The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 25, 2020 11:48:09 GMT
One final thought, how much of this was down to Trump? If the suburbs haven't swung against the GOP as much as 2018 suggested and there is some reversion to the status quo then the Democrats situation could be much worse that it first appears Though the "down to Trump" thing can maybe be argued both ways - for instance are his gains amongst Hispanics guaranteed to stay with a more generic GOP candidate?
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Nov 25, 2020 11:56:40 GMT
Assuming that 2024 will be Biden v Trump rerun, I'm worried that it will make the primary season a very boring affair. Add that to the pile of reasons Trump should be incarcerated.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 25, 2020 11:58:15 GMT
Well, that's a rather big assumption even now. And hypothetical polls on this before the incumbent POTUS has actually left office are even less reliable than usual.
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pl
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Post by pl on Nov 25, 2020 12:42:14 GMT
Assuming that 2024 will be Biden v Trump rerun That's a big assumption! An 82 year old v a 78 year old. Statistically, the changes of them both being in suitable shape for a presidential run in four years is not very high. Surely at some point a new generation of politicians has to come through. Looking at some of Biden's cabinet/administration picks, he seems to be trawling the Clinton and Obama years for retreads. Seriously! Some new blood please. Look at the average age of UK cabinets for a favourable comparison.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 25, 2020 15:24:39 GMT
Assuming that 2024 will be Biden v Trump rerun That's a big assumption! An 82 year old v a 78 year old. Statistically, the changes of them both being in suitable shape for a presidential run in four years is not very high. Surely at some point a new generation of politicians has to come through. Looking at some of Biden's cabinet/administration picks, he seems to be trawling the Clinton and Obama years for retreads. Seriously! Some new blood please. Look at the average age of UK cabinets for a favourable comparison. I read that some people who worked in his and associated campaigns were rather cross about this given that the old guard allegedly didn't pull their weight in the general and most certainly didn't rally behind Biden in the primary until they had no other choice but Sanders.
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Post by ibfc on Nov 26, 2020 8:30:58 GMT
IMO it is pretty clear Trump will win the nomination if he’s not in jail The chance he goes to jail has to be pretty low.
His biggest barrier remains his age and likely poor health come 2024. This campaign was a bit of a struggle for him and it really affected his mood throughout the campaign.
Don Jr. is clearly waiting in the wings and already has strong support among Trump supporters.
There’s no reason as of now to think Trump won’t be healthy in 24. 78 as we just saw is an age you can run for President. Personally don’t think Don Jr would be able to do well. His current support is probably from hardcore Trumpsters who think Trump won’t be available. As an aside, Lara Trump has apparently filed to run for NC Senate in 22. Maybe that’s where the family is heading.
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 26, 2020 8:44:18 GMT
The chance he goes to jail has to be pretty low.
His biggest barrier remains his age and likely poor health come 2024. This campaign was a bit of a struggle for him and it really affected his mood throughout the campaign.
Don Jr. is clearly waiting in the wings and already has strong support among Trump supporters.
There’s no reason as of now to think Trump won’t be healthy in 24. 78 as we just saw is an age you can run for President. Personally don’t think Don Jr would be able to do well. His current support is probably from hardcore Trumpsters who think Trump won’t be available. As an aside, Lara Trump has apparently filed to run for NC Senate in 22. Maybe that’s where the family is heading.
I wouldn't be too sure about that. Of course some 78 year olds are fit and healthy enough, but I imagine most would find it very difficult to run a vigorous 12+ month campaign. You can't just say that Biden did it so Trump can too.
Looking at Trump, he...
a) is clinically obese. b) does rather little exercise (being driven around in a golf cart doesn't count). c) has a poor diet consisting of foods with high fat/ saturated fat content and too little of the good stuff.
In Trump's favour...
d) both of his parents died at advanced ages (though both were in poor health in their later years). e) he doesn't smoke or drink alcohol.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 26, 2020 15:45:35 GMT
On the topic of Trump’s health or otherwise, he appears to be a very angry shouty man. On that basis I would bet on Biden outliving him.
Is there much evidence that those who do not drink alcohol live longer once the George Best-type binge drinkers are eliminated?
