Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Dec 1, 2020 0:24:20 GMT
What are the machanics of fighting by-elections in current circumstances? Leafletting. Telephones. Canvassing? Physical knocking-up? "M.D." in Private Eye recommends the wheelbarrow position. |
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 1, 2020 17:21:00 GMT
What are the machanics of fighting by-elections in current circumstances? Leafletting. Telephones. Canvassing? Physical knocking-up? It may depend on the level of covid restrictions that apply to the ward. As a general guideline leafleting and telephones are probably fine whilst canvassing and physical knocking-up probably aren't. I'm less sure about telling. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 1, 2020 18:06:43 GMT
What are the machanics of fighting by-elections in current circumstances? Leafletting. Telephones. Canvassing? Physical knocking-up? It may depend on the level of covid restrictions that apply to the ward. As a general guideline leafleting and telephones are probably fine whilst canvassing and physical knocking-up probably aren't. I'm less sure about telling. it is ungentlemanly to knock up and tell. |
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Dec 1, 2020 20:00:23 GMT
It may depend on the level of covid restrictions that apply to the ward. As a general guideline leafleting and telephones are probably fine whilst canvassing and physical knocking-up probably aren't. I'm less sure about telling. it is ungentlemanly to knock up and tell. It's far more irresponsible to knock up and run away! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2020 13:10:19 GMT
What are the machanics of fighting by-elections in current circumstances? Leafletting. Telephones. Canvassing? Physical knocking-up? This is actually a fair question, a party on the defensive anyway - as SLab currently is - likely won't find the present restrictions on campaigning to their advantage. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Dec 2, 2020 13:34:56 GMT
What would have happened if non-transferable received more votes than the final candidate? (I’d also love to know why 1 UKIP voted switched to LD.) |
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pl
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Post by pl on Dec 2, 2020 13:48:57 GMT
What would have happened if non-transferable received more votes than the final candidate? Nothing, nothing at all. They are non-transferable rather than Re-Open Nomination votes (I’d also love to know why 1 UKIP voted switched to LD.) I'm sure pre-EU referendum you'd have seen loads of these in South West England had we used STV. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 2, 2020 14:45:22 GMT
What would have happened if non-transferable received more votes than the final candidate? (I’d also love to know why 1 UKIP voted switched to LD.) Transferrable votes can lead to strange bedfellows; in Stoke’s first election for Elected Mayor, held when the BNP were at their electoral high point, their transfers overwhelmingly went to independent Mike Wolfe allowing him to overtake George Stevenson. The fact Wolfe was Chair of the Asylum Seekers and Refugee Support Group, Vice Chair of the Campaign Against Racism and Fascism, an openly gay proponent of increased gay rights including the establishment of a Pride festival in the City, didn’t seem to bother them overly. In the recent Queensland state election the defeat of former Labor Deputy Premier Jackie Trad to the Green’s Amy McMahon in South Brisbane was purely a result of the LNP preferencing McMahon ahead of Trad, the only electorate in the State in which they put the Greens ahead of Labor. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 2, 2020 15:14:04 GMT
In the recent Queensland state election the defeat of former Labor Deputy Premier Jackie Trad to the Green’s Amy McMahon in South Brisbane was purely a result of the LNP preferencing McMahon ahead of Trad, the only electorate in the State in which they put the Greens ahead of Labor. No it wasn’t - the Greens were clearly ahead of Labor on first preferences. Also, the LNP preferenced Labor behind the Greens in every seat. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 2, 2020 15:18:16 GMT
In the recent Queensland state election the defeat of former Labor Deputy Premier Jackie Trad to the Green’s Amy McMahon in South Brisbane was purely a result of the LNP preferencing McMahon ahead of Trad, the only electorate in the State in which they put the Greens ahead of Labor. No it wasn’t - the Greens were clearly ahead of Labor on first preferences. Also, the LNP preferenced Labor behind the Greens in every seat. Sorry, sad that am but I’ve been watching the ABC’s election programme and according to Antony Green it’s LNP transfers that made the difference, and the LNP Deputy Leader said it was the only electorate in which they preferenced the Greens above the ALP and how it was purely personal against Trad. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 2, 2020 15:54:58 GMT
What would have happened if non-transferable received more votes than the final candidate? Nothing, nothing at all. They are non-transferable rather than Re-Open Nomination votes You do get all manner of bizarre assumptions with AV not helped by too many organisations trying to write the rules themselves rather than just using a standard set and creating problems because of situations their rules don't anticipate too well. I remember once counting a student election where one candidate was running ahead so much that by the last three they had over 50% of the continuing vote but not 50% of the initial/initial-post-RON vote (*) and being told firmly that we had to continue to transfer the next lowest candidate and that anyone who pointed out this was unnecessary didn't know what they were talking about. (* In those days Kent students' union had a ridiculous rule that you could either vote & transfer between candidates or you could vote for RON and votes for it were non-transferable. In the first round of an election RON had to win under FPTP for nominations to re-open. Otherwise RON & all votes for them were removed from the count. Nobody could ever give a convincing argument for it - just some nonsense about "it is immoral to vote 'either this person or no-one'".) To some extent the final two or even final one rounds the counting computers come out with fall into this category although it maybe a byproduct of keeping the code simple. The first West Midlands mayoral election had some Communist 1 Conservative 2 votes spotted at counts. Down under there is a legend that Robert Menzies only scraped re-election in 1961 because of Communist to Liberal transfers. (The truth is more complex but it has remained a running attack on the far left.) |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 2, 2020 16:15:01 GMT
