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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 28, 2024 23:41:32 GMT
Harris needs a serious face (literally) to balance her perceived jocular approach. That's a part Kelly can perform Although her smile vs Trumps scowl is an asset. Americans like positive - “Morning in America” for example. Unfortunately far too many Americans (especially the MAGA types) seem solely to thrive on making their political opponents as miserable as possible.
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Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 4:29:18 GMT
Michigan looks a bit iffy to me, compared to Pennyslvania (which is more GOP). I'm glad I bet on the Democrats winning MI, WI, AZ, and GA before Biden called time.
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mboy
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Posts: 23,131
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Post by mboy on Jul 29, 2024 6:53:57 GMT
The Michigan value is a typo and should say 47 (i.e. level).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 29, 2024 8:01:04 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 29, 2024 8:28:44 GMT
On July 26, the Nevada Secretary of State determined that the Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. independent petition has enough valid signatures
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 29, 2024 8:59:59 GMT
On July 26, the Nevada Secretary of State determined that the Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. independent petition has enough valid signatures Maybe I'm buying into stereotypes... but I'd expect there to be a market for RFK jr in a state like Nevada? But also probably a lot of a overlap with Trump's pool of potential voters in that state too?
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 29, 2024 10:05:33 GMT
it's a bit reminiscent of the occasional Viz character Yankee Dougal, a boy who thinks he is American, for example asking his "mom" for "root beer & sasparilly" which prompts his no-nonsense Yorkshireman dad to answer "I'll give you bloody root beer & sasparilly" Someone on TV (I forget who) did a comedy TV sketch about a black blind white-supremacist shouting “White Power!” without realising that he’s black. Perhaps that was just a rather negative view?
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 29, 2024 11:48:38 GMT
Another infodump from electoral-vote.com. I was going to summarise but thought I might as well post the para as a whole:
I didn't even know you could have tens of thousands on a Zoom call!
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 29, 2024 12:07:56 GMT
Another infodump from electoral-vote.com. I was going to summarise but thought I might as well post the para as a whole: I didn't even know you could have tens of thousands on a Zoom call! It wouldn't be terribly practical. But so long as they donate...
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Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 12:32:48 GMT
I've put £100 each on Buttigeig (20/1), Beshear (16/1) and Cooper (10/1) to be Kamala Harris's running mate. Probably a waste of money but the latter two would be smart picks, especially Cooper as Governor of North Carolina, the state now having 17 Electoral Votes, and with a competitive governor race in the Tar Heel State.
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Post by norflondon on Jul 30, 2024 6:16:53 GMT
MN Gov Tim Walz has come from nowhere to be in top three or four to be VP. He has created a buzz on SM with his hard hitting vids and spunky condemnation of Trump/Vance He also has a v good record in MN.
I'll stick with Kelly
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Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 8:09:56 GMT
Walz good. Minnesota =/= a swing state.
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 30, 2024 8:47:01 GMT
I've put £100 each on Buttigeig (20/1), Beshear (16/1) and Cooper (10/1) to be Kamala Harris's running mate. Probably a waste of money but the latter two would be smart picks, especially Cooper as Governor of North Carolina, the state now having 17 Electoral Votes, and with a competitive governor race in the Tar Heel State. Well you are already down £100 www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-30/kamala-harris-vice-president-race-narrows/104160154
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Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 9:32:42 GMT
I've put £100 each on Buttigeig (20/1), Beshear (16/1) and Cooper (10/1) to be Kamala Harris's running mate. Probably a waste of money but the latter two would be smart picks, especially Cooper as Governor of North Carolina, the state now having 17 Electoral Votes, and with a competitive governor race in the Tar Heel State. Well you are already down £100 www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-30/kamala-harris-vice-president-race-narrows/104160154Bugger. Why? Governor Cooper too conservative? Cooper would be over 70 by the end of a full term as VP, of course.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 30, 2024 9:35:23 GMT
Bugger. Why? Governor Cooper too conservative? These things always get whittled down, I doubt it’s anything against him as such
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Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 9:37:07 GMT
Bugger. Why? Governor Cooper too conservative? These things always get whittled down, I doubt it’s anything against him as such He could've helped deliver North Carolina for Kamala, but maybe that's overplaying his importance on the ticket.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 30, 2024 9:54:44 GMT
These things always get whittled down, I doubt it’s anything against him as such He could've helped deliver North Carolina for Kamala, but maybe that's overplaying his importance on the ticket. Even purely thinking of it from that point of view Shapiro is the better choice. Trump won North Carolina twice and while I don’t think the Democrats need to entirely rule it out the most important thing by far is defending the swing states Biden won in 2020
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 30, 2024 9:54:47 GMT
On July 29, the Maine Secretary of State says the Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. petition has enough valid signatures to be on the ballot paper.
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islington
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Post by islington on Jul 30, 2024 10:24:48 GMT
He could've helped deliver North Carolina for Kamala, but maybe that's overplaying his importance on the ticket. Even purely thinking of it from that point of view Shapiro is the better choice. Trump won North Carolina twice and while I don’t think the Democrats need to entirely rule it out the most important thing by far is defending the swing states Biden won in 2020 Exactly.
According to EV as of today, polling has Harris (or Biden) ahead in 19 states (and DC) totalling 226 electoral votes. If she holds those, she needs only Pa (19), Mi (15) and Wi (10) for 270. So from her point of view, although NC (16) is obviously a 'nice to have', Pa is a 'must have'.
This assumes she gets all 4 EVs from Me and doesn't miss out on the Trumpier Me-2. If she loses that and all else is the same, a 269-269 tie would throw the election to the House where Trump would likely prevail. But Harris can afford to lose Me-2 if she wins the relatively Dem-friendly Ne-2.
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Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 16:21:14 GMT
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