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 26, 2020 15:50:27 GMT
On the topic of Trump’s health or otherwise, he appears to be a very angry shouty man. On that basis I would bet on Biden outliving him. Is there much evidence that those who do not drink alcohol live longer once the George Best-type binge drinkers are eliminated? They don't live longer. It just feels longer.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 26, 2020 17:06:58 GMT
Now that the dust has (almost) settled, I would like to look ahead the next and subsequent elections. The electoral college is likely to prove a problem for the Democrats in future elections unless dramatic changes occur in either Texas or Florida. The popular vote is strongly trending to the Democrats. Of the last eight Presidential elections, the Republicans have had only one win in the popular vote – G W Bush in 2008 – yet they have won three of the contests. Biden is leading by over 6 million votes and rising. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.8 million yet lost the electoral college. Al Gore won the popular vote by over half a million but was edged out in the electoral college. Biden’s margin the popular vote has only been exceeded twice – the current count – in the period considered by Bill Clinton in 1996 and by Obama in 2008. Biden’s win was based on taking back three of the Rustbelt States – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – with Arizona and Georgia as the bonus. There appears to be a perception that these three Rustbelt States, once heavily Democrat are slipping towards the Republicans because of the industrial decline and outmigration. Ostensibly this appears to be true even though Biden won all three back after the loss in 2016 that put Trump in the White House. The performance by Biden in 2020 and certainly Clinton in 2016, certainly come nowhere near that of Obama in 2008 and even in 2012. In 2008 Obama took MI by 16.5%, PA by 10.3% and WI by 13.9%. This had slipped to winning margins of 7.5%, 5.3%, and 6.9% respectively. Clinton lost them by 0.2%, 0.7%, and 0.8%. Biden took the States back (MI 2.8%, PA 1.2% and WI 0.6%) this year. The current results are not that much different from 2004 (MI 3.4%, PA 2.4%, WI 0.2%). That is not a great deal different to 2000 (MI 5.1%, PA 4.2%, WI 0.2%). Bill Clinton won all three States comfortably in 1996 and 1992 but then George HW Bush won MI by 7.9% and PA by 2.3% in 1988 and Reagan swept the board in 1984 (MI 19%, PA 7.3%, WI 9.2%). All three of the Rustbelt States are traditional noted to swing with the prevailing tide. Reagan in 1984, Nixon in 1972, Johnson in 1964, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 all won the three States in their landslide wins. In that they have been remarkably stable when compared States the California, the Deep South and New England which have completely inverted over this time scale. It is by no means certain that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are going to flip to the Republicans any time soon. We cannot totally rule this out. In 2008, Obama won all three plus Indiana, and Ohio (not to mention Iowa and Missouri for good measure). IN and OH now look out of reach for the Democrats for now. If MI, PA, WI do flip the Democrats will need to win additional states in the South or West to compensate. Otherwise we could end up with another structural mismatch between the popular vote and the Electoral College. Sorry did you mean G W Bush in 2004? Not 2008.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2020 17:33:25 GMT
Now that the dust has (almost) settled, I would like to look ahead the next and subsequent elections. The electoral college is likely to prove a problem for the Democrats in future elections unless dramatic changes occur in either Texas or Florida. The popular vote is strongly trending to the Democrats. Of the last eight Presidential elections, the Republicans have had only one win in the popular vote – G W Bush in 2008 – yet they have won three of the contests. Biden is leading by over 6 million votes and rising. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.8 million yet lost the electoral college. Al Gore won the popular vote by over half a million but was edged out in the electoral college. Biden’s margin the popular vote has only been exceeded twice – the current count – in the period considered by Bill Clinton in 1996 and by Obama in 2008. Biden’s win was based on taking back three of the Rustbelt States – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – with Arizona and Georgia as the bonus. There appears to be a perception that these three Rustbelt States, once heavily Democrat are slipping towards the Republicans because of the industrial decline and outmigration. Ostensibly this appears to be true even though Biden won all three back after the loss in 2016 that put Trump in the White House. The performance by Biden in 2020 and certainly Clinton in 2016, certainly come nowhere near that of Obama in 2008 and even in 2012. In 2008 Obama took MI by 16.5%, PA by 10.3% and WI by 13.9%. This had slipped to winning margins of 7.5%, 5.3%, and 6.9% respectively. Clinton lost them by 0.2%, 0.7%, and 0.8%. Biden took the States back (MI 2.8%, PA 1.2% and WI 0.6%) this year. The current