|
Post by manchesterman on Jul 30, 2024 19:49:28 GMT
It will surely be either Shapiro or Kelly given that Harris must carry those states.
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 22:48:22 GMT
It will surely be either Shapiro or Kelly given that Harris must carry those states. Hillary chose Kaine and Virginia was never really in doubt. Obama chose Biden and Delaware was already safe Democrat by then. Given that Beshear is Kentucky governor, I think he would help Kamala a bit in Appalachia, and parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania. Shapiro's stances on Gaza might just rule him out, plus I guess (and it's regrettable) there might be some who wouldn't vote Democrat if Shapiro was on the ticket because Kamala's husband is also Jewish (I hope no one thinks like that). As an aside, North Carolina looks doable for the Dems based on this poll because Obama led by about 6% nationally in 2008 when he won the state despite it's massive GOP landslide in 2004 (Bush won it by 16%): If Trump's sub 45%, and Kamala stays above 50% then she wins the Tar Heel State IMO (with Texas going to Trump by 2/3): =And yes, you haven't seen that many decimal places since you last Googled 'Florida 2000 results'.
|
|
riccimarsh
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,571
Member is Online
|
Post by riccimarsh on Aug 1, 2024 11:15:59 GMT
An interesting take…
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Aug 1, 2024 11:29:45 GMT
It will surely be either Shapiro or Kelly given that Harris must carry those states. Hillary chose Kaine and Virginia was never really in doubt. Obama chose Biden and Delaware was already safe Democrat by then. Given that Beshear is Kentucky governor, I think he would help Kamala a bit in Appalachia, and parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania. Shapiro's stances on Gaza might just rule him out, plus I guess (and it's regrettable) there might be some who wouldn't vote Democrat if Shapiro was on the ticket because Kamala's husband is also Jewish (I hope no one thinks like that). As an aside, North Carolina looks doable for the Dems based on this poll because Obama led by about 6% nationally in 2008 when he won the state despite it's massive GOP landslide in 2004 (Bush won it by 16%): If Trump's sub 45%, and Kamala stays above 50% then she wins the Tar Heel State IMO (with Texas going to Trump by 2/3): =And yes, you haven't seen that many decimal places since you last Googled 'Florida 2000 results'. That is not a poll, it is a joke about the Venezuelan presidential election.
|
|
islington
Non-Aligned
Posts: 4,332
Member is Online
|
Post by islington on Aug 1, 2024 11:40:23 GMT
It will surely be either Shapiro or Kelly given that Harris must carry those states. It's very hard for her to win without Pennsylvania but there are several plausible winning combinations that don't include Arizona. But I agree with sanders that VP picks (good or bad) aren't usually as simple as 'I win x state if I choose its governor/senator'.
I can see logical arguments for Beshear, Kelly or Shapiro but she could easily end up choosing someone else altogether.
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 1, 2024 12:10:12 GMT
It will surely be either Shapiro or Kelly given that Harris must carry those states. It's very hard for her to win without Pennsylvania but there are several plausible winning combinations that don't include Arizona. But I agree with sanders that VP picks (good or bad) aren't usually as simple as 'I win x state if I choose its governor/senator'.
I can see logical arguments for Beshear, Kelly or Shapiro but she could easily end up choosing someone else altogether.
It can make a difference though. In 2000, Gore didn't know that he would almost certainly have won the EC if he chose a running mate from New Hampshire or Florida rather than deep blue Connecticut. And, at least in theory, Kerry could've won in 2004 if he chose a prominent Ohio Democrat since that state voted broadly in line with the nation that year. I think there's perhaps still an argument for Buttigieg, especially if polls get demonstrably better for the Kamala Harris campaign in the next week or so.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 1, 2024 22:04:35 GMT
Gore would have won if he'd carried his own home state never mind that of his running mate
|
|
riccimarsh
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,571
Member is Online
|
Post by riccimarsh on Aug 1, 2024 22:15:13 GMT
Gore would have won if he'd carried his own home state never mind that of his running mate By 3.87% as well. Not even close.
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 2, 2024 1:16:13 GMT
Gore would have won if he'd carried his own home state never mind that of his running mate The trends were such by 2000 that he wasn’t going to win it. Picking a running mate from Florida or New Hampshire would’ve made all the difference, IMHO. TN was only ever won by the Clinton - Gore ticket with a plurality and Bill had already done 2% worse there than his nationwide showing in 1996 (47% in the Volunteer State to 49% nationally). It was fairly candid for Democrats after 1994 (when the GOP swept both Tennessee Senate seats in the ‘Republican Revolution’ that TN was on a hard right trend and the anaemic win in ‘96 confirmed this. New Hampshire 2000 was much more shocking because Clinton won the Granite State by 10% in 1996 compared to his 9-point blowout across the nation. Florida was only Clinton by 5% in 1996.
|
|
riccimarsh
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,571
Member is Online
|
Post by riccimarsh on Aug 2, 2024 1:48:16 GMT
Gore would have won if he'd carried his own home state never mind that of his running mate The trends were such by 2000 that he wasn’t going to win it. Picking a running mate from Florida or New Hampshire would’ve made all the difference, IMHO. TN was only ever won by the Clinton - Gore ticket with a plurality and Bill had already done 2% worse there than his nationwide showing in 1996 (47% in the Volunteer State to 49% nationally). It was fairly candid for Democrats after 1994 (when the GOP swept both Tennessee Senate seats in the ‘Republican Revolution’ that TN was on a hard right trend and the anaemic win in ‘96 confirmed this. New Hampshire 2000 was much more shocking because Clinton won the Granite State by 10% in 1996 compared to his 9-point blowout across the nation. Florida was only Clinton by 5% in 1996. Who would you have suggested though??
