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Post by bigfatron on Aug 23, 2024 9:26:04 GMT
What happens if Trump seeing in the polls he is going to lose , pulls out of race . Do the Republicans get another go to putting someone up to challenge Harris and the Democrats ? There are vague rumours to this effect from Republican sources - if he is well behind by mid October Trump would stand down as candidate in return for a plea bargain on the various indightments. Not sure how much that is wishful thinking though… |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Aug 23, 2024 10:41:41 GMT
What happens if Trump seeing in the polls he is going to lose , pulls out of race . Do the Republicans get another go to putting someone up to challenge Harris and the Democrats ? Not a chance his ego would allow that Depends, if he really thinks he's going lose, who knows. The biggest danger for the Dems is if they really start to believe he is going to lose. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 23, 2024 10:56:21 GMT
It's getting a bit late in the day to cleanly withdraw from the race. Withdrawing in mid-October when most states would have printed and sent out overseas/military ballots would cause an absolute legal shitstorm in any state that the Republicans won in November.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2024 11:11:42 GMT
Not sure the last day was a good one for them. I'm uncertain as to how crucial these things are and how many people pay attention but it seemed to me ...and this difficult to say ...but to be largely centred on black/immigrant demographics. I'm concerned the battlegrounds may not take it in the way the Democrats would like. For one thing, non-white voters are an *absolutely indispensable* part of any winning Democrat coalition - including in most of the "swing" states. Last month Labour showed that it could still win a GE here despite significant losses with ethnic minorities - that is a complete non-starter for the Dems given how they make a significantly bigger share of the US electorate. And arguably most white voters who are bothered by this were going to vote for Trump anyway (and in many cases have been doing so since 2016) |
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Post by bigfatron on Aug 23, 2024 13:11:41 GMT
It's getting a bit late in the day to cleanly withdraw from the race. Withdrawing in mid-October when most states would have printed and sent out overseas/military ballots would cause an absolute legal shitstorm in any state that the Republicans won in November. Would Trump care though? He's only interested in one person's welfare, after all... |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 23, 2024 16:07:28 GMT
What happens if Trump seeing in the polls he is going to lose , pulls out of race . Do the Republicans get another go to putting someone up to challenge Harris and the Democrats ? he never thinks that way. If he ends up being way behind in the polls, which hasn't occurred yet, he will simply think the polls are wrong. ..and furthermore, he would double down on that on election night and claim that the vote was rigged again and try for a Jan 6th II in the style of many of the dictators he so admires. |
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 23, 2024 20:56:09 GMT
he never thinks that way. If he ends up being way behind in the polls, which hasn't occurred yet, he will simply think the polls are wrong. ..and furthermore, he would double down on that on election night and claim that the vote was rigged again and try for a Jan 6th II in the style of many of the dictators he so admires. Though of course the person presiding over Jan 6th II will be… current Vice President Kamala Harris. |
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Post by timmullen on Aug 23, 2024 23:11:46 GMT
And indeed he has, rumour is he’s been promised a job in the Department of Health and Human Services to spread his anti vaccination bulls***t. It will be interesting to see how his supporters go over this, the anti vaxxers obviously have a home with Trump, but those backing Kennedy as a 21st century Ralph Nader, taking on corporate America on behalf of the environmental lobby will seem unlikely to back Trump - do they go to Harris, Cornell West as a Green, or simply stay home on election day? |
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 23, 2024 23:26:05 GMT
And indeed he has, rumour is he’s been promised a job in the Department of Health and Human Services to spread his anti vaccination bulls***t. It will be interesting to see how his supporters go over this, the anti vaxxers obviously have a home with Trump, but those backing Kennedy as a 21st century Ralph Nader, taking on corporate America on behalf of the environmental lobby will seem unlikely to back Trump - do they go to Harris, Cornell West as a Green, or simply stay home on election day? Do the anti-vaxxers obviously have a home with Trump though?? Trump, the architect of Operation Warp Speed, which was in (large??) part responsible for the rapid development of anti-Covid vaccines?? I guess such people are totally capable of forgetting all about pro-vaccine Trump though. The same Trump who was hospitalised due to Covid and received a totally experimental antibody cocktail therapy. |
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Post by timmullen on Aug 23, 2024 23:39:52 GMT
And indeed he has, rumour is he’s been promised a job in the Department of Health and Human Services to spread his anti vaccination bulls***t. It will be interesting to see how his supporters go over this, the anti vaxxers obviously have a home with Trump, but those backing Kennedy as a 21st century Ralph Nader, taking on corporate America on behalf of the environmental lobby will seem unlikely to back Trump - do they go to Harris, Cornell West as a Green, or simply stay home on election day? Do the anti-vaxxers obviously have a home with Trump though?? Trump, the architect of Operation Warp Speed, which was in (large??) part responsible for the rapid development of anti-Covid vaccines?? I guess such people are totally capable of forgetting all about pro-vaccine Trump though. The same Trump who was hospitalised due to Covid and received a totally experimental antibody cocktail therapy. Yes I think they do, because I suspect most of them recognise the genie’s out of the bottle and they’re unlikely to get vaccines banned (although given the right job at HHS they may hope Kennedy would do such) but trust Trump to oppose mandatory vaccines. It’s also not a huge stretch for Trump to now say “Fauci lied to me and we didn’t need vaccines at all”, but, like Kennedy, many of them have opposed vaccines long before Covid and are adherents of Andrew Wakefield’s anti-MMR ramblings; that’s actually where Kennedy first drifted away from his family’s Democratic roots by funding legal cases of parents who claimed their children had developed Autism as a result of the MMR vaccine. |
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 24, 2024 3:31:03 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 24, 2024 10:01:49 GMT
I saw a comment from a US pollster last night that polling on Harris shows that she was, until the start of this week, largely unknown to most of the US public. Obviously they knew she was VP, but they had little opinion on her as a person or as a politician.
