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Post by greenchristian on May 13, 2024 20:19:35 GMT
"How you would vote if X was different" polling questions are notoriously unreliable. This only really tells us that around 6% of non-Reform voters would think more highly of them (or more if there are a substantial number of Reform voters who would strongly disapprove of it - which I can''t tell because the link to full tables is to an entirely different spreadsheet).
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Post by edgbaston on May 13, 2024 22:14:48 GMT
We really deserve a Farage - Sunak - Starmer - Davey - Swinney leadership debate with whichever two random crazies the Greens and Plaid put up for good measure. I want everyone accusing everyone else of betrayal |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 13, 2024 22:44:35 GMT
We really deserve a Farage - Sunak - Starmer - Davey - Swinney leadership debate with whichever two random crazies the Greens and Plaid put up for good measure. I want everyone accusing everyone else of betrayal No reason to include Farage in any leadership debateReform's election performance does not justify Ofcom awarding the party Major party status. It should be treated like present day Ukip at the GE by broadcasters. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 14, 2024 5:34:15 GMT
We really deserve a Farage - Sunak - Starmer - Davey - Swinney leadership debate with whichever two random crazies the Greens and Plaid put up for good measure. I want everyone accusing everyone else of betrayal No reason to include Farage in any leadership debateReform's election performance does not justify Ofcom awarding the party Major party status. It should be treated like present day Ukip at the GE by broadcasters. So speaks the voice of the establishment. Keeping people like Reform out is one of the reasons the public have no respect for broadcasters or mainstream political parties. It really is just about keeping the same noses in the same troughs. |
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Post by hullenedge on May 14, 2024 6:31:49 GMT
We really deserve a Farage - Sunak - Starmer - Davey - Swinney leadership debate with whichever two random crazies the Greens and Plaid put up for good measure. I want everyone accusing everyone else of betrayal That could shave five points or so from the turnout figures. This isn't a great poll for Nige. Not the lift into the 20s that some were expecting. |
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Post by bigfatron on May 14, 2024 6:33:14 GMT
No reason to include Farage in any leadership debateReform's election performance does not justify Ofcom awarding the party Major party status. It should be treated like present day Ukip at the GE by broadcasters. So speaks the voice of the establishment. Keeping people like Reform out is one of the reasons the public have no respect for broadcasters or mainstream political parties. It really is just about keeping the same noses in the same troughs. You’ve only just noticed that the system has been rigged in favour of the two main parties for the last fifty years? Some folk only seem upset when it’s a right wing alternative that is suffering… |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 14, 2024 7:14:49 GMT
So speaks the voice of the establishment. Keeping people like Reform out is one of the reasons the public have no respect for broadcasters or mainstream political parties. It really is just about keeping the same noses in the same troughs. You’ve only just noticed that the system has been rigged in favour of the two main parties for the last fifty years? Some folk only seem upset when it’s a right wing alternative that is suffering…
Just noticed? Depends what you mean by just. I realised it was rigged around the time I started voting Green, around 2007. Way before I started posting here, my starting posting here coincided with a rightward political drift in my views, hence you thinking me of having right leaning tantrums.
