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Post by uthacalthing on Nov 10, 2024 1:19:39 GMT
I mean their boyfriends etc. Why should they be involuntarily celibate because their gfs have decided to go mental? I think many will leave and find someone who does want to fuck. While some cheeky bugger might come along and say beggars can’t be choosers, personally I wouldn’t want this type of girl anyway. In all seriousness it depends what you want. At 18 I just wanted to get laid. My mates were all getting laid, I just wanted to have a GF. At 23 I hit a rich seam, I could not stop getting laid. At 28 I hit a problem that I only understand in retrospect. I wanted to settle down. I wanted to own property. I wanted to be considered successful, whatever that means. Oddly enough it means I wanted to get married, I wanted to be in love with The One. But to be honest she would not have been The One at 23, she would have been One Of and I dont think I was a great catch for her at 23 either. Society has a problem. Women now want more than second best but there is a finite amount of better than second best going around and they are not exactly looking in the mirror. Most divorces are initiated by women. They take your kids off you and bill you every month ever after for them. Unless she decides to abort them which is of course wholly her choice. So whats in it for men? What does a man get in return for committment? Less sex than he got when he was single, then dumped at 35, if he is looking at older colleagues for clues. And what does a woman want? Well, pretty much everything it seems, including his vote. I can see her point and I can see his. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 10, 2024 5:43:39 GMT
Those of us who have been around a while can recall lots of times when supporters of parties vaguely of the left have been told what they should do by ‘well-meaning’ critics. Those ‘lessons’ can often be backed up by articles suggesting that they will never win again. I’d take it all in good part. Elections are normally heavily influenced by family finances and (as I’ve said before) I’m pretty sure that higher inflation and the interest rates used to control that played a large part (and Trump’s messaging certainly stressed that). Biden threw a lot of taxpayer money on the fire (following Trump’s tax cuts) and I’m sure that lesson can be learned. It was already evident that most countries (and among them countries where the broader left are in power) are moving toward nativist and protectionist policies. Biden certainly followed some of that path but Trump’s rhetoric was more direct and he had engineered obstructions to tighter border measures (but Biden could have pursued those when he had the legislative path clear). I don’t doubt that some vote on cultural issues above other things. That’s always been true. For example faith adherence has long been a key driver for some. It’s fair to say that support for equal rights generally hasn’t been backed by everyone and the US has a long, troubled and violent history on aspects of this. Parties genuinely of the left are unlikely to indulge any desire to deny equality but the strategy, tactics and messages can certainly be adjusted. But it’s worth stating the obvious. In first past the post systems in which elections are largely binary choices (not what I want, but that’s what both the USA and UK have) voters need an alternative when dissatisfied. The pendulum doesn’t swing at regular intervals but it almost inevitably happens, aided by the strong imperative for the opposition party to devise a winning formula. I’m sure the Democrats will adjust and I’m equally sure that the Republicans haven’t found a formula for perpetual success. Can you recall instances of parties getting mullered, not changing at all and coming back to win strongly? There probably are some but Labour certainly isn't one as the last two times you ended a long period of Tory government involved ditching electorally damaging messaging and policy. I don't see the Dems roaring back as they are now when in 2028 they will have an opponent without Trump's cultish appeal but with much more general appeal and debating ability. Well no. But I haven’t suggested that will happen if you read what I’ve said. In a system of 2 large coalitions fuelled by vast sums of money neither side enjoys losing. These are parties essentially focused on winning and holding power rather than espousing strong principles (look at the shifts on free trade as a good example). The Democrats will adjust and the most typical adjustment a party like this makes is toward the perceived centre (there’ll always be calls for the reverse - activist bases have voices). Defining that centre isn’t easy particularly in a seemingly polarised system, and where short-term benefit seems rather more attractive than longer-term purpose. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 6:04:13 GMT
It's the first Presidential election since 1932 where the losing candidate didn't flip a single county.