This got me thinking: a presidential candidate is defined for the voters in two ways:
a) they are the incumbent, with all the positives and negatives that that entails; they will have been seen taking positions on high profile issues, running a competent or incompetent administration, and so on. And the media from the other side of the spectrum will have been attacking them for some time. So the candidate will largely be defined by factors beyond their direct control.
b) they have won through the primary process. While the fact of winning is going to be down to a number of positive factors, the voters will have seen them get attacked by other primary candidates, the opposing party, and opposing media. Again, the public perception of the candidate wil be largely created oppositionally.
Now for Harris, the quick handover from Biden, and the rapid coalescing of the party behind her, means the Republicans and their media have not had the chance to define her on their terms. And now the public perception will be formed on the basis of a universally positive convention, which has garnered very impressive ratings - this being the other point the pollster made, that people want to find out about Harris, and were looking to the convention to learn about her.
So, to conclude, I think that Trump and the Republicans are going to struggle to find a negative framing for Harris, because the public perception is already hardening into a fixed view. There may or may not be a convention 'bounce', but it has served a useful purpose already.
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Post by London Lad on Aug 24, 2024 21:32:36 GMT
So, to conclude, I think that Trump and the Republicans are going to struggle to find a negative framing for Harris, because the public perception is already hardening into a fixed view. There may or may not be a convention 'bounce', but it has served a useful purpose already. Not sure about that - up until this week the Republican machine has concentrated on the opponent, which was Biden. from now on all the fire is going to be directed at Harris. her history is going to be raked over and her failures amplified. So is there a 'fixed view' - I would doubt it ....... yet. |
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Post by timmullen on Aug 24, 2024 22:10:55 GMT
So, to conclude, I think that Trump and the Republicans are going to struggle to find a negative framing for Harris, because the public perception is already hardening into a fixed view. There may or may not be a convention 'bounce', but it has served a useful purpose already. Not sure about that - up until this week the Republican machine has concentrated on the opponent, which was Biden. from now on all the fire is going to be directed at Harris. her history is going to be raked over and her failures amplified. So is there a 'fixed view' - I would doubt it ....... yet. The problem with that is they’re running out of time and opportunity, and the fact that they haven’t done it already does make you start to question whether they have anything game changing or whether they’re actually competent enough to run with what they have. |
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dundas
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Post by dundas on Aug 25, 2024 0:52:09 GMT
He hasn't. He's endorsed him, not joined his ticket. |
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Post by timmullen on Aug 25, 2024 7:09:16 GMT
He hasn't. He's endorsed him, not joined his ticket. Thereby directly contradicting the second sentence of his Tweet. |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 25, 2024 9:38:03 GMT
Not sure about that - up until this week the Republican machine has concentrated on the opponent, which was Biden. from now on all the fire is going to be directed at Harris. her history is going to be raked over and her failures amplified. So is there a 'fixed view' - I would doubt it ....... yet. The problem with that is they’re running out of time and opportunity, and the fact that they haven’t done it already does make you start to question whether they have anything game changing or whether they’re actually competent enough to run with what they have. There was a clip from a Trump speech (rant/ramble) the other day where he accused Harris of being responsible for something about 300,000 children either being dead or sold into slavery which is directly down to her....apparently!!! So, there's always that. I'm sure he has lots of evidence to back up that claim!  |
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Post by timmullen on Aug 25, 2024 9:41:25 GMT
The problem with that is they’re running out of time and opportunity, and the fact that they haven’t done it already does make you start to question whether they have anything game changing or whether they’re actually competent enough to run with what they have. There was a clip from a Trump speech (rant/ramble) the other day where he accused Harris of being responsible for something about 300,000 children either being dead or sold into slavery which is directly down to her....apparently!!! So, there's always that. I'm sure he has lots of evidence to back up that claim! I presume it’s connected her role as Biden’s so-called “border czar” and that’s the approximate number of illegal migrants who have gone missing at the southern border which has - allegedly - happened on her watch. |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 25, 2024 9:49:56 GMT
Yes I believe that was the thrust of the argument (if you can call it an argument!)
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 25, 2024 13:19:10 GMT
Sometimes a simple picture speaks 1000 words...
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