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Post by swanarcadian on Oct 17, 2024 13:21:43 GMT
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Post by gibbon on Oct 17, 2024 14:25:17 GMT
Reform's aim is to take over from the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour. Next May there are very few local elections in the Metropolitan districts so it is shire county seats that will be up for election.It will be intersting to see what effect the Green Party, Liberal Democrat and Reform have on the Conservative vote.
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 19, 2024 10:28:57 GMT
Lab 27 (-2)
Con 26 (+1)
Ref 20 (+1)
LD 12 (-2)
Green 9 (-2)
SNP 3 (+1)
13-14 Nov
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 19, 2024 16:39:12 GMT
A tad more from the latest poll.
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 19, 2024 17:24:59 GMT
I was never a Corbynite , but do suspect that Labour would now be polling a fair bit above current levels were he still leader. He still managed 33% across GB in 2019, and I feel it unlikely that his honeymoon would have been as short - or non-existent - such as we have seen with Starmer. He would not have alienated voters in the way Starmer and Reeves have done - indeed were he implementing his 2017 policies , many would be popular.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 19, 2024 19:20:48 GMT
I was never a Corbynite , but do suspect that Labour would now be polling a fair bit above current levels were he still leader. He still managed 33% across GB in 2019, and I feel it unlikely that his honeymoon would have been as short - or non-existent - such as we have seen with Starmer. He would not have alienated voters in the way Starmer and Reeves have done - indeed were he implementing his 2017 policies , many would be popular.I was never a Corbynite , but do suspect that Labour would now be polling a fair bit above current levels were he still leader. He still managed 33% across GB in 2019, and I feel it unlikely that his honeymoon would have been as short - or non-existent - such as we have seen with Starmer. He would not have alienated voters in the way Starmer and Reeves have done - indeed were he implementing his 2017 policies , many would be popular. You can say that again |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 19, 2024 21:55:03 GMT
I was never a Corbynite , but do suspect that Labour would now be polling a fair bit above current levels were he still leader. He still managed 33% across GB in 2019, and I feel it unlikely that his honeymoon would have been as short - or non-existent - such as we have seen with Starmer. He would not have alienated voters in the way Starmer and Reeves have done - indeed were he implementing his 2017 policies , many would be popular. This made me laugh. The Tories were seen as unreturnable to government in 2024, but they would have beaten Labour if Corbyn had still been Labour leader, so the whole post is errant nonsense. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 19, 2024 22:06:46 GMT
I was never a Corbynite , but do suspect that Labour would now be polling a fair bit above current levels were he still leader. He still managed 33% across GB in 2019, and I feel it unlikely that his honeymoon would have been as short - or non-existent - such as we have seen with Starmer. He would not have alienated voters in the way Starmer and Reeves have done - indeed were he implementing his 2017 policies , many would be popular. This made me laugh. The Tories were seen as unreturnable to government in 2024, but they would have beaten Labour if Corbyn had still been Labour leader, so the whole post is errant nonsense. there was a poll that showed Labour and the Tories in the 30s if Corbyn was leader probably hung parliament territory. But I think the author was suggesting if he became PM in 2017 but maybe I've not read that right Edit found one from August 23 which had Lab 36 Con 35 if Corbyn was leader but I'm sure I've seen a more recent one |
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 19, 2024 23:41:25 GMT
I was never a Corbynite , but do suspect that Labour would now be polling a fair bit above current levels were he still leader. He still managed 33% across GB in 2019, and I feel it unlikely that his honeymoon would have been as short - or non-existent - such as we have seen with Starmer. He would not have alienated voters in the way Starmer and Reeves have done - indeed were he implementing his 2017 policies , many would be popular. This made me laugh. The Tories were seen as unreturnable to government in 2024, but they would have beaten Labour if Corbyn had still been Labour leader, so the whole post is errant nonsense. Corbyn polled 33% against Johnson in 2019. Why would he have fared less well against Sunak in 2024? |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 20, 2024 0:10:30 GMT
I was never a Corbynite , but do suspect that Labour would now be polling a fair bit above current levels were he still leader. He still managed 33% across GB in 2019, and I feel it unlikely that his honeymoon would have been as short - or non-existent - such as we have seen with Starmer. He would not have alienated voters in the way Starmer and Reeves have done - indeed were he implementing his 2017 policies , many would be popular. Inclined to agree with this. Corbyn would have performed much worse in most of the constituencies that were competitive (a 2024 general election with Corbyn as Labour leader would probably have been a hung parliament) but he would have avoided the bleed of left-wing votes to independents and the Greens- probably ensuring he'd still have got around a third of the national vote like Starmer did, just with much less efficient distribution of that vote. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 20, 2024 0:28:43 GMT
