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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 27, 2020 12:46:38 GMT
Note these changes are from the by election not the result from the election in 2017 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2020 12:47:21 GMT
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 27, 2020 12:48:00 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2020 12:54:09 GMT
Good to have by-elections (and Britain Elects) back
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Nov 27, 2020 12:56:27 GMT
Good to have by-elections (and Britain Elects) back and Lib Dem gains... |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 27, 2020 13:04:35 GMT
Perth & Kinross, Perth City North - SNP hold - based on first preference votes | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 |
| since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,406 | 61.0% | +12.5% |
| +11.0% | +18.3% | | Conservative | 528 | 22.9% | -2.7% |
| +12.5% | +9.5% | | Labour | 220 | 9.5% | -6.3% |
| -26.9% | -21.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 91 | 3.9% | +0.5% |
| +0.8% | -6.1% | | Green | 60 | 2.6% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | +0.1% | | Independent 1 |
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| -3.1% |
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| | Independent 2 |
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| -2.5% |
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| | Independent 3 |
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| -1.0% |
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| | Total votes | 2,305 |
| 63% | | 58% | 44% |
assumes boundary changes made little difference to the 2012 and 2007 figures Swing Conservative to SNP ~ 7½% since 2017, but main contributory factor appears reduced Labour share Council now Conservative 17, SNP 14, Liberal Democrat 5, Independents 3, Labour 1
Perth & Kinross, Perth City South - Liberal Democrat gain from SNP- based on first preference votes | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 B | since 2017 |
| since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,898 | 32.9% | +0.8% | +7.1% | | +5.3% | +10.1% | | Liberal Democrat | 1,823 | 31.6% | +2.8% | -3.1% |
| +0.1% | -4.5% | | Conservative | 1,698 | 29.4% | -1.8% | +4.2% |
| +8.1% | +2.9% | | Labour | 204 | 3.5% | -2.1% | -2.8% |
| -7.5% | -8.4% | | Green | 135 | 2.3% | +0.5% | -0.7% |
| -2.2% | from nowhere | | UKIP | 18 | 0.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independents |
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| -0.5% | -3.6% |
| -4.2% | -2.9% | | Independent |
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| -1.4% |
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| | Total votes | 5,776 |
| 104% | 83% |
| 115% | 86% |
assumes boundary changes made little difference to the 2012 and 2007 figures.
Swing not particularly meaningful in a close 3 way contest.
Council now Conservative 17, SNP 14, Liberal Democrat 5, Independent 3, Labour 1
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 27, 2020 13:06:43 GMT
Good to have by-elections (and Britain Elects) back This week's were the last until at least January, and possibly March. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Nov 27, 2020 13:11:28 GMT
Wouldn't normally be celebrating a Lib Dem win, but when its a gain from the SNP I am glad of it. What is most suprising here though is the huge divergence in turnout between two adjacent urban wards.
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 27, 2020 13:11:54 GMT
Good to have by-elections (and Britain Elects) back and Lib Dem gains... Well two out of three are welcome. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 27, 2020 13:20:07 GMT
Wouldn't normally be celebrating a Lib Dem win, but when its a gain from the SNP I am glad of it. What is most suprising here though is the huge divergence in turnout between two adjacent urban wards.North was probably seen as a foregone conclusion, so nobody put much effort into it. South was a 3-way marginal, kitchen sinks would have been deployed. |
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Post by northbriton on Nov 27, 2020 13:24:05 GMT
Perth & Kinross, Perth City North - SNP hold - based on first preference votes | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 |
| since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,406 | 61.0% | +12.5% |
| +11.0% | +18.3% | | Conservative | 528 | 22.9% | -2.7% |
| +12.5% | +9.5% | | Labour | 220 | 9.5% | -6.3% |
| -26.9% | -21.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 91 | 3.9% | +0.5% |
| +0.8% | -6.1% | | Green | 60 | 2.6% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | +0.1% | | Independent 1 |
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| -3.1% |
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| | Independent 2 |
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| -2.5% |
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| | Independent 3 |
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| -1.0% |
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| | Total votes | 2,305 |
| 63% | | 58% | 44% |
assumes boundary changes made little difference to the 2012 and 2007 figures Swing Conservative to SNP ~ 7½% since 2017, but main contributory factor appears reduced Labour share Council now Conservative 17, SNP 14, Liberal Democrat 5, Independents 3, Labour 1
Perth & Kinross, Perth City South - Liberal Democrat gain- based on first preference votes | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 B | since 2017 |
| since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,898 | 32.9% | +0.8% | +7.1% | | +5.3% | +10.1% | | Liberal Democrat | 1,823 | 31.6% | +2.8% | -3.1% |
| +0.1% | -4.5% | | Conservative | 1,698 | 29.4% | -1.8% | +4.2% |
| +8.1% | +2.9% | | Labour | 204 | 3.5% | -2.1% | -2.8% |
| -7.5% | -8.4% | | Green | 135 | 2.3% | +0.5% | -0.7% |
| -2.2% | from nowhere | | UKIP | 18 | 0.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independents |
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| -0.5% | -3.6% |
| -4.2% | -2.9% | | Independent |
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| -1.4% |
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| | Total votes | 5,776 |
| 104% | 83% |
| 115% | 86% |
assumes boundary changes made little difference to the 2012 and 2007 figures.
