Montenegrin elections

[Georg Ebner]

Will have happened today.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Montenegrin_parliamentary_election

Red-Greeners here can be happy: Nearly all parties&coalitions are either at/around PES (DPS, SDP, SD, SNP) or EGP (URA). Only "Peace is our nation/MNN" (Demos & Democr.Montenegro) is labelled as "centrist".
Realiter the cleavage is generally between proWestern (~independence~EU~NATO) liberals and proEastern (~Serbia~Russia~China) authoritarians.
In 2025 M. hopes to join the EU (or rather: its funds), thus even the proSerbian opposition-coalition is not more than "euro-sceptic".

[Georg Ebner]

Census 2011:

Ethnies:

Languages:

[Georg Ebner]

The linguistic map demonstrates, that M. is endangered to become a (very small) DonBass.

[Georg Ebner]

OpinionPolls (obviously taken from wikipedia):

[Georg Ebner]

DPS: The exCommies/apparatshik-mafia, being ininterrupted in charge since 1945 (!). Since 2000 (Milosevic-collapse) supportive of independence/EU/NATO.

SDP: "Reformistic" Commies, proIndendence from the beginning.

SD: The proDPS-wing of SDP. Honoured by DPS as CoalitionPartner.

DF: "Right-wing" = proSerbian/...; itself a coalition.
PCG: Idem.
UCG: Idem.
SNP: "Socially conservative" SocialDemocrats.

Demos: "Centre-right" proEU.
Dem.CG: Idem.

URA: Leftliberal academics. Inevitably proWestern.

BS: "Bosniaks" (=Slavic Muslims).

Forca&AA: Albanians (Muslims&Catholics).

[Georg Ebner]

Electoral Commission:

dik.co.me/izbori/za-izbor-poslanika-u-skupstinu-crne-gore/2020-3-god/

Public TeleVision-channel (live-stream):

www.rtcg.me/tv/tv-uzivo.html

[Georg Ebner]

PollingStations closed now (20.00 MET).
At 19.00 75% had voted.

[Georg Ebner]

The EC released some numbers (58.3% is counted):

34.4% = 29 DPS
33.5% = 29 proSerbian/Russian-coalition (DF,...)
12.5% = 10 rightliberal MNN
05.0% = 04 leftliberal URA+
04.5% = 03 BS (Bosnians/Muslims)
04.3% = 03 SocialDemocrats/SD (DPS-CoalitionPartner)
03.0% = 00 SDP (anti-DPS Socialdemocrats)
01.4% = 02 Albanians 1
01.1% = 01 Albanians 2

[Georg Ebner]

The success of the proEastern-bloc is spectacular and an anti-DPS-coalition won't be not impossible (at least for a short period), but unlikely: The "Asiatic" bloc is isolated, the proWestern camp includes all other parties.

[Adam in Stroud]

Thanks for all this Georg Ebner, this is completely unreported in mainstream UK media

[Georg Ebner]

82% done:

/photo/1

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

2016:

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

In Montenegro were yesterDay early elections for the parliament proclaimed (for June, the governing 41/81-majority will go to the courts) by president Djukanovic, who is up for reElection toDay.
As expected, the broad coalition against his DPS has been chaotic; nevertheless the party ruling the country for 30 years (and as the exCommunists since 1945) has not recovered very well in the wilderness, on the contrary. Yet to be seen, whether and how the antiDPS-bloc can find together.
Djukanovic (supported by the usual DPS-allies [Lib.P/LP, Soc.Dem./SD, nat.minorities {Albanians, Bosniaks, Croats, Roma}]) will doubtlessly reach the runOff, also according to this opinionPoll (with partly the wrong candidates):

Presently on the rise within the proWest/NATO/EU-camp is a new party ("EU now!"), whose candidate Milatovic is not listed, though. Mandic is the man of DF, so proSerbian and proRussian (but has toned down on that). Becic is from the Dem. (EPP-member), endorsed by the midleft URA. Mrs. Vuksanovic is from the small SDP (naturally a PES-assoc.). Danilovic (also not polled) represents the cons. UnitedM./UCG. Radulovic (Ind.) is an interNet-"inFluencer". RunOffs (Spajic does not run):

[Georg Ebner]

"EuropeNow/ES" made it indeed into the runOff (and should be highly favoured to prevail):

A defeat would be the end - at least being uninterrupted in an official position for over 30 years - of Djukanovic.

[rcronald]

Mar 20, 2023 4:44:06 GMT Georg Ebner said:

"EuropeNow/ES" made it indeed into the runOff (and should be highly favoured to prevail):

A defeat would be the end - at least being uninterrupted in an official position for over 30 years - of Djukanovic.

Very happy for Montenegro, Milatović seems very competent.

[Georg Ebner]

Mar 20, 2023 5:00:03 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 20, 2023 4:44:06 GMT Georg Ebner said:

"EuropeNow/ES" made it indeed into the runOff (and should be highly favoured to prevail):

A defeat would be the end - at least being uninterrupted in an official position for over 30 years - of Djukanovic.

Very happy for Montenegro, Milatović seems very competent.

Well, that's, what our "liberal" (=left) journaille writes. So reason to be veeeery cautious.