I was never a Corbynite , but do suspect that Labour would now be polling a fair bit above current levels were he still leader. He still managed 33% across GB in 2019, and I feel it unlikely that his honeymoon would have been as short - or non-existent - such as we have seen with Starmer. He would not have alienated voters in the way Starmer and Reeves have done - indeed were he implementing his 2017 policies , many would be popular. Inclined to agree with this. Corbyn would have performed much worse in most of the constituencies that were competitive (a 2024 general election with Corbyn as Labour leader would probably have been a hung parliament) but he would have avoided the bleed of left-wing votes to independents and the Greens- probably ensuring he'd still have got around a third of the national vote like Starmer did, just with much less efficient distribution of that vote. I suspect we would have avoided the big drop in turnout compared to 2019. Both main parties would have polled better due to greater polarisation.. Labour would have picked up support from the Greens Left Independents and Non-Voters, whilst the Tories would have hung on to some support which switched to Reform and the LDs. An outcome of Lab 36% Con 30% strikes me as likely. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 20, 2024 0:51:02 GMT
Inclined to agree with this. Corbyn would have performed much worse in most of the constituencies that were competitive (a 2024 general election with Corbyn as Labour leader would probably have been a hung parliament) but he would have avoided the bleed of left-wing votes to independents and the Greens- probably ensuring he'd still have got around a third of the national vote like Starmer did, just with much less efficient distribution of that vote. I suspect we would have avoided the big drop in turnout compared to 2019. Both main parties would have polled better due to greater polarisation.. Labour would have picked up support from the Greens Left Independents and Non-Voters, whilst the Tories would have hung on to some support which switched to Reform and the LDs. An outcome of Lab 36% Con 30% strikes me as likely. Good chance that Reform wouldn't have even become a major force at all, with people not risking it thanks to the risk of Corbyn. Would also have been a much more Gaza-focused election campaign by Labour, with Corbyn promising a halt to arms sales to Israel. Completely different dynamics to the election we got in reality. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2024 11:09:05 GMT
2017 and even 2019 were elections polarised around two options in a way 2024 wasn't. That alone makes comparing them pretty pointless.
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 20, 2024 14:02:09 GMT
Were Corbyn still leader the 2024 GE would also have been more polarised. The Tories would have polled better at the expense of Reform and the LDs, but Corbyn would have exceeded the 2019 vote share and received a higher absolute vote on a higher turnout. Post-election we would not have seen the Labour slump of recent months.The Abolition of Tuition Fees etc plus higher taxes on the wealthy would have gone down well.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 20, 2024 20:17:25 GMT
If Corbyn had still been leader, the Labour party would probably have spent the last 5 years tearing itself apart repeatedly (even more).
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 20, 2024 22:13:36 GMT
This made me laugh. The Tories were seen as unreturnable to government in 2024, but they would have beaten Labour if Corbyn had still been Labour leader, so the whole post is errant nonsense. Corbyn polled 33% against Johnson in 2019. Why would he have fared less well against Sunak in 2024? Because in the 5 intervening years the public, and much of Labour, has woken up to the fact he is a political maverick unfit to hold any ministerial office let alone that of Prime Minister. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 20, 2024 22:31:26 GMT
Corbyn polled 33% against Johnson in 2019. Why would he have fared less well against Sunak in 2024? Because in the 5 intervening years the public, and much of Labour, has woken up to the fact he is a political maverick unfit to hold any ministerial office let alone that of Prime Minister. of all the arguments you could make this seems the least convincing. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 21, 2024 20:28:46 GMT
Because in the 5 intervening years the public, and much of Labour, has woken up to the fact he is a political maverick unfit to hold any ministerial office let alone that of Prime Minister. of all the arguments you could make this seems the least convincing. Why do you say that? Because I used the polite word maverick? Rather than any of the more impolite options like moron, lunatic, jew hater. What are the more convincing arguments? |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 21, 2024 20:39:28 GMT
of all the arguments you could make this seems the least convincing. Why do you say that? Because I used the polite word maverick? Rather than any of the more impolite options like moron, lunatic, jew hater. What are the more convincing arguments? Centrist politics doesn't move me. It's bearable. As for the right, particularly Reform, I disagree with the lot. Corbyn has some faults, but in terms of, say, the 2017 elections, certainly convincing for me. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 21, 2024 20:53:24 GMT
of all the arguments you could make this seems the least convincing. Why do you say that? Because I used the polite word maverick? Rather than any of the more impolite options like moron, lunatic, jew hater. What are the more convincing arguments? I don't think people's opinions of Jeremy since 2020 are that dissimilar to people's opinions of Jeremy pre 2020. |
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