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Post by relique on Nov 10, 2024 6:26:22 GMT
An astonishing post with a ton of even more astonishing replies full of people explaining that they have cut ties with children, parents, brothers, sisters... over politics. In all seriousness I think this is a sign of mental illness. One of my best memory as a young political activist was a night after a party convention, in Dunkerque, us youth had eaten (and drunk quite a bit) together and when coming back to our youth hostel we met half a dozen young guys, workers, who we started a conversation with. They were quite nice but we quickly talked politics and found out they were Le Pen voters (or non voters). Most of us left but me and another young woman just stayed and started listening and talking, each to a group of three, for two hours with no antipathy and a lot of respect (we were 20 year old students from families that could afford sending their children to uni, they were all from families that simply couldn't ans had had to get a job soon after high school). I was dragged to my room by the comrade at 3 because we needed to be waking up at 6 but we had made a lot of progress, notably on the migration side of the conversation... I really don't see the point of being an activist and not wanting to listen to people and try and convince them of the reasoning of your own arguments... |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 10, 2024 6:56:00 GMT
An astonishing post with a ton of even more astonishing replies full of people explaining that they have cut ties with children, parents, brothers, sisters... over politics. In all seriousness I think this is a sign of mental illness. One of my best memory as a young political activist was a night after a party convention, in Dunkerque, us youth had eaten (and drunk quite a bit) together and when coming back to our youth hostel we met half a dozen young guys, workers, who we started a conversation with. They were quite nice but we quickly talked politics and found out they were Le Pen voters (or non voters). Most of us left but me and another young woman just stayed and started listening and talking, each to a group of three, for two hours with no antipathy and a lot of respect (we were 20 year old students from families that could afford sending their children to uni, they were all from families that simply couldn't ans had had to get a job soon after high school). I was dragged to my room by the comrade at 3 because we needed to be waking up at 6 but we had made a lot of progress, notably on the migration side of the conversation... I really don't see the point of being an activist and not wanting to listen to people and try and convince them of the reasoning of your own arguments... Quoted to like even more! I’d add that understanding opposing positions and their appeal is critical to defeating them (if that’s your purpose - sometimes of course one simply learns). Complete disengagement is the route to a more fractured and angry society. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 7:14:24 GMT
One of my best memory as a young political activist was a night after a party convention, in Dunkerque, us youth had eaten (and drunk quite a bit) together and when coming back to our youth hostel we met half a dozen young guys, workers, who we started a conversation with. They were quite nice but we quickly talked politics and found out they were Le Pen voters (or non voters). Most of us left but me and another young woman just stayed and started listening and talking, each to a group of three, for two hours with no antipathy and a lot of respect (we were 20 year old students from families that could afford sending their children to uni, they were all from families that simply couldn't ans had had to get a job soon after high school). I was dragged to my room by the comrade at 3 because we needed to be waking up at 6 but we had made a lot of progress, notably on the migration side of the conversation... I really don't see the point of being an activist and not wanting to listen to people and try and convince them of the reasoning of your own arguments... Quoted to like even more! I’d add that understanding opposing positions and their appeal is critical to defeating them (if that’s your purpose - sometimes of course one simply learns). Complete disengagement is the route to a more fractured and angry society. Indeed. This is why I voted for the Oxford Union to host Steve Bannon. It pattered to understand Trump's ideology if we wanted to beat him in 2020. |
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Post by bigfatron on Nov 10, 2024 7:17:45 GMT
Dawkins quoted studies about the proportion of atheist children in the US cut off by their religious parents after 'coming out' as non-believers - the numbers were quite high IIRC (I can't check, as I am travelling...)
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Nov 10, 2024 7:58:21 GMT
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 8:01:09 GMT
Hispanic vote share for a Republican candidate:
2004: 40%
2008: 31%
2024: 45%
These things change. No realignment is permanent. Look what happened from 2019 to 2024 in our own country. As a referendum on Biden's stewardship of the economy, this election result is clear, however it's status as a mandate for conservatism in general is somewhat more dubious.
