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Post by arnieg on Nov 14, 2020 8:09:36 GMT
Why is the number of House representatives set at 435 btw? To avoid ongoing arguments over whether the number should be increased (with states which had suffered relative population declines maintaining their representation) or remain the same, with such states losing representation to population growth areas. The key legislation was this: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reapportionment_Act_of_1929Is that our old friend d'hondt being used (after each state gets its guaranteed seat)? |
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Post by therealriga on Nov 14, 2020 11:07:17 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 17, 2020 16:11:17 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 17, 2020 16:21:08 GMT
which Trump?  or are they covering all bases there |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 17, 2020 16:22:36 GMT
if I were to have a sneaky 50p bet right now I think Haley is a good shout. She's radical enough to not be seen as "mainstream GOP" (and supported Trump strongly whilst at the UN) yet isnt quite as, shall we say, unhinged as The Donald!
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 17, 2020 16:26:23 GMT
That's an impressive number for Romney. How many of those are likely to run? Cruz must fancy his chances on the basis of the runner-up rule.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 17, 2020 19:57:27 GMT
No mention of Sheriff Joe Arpaio?
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 18, 2020 7:44:02 GMT
That polling asks all voters. Amongst only the Republican subsample, Trump leads by a wider margin and Romney is much weaker.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 18, 2020 11:16:43 GMT
That's an impressive number for Romney. How many of those are likely to run? Cruz must fancy his chances on the basis of the runner-up rule. A fair bit of it must be name recognition, though. Its true he will "only" be the same age Biden is now in 2024, but I still wouldn't put any actual money on it. |
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Post by therealriga on Nov 20, 2020 18:50:44 GMT
I don't see your map. Is it the right link ? Sorry just saw this today. Don't know what happened with the map, so had another go. Here's one with a 51.6% Dem to 44.2% Rep balance: /photo/1 |
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 24, 2020 13:56:59 GMT
Interesting poll and solidifies the point that if Trump wants to run for 2024, he'll have a hell of a lot of support from primary voters and there will be little the establishment can do (as they also couldn't in 2016). ''Trump gets 53 percent of support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents for a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary, according to the poll of registered voters. Pence came in second at only 12 percent support. Donald Trump Jr. got the third-highest support at 8 percent, while other Republican figures, including Sens. Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney, and Nikki Haley each got less than 5 percent support.'' www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/poll-republicans-support-trump-2024-439757 |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 24, 2020 14:08:14 GMT
IMO it is pretty clear Trump will win the nomination if he’s not in jail
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 24, 2020 19:07:12 GMT
IMO it is pretty clear Trump will win the nomination if he’s not in jail The chance he goes to jail has to be pretty low.
His biggest barrier remains his age and likely poor health come 2024. This campaign was a bit of a struggle for him and it really affected his mood throughout the campaign.
Don Jr. is clearly waiting in the wings and already has strong support among Trump supporters.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 24, 2020 19:16:31 GMT
That's an impressive number for Romney. How many of those are likely to run? Cruz must fancy his chances on the basis of the runner-up rule. A fair bit of it must be name recognition, though. Its true he will "only" be the same age Biden is now in 2024, but I still wouldn't put any actual money on it. A lot will indeed be recognition. But, whatever one thinks of his politics, Romney has a track record in and out of politics that is much more impressive than the average, and (probably entirely accurately) is seen as a clean, fair dealer. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2020 19:50:30 GMT
IMO it is pretty clear Trump will win the nomination if he’s not in jail The chance he goes to jail has to be pretty low.
His biggest barrier remains his age and likely poor health come 2024. This campaign was a bit of a struggle for him and it really affected his mood throughout the campaign.
Don Jr. is clearly waiting in the wings and already has strong support among Trump supporters.
I also think the last few weeks haven't done him any favours. It gets the base fired up, not going to help with middle of the road GOP supporters who hold their noses when placing the cross, & will gain him nothing with the indies he needs. Still leaves him a few million short in the GE when the 'OMG, anyone but Trump' factor fires up the Dem vote. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 24, 2020 20:32:25 GMT
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 25, 2020 1:38:04 GMT
Now that the dust has (almost) settled, I would like to look ahead the next and subsequent elections.
