Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 28, 2020 18:26:25 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 28, 2020 19:11:59 GMT
Not the only one Georg!  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2020 20:15:03 GMT
I'm surprised by just how many seats there are where Alliance need a swing of less than 10% |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 28, 2020 20:26:56 GMT
Thank you and you're not unworthy! |
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Post by greenhert on Aug 28, 2020 20:55:29 GMT
Boundary changes will make these lists irrelevant. The passing of the Parliamentary Constituencies Bill (which is at committee stage in the House of Lords and will be next heard on 8 September) is basically a foregone conclusion and the review will be completed in time for a 2024 general election. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2020 21:12:40 GMT
Boundary changes will make these lists irrelevant. The passing of the Parliamentary Constituencies Bill (which is at committee stage in the House of Lords and will be next heard on 8 September) is basically a foregone conclusion and the review will be completed in time for a 2024 general election. Not completely irrelevant because very few of these boundaries will be redrawn completely enough to be unrecognisable |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 28, 2020 23:45:46 GMT
Not the only one Georg! Right, but 1 Luxemburger (?) is some kind of a Cornish (or vice versa?) and a FrenchMan and an Indian can be counted - because of Your past possessions - also as Britons ... |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 29, 2020 5:05:20 GMT
Not the only one Georg! Right, but 1 Luxemburger (?) is some kind of a Cornish (or vice versa?) and a FrenchMan and an Indian can be counted - because of Your past possessions - also as Britons ... That’s for them to decide.🔮 If previous possessions mean that then I can be counted as Danish, what's does approximately 1000 years of since Danelaw matter. 😁 |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 29, 2020 8:28:17 GMT
Not the only one Georg! Right, but 1 Luxemburger (?) is some kind of a Cornish (or vice versa?) and a FrenchMan and an Indian can be counted - because of Your past possessions - also as Britons ... I was discussing this with a friend a couple of days ago in the context of post-1948 immigration and Rule Britannia. Indians, Jamaicans, Kenyans, Ghanians, etc. etc. weren't Britons, they were British. "Britons never shall be slaves" was extended to "British shall not be slaves". |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2020 10:35:42 GMT
Thanks for these links Georg. Such lists are ever interesting and clearly show the huge vulnerability of both majors to even a uniform 5% swing. The GEs 2010 onwards have made a proportion of seats with large majorities and another with very small majorities, rather at the expense of the once quite settled centre which is much depleted. The general boundry review is not going to make a significant difference to that structural change..
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 11, 2020 12:35:26 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 11, 2020 12:58:41 GMT
This and Scotland make the path to an overall majority for Labour a nightmare |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2020 12:33:52 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,798
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2020 12:38:18 GMT
This and Scotland make the path to an overall majority for Labour a nightmare Right, but their future is clearly in the cities (and - as much as possible - the SubUrbs), not in the ex-industrial/mining towns. |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 12, 2020 15:52:32 GMT
The majority of rural voters would never vote Labour anyway, and the old agricultural East Anglian Labour vote has not existed for decades. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 12, 2020 16:55:42 GMT
The majority of rural voters would never vote Labour anyway, and the old agricultural East Anglian Labour vote has not existed for decades. This rather misses the point: a very large number of constituencies have a significant rural element and just writing those parts off completely means that you have to run up even larger numbers elsewhere. This FPTP-driven mentality has been very damaging for Labour. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 12, 2020 18:03:46 GMT
The majority of rural voters would never vote Labour anyway, and the old agricultural East Anglian Labour vote has not existed for decades. This rather misses the point: a very large number of constituencies have a significant rural element and just writing those parts off completely means that you have to run up even larger numbers elsewhere. This FPTP-driven mentality has been very damaging for Labour. We should once again refer honourable members to Clare Griffiths' excellent book "Labour and the Countryside". |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 12, 2020 18:18:55 GMT
This rather misses the point: a very large number of constituencies have a significant rural element and just writing those parts off completely means that you have to run up even larger numbers elsewhere. This FPTP-driven mentality has been very damaging for Labour. Similarly, Labour needs to avoid over compartmentalising the electorate (though they have not reached US style ‘college educated suburban women’ yet). Political analysis and strategy too often focuses on the differences between demographics rather than the significant overlaps in interests eg; the above report finds healthcare, transport and housing are important issues for rural voters, yet these are of course important issues for urban voters as well. Ultimately, when a party significantly increases its support with one group, it’s probably doing so with most others at the same time. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 12, 2020 18:29:30 GMT
Similarly, Labour needs to avoid over compartmentalising the electorate (though they have not reached US style ‘college educated suburban women’ yet). Political analysis and strategy too often focuses on the differences between demographics rather than the significant overlaps in interests eg; the above report finds healthcare, transport and housing are important issues for rural voters, yet these are of course important issues for urban voters as well. Ultimately, when a party significantly increases its support with one group, it’s probably doing so with most others at the same time. Absolutely. This has been one of Labour's biggest failings since shortly after (but not inclusive of) the 2001 election. Of course, Labour being Labour, this means that the same errors have been made in entirely contradictory directions since then! |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 12, 2020 20:05:34 GMT
Absolutely. This has been one of Labour's biggest failings since shortly after (but not inclusive of) the 2001 election. Of course, Labour being Labour, this means that the same errors have been made in entirely contradictory directions since then! Amazing to think that less than 5 years ago the consensus was that Labour needed to focus on middle class, economically small c conservative voters, but the consensus is now that they need to reconnect with perpetually angry authoritarian working class voters. Perhaps they just need a message that has an enduring appeal to a lot of people? |
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