You might have had an arguement that it's a two party trough pre-2010, but Nick Clegg shafted you on that one.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 14, 2024 9:41:12 GMT
No reason to include Farage in any leadership debateReform's election performance does not justify Ofcom awarding the party Major party status. It should be treated like present day Ukip at the GE by broadcasters. So speaks the voice of the establishment. Keeping people like Reform out is one of the reasons the public have no respect for broadcasters or mainstream political parties. It really is just about keeping the same noses in the same troughs. Not at all. Parties such as the LDs and the Greens would qualify for Major party status as was the case at recent GEs. That also applied to the Brexit Party in 2019 and Ukip in 2015 because votes cast for them at the ballot box had confirmed the message of pollsters. Reform won just 2 councillors on May 2nd and it has not performed strongly at parliamentary by elections. Why would it merit more coverage than present day Ukip . the BNP, National Front, OMRLP or the Reclaim Party? The sudden intervention of Farage should have zero impact on Ofcom's view as to whether is is currently a Major party. Personally I hope we have no Debates at all - they are but a distraction and add nothing to the campaign.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 14, 2024 10:41:28 GMT
So speaks the voice of the establishment. Keeping people like Reform out is one of the reasons the public have no respect for broadcasters or mainstream political parties. It really is just about keeping the same noses in the same troughs. Not at all. Parties such as the LDs and the Greens would qualify for Major party status as was the case at recent GEs. That also applied to the Brexit Party in 2019 and Ukip in 2015 because votes cast for them at the ballot box had confirmed the message of pollsters. Reform won just 2 councillors on May 2nd and it has not performed strongly at parliamentary by elections. Why would it merit more coverage than present day Ukip . the BNP, National Front, OMRLP or the Reclaim Party? The sudden intervention of Farage should have zero impact on Ofcom's view as to whether is is currently a Major party. Personally I hope we have no Debates at all - they are but a distraction and add nothing to the campaign.
I'd also prefer no debates, my point was general not particularly about Reform.
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Post by greenrichard on May 15, 2024 17:11:16 GMT
I think the debates bring in people who aren’t necessarily that interested in politics.
Arguably the exclusion and then inclusion of the Greens in the 2015 has made a big difference to the subsequent debate around climate change but also helped the surge in Green Party membership which has led to a rapid increase in councillors and perhaps another MP or two at this election. Thanks to David Cameron who said he wouldn’t debate if the Greens weren’t included. Presumably he thought having a party further to the left of Labour at the debate would affect Labour’s vote 🤷♂️
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graham
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Post by graham on May 15, 2024 19:11:15 GMT
I think the debates bring in people who aren’t necessarily that interested in politics. Arguably the exclusion and then inclusion of the Greens in the 2015 has made a big difference to the subsequent debate around climate change but also helped the surge in Green Party membership which has led to a rapid increase in councillors and perhaps another MP or two at this election. Thanks to David Cameron who said he wouldn’t debate if the Greens weren’t included. Presumably he thought having a party further to the left of Labour at the debate would affect Labour’s vote 🤷♂️ In 2015 Green candidates in key marginal seats likely helped Cameron and the Tories to a small overall majority. 7 or 8 seats were won by the Tories which otherwise would have gone - or remained - Labour. Had that not happened, Cameron would have faced a similar situation to May in 2017 - and it is far from clear that the 2016 Referendum would have gone ahead. |
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Post by gibbon on May 16, 2024 8:28:11 GMT
Although the Green Party profess to be a radical alternative to the Labour Party they have a history supporting Conservative or abti Labour coalitions. In 2004 whenLabour was the largets party on Leeds City Council the Green Party happily joined the Conservative/Liberal Democrat alliance to run the Council for three years.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 16, 2024 9:39:15 GMT
Two Green County Councillors elected in Norwich proceeded to defect to the Tories in the last decade.
