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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 6, 2020 19:27:32 GMT
Anyone working on this or should I go ahead?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 23, 2020 12:52:13 GMT
As no one else seems to want to do this interesting constituency, I intend to make it the next on my own list ... in preparation. Hilly. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 23, 2020 16:53:05 GMT
Hazel Grove is one of the longest standing Conservative versus Liberal (Democrat) marginal constituencies. Since its creation before the February 1974 election it has been won by the Tories eight times, and they have lost on five occasions – and it might be added that the seat was carved out of the lion’s share of the former oversized Cheadle seat, which had itself elected the Liberal Michael Winstanley in 1966. Dr Winstanley clearly thought the Hazel Grove section was the better for his party, and returned to the Commons in its inaugural contest February 1974.
Hazel Grove was one of the two Liberal losses in the second general election of 1974, and it was then held by the courtly Tom Arnold for the Conservatives in the next five elections, all by perilously small majorities except for 1979. Though still only fifty years of age, Arnold retired before the 1997 disaster for his party, when Andrew Stunell gained it by over 11,000. Stunell himself was also not defeated, and the candidate who replaced him, Lisa Smart, was the one beaten when the seat returned to Conservative allegiance in 2015. WiIliam Wragg then won three times in four years, his majority slightly dropping each time – 6,000, 5,000, 4,000 … Hazel Grove must still be ranked as a top grade Liberal Democrat target, especially as they still hold all of the wards within it on Stockport borough council.
The seat consists of part of the outermost ring of Greater Manchester and indeed of the Stockport metropolitan borough – its south eastern periphery towards Macclesfield in Cheshire and High Peak in Derbyshire. This is not a very ‘metropolitan’ area and its tone is far from ‘big city’ – for example there was real resentment here when the whole of Greater Manchester was given Tier 3 status for Covid restrictions in late 2020. Hazel Grove itself is ‘outer suburban’, situated in commuting territory on the rail line in from Buxton to Manchester. Bredbury and Romiley are slightly more down-market suburbs with some characteristics of small independent communities. Marple definitely has the feel of separate small town, even with some bohemian tendencies, a little like Hebden Bridge in the Calder Valley. There is also one ward which could be described as part of the town of Stockport itself, Offerton.
All elected Liberal Democrat councillors by large or comfortable margins in the most recent local elections in May 2019, including Offerton – as they all did in 2018. To find a solitary Conservative win, one has to go back to May 2016 when the Liberal Democrats lost Marple South by a mere 23 votes. Why, then, have the Conservatives won a hat trick of victories in the last three contests for representation in the Commons? A number of reasons can be adduced. In 2015 Stunell’s personal vote (usually significant in Liberal/LD held seats) disappeared and the party was punished for its status as junior coalition member; tactical voting was therefore reduced as Labour’s share went up by 5%, almost as much as the Conservative’s did. In 2017 the Labour vote went up again, and Wragg benefited from the absence of a UKIP candidate in an election affected by the post referendum EU issue. 2019 was even more dominated by ‘Brexit’, and in a contest confined to the three main parties Wragg’s 49% share mobilized most of the estimated 52% leave vote in Hazel Grove. That ‘leave’ majority should not be too much of a surprise considering the seat’s demographics. This is one of the constituencies with a much higher than average proportion born in England (93.7%) and with a UK passport (83.4%, in the top fifty). It is also in the top decile for one person pensioner households and owner-occupation. There are therefore solid conservative – and Conservative – characteristics to counterbalance the long local Liberal tradition.
Nevertheless, as time passes and the impact of EU exit issues fade, it is likely that the Liberal Democrat challenge will, if anything, strengthen. It is well seated now in over half a century of contention at parliamentary level and more than that, even dominance, in the municipal arena. Major boundary changes seem unlikely given the location on the edge of Greater Manchester, an edge many in the seat feel, in the sense of an ambivalence about the ties to that huge unit – and not just in Covid times. The era of close battles, and of changes of victor, in Hazel Grove are unlikely to be over.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 21.1% 85/650
Owner-occupied 77.1% 37/650
Private rented 8.6% 626/650
Social rented 12.6% 459/650
White 96.7% 254/650
Black 0.4% 433/650
Asian 1.5% 404/650
Managerial & professional 35.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 22.2%
Degree level 27.9% 243/650
No qualifications 21.1% 403/650
Students 6.0% 475/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 77.6% 24/573
Private rented 10.8% 570/573
Social rented 11.8% 431/573
White 94.6%
Black 0.6%
Asian 2.5%
Managerial & professional 38.3% 141/573
Routine & Semi-routine 20.2% 412/573
Degree level 34.5% 215/573
No qualifications 15.7% 395/573
General Election 2019: Hazel Grove
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative William Wragg 21,592 48.8 +3.3
Liberal Democrats Lisa Smart 17,169 38.8 +5.9
Labour Tony Wilson 5,508 12.4 -8.1
C Majority 4,423 10.0 -2.0
Turnout 44,269 67.6 -2.3
Conservative hold
Swing 1.3 Conservative to Lib Dem
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Post by greenhert on Nov 23, 2020 17:33:37 GMT
Actually since its creation the Conservatives have won Hazel Grove eight times and the Liberals/Liberal Democrats have won it five times.