Transferrable votes can lead to strange bedfellows; ... In the recent Queensland state election the defeat of former Labor Deputy Premier Jackie Trad to the Green’s Amy McMahon in South Brisbane was purely a result of the LNP preferencing McMahon ahead of Trad, the only electorate in the State in which they put the Greens ahead of Labor. The compulsory preferencing rules (which Queensland now has) have given the Liberals/LNP some real problems in deciding the order on their How To Vote cards. Traditionally the big parties don't expect their preferences to be distributed or at most to help a sufficiently agreeable independent prise a seat out of their opponents' hands and so HTV preferences were ordered with the competing principles of what is the easiest sequence to transcribe (to ensure the vote for them is valid thus a lot of semi-donkey voting) and which significant parties are so beyond the pale that they have to be put last (because of the potential political storm). Balancing these is a tricky task and many a major HTV has put a fringe extremist above last because a simple order to follow is deemed more important than worrying about irrelevant candidates. Occasionally this has created a minor storm depending on just where on the irrelevant ignorable -> significant party beyond the pale scale One Nation falls into in any given election. The growth of the Greens has meant the Liberals have found they have to make a more active choice on Labor vs Green. Back in the 2000s they virtually always opted for Greens over Labor (subject to simple order first considerations) and Adam Bandt first won Melbourne in 2010 because of Liberal preferences. But as the Greens have grown as a force and been exercising a greater leftwards pull on Labor there's been increasing pressure for the Liberals to put them below Labor in at least seats where this could make a difference. The Victorian Liberals adopted this strategy from the late 2010 state election and prevented the Greens repeating their federal success. For the most part the Liberals now preference Labor over Greens but do sometimes vary depending on the situation in individual states or seats. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 2, 2020 16:20:35 GMT
For the record on South Brisbane here are the raw figures:
2020 Queensland state election: South Brisbane Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Greens Amy MacMahon 12,631 37.89 +3.54
Labor Jackie Trad 11,471 34.41 −1.59
Liberal National Clem Grehan 7,616 22.85 −1.49
One Nation Rosalie Taxis 573 1.72 +1.72
Independent John Meyer 441 1.32 +1.32
Independent John Jiggens 398 1.19 +1.19
United Australia Marcus Thorne 206 0.62 +0.62
Total formal votes 33,336 97.42 +1.07
Informal votes 882 2.58 −1.07
Turnout 34,218 87.98 +4.26
Two-candidate-preferred result
Greens Amy MacMahon 18,450 55.35 +8.90
Labor Jackie Trad 14,886 44.65 −8.90
Greens gain from Labor Swing +8.90
Trad was narrowly trailing MacMahon on first preferences but with about a quarter of the vote going to the Liberals or other parties on the right it was quite likely a standard Liberal recommendation would have seen Trad win. In 2017 Trad only narrowly led MacMahon on first preferences but widened on mainly Liberal transfers.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 2, 2020 16:22:21 GMT
No it wasn’t - the Greens were clearly ahead of Labor on first preferences. Also, the LNP preferenced Labor behind the Greens in every seat. Sorry, sad that am but I’ve been watching the ABC’s election programme and according to Antony Green it’s LNP transfers that made the difference, and the LNP Deputy Leader said it was the only electorate in which they preferenced the Greens above the ALP and how it was purely personal against Trad. Well the LNP transfers did make the difference in that they put the Greens over 50%, but that party was already ahead of Labor. The Greens led by 1,160 on first preferences, and by 1,279 prior to the LNP’s elimination. Trad would have needed 58% of LNP preferences to win. The LNP preferenced Labor last in every seat: www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12732654 |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 2, 2020 17:06:54 GMT
With regard to the Communist to Conservative transfers, the Labour candidate was Sion Simon so those voters opted for Andy Street, the more left wing of the two
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Post by tonygreaves on Dec 2, 2020 17:14:08 GMT
I remember talking to a resident of my ward I knew, in the heyday of the BNP in East Lancs (I think 2004 when I was standing to return to the Council when it was on the same day as the Euros.) He told me he was voting for the BNP in the Euros and that nice man Nick Griffin. "I'm canvassing for the Council elections though." "Oh - I'll vote for them in that as well." "But they are not standing a candidate". "Oh I'll have to think about it then." I saw him again when I was delivering a thank-you leaflet after I had got elected. "Hello - who did you vote for then in the Council election?" "Well, Tony, I voted for you. The best of a very bad choice."
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 2, 2020 19:15:21 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 2, 2020 19:28:56 GMT
No it wasn’t, and that link doesn’t say otherwise. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 2, 2020 19:33:12 GMT
Sorry I read that as the Greens last.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2020 2:15:10 GMT
I remember talking to a resident of my ward I knew, in the heyday of the BNP in East Lancs (I think 2004 when I was standing to return to the Council when it was on the same day as the Euros.) He told me he was voting for the BNP in the Euros and that nice man Nick Griffin. "I'm canvassing for the Council elections though." "Oh - I'll vote for them in that as well." "But they are not standing a candidate". "Oh I'll have to think about it then." I saw him again when I was delivering a thank-you leaflet after I had got elected. "Hello - who did you vote for then in the Council election?" "Well, Tony, I voted for you. The best of a very bad choice." One of the first canvasses I ever did (for the 2016 council elections), me and mum found a voter who told us "yep, 2 postal votes for Labour gone in the post this morning. Might be different come the general election though, I might be looking for a BNP candidate". This was followed by the obligatory "too much bloody immigration" comment. Needless to say most of the people on that street had been brought up within a 500 metre radius of that street |
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