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Post by carlton43 on Nov 16, 2024 13:07:22 GMT
If you are comfortable with that trite remark as being the whole story, then prepare to enjoy a life of endless failure. Inflation was clearly the macro factor. All other issues (with the partial exception of immigration) were secondary. If you are incapable of seeing that obvious truth then I can’t help you. Circa 70% of US voters felt the country to be on the wrong track, and the incumbent President had an approval rating of 40%. Inflation is well-known as a government killer. In those circumstances history dictated a Republican landslide. As it was, they won only a narrow victory with their terrible candidate. Exit polls showed Harris with a noticeably higher favourable rating than Trump, and was viewed as less extreme. But that wasn’t good enough to overcome the record of an unpopular administration. Yes. I am incapable of seeing that to be the only or even the dominant 'obvious truth'. Your failure to acknowledge my point of view brings me pleasure because it will lead to recurrent failure by the left of centre. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 16, 2024 13:10:54 GMT
Election analysis by many academics:-
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Post by aargauer on Nov 16, 2024 13:13:57 GMT
"documented" AIUI refers to those who have formally applied for citizenship. For example. as I'm married to a US citizen I could have gone to live and work there anytime (green card) and have "indefinite right to remain" by dint of spouse. However, I would not have been obliged to formalise it . This would involve spending thousands of dollars on a citizenship test and a formal ceremony (rather like a baptism!) and swearing an oath of allegiance etc. So yes, you can work/pay tax but still be "undocumented". The worrying thing is if someone similar (I wonder who) ever got their greasy hands on the levers of power here, then my wife - who has lived and worked here for 25 years but has never formalised her citizenship here (cos it costs thousands of pounds too over here and we dont have that sort of money to frivolously waste) - could end up being on the receiving end of a mass deportation. So in that dystopian society, I would either have to pay thousands of dollars to live with her there , or vice versa. One thing is for sure, neither of us would do what those Latino Trump voters did! So when my party come to power and we start the mass deportations your wife will not be a citizen but just a foreigner. When she departs it will be 100% your fault for denying the importance of 'being a fully documented' citizen with entitlement to stay. You have cheerfully derided and despised the need, evaded the responsibility and stupidly not reckoned it was 'worth the price'. You are part of our problem. Reform aren't going to chuck out an American in the UK legally though are they. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Nov 16, 2024 13:27:25 GMT
No doubt. Not the only one either. But I'm completely baffled that you could pay into a tax or social security system without ever acknowledging your presence in any way to an authority, or without anyone raising it at some point. If you're paying tax and/or social security payments, then by definition you are documented. A number work in the ‘shadow economy’ with cash-in-hand. This was always the case in the hospitality sector. It was also an issue in construction where the majority of manual workers were on the ‘lump’ rather than employees from the mid-1960s onwards. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Nov 16, 2024 13:31:10 GMT
I would argue that Europe has found at least a dozen of these characters over the last decade, where they have only been held back by proportional voting systems. Now even that is breaking. Even accepting your premise, PR systems arguably enable the likes of le Pen and Wilders - rather than holding them back as you claim. When did Le Pen win anything under PR? |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 16, 2024 13:57:27 GMT
I suspect that retired Supreme Court Justices are not short of opportunities to make money. More importantly it looks like the GOP will control the Senate for the whole of Trump's presidency so Thomas and Alito are under no pressure to retire any time soon. Indeed not, but do they come to over $4 million which is the conservative estimate of the gifts Thomas has received? If Thomas is still in place in three years time he could be offered a substantial "retirement gift" |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 16, 2024 14:04:21 GMT
So when my party come to power and we start the mass deportations your wife will not be a citizen but just a foreigner. When she departs it will be 100% your fault for denying the importance of 'being a fully documented' citizen with entitlement to stay. You have cheerfully derided and despised the need, evaded the responsibility and stupidly not reckoned it was 'worth the price'. You are part of our problem. Reform aren't going to chuck out an American in the UK legally though are they. You may say that! I couldn't possibly comment. You don't see the premiss to be flawed though? You concede that we just might effect a 'win' and start to do things in a rather different manner? I did not know that the wife was American and I was making a wider and quite theoretical point. And 'No', we are not about sending away pleasant anglophone or well educated Europeans : We shall target the ill-educated, poorly spoken, low culture, no talent African and Asian dross (with large fecund extended families) away as you may well suspect. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 16, 2024 14:40:57 GMT
"documented" AIUI refers to those who have formally applied for citizenship. For example. as I'm married to a US citizen I could have gone to live and work there anytime (green card) and have "indefinite right to remain" by dint of spouse. However, I would not have been obliged to formalise it . This would involve spending thousands of dollars on a citizenship test and a formal ceremony (rather like a baptism!) and swearing an oath of allegiance etc. So yes, you can work/pay tax but still be "undocumented". The worrying thing is if someone similar (I wonder who) ever got their greasy hands on the levers of power here, then my wife - who has lived and worked here for 25 years but has never formalised her citizenship here (cos it costs thousands of pounds too over here and we dont have that sort of money to frivolously waste) - could end up being on the receiving end of a mass deportation. So in that dystopian society, I would either have to pay thousands of dollars to live with her there , or vice versa. One thing is for sure, neither of us would do what those Latino Trump voters did! Thats not what documented means. It essentially means that you are legally in the country and can prove it. I am a documented immigrant, I am not a citizen. I am not undocumented. I am sure your wife is also documented. You make it sound like your wife is a citizen but just needs to pay to register that fact "formalised her citizenship". She's not a citizen. To be honest, a couple of thousand is not a waste to ensure her right to remain even if she becomes reliant on social security. Undocumented immigrant is a near synonym for illegal immigrant. Of course there are occasional people who do have the right to be in a country but don't have proof easily to hand. That is rare, but does exist. I was going to say! By that reckoning I'm an undocumented migrant in Germany because I have a residency permit card but am not a citizen! Which would be a shock to all concerned. |