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 2, 2024 2:43:09 GMT
The trends were such by 2000 that he wasn’t going to win it. Picking a running mate from Florida or New Hampshire would’ve made all the difference, IMHO. TN was only ever won by the Clinton - Gore ticket with a plurality and Bill had already done 2% worse there than his nationwide showing in 1996 (47% in the Volunteer State to 49% nationally). It was fairly candid for Democrats after 1994 (when the GOP swept both Tennessee Senate seats in the ‘Republican Revolution’ that TN was on a hard right trend and the anaemic win in ‘96 confirmed this. New Hampshire 2000 was much more shocking because Clinton won the Granite State by 10% in 1996 compared to his 9-point blowout across the nation. Florida was only Clinton by 5% in 1996. Who would you have suggested though?? In 2000, Howard Dean or Madeleine Kunin for New Englanders, or Bill Nelson for a Floridian, since ex-Dem governor Lowton Chiles had passed away by then. Speaking to the present day, this is an excellent analysis (not something I'm much good at in my old age) of the front runners for the Vice President spot: TL;DR: It looks like Kamala wants executive experience, Shapiro is overrated as a VP contender. I'm virtually certain it's Beshear because of this and because PaddyPower were offering me to cash out my £100 bet on Andy at 16/1 for £200 (now £188): Shapiro is best placed to win Pennsylvania governor in 2026. No party had won three in a row since the 1790s but the Democrats could well win a fourth straight victory in the state after Tom Wolf's two triumphs in 2014 and 2018. I also think if Democrats do get a trifecta in the Keystone State this year (I favour them to do so) they'll want to protect it as far as they can and for as long as possible to prevent gerrymandering in 2032. Republicans gerrymandered Penn. in 2012 (court struck it down).
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Aug 2, 2024 8:09:19 GMT
The number of signatures needed for someone running for president outside the major parties in 2024 is substantially more difficult than it had been in 2020. That is partly because legislatures increased the number of signatures, and partly because some states temporarily decreased their requirements in 2020 because of the covid health crisis.
Using the easier method in each state, the number nationwide in 2020 had been 568,689 signatures or registrants, and in 2024 it is 660,897.
The states that increased the presidential petition requirements were New York in 2020, and Arkansas, Colorado, and Iowa in 2021. Certain other states also increased requirements for office other than president.
Jurisdictions that temporarily eased the presidential petition requirements in 2020 due to covid were the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Also New York increased the permanent requirement in 2020 to 45,000, but then lowered it only for 2020 to 30,000.
The calculation assumes that the easier method in California is the independent presidential petition, not the registration method that creates a new party. However, both methods are extremely burdensome, and it is a close call. In 2024 the independent petition is 219,403 signatures and the party registration method is approximately 75,000 party members. The exact requirement for the registration method won’t be known for several weeks, when the state issues a new Report of Registration.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Aug 2, 2024 9:27:11 GMT
Who would you have suggested though?? In 2000, Howard Dean or Madeleine Kunin for New Englanders, or Bill Nelson for a Floridian, since ex-Dem governor Lowton Chiles had passed away by then. Speaking to the present day, this is an excellent analysis (not something I'm much good at in my old age) of the front runners for the Vice President spot: TL;DR: It looks like Kamala wants executive experience, Shapiro is overrated as a VP contender. I'm virtually certain it's Beshear because of this and because PaddyPower were offering me to cash out my £100 bet on Andy at 16/1 for £200 (now £188): Shapiro is best placed to win Pennsylvania governor in 2026. No party had won three in a row since the 1790s but the Democrats could well win a fourth straight victory in the state after Tom Wolf's two triumphs in 2014 and 2018. I also think if Democrats do get a trifecta in the Keystone State this year (I favour them to do so) they'll want to protect it as far as they can and for as long as possible to prevent gerrymandering in 2032. Republicans gerrymandered Penn. in 2012 (court struck it down). On the Florida point Bill Nelson only became a Senator at the 2000 election himself. I know he’d held some previous offices and had an unsuccessful run for the Democrat governor nomination one year but would he really have had the prominence then to be considered for Vice President?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,304
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 2, 2024 11:48:13 GMT
What is certain is that Kaine was a dismal pick for HRC in 2016, and one of several examples of her poor political instincts.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Aug 2, 2024 14:57:29 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 2, 2024 15:30:27 GMT
I put £200 on Kamala winning just after Biden said he wouldn't stand, when you could still get £420 back for doing so - it's evens now on a lot of brokers.
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 2, 2024 15:47:43 GMT
I put £200 on Kamala winning just after Biden said he wouldn't stand, when you could still get £420 back for doing so - it's evens now on a lot of brokers. That's not much of a change, evens means you get back £400 for a £200 stake if you win.
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Aug 2, 2024 16:24:03 GMT
I put £200 on Kamala winning just after Biden said he wouldn't stand, when you could still get £420 back for doing so - it's evens now on a lot of brokers. That's not much of a change, evens means you get back £400 for a £200 stake if you win. Current US politics bet I've got on: Coral: £100 on Kamala Harris winning at 7/5; Democrats winning Wisconsin at 4/5 (£50 bet); Michigan at 10/11 (£50); Arizona at 1/1 (£50); Georgia at 1/2 (£50). PaddyPower: Beshear being VP at 16/1 (£100); Kamala Harris winning at 5/4 (£200); Kamala Harris winning at EVS (£100). I might have fucked this up big time. Still, potential returns of about £2,500.
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 3, 2024 12:12:38 GMT
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Aug 3, 2024 12:47:55 GMT
There’s certainly been an initial polling surge, nationwide and in swing states. How it lasts and if it can grow further is the big question obviously
|
|