The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 19, 2024 11:50:45 GMT
I remain highly sceptical that RFK Jnr will end up doing very much electorally.
(and to the extent he does, isn't he fishing in significantly the same murky QAnonist waters as Trump?)
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Post by timmullen on Apr 19, 2024 12:29:21 GMT
On April 17, the Natural Law Party of Michigan, which is ballot-qualified, nominated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., for president. The party has a tradition of nominating minor party or independent presidential candidates to help them with ballot access. The Democrats won’t be happy with that one considering it’s swing state status The direction of travel of Kennedy’s polling and his anaemic fundraising do suggest he’ll either not make it to November or be little more than a minor blot on the political landscape like most independent candidates; I think the failure to gain the Libertarian Party ballot line will be fatal to his chances of making any kind of even minor impact.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 19, 2024 12:49:37 GMT
The Democrats won’t be happy with that one considering it’s swing state status The direction of travel of Kennedy’s polling and his anaemic fundraising do suggest he’ll either not make it to November or be little more than a minor blot on the political landscape like most independent candidates; I think the failure to gain the Libertarian Party ballot line will be fatal to his chances of making any kind of even minor impact. I agree in general but considering the narrow margins that the likes of Michigan could come down to then the potential for the spoiler effect is there even if his numbers end up well below some of his earlier polling. The Biden campaign obviously does have some concerns around it and are paraded the endorsements of pretty much the rest of the Kennedy family yesterday The Libertarian ballot would have made sense, seemingly his choice of VP turned off a lot of them
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Post by timmullen on Apr 19, 2024 13:15:34 GMT
The direction of travel of Kennedy’s polling and his anaemic fundraising do suggest he’ll either not make it to November or be little more than a minor blot on the political landscape like most independent candidates; I think the failure to gain the Libertarian Party ballot line will be fatal to his chances of making any kind of even minor impact. I agree in general but considering the narrow margins that the likes of Michigan could come down to then the potential for the spoiler effect is there even if his numbers end up well below some of his earlier polling. The Biden campaign obviously does have some concerns around it and are paraded the endorsements of pretty much the rest of the Kennedy family yesterday The Libertarian ballot would have made sense, seemingly his choice of VP turned off a lot of them The polling seems to show that he doesn’t eat too much into any category of voter; his natural appeal to younger voters is dented by his anti vax stance (not just Covid but all vaccines) and his support for Israel and Russia, and there’s nothing to suggest he can make a big impact amongst those voters who may be currently tepid on Biden. To even make a scintilla of difference he needs to be matching Jill Stein’s 2016 polling. I think the rolling out of the Kennedy clan is a staple of Democratic campaigns every cycle, and irrespective of RFK’s candidacy, I’d expect at least one family member to get a plumb speaking spot at the convention along with the traditional video of JFK, RFK Sr and Ted in action over their careers, which is usually intertwined with a tribute to Martin Luther King, and I’d imagine this year John Lewis as well. As I’ve been typing the New York Times has flashed that almost 50 former colleagues at the Natural Resources Defense Council have taken out a full page ad calling on him to “honor our planet, drop out” and pointing out that his environmental language now mirrors Trump, and his campaign is being kept alive by a Trump donor. Again it hurts any appeal he may have amongst traditional Democratic voters who are iffy about supporting Biden, but does seem like an effort to clear the field as has been used against Ralph Nader, Jill Stein and even Ross Perot (by Republicans) in the not too distant past.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 24, 2024 11:23:58 GMT
Two interesting points from yesterday worth highlighting, I think, one polling and one primary.
I've harped on a bit about the fact that current polling is of registered voters, and that likely voter screening might change the picture. The Harvard Institute of Politics survey oif young voters showed Biden getting 50% of RVs, but 56% of LVs. That's a significant shift, and could well be enough in a couple of the states to make a big difference.
I'm also interested in the enthusiasm gap for Trump among Republican voters. Yesterday was the Pennsylvania primary, and despite th fact that Haley dropped out aeons ago, she still got 16% of the vote. It's a closed primary, so that wasn't crossover Dems or Inds. And again, as I've said, some of those 16% will reluctantly vote for Trump in November, the fact they are *still* voting against him in primaries indicates some at least have very strong feelings about Donald. And it won't take 16% of R voters to shift some of those states into the Biden column.
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 27, 2024 10:57:37 GMT
I think we can assume that Kristi Noem has ruled herself out of the VP race with her relevation in her book that she did a Thorpe and shot a puppy. What sort of person puts that in a book?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 27, 2024 12:14:17 GMT
I think we can assume that Kristi Noem has ruled herself out of the VP race with her relevation in her book that she did a Thorpe and shot a puppy. What sort of person puts that in a book? Also, a goat which, despite claiming to be a good shot and the poor thing being in a ditch, it took her two shots to kill. What a nasty piece of work.