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,068
Member is Online
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Post by cathyc on Nov 16, 2024 14:41:01 GMT
"documented" AIUI refers to those who have formally applied for citizenship. For example. as I'm married to a US citizen I could have gone to live and work there anytime (green card) and have "indefinite right to remain" by dint of spouse. However, I would not have been obliged to formalise it . This would involve spending thousands of dollars on a citizenship test and a formal ceremony (rather like a baptism!) and swearing an oath of allegiance etc. So yes, you can work/pay tax but still be "undocumented". The worrying thing is if someone similar (I wonder who) ever got their greasy hands on the levers of power here, then my wife - who has lived and worked here for 25 years but has never formalised her citizenship here (cos it costs thousands of pounds too over here and we dont have that sort of money to frivolously waste) - could end up being on the receiving end of a mass deportation. So in that dystopian society, I would either have to pay thousands of dollars to live with her there , or vice versa. One thing is for sure, neither of us would do what those Latino Trump voters did! So when my party come to power and we start the mass deportations your wife will not be a citizen but just a foreigner. When she departs it will be 100% your fault for denying the importance of 'being a fully documented' citizen with entitlement to stay. You have cheerfully derided and despised the need, evaded the responsibility and stupidly not reckoned it was 'worth the price'. You are part of our problem. Do we take it that by "my party" you mean Reform UK, it's so hard to keep track? I have looked in the manifesto (?), policy statements , "Our Contract With You" etc of your current vehicle of choice and can find no reference to a policy mass deportations. Is this a formal announcement of it? |
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Post by relique on Nov 16, 2024 14:41:06 GMT
I would argue that Europe has found at least a dozen of these characters over the last decade, where they have only been held back by proportional voting systems. Now even that is breaking. Even accepting your premise, PR systems arguably enable the likes of le Pen and Wilders - rather than holding them back as you claim. Most will never get near the c50% of the vote that Trump has achieved.
If you put Le Pen against Mélenchon in the second round, I feel quite a lot of LR or macronists will vote for Le Pen.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 16, 2024 14:51:36 GMT
So when my party come to power and we start the mass deportations your wife will not be a citizen but just a foreigner. When she departs it will be 100% your fault for denying the importance of 'being a fully documented' citizen with entitlement to stay. You have cheerfully derided and despised the need, evaded the responsibility and stupidly not reckoned it was 'worth the price'. You are part of our problem. Do we take it that by "my party" you mean Reform UK, it's so hard to keep track? I have looked in the manifesto (?), policy statements , "Our Contract With You" etc of your current vehicle of choice and can find no reference to a policy mass deportations. Is this a formal announcement of it? I have never read a Party Manifesto all through and most I have never even started. Life is so short I reserve my time for a much better class of fiction. |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 16, 2024 15:04:40 GMT
The Democrats lost by "only 1-2%" against objectively the worst and least suitable candidate in history. One day the GOP is going to find a charismatic Trumpite candidate who isn't a convicted felon sociopath rapist fraudster. Praying that day isn't 2028 and carrying on as before is a somewhat dangerous plan. However bizarre some of us may find it, to a large segment of the US public Trump IS a charismatic candidate… Indeed, much as I loathe Trump, the one thing you can say about him is that he oozes charisma. In fact, its pretty much de rigueur for all right-wing populists throughout history. Compare him to say DeSantis or Vance - not in the same league. Someone like Ramaswamy has a bit of chutzpah about him but Im not sure he'd ever make it through the primaries tbf |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 16, 2024 15:07:37 GMT
If you are comfortable with that trite remark as being the whole story, then prepare to enjoy a life of endless failure. All other issues (with the partial exception of immigration) were secondary. If you are incapable of seeing that obvious truth then I can’t help you. Circa 70% of US voters felt the country to be on the wrong track, and the incumbent President had an approval rating of 40%. Inflation is well-known as a government killer. In those circumstances history dictated a Republican landslide. As it was, they won only a narrow victory with their terrible candidate. Exit polls showed Harris with a noticeably higher favourable rating than Trump, and was viewed as less extreme. But that wasn’t good enough to overcome the record of an unpopular administration. Every single poll on this matter confirms that this was far and away the top issue. With immigration pretty much always (a distant) second |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 16, 2024 15:09:57 GMT
So when my party come to power and we start the mass deportations your wife will not be a citizen but just a foreigner. When she departs it will be 100% your fault for denying the importance of 'being a fully documented' citizen with entitlement to stay. You have cheerfully derided and despised the need, evaded the responsibility and stupidly not reckoned it was 'worth the price'. You are part of our problem. Reform aren't going to chuck out an American in the UK legally though are they. I'd say 99% unlikely, but on the off chance I wont be voting Reform just in case. That was the actual original point I was making about the crass stupidity of the Trump Latinos (for the millionth time)  |
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