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Post by stb12 on May 6, 2024 13:05:47 GMT
I'm going to be such a bore on this: ABC/Ipsos national polling All adults Trump leads 46-44 Registered voters Biden leads 46-45 Likely voters Biden leads 49-45. If a poll isn't LV, be sceptical. I think the overall lesson is that it will be tight again (even if that just means in terms of the swing state margins)
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 6, 2024 14:15:42 GMT
I'm going to be such a bore on this: ABC/Ipsos national polling All adults Trump leads 46-44 Registered voters Biden leads 46-45 Likely voters Biden leads 49-45. If a poll isn't LV, be sceptical. I think the overall lesson is that it will be tight again (even if that just means in terms of the swing state margins) I tend to agree. My feeling is though that it's Biden with a narrow lead, not Trump, although the visuals of the campus protests are a concern, it's not a good look for Biden atm.
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Post by stb12 on May 6, 2024 17:23:02 GMT
I think the overall lesson is that it will be tight again (even if that just means in terms of the swing state margins) I tend to agree. My feeling is though that it's Biden with a narrow lead, not Trump, although the visuals of the campus protests are a concern, it's not a good look for Biden atm. Biden certainly enjoyed a recovery from February to April time, probably something of a SOTU bounce. But it seems to have halted and arguably gone slightly backwards Worryingly for the Democrats aside from the head-to-head contest numbers there’s polling evidence that a majority/plurality of voters are viewing Trump’s presidency as more of a success policy wise than Biden’s has been, and that Trump is more trusted on most key policy areas Of course with Trump’s well known personal failings and the legal troubles that can be overcome but there’s a big challenge
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Post by markgoodair on May 8, 2024 8:02:23 GMT
On May 7, the Independent Party of Delaware, which is ballot-qualified, announced that it has nominated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., for president. The party has been on the ballot since 2000, but it usually abstains from running anyone for president. The only time it ever previously ran anyone for president was in 2004 and 2008, when it ran Ralph Nader.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
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Post by weld on May 8, 2024 9:45:48 GMT
A solid showing for Haley in the Hoosier State - it seems like a sizeable proportion of Republicans aren't willing to vote for Trump. It won't matter in Indiana, but it will matter in states like Georgia (where former GOP Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan has endorsed Joe Biden).
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 8, 2024 10:24:01 GMT
A solid showing for Haley in the Hoosier State - it seems like a sizeable proportion of Republicans aren't willing to vote for Trump. It won't matter in Indiana, but it will matter in states like Georgia (where former GOP Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan has endorsed Joe Biden). If the stakes weren't quite so high, it would be really fun* to watch and analyse this election to see what happens with those Haley votes. I mean, more than a fifth of the votes? That's a sign of something. *To clarify, it's still fun - just with an edge to it.
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 8, 2024 16:59:41 GMT
Former Speaker Paul Ryan has said he won't vote for Trump.
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Post by markgoodair on May 8, 2024 18:02:36 GMT
A solid showing for Haley in the Hoosier State - it seems like a sizeable proportion of Republicans aren't willing to vote for Trump. It won't matter in Indiana, but it will matter in states like Georgia (where former GOP Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan has endorsed Joe Biden). Was it an open primary ?
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 8, 2024 19:33:13 GMT
A solid showing for Haley in the Hoosier State - it seems like a sizeable proportion of Republicans aren't willing to vote for Trump. It won't matter in Indiana, but it will matter in states like Georgia (where former GOP Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan has endorsed Joe Biden). Was it an open primary ? I'd seen it described as semi-closed, but on further investigation, it's closer to open: Indiana law says you can only vote in the primary of the voter you have voted for in the most recent election or are intending to vote for in the next election. That presumably predates secret ballots! And hence is unenforceable.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on May 9, 2024 0:04:23 GMT
It is not news that a significant number of voters are less than enthused by the presumptive nominees of both major parties. In any states with Haley on the ballot there will be a significant protest for her and the same would probably happen on the Democrat side if there was a vaguely credible alternative to Biden on the ballot. Chances are partisans on both sides come home in November.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 9, 2024 21:02:13 GMT
Noted in the FT: this year features student unrest and someone named Robert Kennedy seeking the office of president, an ageing chief struggling with popularity, and a Democratic convention in Chicago.
Hmmmm.
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 10, 2024 9:48:54 GMT
Quinnipiac have a Wisconsin poll that puts Biden up 50-44. But it's RVs, so calm your jets.
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Post by willpower3 on May 13, 2024 22:10:10 GMT
The Labour Party in Britain won in 1997 in part due to taking a leaf out of the U.S. Democratic Party's book. This year the latter could do with taking a leaf out of the former's book. Focus on stuff that actually matters to most people, don't get bogged down in cultural warrior nonsense.
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Post by aargauer on May 14, 2024 6:25:29 GMT
The Labour Party in Britain won in 1997 in part due to taking a leaf out of the U.S. Democratic Party's book. This year the latter could do with taking a leaf out of the former's book. Focus on stuff that actually matters to most people, don't get bogged down in cultural warrior nonsense. The latter are in opposition. While Starmer has run a tight ship on anything controversial as of late (dont recall anything that noteworthy since the knee incident), that's not an option for government.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on May 14, 2024 10:37:52 GMT
Well it maybe works both ways.
In government you are much more at the mercy of "events", but having far greater power to set the wider political agenda somewhat counteracts that.
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Post by timmullen on May 15, 2024 15:54:07 GMT
CNN has announced the first televised debate of the general election will take place at their Atlanta studios on 27 June.
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Post by stb12 on May 15, 2024 16:06:33 GMT
CNN has announced the first televised debate of the general election will take place at their Atlanta studios on 27 June. A debate before the National Conventions must be a bit unusual?
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Post by timmullen on May 15, 2024 16:21:43 GMT
CNN has announced the first televised debate of the general election will take place at their Atlanta studios on 27 June. A debate before the National Conventions must be a bit unusual? Yes, probably has advantages for both sides - it allows Trump to talk to a wider audience about something other than his legal travails but it also allows Biden to paint Trump as an “extremist” early in the hope that Trump can’t shake off the label on the campaign trail.
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tomc
Conservative
Posts: 720
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Post by tomc on May 16, 2024 10:42:59 GMT
CNN has announced the first televised debate of the general election will take place at their Atlanta studios on 27 June. This could be a disaster for either or both of them. Certainly fun for bystanders though.
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Post by timmullen on May 16, 2024 10:47:23 GMT
CNN has announced the first televised debate of the general election will take place at their Atlanta studios on 27 June. This could be a disaster for either or both of them. Certainly fun for bystanders though. There will also be a 10 September one (interesting to go so close to 9/11) hosted by ABC News.
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