US election maps

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2020 21:37:16 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Dec 22, 2020 21:14:31 GMT John Chanin said:

I think what these maps show generally is the increasing polarization between cities and non-cities (small towns and rural). This is not a phenomenon unique to the USA, but can be seen quite widely. The political implcations then depend on whether cities are growing (universal in poorer and middle income countries), or whether they are losing population. I suspect in the USA this is fairly neutral, but others may know better. Clearly cities are expanding in some areas of the south, particularly Texas, but may still be losing population in the mid west.

Yes, there has been a polariziation with GOP losing the few cities they once held (TX, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Cincinnati) and few years ago it seemed a perennial trend. Yet, this time Trump gained traction with minorities, also in cities.

NYC:




Ethnies:

That last map of New York City is a work of art.

[Georg Ebner]

Chicago is another example of Trump performing better than in 2016. He was still far, far behind:

...but these are the changes 2016 vs. 2020:

...and the ethnies:

[Georg Ebner]

Based on these numbers for the House:



...are these maps:

[Deleted]

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 26, 2021 16:49:26 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

"My" maps PresidentialElections 2000-2020:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1IOZod20xQNE-JZVS_9ZuK6uIzlZHKm2Y?usp=sharing

[Deleted]

[rcronald]

I redistricted every US state, if you want to it too then I recommend DRA2020 🙂

[Deleted]

[rcronald]

Jul 28, 2021 7:35:20 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

The Democrats seem to have maximized their vote share in the urban areas while the Republicans haven’t maximized their rural share. If the Republicans manage to hold on to the Charlotte suburbs then they are okay in NC.

[The Bishop]

Trump's attempts to appeal to Native Americans flopped in many places, so I wonder why it worked in that NC county.

[jamie]

Jul 28, 2021 12:03:46 GMT The Bishop said:

Trump's attempts to appeal to Native Americans flopped in many places, so I wonder why it worked in that NC county.

The Lumbee are not much more Native American than Elizabeth Warren and the people of eastern Oklahoma. They are very socially conservative and want the government to give them the benefits that fully recognised tribes get (Biden endorsed this 1st, but Trump milked it more with an actual rally just before the election). 

[rcronald]

Jul 28, 2021 12:03:46 GMT The Bishop said:

Trump's attempts to appeal to Native Americans flopped in many places, so I wonder why it worked in that NC county.

If I remember correctly, unlike most In the SW (AZ,NM) where the Republicans are perceived as anti Native-American in NC and Oklahoma it is less clear.

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 28, 2021 6:15:29 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Amusingly/embarassingly this map isn't identical:

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 28, 2021 8:39:17 GMT rcronald said:

Jul 28, 2021 7:35:20 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

If the Republicans manage to hold on to the Charlotte suburbs then they are okay in NC.

[rcronald]

Jul 28, 2021 12:36:08 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jul 28, 2021 8:39:17 GMT rcronald said:

If the Republicans manage to hold on to the Charlotte suburbs then they are okay in NC.

I consider even more suburban parts of Mecklenburg to be Charlotte (and most of them are) and the Democratic have probably maximized their vote share there under Trump. I would look at places like Union and Gaston which I would have expected to swing more in 2020 like Calabasas (especially the south of the county)

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 28, 2021 12:48:40 GMT rcronald said:

Jul 28, 2021 12:36:08 GMT Georg Ebner said:

I consider even more suburban parts of Mecklenburg to be Charlotte (and most of them are) and the Democratic have probably maximized their vote share there under Trump. I would look at places like Union and Gaston which I would have expected to swing more in 2020 like Calabasas (especially the south of the county)

I can offer this one:

[rcronald]

Jul 28, 2021 16:29:09 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jul 28, 2021 12:48:40 GMT rcronald said:

I consider even more suburban parts of Mecklenburg to be Charlotte (and most of them are) and the Democratic have probably maximized their vote share there under Trump. I would look at places like Union and Gaston which I would have expected to swing more in 2020 like Calabasas (especially the south of the county)

I can offer this one:

But we are comparing it to 2012 not 2016, if I remember correctly the Republican margin increased in Gaston from 2012-2016 so the fall is bigger in 2016-2020 then 2012-2020. The map also shows that Trump performed v.well in the more outer suburbs/exurban parts of Gaston & Union.

[rcronald]

My Minnesota CD map:
1.Rural South (Leaning Republican)
2.Southern Twin-Cities Suburbs (Leaning Democrat)
3.Western Twin-Cities Suburbs (Safe Democrat)
4.Eastern & Northern Twin-Cities Suburbs (Safe Democrat)
5.Twin-Cities (Safe Democrat)
6.Twin-City Exurbs (Safe Republican)
7.Rural West (Safe Republican)
8.Rural North (Safe Republican)

davesredistricting.org/join/641033ca-1fc8-4d80-8585-0b2507dfddea

Enjoy!

[rcronald]

My Wisconsin CD map:
1.Southern Milwaukee suburbs (Leaning Republican)
2.Madison (Safe Democrat)
3.Rural SW Wisconsin (Leaning Republican)
4.Milwaukee (Safe Democrat)
5.Northern,Western suburbs & exurbs of Milwaukee (Safe Republican)
6.Rural Central Wisconsin (Safe Republican)
7.Rural NW Wisconsin (Safe Republican)
8.Rural NE Wisconsin & Green Bay (Safe Republican)
davesredistricting.org/join/542e0440-3969-4880-ac49-d3abe0e421cc

It should be noted that because the Democrats support base is so consetrated in Milwaukee & Madison it is practically impossible to create a 3rd blue seat unless you cut Milwaukee or Dane county. 

Enjoy!

[Deleted]