Carshalton and Wallington

[londonseal80]

My third and final constituency profile - I admit it needs brushing up a bit (any suggestions welcome).

Created for the February 1974 general election under the name “Sutton, Carshalton” the boundaries of this seat were first used in 1973 for the GLC election of which Labour won, though in general elections they have never come particularly close to winning the seat. In 1983 the seat was renamed Carshalton and Wallington the boundaries altered to reflect the 1978 ward boundaries by this time the Alliance were the second party here though the Conservative were still safe here. In 1992 Tom Brake of the Liberal Democrats first contested the seat bringing the majority to under 10,000. Before in 1997 ousting Nigel Forman who had been the MP since the 1976 by-election of which he had always looked comfortable holding. Tom Brake then held the seat constituency from 1997 (of which the all the SW London seats feel the Lib Dem seats) till 2019, often on majorities of barely over a thousand. This isn’t classic Liberal territory either it is more of South London outer suburban seat and has much more in common with areas like Bexley than Richmond. This was due to the local high profile candidate more than anything else and campaign heavily on the future of St Helier Hospital, despite his popularity as a constituency MP, the issue of Brexit and his parties stance against it, this seat voted leave in 2016, Eliot Colburn of the Conservatives won the seat at the last election. It will be interesting to seat what happens in this seat in the future.



St Helier, Wandle Valley and The Wrythe.

This is the most working class area of the seat and contains the hospital, which roughly contributes the old 1964 wards of Carshalton St Helier West, Carshalton St Helier North, Carshalton St Helier South and Carshalton North East and part of the old Wallington North. The St Helier Estate wards were safely held by Labour in 1968 as this was solid council estate territory, Carshalton North East was more a Labour held marginal that the Conservatives would win in good years. The successor ward Wrythe Green was Conservative in 1978 and 1982 and never won by Labour due to the success of he Liberal Democrats in this borough from 1986 onwards. The St Helier estate straddles between the areas of Morden and Carshalton. The Morden part is solid safe Labour territory with Inner South London demographics, The Carshalton side is still more white working class territory and although this would be fruitful for labour, The Lib Dems have the councillors, in the last two general elections, the Conservatives have had the highest vote in these wards, perhaps this is due to the issue of Brexit and there is also a right wing Thatcherite white van man working class vote here too that took advantage of the right to buy scheme in the 1980s.

Carshalton Central and South

This is the distinctly the posher and scenic part of the seat and where once there was the strong Conservative vote however since 1994 the Lib Dems have been strong here, the Tories did win the Carshalton South and Clockhouse back in 2006 and won a councillor in Carshalton Central, future Sutton and Cheam MP Paul Scully. In 2010 Carshalton Central reverted back to Lib Dems and Carshalton South has remained two Cons 1 Lib Dem ever since. There are many historic houses around here you have Little Holland House in Park Hill, and around Carshalton Ponds you have the old water tower and the Heritage Centre. There also a selection of old pubs here, The Woodman, The Greyhound and The Windsor Castle of which bus route 154 which number derived the old 654 trolleybus which ran from Crystal palace to Sutton via Carshalton. It ran along Ruskin Road where Carshalton Park is located. There is footpath linking this park to the ponds, there is a ditch next to this park where the River Wandle used to run and does fill up during heavy rain.

Wallington

This is other main settlement in the borough, originally a Residents stronghold, this is where the strongest Liberal Democrat vote is and likely (along with Carshalton South) the most remain voting part of the seat. This is relatively affluent area particulary in the south, it contains of small high street stretching from the railway station to Stafford Road, the is also a huge Garden centre in the south called Woodcote Green on Woodmansterne Lane.

Beddington

This also used to be a Residents stronghold split into two wards North and South, with varying boundaries across the years. The North contains the large industrial area from which the large ASDA store sits. This largely MOR suburbia with some vary affluent roads in the south, in contrast there is a medium sized council estate there called Roundshaw built on the old Croydon Airport site. It was redeveloped in the late 1990s. Politically the Beddington area was a Labour/Residents/Conservative marginal battleground until 1978 when the Conservatives won both wards. In 1986 the Alliance (Lib Dems) won both wards and held them comfortably until 2006. When the Tories won Beddington South and narrowly missed out on Beddington North. In 2010 the Lib Dems took two seats back in Beddington South and in 2018 took the ward outright. However in Beddington North saw the return of local community politics as the Beddington Independent Residents took the ward (with the main issue being the opposition tot the proposed incinerator).