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 27, 2024 12:29:00 GMT
I think we can assume that Kristi Noem has ruled herself out of the VP race with her relevation in her book that she did a Thorpe and shot a puppy. What sort of person puts that in a book? Someone that is barking mad.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 27, 2024 14:42:47 GMT
If this story had appeared on Twitter, or some blog, you'd think, 'Oh, someone's doing a hatchet job on Noem, trying to rule her out of the race.' The facts that a) she put this IN HER OWN BOOK, and b) there are people out there which will like this, just boggles the mind.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Apr 27, 2024 19:43:57 GMT
It is, because it gives credence to "originalism", which is just Conservatives inventing jurisprudence. The reasoning given in the Roe vs Wade ruling was somewhat bizarre. It argued that the constitution gave a right to privacy (a right that is mentioned nowhere in the constitution) and that said right to privacy entailed the right of a woman to have an abortion (which is a massive stretch or reasoning). So Roe was essentially a matter of the court making law - something which should by rights be done by the legislature.
That said, it had relatively little to do with Trump. His appointments of supreme court justices was something that was essentially forced by the wider Republican party. And it was far from guaranteed that the three Trump appointees would actually be enough to overturn Roe.
Not a fan of Trump and generally much more of a fan of the wider American Conservative movement, but I think that Trump actually deserves credit on this. Previous Republican appointments had been careful to balance ideological conservatives with flip flopping moderates who would keep abortion in play as at the time it favoured Republicans as there were more pro-Life single issue voters (and those were more likely to have been Democrats otherwise, coming overwhelmingly from Catholic and charismatic constituencies). This was unwinding with the revolt that Bush II received with one of his nominations. But Trump just appointed conservatives as well as seeming to persuade elderly Republican justices to leave. He was actually quite effective. The pro lifers knew he wasn't one of them, but he did keep to the deal he made. Now he's trying to get the "common sense" middle ground (I'm actually fairly consistently pro-life, so I don't regard it as common sense). He knows that the pro-lifers have nowhere else to go and that most voters are turned off by the extreme rhetoric from both sides. I do wonder if it would be better for the pro lifers to let the chips fall after Roe v Wade and rebuild their cultural and organisational base. But even if its not, they've not got a choice.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 10:23:55 GMT
If this story had appeared on Twitter, or some blog, you'd think, 'Oh, someone's doing a hatchet job on Noem, trying to rule her out of the race.' The facts that a) she put this IN HER OWN BOOK, and b) there are people out there which will like this, just boggles the mind. It's astounding that this went in the book, surely someone would have tried to strongly advise against?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:51:13 GMT
I have the horrible suspicion that this actually appeals to a significant, even if minority, section of the US public
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 11:27:51 GMT
I have the horrible suspicion that this actually appeals to a significant, even if minority, section of the US public Maybe but it will clearly be outweighed by people who it repels, especially considering it’s a politician with national ambitions
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 28, 2024 12:00:27 GMT
I have the horrible suspicion that this actually appeals to a significant, even if minority, section of the US public Maybe but it will clearly be outweighed by people who it repels, especially considering it’s a politician with national ambitions Let's face it, she's writing for an audience of one. It's a job application.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 12:29:58 GMT
Maybe but it will clearly be outweighed by people who it repels, especially considering it’s a politician with national ambitions Let's face it, she's writing for an audience of one. It's a job application. Indeed but this part has likely backfired with that aim. I’m aware Trump is known for not being fond of dogs himself but despite his own chaotic personality he does have some pragmatism because he badly wants to win. With so many dog lovers in the US Noem would be too much of a negative risk to the ticket now
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 29, 2024 8:21:01 GMT
On April 28, the ballot-qualified Vermont Green Mountain Peace & Justice Party nominated Cornel West for President. The party in the past was the Liberty Union Party.
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Post by therealriga on Apr 29, 2024 21:15:28 GMT
Nice to see Trump has been consulting the LibDems on the use of bar charts.
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 30, 2024 8:55:55 GMT
On April 28, the American Independent Party held its state convention in Sacramento and nominated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for president. The party has been ballot-qualified continuously longer than any state political party in any state, other than the Democratic and Republican state parties and the New York Conservative Party. It was formed in 1967 to help George Wallace get on the ballot. In 2020, its presidential nominee was Rocky De La Fuente, who was also the nominee of the Alliance Party.
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