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 23, 2020 18:00:15 GMT
Actually since its creation the Conservatives have won Hazel Grove eight times and the Liberals/Liberal Democrats have won it five times. Thank you for the correction, which I shall incorporate. Oddly I had done the sums and came up with those figures then for some reason (Incipient senility?) I typed different numbers. |
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,655
Member is Online
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 23, 2020 18:09:26 GMT
According to 192.com there are 5 people in the UK with the name Hazel Grove. I wonder if there is any constituency that beats that (there appears to be one person called Dudley North).
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 23, 2020 18:14:52 GMT
According to 192.com there are 5 people in the UK with the name Hazel Grove. I wonder if there is any constituency that beat that (there appears to be one person called Dudley North). I've found two people apparently called Wood Green!  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 23, 2020 19:26:44 GMT
According to 192.com there are 5 people in the UK with the name Hazel Grove. I wonder if there is any constituency that beats that (there appears to be one person called Dudley North). Tyrone West is a good bet Also maybe Don Valley (and his wife Amber) |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 23, 2020 19:31:04 GMT
According to 192.com there are 5 people in the UK with the name Hazel Grove. I wonder if there is any constituency that beats that (there appears to be one person called Dudley North). Tyrone West is a good bet Also maybe Don Valley (and his wife Amber) At least five Tyrone Wests, and one Donald Valley. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 24, 2020 10:46:16 GMT
According to 192.com there are 5 people in the UK with the name Hazel Grove. I wonder if there is any constituency that beats that (there appears to be one person called Dudley North). Tyrone West is a good bet Also maybe Don Valley (and his wife Amber) It's time for that classic game: British constituency or American sport broadcaster? "Welcome to the show, folks, Meon Valley here, joining me today is former Sportsball World Bowl champion York Outer III". |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 24, 2020 10:52:18 GMT
Tyrone West is a good bet Also maybe Don Valley (and his wife Amber) It's time for that classic game: British constituency or American sport broadcaster? "Welcome to the show, folks, Meon Valley here, joining me today is former Sportsball World Bowl champion York Outer III". "But first the news on the hour, read for us by Aldridge Brownhills" |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 24, 2020 11:37:15 GMT
It's time for that classic game: British constituency or American sport broadcaster? "Welcome to the show, folks, Meon Valley here, joining me today is former Sportsball World Bowl champion York Outer III". "But first the news on the hour, read for us by Aldridge Brownhills" "And presenting the weather, Sheffield Heeley." |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 24, 2020 11:55:59 GMT
"But first the news on the hour, read for us by Aldridge Brownhills" "And presenting the weather, Sheffield Heeley." Followed by the Sports Roundup with Morley Outwood. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 24, 2020 11:59:21 GMT
"And presenting the weather, Sheffield Heeley." Followed by the Sports Roundup with Morley Outwood. Then an edition of Crimewatch with special reporter Brigg Goole. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 24, 2020 13:06:00 GMT
Tyrone West is a good bet Also maybe Don Valley (and his wife Amber) It's time for that classic game: British constituency or American sport broadcaster? "Welcome to the show, folks, Meon Valley here, joining me today is former Sportsball World Bowl champion York Outer III". "And pitchside is Ynys Mon" (My 3 nephews have Mon as a surname, though none has Ynys as a forename.) |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 24, 2020 13:30:15 GMT
It's time for that classic game: British constituency or American sport broadcaster? "Welcome to the show, folks, Meon Valley here, joining me today is former Sportsball World Bowl champion York Outer III". "And pitchside is Ynys Mon" (My 3 nephews have Mon as a surname, though none has Ynys as a forename.) My dad has an occasional fantasy of introducing a TV programme called The Melton Mowbray Show. "And here's your host, Melton Mowbray!" |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 24, 2020 14:31:44 GMT
It's time for that classic game: British constituency or American sport broadcaster? "Welcome to the show, folks, Meon Valley here, joining me today is former Sportsball World Bowl champion York Outer III". "And pitchside is Ynys Mon" (My 3 nephews have Mon as a surname, though none has Ynys as a forename.) No men are islands sufficient to their uncle. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Nov 28, 2020 17:58:06 GMT
Nobody has touted the mononymous Gordon?
Not the same, but the Labour candidate in Dudley (North I think) had the surname Dudley. Sadly voters were unconvinced with "Dudley for Dudley" and they lost massively.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Feb 17, 2021 23:50:13 GMT
There is a an Australian speedway rider called Dakota North if we are extending this to US electoral divisions?
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 18, 2021 10:26:18 GMT
There are constituencies in Botswana called Kanye North and Kanye South.
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