[Robert Waller]

Time to 'move to London', I think ... this is my next work in progress.

[Robert Waller]

Between 1997 and 2019 one phenomenon of English electoral politics was the semi-circular arc of five Liberal Democrat constituencies in outer south-west London – and indeed the arc of their electoral narratives. These were: Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston & Surbiton, Sutton & Cheam, and Carshalton & Wallington. They were not always won by the Liberal Democrats every time, but they were all won by them more often than not in that time period. In some ways, though, Carshalton and Wallington is the odd one out. It was the only one which did not fall to the Conservatives in the catastrophe that afflicted the Liberal Democrats in 2015. On the other hand it was the only one of these that the Tories gained in December 2019.

This may perhaps be explained by its different demographic characteristics, and the consequent political effects. Of all the five seats this is the most ‘down-market’ in terms of socio-economic class, and, closely related, education. Let us consider, for example the percentage of residents with level 4 or above educational qualifications (roughly equivalent to having a degree) in the most recent (2011) Census; Carshalton and Wallington’s figure is 27.2%, very close to the UK average but low compared with a Greater London average of 37.7%.

Sutton and Cheam, though, was 33%, Kingston/Surbiton 39%, Twickenham 49.5% and Richmond Park 55% (second highest of all 650 seats in the UK). It is widely accepted that the single most important factor in the 2019 general election results was attitude towards Brexit, and that this in turn was strongly related to education. In the 2016 referendum Carshalton and Wallington is estimated to be one of the minority of Greater London seats that voted to ‘leave’, by around 56% to 44%. By contrast Sutton and Cheam’s ‘Brexit’ figure was only 51%, and the other three in the ‘Lib Dem crescent’ all voted heavily to remain – and all three were regained in 2017 and easily retained in 2019.

Tom Brake had built up a substantial personal following over his 22 years as MP, but it was not enough to repel the ‘get Brexit done’ surge. Nor was the long term and continued Liberal Democrat strength in the Sutton council area. Despite the semi-comic reputation of Carshalton Beeches as a fashionable ex-Surrey top residential area, the Carshalton and Wallington constituency has for decades been far from iron-clad Conservative territory in either local government or parliamentary representation. The Beeches are not socially typical of the division as a whole. For a start it includes part of the giant inter-war council estate of St Helier, shared with the Mitcham and Morden seat in the borough of Merton. As well as Carshalton itself, its centre attractively set around a pond, the seat includes the communities of Beddington and Wallington. There is another large council estate in Roundshaw, south Beddington, the site of the former Croydon Airport. Also included are more downscale terraced and semi-detached housing areas further towards the centre of London in the Wandle Valley and The Wrythe wards.

More significantly, it should be borne in mind that Carshalton and Wallington forms one of the two seats in the London Borough of Sutton. Sutton has stepwise, as the Americans might say, become one of the strongest Liberal Democrat fortresses in England over the four decades. After taking minority control of the council in 1986, and an overall majority four years later, in 1998 the Liberal Democrats won 46 seats there (including Carshalton Beeches, easily), the Conservatives and Labour just five apiece. The Sutton councillor (Carshalton Central ward) Tom Brake ousted the Conservative MP Nigel Forman in one of five Liberal Democrat gains in outer south-west London in the 1997 General Election as the Tories lost no less than 16% of the share of the vote. As in the borough elections, the Lib Dems showed that they can build on success, and in 2001 Brake doubled his lead, and then became established like his municipal colleagues holding on four more times, albeit usually narrowly, until his eventual defeat by Elliot Colburn in 2019.

In the most recent council elections in May 2018 the Liberal Democrats retained control of Sutton borough council with 34 out of the 54 seats, but they were much stronger in this parliamentary division than in Sutton and Cheam, winning all the wards except for Beddington North, where they were beaten not by another party but by three independents.