results are not that much different from 2004 (MI 3.4%, PA 2.4%, WI 0.2%). That is not a great deal different to 2000 (MI 5.1%, PA 4.2%, WI 0.2%). Bill Clinton won all three States comfortably in 1996 and 1992 but then George HW Bush won MI by 7.9% and PA by 2.3% in 1988 and Reagan swept the board in 1984 (MI 19%, PA 7.3%, WI 9.2%). All three of the Rustbelt States are traditional noted to swing with the prevailing tide. Reagan in 1984, Nixon in 1972, Johnson in 1964, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 all won the three States in their landslide wins. In that they have been remarkably stable when compared States the California, the Deep South and New England which have completely inverted over this time scale. It is by no means certain that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are going to flip to the Republicans any time soon. We cannot totally rule this out. In 2008, Obama won all three plus Indiana, and Ohio (not to mention Iowa and Missouri for good measure). IN and OH now look out of reach for the Democrats for now. If MI, PA, WI do flip the Democrats will need to win additional states in the South or West to compensate. Otherwise we could end up with another structural mismatch between the popular vote and the Electoral College. Wisconsin barely went to Biden despite Trump in 2016 being the first Republican to win that state since 1984.
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Post by therealriga on Nov 26, 2020 17:49:55 GMT
There’s no reason as of now to think Trump won’t be healthy in 24. 78 as we just saw is an age you can run for President. I'm not so sure that we did see that. Due to the obvious Pandemic factor, this campaign was very different, with Biden running a much more low key campaign from "the bunker." How would he have done in a more traditional campaign where he had to criss cross the country, speaking at mass events etc? Would fatigue have set in and become noticeable, resulting in unforced errors as his energy levels were sapped? Probably he would have done ok but we'll never know and I certainly wouldn't draw any conclusions from this very unusual year.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 26, 2020 18:08:00 GMT
Now that the dust has (almost) settled, I would like to look ahead the next and subsequent elections. The electoral college is likely to prove a problem for the Democrats in future elections unless dramatic changes occur in either Texas or Florida. The popular vote is strongly trending to the Democrats. Of the last eight Presidential elections, the Republicans have had only one win in the popular vote – G W Bush in 2008 – yet they have won three of the contests. Biden is leading by over 6 million votes and rising. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.8 million yet lost the electoral college. Al Gore won the popular vote by over half a million but was edged out in the electoral college. Biden’s margin the popular vote has only been exceeded twice – the current count – in the period considered by Bill Clinton in 1996 and by Obama in 2008. Biden’s win was based on taking back three of the Rustbelt States – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – with Arizona and Georgia as the bonus. There appears to be a perception that these three Rustbelt States, once heavily Democrat are slipping towards the Republicans because of the industrial decline and outmigration. Ostensibly this appears to be true even though Biden won all three back after the loss in 2016 that put Trump in the White House. The performance by Biden in 2020 and certainly Clinton in 2016, certainly come nowhere near that of Obama in 2008 and even in 2012. In 2008 Obama took MI by 16.5%, PA by 10.3% and WI by 13.9%. This had slipped to winning margins of 7.5%, 5.3%, and 6.9% respectively. Clinton lost them by 0.2%, 0.7%, and 0.8%. Biden took the States back (MI 2.8%, PA 1.2% and WI 0.6%) this year. The current results are not that much different from 2004 (MI 3.4%, PA 2.4%, WI 0.2%). That is not a great deal different to 2000 (MI 5.1%, PA 4.2%, WI 0.2%). Bill Clinton won all three States comfortably in 1996 and 1992 but then George HW Bush won MI by 7.9% and PA by 2.3% in 1988 and Reagan swept the board in 1984 (MI 19%, PA 7.3%, WI 9.2%). All three of the Rustbelt States are traditional noted to swing with the prevailing tide. Reagan in 1984, Nixon in 1972, Johnson in 1964, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 all won the three States in their landslide wins. In that they have been remarkably stable when compared States the California, the Deep South and New England which have completely inverted over this time scale. It is by no means certain that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are going to flip to the Republicans any time soon. We cannot totally rule this out. In 2008, Obama won all three plus Indiana, and Ohio (not to mention Iowa and Missouri for good measure). IN and OH now look out of reach for the Democrats for now. If MI, PA, WI do flip the Democrats will need to win additional states in the South or West to compensate. Otherwise we could end up with another structural mismatch between the popular vote and the Electoral College. Sorry did you mean G W Bush in 2004? Not 2008. Yes it was a typo.