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Post by London Lad on Nov 10, 2024 8:04:32 GMT
Four days after an election, anyone who thinks they know definitively why one side won and the other lost knows nothing about politics at all. It's all emotion at this time. There are plenty of Conservatives over here, who four months after their defeat, haven't got to grips or come to terms with how and why they lost and are still in the anger and denial phase. But there are straws in the wind TV presenter Bill Maher - who, of course knows nothing about politics - has remarked that there wasn't a single member of staff on his programme who would admit to backing Trump Insightfully, he wonders why that was so. Could it be a disconnect between the media and the voters or could it be that staff were afraid to speak up? For fear of ridicule or worse. Which leads us to the US polling industry. They got the result wrong. We're they deliberately dishonest? Who knows? Or was the cultural and political phenomenon of people being afraid the reason they got it wrong? That voters are lying for fear of being disrespected? Could this fear, indeed, have propelled voters who are sick of woke bullying to back Trump? Just a snippet, but lots to think about there. Admittedly the media morons are still stuck on the 'emotions' page. They and the Dems are going to have to move on, put their emotions to one side and actually start thinking But Bill Maher has been an outlier for years - every week on his show he keeps telling the Dems to concentrate on the issues that matter to real people instead of pursuing all their culture wars and every week the Democratic Party ignore him. |
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Post by aargauer on Nov 10, 2024 8:21:57 GMT
It's the first Presidential election since 1932 where the losing candidate didn't flip a single county. That's a little surprising. Both that Carter 1980 and Mondale 1984 flipped something, and that Harris didn't. You would think thered be something suburban on the plains somewhere she managed. What was the closest I wonder. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 8:23:36 GMT
It's the first Presidential election since 1932 where the losing candidate didn't flip a single county. That's a little surprising. Both that Carter 1980 and Mondale 1984 flipped something, and that Harris didn't. You would think thered be something suburban on the plains somewhere she managed. What was the closest I wonder. Pacific County, Washington. Washington trended left from 2020. So 1976 was the last time every state shifted one way. Mondale flipped many Native American counties like Apache County, Arizona, and college towns like Ithaca (Cornell) in Tompkins County, New York. Someone else can explain how George McGovern did it - some flips in his home state of South Dakota for one thing. Al Gore flipped two counties - Orange County, Florida (Orlando), which must have hurt considering he lost FL. He also flipped Charles County, Maryland. John Kerry flipped some counties that were sharply trending Democratic like Fairfax County, Virginia and Travis County, Texas (Austin). McCain did well in Louisiana and Arkansas relative to 2004, partly because of race. |
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Post by batman on Nov 10, 2024 8:31:44 GMT
Arizona now called for Trump. Perhaps they may finish up in Maricopa County in my lifetime.
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 8:34:11 GMT
Donald Trump wins 312 Electoral Votes. The most for any Republican since 1988.
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Post by stodge on Nov 10, 2024 9:39:31 GMT
Donald Trump wins 312 Electoral Votes. The most for any Republican since 1988. First time the Republicans got an absolute majority of votes in a Presidential election since 2004. Again, on here, it's more about why the Democrats lost rather than why the Republicans won and I suspect we'll find in time some of the Republican campaigning was very sharp and directed for all the Trump and Vance rallies appeared much quieter than the Harris and Walz events. As we remember ourselves from 1992, appearances can be very deceptive. From the vox pops I have seen, there are any number of reasons why Trump won - I suspect, as the exit poll numbers suggested, the two top liners were the economy and immigration. The new wholly GOP majority Executive and Legislature has to "deal with" those two issues and everything else is peripheral. On both issues, the Republican response is protectionist and insular - keep out "the foreign" - whether it's Chinese phones or Bangladesh-made shirts or illegal immigrants (however defined). How the American public perceives the performance of the new Republican administration on those two issues is probably the key factor in future elections (and it's perceptions which can be influenced by media as well as personal experience as much as actual statistics). We have mid term elections in 2026 - I certainly wouldn't rule out either further Republican consolidation or a Democrat comeback at this stage. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 10, 2024 9:46:03 GMT