The electoral college is likely to prove a problem for the Democrats in future elections unless dramatic changes occur in either Texas or Florida. The popular vote is strongly trending to the Democrats. Of the last eight Presidential elections, the Republicans have had only one win in the popular vote – G W Bush in 2008 – yet they have won three of the contests.
Biden is leading by over 6 million votes and rising. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.8 million yet lost the electoral college. Al Gore won the popular vote by over half a million but was edged out in the electoral college. Biden’s margin the popular vote has only been exceeded twice – the current count – in the period considered by Bill Clinton in 1996 and by Obama in 2008.
Biden’s win was based on taking back three of the Rustbelt States – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – with Arizona and Georgia as the bonus. There appears to be a perception that these three Rustbelt States, once heavily Democrat are slipping towards the Republicans because of the industrial decline and outmigration. Ostensibly this appears to be true even though Biden won all three back after the loss in 2016 that put Trump in the White House.
The performance by Biden in 2020 and certainly Clinton in 2016, certainly come nowhere near that of Obama in 2008 and even in 2012. In 2008 Obama took MI by 16.5%, PA by 10.3% and WI by 13.9%. This had slipped to winning margins of 7.5%, 5.3%, and 6.9% respectively. Clinton lost them by 0.2%, 0.7%, and 0.8%. Biden took the States back (MI 2.8%, PA 1.2% and WI 0.6%) this year.
The current results are not that much different from 2004 (MI 3.4%, PA 2.4%, WI 0.2%). That is not a great deal different to 2000 (MI 5.1%, PA 4.2%, WI 0.2%). Bill Clinton won all three States comfortably in 1996 and 1992 but then George HW Bush won MI by 7.9% and PA by 2.3% in 1988 and Reagan swept the board in 1984 (MI 19%, PA 7.3%, WI 9.2%).
All three of the Rustbelt States are traditional noted to swing with the prevailing tide. Reagan in 1984, Nixon in 1972, Johnson in 1964, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 all won the three States in their landslide wins. In that they have been remarkably stable when compared States the California, the Deep South and New England which have completely inverted over this time scale.
It is by no means certain that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are going to flip to the Republicans any time soon. We cannot totally rule this out. In 2008, Obama won all three plus Indiana, and Ohio (not to mention Iowa and Missouri for good measure). IN and OH now look out of reach for the Democrats for now. If MI, PA, WI do flip the Democrats will need to win additional states in the South or West to compensate. Otherwise we could end up with another structural mismatch between the popular vote and the Electoral College.
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Post by adlai52 on Nov 25, 2020 8:45:41 GMT
Now that the dust has (almost) settled, I would like to look ahead the next and subsequent elections. The electoral college is likely to prove a problem for the Democrats in future elections unless dramatic changes occur in either Texas or Florida. The popular vote is strongly trending to the Democrats. Of the last eight Presidential elections, the Republicans have had only one win in the popular vote – G W Bush in 2008 – yet they have won three of the contests. Biden is leading by over 6 million votes and rising. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.8 million yet lost the electoral college. Al Gore won the popular vote by over half a million but was edged out in the electoral college. Biden’s margin the popular vote has only been exceeded twice – the current count – in the period considered by Bill Clinton in 1996 and by Obama in 2008. Biden’s win was based on taking back three of the Rustbelt States – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – with Arizona and Georgia as the bonus. There appears to be a perception that these three Rustbelt States, once heavily Democrat are slipping towards the Republicans because of the industrial decline and outmigration. Ostensibly this appears to be true even though Biden won all three back after the loss in 2016 that put Trump in the White House. The performance by Biden in 2020 and certainly Clinton in 2016, certainly come nowhere near that of Obama in 2008 and even in 2012. In 2008 Obama took MI by 16.5%, PA by 10.3% and WI by 13.9%. This had slipped to winning margins of 7.5%, 5.3%, and 6.9% respectively. Clinton lost them by 0.2%, 0.7%, and 0.8%. Biden took the States back (MI 2.8%, PA 1.2% and WI 0.6%) this year. The current results are not that much different from 2004 (MI 3.4%, PA 2.4%, WI 0.2%). That is not a great deal different to 2000 (MI 5.1%, PA 4.2%, WI 0.2%). Bill Clinton won all three States comfortably in 1996 and 1992 but then George HW Bush won MI by 7.9% and PA by 2.3% in 1988 and Reagan swept the board in 1984 (MI 19%, PA 7.3%, WI 9.2%). All three of the Rustbelt States are traditional noted to swing with the prevailing tide. Reagan in 1984, Nixon in 1972, Johnson in 1964, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 all won the three