Unlike Sutton and Cheam, where the Tory lead was over 8,000 in 2019, once the Brexit fog has cleared the Liberal Democrats will be serious contenders again here, though it is unclear whether Tom Brake’s personal vote will be available. Europe may have been the reason why Tom Brake was the only LD MP in London to be able to hang on in 2015. His share then actually declined more than his colleague Paul Burstow next door in Sutton and Cheam, for example, but the Conservatives did not do as well, with the UKIP share rising by the most in the five seats under comparison. Ironically Brake was his party’s lead spokesman on Brexit issues, and his constituency’s Euro-scepticism did him in, in the end. But while it may be the end of the UK in the EU, it is not definitively the end for the Liberal Democrats in Carshalton and Wallington.

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 64.9% 385/650
Private rented 13.0% 398/650
Social rented 20.5% 201/650
White 78.6% 534/650
Black 6.1% 84/650
Asian 10.3% 120/650
Managerial & professional 33.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.5%
Degree level 27.2% 267/650
No qualifications 20.1% 450/650
Students 7.8% 238/650
Age 65+ 13.1% 546/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 64.8% 313/573
Private rented 15.9% 393/573
Social rented 19.4% 174/573
White 68.6%
Black 7.4%
Asian 15.9%
Managerial & professional 36.9% 172/573
Routine & Semi-routine 18.8% 453/573
Degree level 37.4% 145/573
No qualifications 16.1% 371/573




General Election 2019: Carshalton and Wallington

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Elliot Colburn 20,822 42.4 +4.1
Liberal Democrats Tom Brake 20,193 41.1 +0.1
Labour Ahmad Wattoo 6,081 12.4 -6.0
Brexit Party James Woudhuysen 1,043 2.1 New
Green Tracey Hague 759 1.5 -0.5
CPA Ashley Dickenson 200 0.4 Steady 0.0

C Majority 629 1.3 N/A

Turnout 49,098 67.3 -4.3

Registered electors 72,926

Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats
Swing +2.0 LD to C

[Robert Waller]

I have just noticed that in fact there is already a profile and thread for this seat.
In my defence I would say that it had not been removed from John’s list of outstanding seats.
Anyway, in the spirit of choice ....

[greenhert]

Nov 27, 2020 21:19:15 GMT Robert Waller said:

Between 1997 and 2019 one phenomenon of English electoral politics was the semi-circular arc of five Liberal Democrat constituencies in outer south-west London – and indeed the arc of their electoral narratives. These were: Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston & Surbiton, Sutton & Cheam, and Carshalton & Wallington. They were not always won by the Liberal Democrats every time, but they were all won by them more often than not in that time period. In some ways, though, Carshalton and Wallington is the odd one out. It was the only one which did not fall to the Conservatives in the catastrophe that afflicted the Liberal Democrats in 2015. On the other hand it was the only one of these that the Tories gained in December 2019.
This may perhaps be explained by its different demographic characteristics, and the consequent political effects. Of all the five seats this is the most ‘down-market’ in terms of socio-economic class, and, closely related, education. Let us consider, for example the percentage of residents with level 4 or above educational qualifications (roughly equivalent to having a degree) in the most recent (2011) Census; Carshalton and Wallington’s figure is 27.2%, very close to the UK average but low compared with a Greater London average of 37.7%.
Sutton and Cheam, though, was 33%, Kingston/Surbiton 39%, Twickenham 49.5% and Richmond Park 55% (second highest of all 650 seats in the UK). It is widely accepted that the single most important factor in the 2019 general election results was attitude towards Brexit, and that this in turn was strongly related to education. In the 2016 referendum Carshalton and Wallington is estimated to be one of the minority of Greater London seats that voted to ‘leave’, by around 56% to 44%. By contrast Sutton and Cheam’s ‘Brexit’ figure was only 51%, and the other three in the ‘Lib Dem crescent’ all voted heavily to remain – and all three were regained in 2017 and easily retained in 2019.
Tom Brake had built up a substantial personal following over his 22 years as MP, but it was not enough to repel the ‘get Brexit done’ surge. Nor was the long term and continued Liberal Democrat strength in the Sutton council area. Despite the semi-comic reputation of Carshalton Beeches as a fashionable ex-Surrey top residential area, the Carshalton and Wallington constituency has for decades been far from iron-clad Conservative territory in either local government or parliamentary representation. The Beeches are not socially typical of the division as a whole. For a start it includes part of the giant inter-war council estate of St Helier, shared with the Mitcham and Morden seat in the borough of Merton. As well as Carshalton itself, its centre attractively set around a pond, the seat includes the communities of Beddington and Wallington. There is another large council estate in Roundshaw, south Beddington, the site of the former Croydon Airport. Also included are more downscale terraced and semi-detached housing areas further towards the centre of London in the Wandle Valley and The Wrythe wards.
More significantly, it should be borne in mind that Carshalton and Wallington forms one of the two seats in the London Borough of Sutton. Sutton has stepwise, as the Americans might say, become one of the strongest Liberal Democrat fortresses in England over the four decades. After taking minority control of the council in 1986, and an overall majority four years later, in 1998 the Liberal Democrats won 46 seats there (including Carshalton Beeches, easily), the Conservatives and Labour just five apiece. The Sutton councillor (Carshalton Central ward) Tom Brake ousted the Conservative MP Nigel Forman in one of five Liberal Democrat gains in outer south-west London in the 1997 General Election as the Tories lost no less than 16% of the share of the vote. As in the borough elections, the Lib Dems showed that they can build on success, and in 2001 Brake doubled his lead, and then became established like his municipal colleagues holding on four more times, albeit usually narrowly, until his eventual defeat by Elliot Colburn in 2019.
In the most recent council elections in May 2018 the Liberal Democrats retained control of Sutton borough council with 34 out of the 54 seats, but they were much stronger in this parliamentary division than in Sutton and Cheam, winning all the wards except for Beddington North, where they were beaten not by another party but by three independents.
Unlike Sutton and Cheam, where the Tory lead was over 8,000 in 2019, once the Brexit fog has cleared the Liberal Democrats will be serious contenders again here, though it is unclear whether Tom Brake’s personal vote will be available. Europe may have been the reason why Tom Brake was the only LD MP in London to be able to hang on in 2015. His share then actually declined more than his colleague Paul Burstow next door in Sutton and Cheam, for example, but the Conservatives did not do as well, with the UKIP share rising by the most in the five seats under comparison. Ironically Brake was his party’s lead spokesman on Brexit issues, and his constituency’s Euro-scepticism did him in, in the end. But while it may be the end of the UK in the EU, it is not definitively the end for the Liberal Democrats in Carshalton and Wallington.



General election 2019: Carshalton and Wallington

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Elliot Colburn 20,822 42.4 +4.1
Liberal Democrats Tom Brake 20,193 41.1 +0.1
Labour Ahmad Wattoo 6,081 12.4 -6.0
Brexit Party James Woudhuysen 1,043 2.1 New
Green Tracey Hague 759 1.5 -0.5
CPA Ashley Dickenson 200 0.4 Steady 0.0

Majority 629 1.3 N/A

Turnout 49,098 67.3 -4.3

Registered electors 72,926

Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats Swing +2.0

For the record, Richmond Park was not regained by the Liberal Democrats in 2017 (they won it in a 2016 by-election but lost it back to Zac Goldsmith in 2017 by just 45 votes), but rather in 2019.

[John Chanin]

Nov 27, 2020 22:11:19 GMT Robert Waller said:

I have just noticed that in fact there is already a profile and thread for this seat.
In my defence I would say that it had not been removed from John’s list of outstanding seats.
Anyway, in the spirit of choice ....

londonseal80 's effort must have slipped passed without my noticing.  I don't log in every day and it's possible to miss when others don't comment. 

Perhaps AdminSTB could merge the two threads.

[AdminSTB]

Nov 28, 2020 7:14:13 GMT John Chanin said:

Nov 27, 2020 22:11:19 GMT Robert Waller said:

I have just noticed that in fact there is already a profile and thread for this seat.
In my defence I would say that it had not been removed from John’s list of outstanding seats.
Anyway, in the spirit of choice ....

londonseal80 's effort must have slipped passed without my noticing.  I don't log in every day and it's possible to miss when others don't comment. 

Perhaps AdminSTB could merge the two threads.

The two threads have now been merged.

