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Post by finsobruce on Jun 8, 2023 17:27:15 GMT
The Lib Dem vote in Orpington has sunk as low as 6.6% (2017). Nobody, I think, denies that Lib Dems by election gains historically wither on the vine, but sometimes it takes a very long time.
I think the difference will be that BP is the Green's only seat and all effort will be concentrated there to try and keep it. Increased Green activism and success in local elections will mean this can probably be done without unduly affecting campaigns elsewhere.
The Greens had a poor result in Brighton at this year's Local Elections - and that may have influenced Caroline Lucas in her decision to stand down. I had noticed that and delightful it was too, but I think that there is, as we are always saying on here, a considerable difference between local council voting and general election voting. Brighton is no exception, even if the reasons are different to those found elsewhere. The biggest factor will be that Lucas is such a totemic figure and replacing her as Green candidate will be a tall order. Not impossible, but a tall order.
EDIT: possibly posts should be moved to BP thread?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2023 10:08:05 GMT
It would be quite possible for the LibDems to win this (and maybe also Wimbledon) next time even if their vote share dropped slightly on 2019 due to Labour advancing - because the Tories fall by quite a bit more (I think there were a couple of instances of this in 1997)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 9, 2023 10:23:00 GMT
Isle of Wight, Portsmouth South, Somerton & Frome, Torbay.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 9, 2023 10:36:33 GMT
It would be quite possible for the LibDems to win this (and maybe also Wimbledon) next time even if their vote share dropped slightly on 2019 due to Labour advancing - because the Tories fall by quite a bit more (I think there were a couple of instances of this in 1997) It depends on the extent of the LD decline. Were their vote share to fall back to circa 30% with Labour recovering to circa 25% a Tory hold would be very likely. Labour needs a repeat of what happened in Portsmouth South to become competitive here again.However, in the now hypothetical scenario of a straight Tory v Labour contest, Labour's prospects here would be quite good - indeed better than in the same straight fight scenario in Wimbledon.
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