|
|
Post by rockefeller on Dec 28, 2022 9:06:02 GMT
A narrow Republican win despite losing 5/9 Congressional Districts. House Dems underperformed in AZ-1 and AZ-6
|
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Dec 29, 2022 8:37:13 GMT
2016-2020 swing with 2020s Congressional Districts
You can see how seven states: Arkansas, California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada and Utah got redder.
|
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 29, 2022 9:46:41 GMT
2016-2020 swing with 2020s Congressional Districts You can see how seven states: Arkansas, California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada and Utah got redder. Arkansas would probably be influenced by not having a Clinton on the ballot in 2020. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Dec 29, 2022 9:56:55 GMT
2016-2020 swing with 2020s Congressional Districts You can see how seven states: Arkansas, California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada and Utah got redder. Arkansas would probably be influenced by not having a Clinton on the ballot in 2020. Yes - notice how it's only the two rural districts, that have also moved the furthest 2000-16, where Democrats still had space to fall. |
|
|
|
Post by thirdchill on Dec 29, 2022 11:10:25 GMT
2016-2020 swing with 2020s Congressional Districts You can see how seven states: Arkansas, California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada and Utah got redder. Utah probably only got redder because Evan McMullin stood in 2016 (gaining a significant proportion of republican mormon voters who did not like Trump) but not in 2020. Will have to see how Utah looks at a presidential level when Trump is not on the ballot. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Dec 29, 2022 14:49:37 GMT
2016-2020 swing with 2020s Congressional Districts You can see how seven states: Arkansas, California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada and Utah got redder. Utah probably only got redder because Evan McMullin stood in 2016 (gaining a significant proportion of republican mormon voters who did not like Trump) but not in 2020. Will have to see how Utah looks at a presidential level when Trump is not on the ballot. Trump won by 18 in 2016 and by 20 in 2020, so McMullin's voters broke reasonably evenly. For obvious reasons 2012 is even less of a valud comparison point than 2016, but compared to 2008 the state has gotten 8 points bluer (a Butler swing of 4), 11 when normalizing for the national popular vote. Hard to say how much of that is due to Trump personally, as opposed to the direction of the GOP as a whole (demographic trends within Utah are a minorish factor statewide though a major one locally.) |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Dec 29, 2022 23:17:00 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Dec 30, 2022 3:25:54 GMT
Socialists wouldn't have as much power in New York City again until the late 2010s on - AOC, Jamaal Bowman etc. |
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Dec 30, 2022 4:17:14 GMT
Republicans' 2022 Johnson County, Kansas drubbing. The area was generally a GOP stronghold 'til 2020. No longer.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 30, 2022 14:37:48 GMT
Socialists wouldn't have as much power in New York City again until the late 2010s on - AOC, Jamaal Bowman etc. But they still don't designate themselves as "Socialist" - 1948 remains the last time anyone doing so got elected to Congress IIRC. |
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Dec 30, 2022 14:57:01 GMT
Socialists wouldn't have as much power in New York City again until the late 2010s on - AOC, Jamaal Bowman etc. But they don't designate themselves as "Socialist" - 1948 was still the last time anyone doing so got elected to Congress IIRC. The difference between now and then is the increased turnout in primaries and the more widespread use of them in general, IMO, which allows for outsiders to win the nomination for the big two. |
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Jan 2, 2023 21:04:56 GMT
2020-22 Michigan swing (Biden +3 to Whitmer +10)
|
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Jan 5, 2023 7:23:48 GMT
Mary Peltola holds this seat for as long as she wants, IMO
|
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Jan 7, 2023 7:40:13 GMT
Sen. Lisa Murkowski beat Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka and is unlikely to lose given her crossover appeal and RCV
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
|
Post by iain on Jan 7, 2023 11:05:34 GMT
Sen. Lisa Murkowski beat Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka and is unlikely to lose given her crossover appeal and RCV The old Murkowski coalition, which elected her in 2010 and 2016, has gone. She now basically has the electoral coalition of a moderate Democrat. Her crossover appeal is now with Republican voters. |
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Jan 7, 2023 17:41:33 GMT
Another sign of the Zeldin wave - a 36-year incumbent Democratic Assembly member went down in New York
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
|
Post by Sibboleth on Jan 7, 2023 18:11:57 GMT
To an extent, but also redistricting? A lot of those South Brooklyn districts were previously heavily gerrymandered, cutting through different communities of interest in a manner that didn't reflect local geography but did benefit local politicians who could play the interests-balancing game. They immediately became much more vulnerable with more rational boundaries.
|
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jan 7, 2023 18:37:22 GMT
Sen. Lisa Murkowski beat Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka and is unlikely to lose given her crossover appeal and RCV Aleutians East voted Murkowski-Palin. That's, like the single exception to the pattern. Amusing. |
|
|
|
Post by dizz on Jan 7, 2023 18:59:29 GMT
Sen. Lisa Murkowski beat Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka and is unlikely to lose given her crossover appeal and RCV Aleutians East voted Murkowski-Palin. That's, like the single exception to the pattern. Amusing. Because they can see Russia from their houses.  |
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Jan 8, 2023 5:24:17 GMT
Another sign of the Zeldin wave - a 36-year incumbent Democratic Assembly member went down in New York Another Assembly District flip in New York. Russian Americans in South Brooklyn swung hard right in 2022 |
|