[Robert Waller]

Thank you for merging the threads.

I do apologise for any duplication. As explained above, I completely missed Londonseal's valued contribution and my effort was and is in no way meant as any kind of disparagement.

[londonseal80]

Nov 28, 2020 7:14:13 GMT John Chanin said:

Nov 27, 2020 22:11:19 GMT Robert Waller said:

I have just noticed that in fact there is already a profile and thread for this seat.
In my defence I would say that it had not been removed from John’s list of outstanding seats.
Anyway, in the spirit of choice ....

londonseal80 's effort must have slipped passed without my noticing.  I don't log in every day and it's possible to miss when others don't comment. 

Perhaps AdminSTB could merge the two threads.

No worries my contributions have been both Sutton seats and Epsom and Ewell. Wanted to do other SW London seats like Mitcham and Morden, Wimbledon etc but was beaten to it.

[Pete Whitehead]

Alone of the London boroughs, Sutton is subject to no meaningful boundary changes, both seats surviving intact and with only a realignment with new ward boundaries which transfers about 200 voters net from Sutton & Cheam to Carshalton & Wallington.
A handful of voters move in the opposite direction and overall the effect will be to increase the Conservative majority in this seat by a minuscule amount. Notional results for these seats would not be meaningful or worthwhile.

[graham]

In the mid-1970s this seat was a Tory/Labour marginal. Following the boundary changes which took effect for the February 1974 election, Robert Carr moved from the former Mitcham seat he had represented since 1950. He was thought to be at some risk following Labour's success at the 1973 GLC election , but survived with a comfortable majority of circa 5700 - though that declined to 3600 at the October election the same year. The Alliance gained second place in 1983 and managed to hang on to that position thereafter, and this enabled the LDs to mount a successful campaign in 1997 to win the seat despite a substantial Labour vote that year. Later elections will have seen a great deal of Anti-Tory tactical voting by former Labour voters.
I do wonder whether Tom Brake's defeat in 2019 - and his decision not to stand again - might lead to significant unwinding of the tactical Labour vote. Is there the potential for Labour to seek to recover its former strength here? The recent precedent pf Porsmouth South comes to mind.

[batman]

you mean the tactical Liberal Democrat vote. I'd say that in the context of a parliamentary election where the Lib Dems are bound to fight a much stronger campaign than Labour in what is a major target seat for them (and not for Labour) the potential is extremely limited, despite the modest but useful Labour gains at last year's local elections.

[graham]

May 29, 2023 19:45:43 GMT batman said:

you mean the tactical Liberal Democrat vote. I'd say that in the context of a parliamentary election where the Lib Dems are bound to fight a much stronger campaign than Labour in what is a major target seat for them (and not for Labour) the potential is extremely limited, despite the modest but useful Labour gains at last year's local elections.

I was referring to Labour voters supporting the LDs on a tactical basis  - which had been evident since 1983 but particularly post 1997 when the LDs won the seat for the first time. Now that the seat has been lost - and with a new LD candidate - I will not be surprised to see a Labour recovery in a seat where the headline figures of recent elections understate the size of the underlying Labour vote.

[Merseymike]

May 29, 2023 19:59:33 GMT graham said:

May 29, 2023 19:45:43 GMT batman said:

you mean the tactical Liberal Democrat vote. I'd say that in the context of a parliamentary election where the Lib Dems are bound to fight a much stronger campaign than Labour in what is a major target seat for them (and not for Labour) the potential is extremely limited, despite the modest but useful Labour gains at last year's local elections.

I was referring to Labour voters supporting the LDs on a tactical basis  - which had been evident since 1983 but particularly post 1997 when the LDs won the seat for the first time. Now that the seat has been lost - and with a new LD candidate - I will not be surprised to see a Labour recovery in a seat where the headline figures of recent elections understate the size of the underlying Labour vote.

Where are Labour voters given that Carshalton and Wallington still not the third parties? I suppose it's a possibility - but why or what?

[graham]

Focal Data MRP survey for this seat has - Lab 28.0% Con 24.2% LD 19.4 Ref 5.0% Grn 4.2% Don't Know 18.1%

[jakegb]

Could be quite an interesting battleground here (+ in nearby SW London seats) - wouldn't rule out Tories hanging on here (if Labour + the Lib Dems don't use their resources efficiently and end up targeting the wrong places). 