Donald Trump wins 312 Electoral Votes. The most for any Republican since 1988. First time the Republicans got an absolute majority of votes in a Presidential election since 2004. Again, on here, it's more about why the Democrats lost rather than why the Republicans won and I suspect we'll find in time some of the Republican campaigning was very sharp and directed for all the Trump and Vance rallies appeared much quieter than the Harris and Walz events. As we remember ourselves from 1992, appearances can be very deceptive. From the vox pops I have seen, there are any number of reasons why Trump won - I suspect, as the exit poll numbers suggested, the two top liners were the economy and immigration. The new wholly GOP majority Executive and Legislature has to "deal with" those two issues and everything else is peripheral. On both issues, the Republican response is protectionist and insular - keep out "the foreign" - whether it's Chinese phones or Bangladesh-made shirts or illegal immigrants (however defined). How the American public perceives the performance of the new Republican administration on those two issues is probably the key factor in future elections (and it's perceptions which can be influenced by media as well as personal experience as much as actual statistics). We have mid term elections in 2026 - I certainly wouldn't rule out either further Republican consolidation or a Democrat comeback at this stage. Probably. I don't know. If Democrats also try to copy the Republicans and Trump, it's pointless. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 10, 2024 9:49:49 GMT
Donald Trump wins 312 Electoral Votes. The most for any Republican since 1988. First time the Republicans got an absolute majority of votes in a Presidential election since 2004. Possibly not once all the votes are counted from California - still another 4 mill to come in from there, largely from the Bay area (eg Alameda has only counted half their votes so far) |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 10, 2024 9:51:08 GMT
One of my best memory as a young political activist was a night after a party convention, in Dunkerque, us youth had eaten (and drunk quite a bit) together and when coming back to our youth hostel we met half a dozen young guys, workers, who we started a conversation with. They were quite nice but we quickly talked politics and found out they were Le Pen voters (or non voters). Most of us left but me and another young woman just stayed and started listening and talking, each to a group of three, for two hours with no antipathy and a lot of respect (we were 20 year old students from families that could afford sending their children to uni, they were all from families that simply couldn't ans had had to get a job soon after high school). I was dragged to my room by the comrade at 3 because we needed to be waking up at 6 but we had made a lot of progress, notably on the migration side of the conversation... I really don't see the point of being an activist and not wanting to listen to people and try and convince them of the reasoning of your own arguments... Quoted to like even more! I’d add that understanding opposing positions and their appeal is critical to defeating them (if that’s your purpose - sometimes of course one simply learns). Complete disengagement is the route to a more fractured and angry society. But don't you think there is a problem if it is only the Left who are doing the "understanding and listening" bit, but the Right aren't? |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 10, 2024 9:59:05 GMT
That analysis is so deeply flawed that they fail to note that a series of demographics are seeking that old American Dream through Trump; but also deeply rejecting the American Nightmare created by academic social engineering and the Alt-Woke complete nonsense that has formed what they see as an extensive deep swamp. And indeed that is how I see it too. The tragedy here is the lack of quality in their standard-bearer Trump. Modern America cannot even get the remedy anywhere near to what is needed and desperately sought after by the many. We haven't got it right in the UK either, but Reform might be way of getting towards what we really deeply want and need. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,579
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Post by mboy on Nov 10, 2024 10:13:57 GMT
In the vox pops I have seen, there are any number of reasons why Trump won - I suspect, as the exit poll numbers suggested, the two top liners were the economy and immigration. The new wholly GOP majority Executive and Legislature has to "deal with" those two issues and everything else is peripheral. On both issues, the Republican response is protectionist and insular - keep out "the foreign" - whether it's Chinese phones or Bangladesh-made shirts or illegal immigrants (however defined). How the American public perceives the performance of the new Republican administration on those two issues is probably the key factor in future elections (and it's perceptions which can be influenced by media as well as personal experience as much as actual statistics). The US economy is in good shape, and the belief that it's not is largely a result of successful rightwing media messaging. So all Trump has to do really is *not* break the economy, and get the Fox media message to change. The former may be more difficult for him then the latter, given his protectionist plans. On immigration all he has to do is secure the southern border, and now he has the Triecta he can fund The Wall and put machine-guns on it. I expect the flow of migrants to drop dramatically when they realise they may literally get shot at now. Given both these, I think Trump will likely be able to claim success on both key goals. Given the lunatic Woke zealots will not let go of the Democrats willingly, I would say there's a good chance of a GOP advance in the mid-terms. |
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