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 26, 2020 18:56:49 GMT
I'm not so sure that we did see that. Due to the obvious Pandemic factor, this campaign was very different, with Biden running a much more low key campaign from "the bunker." How would he have done in a more traditional campaign where he had to criss cross the country, speaking at mass events etc? Would fatigue have set in and become noticeable, resulting in unforced errors as his energy levels were sapped? Probably he would have done ok but we'll never know and I certainly wouldn't draw any conclusions from this very unusual year. was about to make that very point. Covid made this election campaign unique (hopefully never to be seen again). Biden would have been really pushed to do a normal campaign I think.
I think there will be a Trump on the GOP ticket in 2024 - just not sure who. Presumably will be running against Harris, so Harris v Ivanka might be ...interesting. Both vying for the first female POTUS role!!
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Post by ibfc on Nov 27, 2020 2:16:09 GMT
Obviously Trump can fall ill but at least at this stage, there’s no sign of it. And my basic point was that if he’s able to run, he will run and he will get the nomination.
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Post by ibfc on Nov 27, 2020 2:16:42 GMT
I'm not so sure that we did see that. Due to the obvious Pandemic factor, this campaign was very different, with Biden running a much more low key campaign from "the bunker." How would he have done in a more traditional campaign where he had to criss cross the country, speaking at mass events etc? Would fatigue have set in and become noticeable, resulting in unforced errors as his energy levels were sapped? Probably he would have done ok but we'll never know and I certainly wouldn't draw any conclusions from this very unusual year. was about to make that very point. Covid made this election campaign unique (hopefully never to be seen again). Biden would have been really pushed to do a normal campaign I think.
I think there will be a Trump on the GOP ticket in 2024 - just not sure who. Presumably will be running against Harris, so Harris v Ivanka might be ...interesting. Both vying for the first female POTUS role!!
Ivanka won’t win the primary.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 27, 2020 6:34:15 GMT
The chance he goes to jail has to be pretty low.
His biggest barrier remains his age and likely poor health come 2024. This campaign was a bit of a struggle for him and it really affected his mood throughout the campaign.
Don Jr. is clearly waiting in the wings and already has strong support among Trump supporters.
There’s no reason as of now to think Trump won’t be healthy in 24. 78 as we just saw is an age you can run for President. Personally don’t think Don Jr would be able to do well. His current support is probably from hardcore Trumpsters who think Trump won’t be available. As an aside, Lara Trump has apparently filed to run for NC Senate in 22. Maybe that’s where the family is heading. First Female President?
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Post by therealriga on Nov 27, 2020 22:19:31 GMT
I'd go against consensus and say that Trump won't be on the ballot in 2024 and it's unlikely any of his family will either. (Feel free to quote me here in early 2024 if I'm wrong.) When the dust settles it will start to sink in that Trump significantly underperformed the GOP as a whole and is therefore a liability. It's also unclear what direction the party will go in during the 3 years ahead but what looks a cert now will change after the 2022 midterms and new contenders for the crown will replace Trump who will come to be seen as yesterday's man. I also doubt his health will be up to it.
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Nov 27, 2020 22:42:47 GMT
I'm going to double down on my big assumption. Feel free to quote me, also. I think it will be former President Donald Trump versus Joe Biden in 2024.
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Post by therealriga on Nov 27, 2020 23:35:27 GMT
I'm going to double down on my big assumption. Feel free to quote me, also. I think it will be former President Donald Trump versus Joe Biden in 2024. I'll also double down and say that Biden won't be on the ballot in 2024 either. I'll probably be wrong but let's see.
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