Swing not particularly meaningful in a close 3 way contest.
Council now Conservative 17, SNP 14, Liberal Democrat 5, Independent 3, Labour 1
My take on all the recent Scottish by-elections is that SNP are up where these is a Labour vote to squeeze but treading water otherwise. Tory vote is pretty solid which will please them as the baseline is May 2017 when they did very well indeed - and gained 12 Westminster seats a month later. We could really have done with some Central Belt contests to be sure. Quite what this all presages for next May, who knows, still some water to flow under the bridge before we get there. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 27, 2020 13:47:54 GMT
Wouldn't normally be celebrating a Lib Dem win, but when its a gain from the SNP I am glad of it. What is most suprising here though is the huge divergence in turnout between two adjacent urban wards.North was probably seen as a foregone conclusion, so nobody put much effort into it. South was a 3-way marginal, kitchen sinks would have been deployed. I wonder whether the result in North would have differed much if there had not been a South election at the same time. Presumably it made a considerable difference to the effort put in by Tories and, especially, Lib Dems in North. Labour on the other hand have no such excuse for a poor performance in North and just look to be in free fall. |
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Post by robert1 on Nov 27, 2020 13:50:32 GMT
Taking 2017 as the base, recent by-elections give:- SNP Con Lab LD Grn Aberdeenshire +10.6 +0.8 -4.7 -9.5 Aberdeen + 6.7 - 1.3 -5.3 -1.6 +1.7 Edinburgh + 1.8 - 4.7 -7.2 +4.2 +4.1 Clacks + 1.8 +9.7 -12.1 -1.4 +2.0 Perth N +12.5 -2.7 -6.3 +0.5 +2.6 Perth S +7.1 +4.2 -2.8 -3.1 -0.7 After 6 'rounds' it would appear that only the SNP is a true gainer with Labour the continual loser. In Perth S, given the by-election result, it seemed likely that whichever of the two, LD and Tories, were ahead on first round would gain the seat.
As can be seen from middleenglander's figures, it seems likely (though not certain) that the SNP were the big gainers from the absence of the independents.
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Post by greenhert on Nov 27, 2020 21:42:20 GMT
North was probably seen as a foregone conclusion, so nobody put much effort into it. South was a 3-way marginal, kitchen sinks would have been deployed. I wonder whether the result in North would have differed much if there had not been a South election at the same time. Presumably it made a considerable difference to the effort put in by Tories and, especially, Lib Dems in North. Labour on the other hand have no such excuse for a poor performance in North and just look to be in free fall. They are in most of Scotland, not just Perth. Often in Scottish elections, it is now a case of "unionist vs. nationalist" just like in Northern Ireland; their biggest vote share falls were in constituencies clearly only competitive between the SNP and the Conservatives or where their star had faded completely (e.g. in Ayrshire, where Labour finished third in every constituency in that county in 2019), leaving the Conservatives as the default opposition to the SNP. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 27, 2020 21:56:40 GMT
I wonder whether the result in North would have differed much if there had not been a South election at the same time. Presumably it made a considerable difference to the effort put in by Tories and, especially, Lib Dems in North. Labour on the other hand have no such excuse for a poor performance in North and just look to be in free fall. They are in most of Scotland, not just Perth. Often in Scottish elections, it is now a case of "unionist vs. nationalist" just like in Northern Ireland; their biggest vote share falls were in constituencies clearly only competitive between the SNP and the Conservatives or where their star had faded completely (e.g. in Ayrshire, where Labour finished third in every constituency in that county in 2019), leaving the Conservatives as the default opposition to the SNP. I can't see that changing until the independence issue is sorted |
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 28, 2020 19:27:39 GMT
I know both wards well. They are chalk and cheese. Turnout is a reflection of socio-economic reality. Nothing to do with marginality? |
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Post by markgoodair on Nov 30, 2020 13:19:35 GMT
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Post by matureleft on Nov 30, 2020 13:35:21 GMT
What are the machanics of fighting by-elections in current circumstances? Leafletting. Telephones. Canvassing? Physical knocking-up?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2020 15:03:01 GMT
Can somebody (admin or post creator) please amend the thread title to edit out the errant upper-case 'O'? It's very petty and OCD of me, but that really gets on my tits - probably because it's the kind of typo I make so frequently myself..
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 30, 2020 15:55:26 GMT
Can somebody (admin or post creator) please amend the thread title to edit out the errant upper-case 'O'? It's very petty and OCD of me, but that really gets on my tits - probably because it's the kind of typo I make so frequently myself.. Just for you, Pete... |
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