are countervailing trends on both sides.    |
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