States in their landslide wins. In that they have been remarkably stable when compared States the California, the Deep South and New England which have completely inverted over this time scale. It is by no means certain that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are going to flip to the Republicans any time soon. We cannot totally rule this out. In 2008, Obama won all three plus Indiana, and Ohio (not to mention Iowa and Missouri for good measure). IN and OH now look out of reach for the Democrats for now. If MI, PA, WI do flip the Democrats will need to win additional states in the South or West to compensate. Otherwise we could end up with another structural mismatch between the popular vote and the Electoral College. If your a Democrat the fear is that the Midwest slips away before the sunbelt comes into play and by sunbelt we really mean Texas. A competitive of even Democrat leaning Texas is the Democrats best insurance against a long term slide in the Midwest. If gains in Texas can be achieved at the same time as further inroads into Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona that gives the party more options. Previously you would have put Florida into the category of sunbelt targets for the Democrats, but a combination of an influx of conservative retirees and poor organization hobble the party in that state. Urban center likes Philadelphia and the Twin Cities give the Democrats some breathing room, plus Chicago probably locks down Illinois. One ominous sign from this month was the Democrat collapse in South Texas and down ballot disappointments across the sunbelt. It's no use making gains in suburban Texas and Arizona if these gains are offset by losses among Hispanic voters and Republicans wracking even bigger margins in rural and exurban areas. One final thought, how much of this was down to Trump? If the suburbs haven't swung against the GOP as much as 2018 suggested and there is some reversion to the status quo then the Democrats situation could be much worse that it first appears. NB: Although Obama did win Indiana in 2008, but came up just short in Missouri |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 25, 2020 10:07:23 GMT
Now that the dust has (almost) settled, I would like to look ahead the next and subsequent elections. The electoral college is likely to prove a problem for the Democrats in future elections unless dramatic changes occur in either Texas or Florida. The popular vote is strongly trending to the Democrats. Of the last eight Presidential elections, the Republicans have had only one win in the popular vote – G W Bush in 2008 – yet they have won three of the contests. Biden is leading by over 6 million votes and rising. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.8 million yet lost the electoral college. Al Gore won the popular vote by over half a million but was edged out in the electoral college. Biden’s margin the popular vote has only been exceeded twice – the current count – in the period considered by Bill Clinton in 1996 and by Obama in 2008. The Democrats need to stop doing the Jeremy Thorpe thing - as many votes as possible! - and do the Paddy Ashdown thing - as many seats as possible. They need to acknowledge what the rules of the game are and play by those rules. |
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Post by adlai52 on Nov 25, 2020 11:10:55 GMT
Now that the dust has (almost) settled, I would like to look ahead the next and subsequent elections. The electoral college is likely to prove a problem for the Democrats in future elections unless dramatic changes occur in either Texas or Florida. The popular vote is strongly trending to the Democrats. Of the last eight Presidential elections, the Republicans have had only one win in the popular vote – G W Bush in 2008 – yet they have won three of the contests. Biden is leading by over 6 million votes and rising. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.8 million yet lost the electoral college. Al Gore won the popular vote by over half a million but was edged out in the electoral college. Biden’s margin the popular vote has only been exceeded twice – the current count – in the period considered by Bill Clinton in 1996 and by Obama in 2008. The Democrats need to stop doing the Jeremy Thorpe thing - as many votes as possible! - and do the Paddy Ashdown thing - as many seats as possible. They need to acknowledge what the rules of the game are and play by those rules. This is what Howard Dean aimed to achieve as DNC Chair with his 50-state strategy. He was helped by the 2006 and 2008 cycles lining up well for the party, but no idea to what extent his approach was built on - or not - after his tenure ended. The fact Dean tried to run for the DNC Chair position again in 2016 suggests that he wasn't too happy with either Tim Kaine or Debbie Wasserman Schultz's performance. There is also an argument that the approach that was so successful in 2005-2008 wouldn't work now, given how far back Democrats have fallen in rural and exurban areas - somewhere Dean's DNC had significant success protecting conservative Democrats and even regaining ground from the GOP in Bush's second term. |
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