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Raddy
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Post by Raddy on May 16, 2024 19:51:18 GMT
We really deserve a Farage - Sunak - Starmer - Davey - Swinney leadership debate with whichever two random crazies the Greens and Plaid put up for good measure. I want everyone accusing everyone else of betrayal No reason to include Farage in any leadership debateReform's election performance does not justify Ofcom awarding the party Major party status. It should be treated like present day Ukip at the GE by broadcasters. Some people never learn do they, 30 years of undemocratic miserable failures in trying to no platform him achieved 4/5ths of sod all. Farage doesn't need the MSM media any more, it seems they need him more. If Farage keeps leading them by the nose on his intentions upto any debate, announcing a Reform conference to coincide with the debate would wreck the viewing figures. What a choice being bored to death by Starmer, Sunak, Davey and whatever anti Semite currently is leading the Green party or being entertained by Farage |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 16, 2024 20:31:46 GMT
No reason to include Farage in any leadership debateReform's election performance does not justify Ofcom awarding the party Major party status. It should be treated like present day Ukip at the GE by broadcasters. Some people never learn do they, 30 years of undemocratic miserable failures in trying to no platform him achieved 4/5ths of sod all. Farage doesn't need the MSM media any more, it seems they need him more. If Farage keeps leading them by the nose on his intentions upto any debate, announcing a Reform conference to coincide with the debate would wreck the viewing figures. What a choice being bored to death by Starmer, Sunak, Davey and whatever anti Semite currently is leading the Green party or being entertained by Farage Well, to compare Farage having a conference during a debate between the Party Leaders during a General Election, to Trump staging rallies during Primary debates is to somewhat overegg the comparison. Nigel Farage is not a good speechmaker, also, he doesn't appeal to voters as Trump does to his base. If Farage leads the Reform campaign, he will want to be in the Leaders' Debate, unlike Trump, who hates them. |
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Raddy
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Post by Raddy on May 16, 2024 22:36:52 GMT
Some people never learn do they, 30 years of undemocratic miserable failures in trying to no platform him achieved 4/5ths of sod all. Farage doesn't need the MSM media any more, it seems they need him more. If Farage keeps leading them by the nose on his intentions upto any debate, announcing a Reform conference to coincide with the debate would wreck the viewing figures. What a choice being bored to death by Starmer, Sunak, Davey and whatever anti Semite currently is leading the Green party or being entertained by Farage Well, to compare Farage having a conference during a debate between the Party Leaders during a General Election, to Trump staging rallies during Primary debates is to somewhat overegg the comparison. Nigel Farage is not a good speechmaker, also, he doesn't appeal to voters as Trump does to his base. If Farage leads the Reform campaign, he will want to be in the Leaders' Debate, unlike Trump, who hates them. "Farage is not a good speechmaker" That of course is a matter of opinion, he never seems to fail to fill venues. If Farage is not a good speechmaker, God only knows how you would describe Sunak, Starmer and Davey, as they say 'in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king' Farage if he stands at all, I fancy will remain uncommitted until very near the candidate closure date, and with Ofcom stating he can continue with his GB news show upto the election, or to whatever date he may decide to stand, why wouldn't he. I do admit though debating with those three policy vacuum wooden clowns without a personality between them would be like taking sweets of a child to him. |
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Post by johnloony on May 17, 2024 10:06:14 GMT
Some people never learn do they, 30 years of undemocratic miserable failures in trying to no platform him achieved 4/5ths of sod all. Farage doesn't need the MSM media any more, it seems they need him more. If Farage keeps leading them by the nose on his intentions upto any debate, announcing a Reform conference to coincide with the debate would wreck the viewing figures. What a choice being bored to death by Starmer, Sunak, Davey and whatever anti Semite currently is leading the Green party or being entertained by Farage Well, to compare Farage having a conference during a debate between the Party Leaders during a General Election, to Trump staging rallies during Primary debates is to somewhat overegg the comparison. Nigel Farage is not a good speechmaker, also, he doesn't appeal to voters as Trump does to his base. If Farage leads the Reform campaign, he will want to be in the Leaders' Debate, unlike Trump, who hates them. Yes he is, but that’s not relevant anyway |
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Post by andrewp on May 28, 2024 17:20:01 GMT
JLP/@restispolitics election poll, 24th-25th May 2024, change on early May
Labour: 40% (-1)
Conservatives: 28% (+2)
Reform UK: 12% (-1)
Lib Dems: 10% (-1)
Green: 5% (-)
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 28, 2024 17:22:55 GMT
JLP/@restispolitics election poll, 24th-25th May 2024, change on early May Labour: 40% (-1) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Reform UK: 12% (-1) Lib Dems: 10% (-1) Green: 5% (-)
This is the one Tories have been ramping today then. Hardly something to scream about given they are MOE changes. Though 12 points is our lowest poll lead in quite some time. Note it's quite different to the 23 point lead on today's other two polls.
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Post by adlai52 on May 28, 2024 17:27:13 GMT
JLP say that they use a specific mechanism for reassigning undecideds - is there a simple explanation for what this is and how its different from the other pollsters?
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