[batman]

Labour won't be fighting a major campaign here despite this poll. The LDs will continue to keep the lion's share of the anti-Tory vote.

[graham]

Jun 8, 2023 15:38:59 GMT batman said:

Labour won't be fighting a major campaign here despite this poll. The LDs will continue to keep the lion's share of the anti-Tory vote.

When an existing LD MP - or former MP - leaves the scene it can have a significant effect in that the personal vote built up over years often fails to transfer to a new candidate. Berwick upon Tweed provides a good example of this with LD support falling away sharply since Alan Beith's retirement. Richard Wainwright's popularity in Colne Valley was not transferred to his successors. Ditto Norman Lamb in North Norfolk.

Going back over the years, Eric Lubbock only narrowly lost Orpington in 1970 by 1,500 or so votes. Despite the Liberal surge at the February 1974 election , the party failed to win back the seat - indeed the Tory majority more than doubled and increased further at the October 1974 election.

I expect the Greens in Brighton Pavilion to lose most of the personal vote acquired by Caroline Lucas.

Tom Brake's personal vote was sizeable , and it will be interesting to see the impact of his withdrawal in 2024.

[finsobruce]

Jun 8, 2023 16:33:54 GMT graham said:

Jun 8, 2023 15:38:59 GMT batman said:

Labour won't be fighting a major campaign here despite this poll. The LDs will continue to keep the lion's share of the anti-Tory vote.

When an existing LD MP - or former MP - leaves the scene it can have a significant effect in that the personal vote built up over years often fails to transfer to a new candidate. Berwick upon Tweed provides a good example of this with LD support falling away sharply since Alan Beith's retirement. Richard Wainwright's popularity in Colne Valley was not transferred to his successors. Ditto Norman Lamb in North Norfolk.

Going back over the years, Eric Lubbock only narrowly lost Orpington in 1970 by 1,500 or so votes. Despite the Liberal surge at the February 1974 election , the party failed to win back the seat - indeed the Tory majority more than doubled and increased further at the October 1974 election.

I expect the Greens in Brighton Pavilion to lose most of the personal vote acquired by Caroline Lucas.

Tom Brake's personal vote was sizeable , and it will be interesting to see the impact of his withdrawal in 2024.

The Lib Dem vote in Orpington has sunk as low as 6.6% (2017). Nobody, I think, denies that Lib Dems by election gains historically wither on the vine, but sometimes it takes a very long time.

I think the difference will be that BP is the Green's only seat and all effort will be concentrated there to try and keep it. Increased Green activism and success in local elections will mean this can probably be done without unduly affecting campaigns elsewhere.

[graham]

Jun 8, 2023 16:48:18 GMT finsobruce said:

Jun 8, 2023 16:33:54 GMT graham said:

When an existing LD MP - or former MP - leaves the scene it can have a significant effect in that the personal vote built up over years often fails to transfer to a new candidate. Berwick upon Tweed provides a good example of this with LD support falling away sharply since Alan Beith's retirement. Richard Wainwright's popularity in Colne Valley was not transferred to his successors. Ditto Norman Lamb in North Norfolk.

Going back over the years, Eric Lubbock only narrowly lost Orpington in 1970 by 1,500 or so votes. Despite the Liberal surge at the February 1974 election , the party failed to win back the seat - indeed the Tory majority more than doubled and increased further at the October 1974 election.

I expect the Greens in Brighton Pavilion to lose most of the personal vote acquired by Caroline Lucas.

Tom Brake's personal vote was sizeable , and it will be interesting to see the impact of his withdrawal in 2024.

The Lib Dem vote in Orpington has sunk as low as 6.6% (2017). Nobody, I think, denies that Lib Dems by election gains historically wither on the vine, but sometimes it takes a very long time.

I think the difference will be that BP is the Green's only seat and all effort will be concentrated there to try and keep it. Increased Green activism and success in local elections will mean this can probably be done without unduly affecting campaigns elsewhere.

The Greens had a poor result in Brighton at this year's Local Elections - and that may have influenced Caroline Lucas in her decision to stand down.