neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Sept 29, 2020 7:39:10 GMT
Absolutely. This has been one of Labour's biggest failings since shortly after (but not inclusive of) the 2001 election. Of course, Labour being Labour, this means that the same errors have been made in entirely contradictory directions since then! Amazing to think that less than 5 years ago the consensus was that Labour needed to focus on middle class, economically small c conservative voters, but the consensus is now that they need to reconnect with perpetually angry authoritarian working class voters. Perhaps they just need a message that has an enduring appeal to a lot of people? I discussed after 2010 (on the old forum) how Labour could return to power, and summarised it as 'spending on infrastructure', specifically broadband. Angry WWC love that sort of thing and it's an easy sell to small c middle class voters. Unfortunately the message turned into 'free broadband for everyone.'
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Post by connor on Jan 8, 2021 19:52:52 GMT
There are some seats that would be interesting to watch come 2024 which may make the next election really significant.
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2021 10:05:03 GMT
Here are the 53 seats I think should be Labour's target seats at the next election. Notice I left some notionally marginal seats off the list for demographic reasons. See if you can guess the 3 demographic trends I used to make the list.
1. Kensington 2. Bolton North East 3. High Peak 4. Stoke-on-Trent Central 5. Chipping Barnet 6. Chingford and Woodford Green 7. Bridgend 8. Dewsbury 9. Warrington South 10. Birmingham Northfield 11. Wolverhampton South West 12. Keighley 13. West Bromwich East 14. Ynys Mon 15. Peterborough 16. Derby North 17. Stroud 18. Aberconwy 19. Pudsey 20. Vale of Glamorgan 21. Watford 22. Hendon 23. Wycombe 24. Truro and Falmouth 25. Reading West 26. Colne Valley 27. Southport 28. Stockton South 29. Broxtowe 30. Calder Valley 31. Milton Keynes North 32. Filton and Bradley Stoke 33. Milton Keynes South 34. West Bromwich West 35. Altrincham and Sale West 36. Northampton South 37. Shipley 38. Wolverhampton North East 39. Rushcliffe 40. Swindon South 41. Loughborough 42. Worcester 43. Pendle 44. Northampton North 45. Uxbridge and Ruislip South 46. Harrow East 47. Crawley 48. Colchester 49. Bournemouth East 50. Bolton West 51. York Outer 52.Shrewsbury and Atcham 53. Monmouth
Agree with this list? Are these the types of voters and seats Labour should be targeting?
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 22, 2021 10:15:59 GMT
Demographic groups: EMs, students/university/lecturers, high population density. I think I would have kept Leigh on the list though since the majority is only small.
TSTO both Stoke-on-Trent and Wolverhampton are going to be radically redrawn in a way that may abolish the target seats in both places.
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2021 10:19:36 GMT
Demographic groups: EMs, students/university/lecturers, high population density. I think I would have kept Leigh on the list though since the majority is only small. TSTO both Stoke-on-Trent and Wolverhampton are going to be radically redrawn in a way that may abolish the target seats in both places. In what way? Why do you think they'll be abolished as targets seats?
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2021 10:21:41 GMT
Demographic groups: EMs, students/university/lecturers, high population density. I think I would have kept Leigh on the list though since the majority is only small. TSTO both Stoke-on-Trent and Wolverhampton are going to be radically redrawn in a way that may abolish the target seats in both places. You got 2 out three right. EMs and graduates was right but there's one more
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Post by andrewp on Jan 22, 2021 10:45:41 GMT
As identified, potential boundary changes mean that some of these seats may look substantially different.
I don’t really see a reason to move Monmouth up from target 118 to 53 though. It’s generally a relatively low swing seat and I would Defitnely say is a much much less likely Labour gain than say Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South, which aren’t on your list.
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2021 10:53:24 GMT
As identified, potential boundary changes mean that some of these seats may look substantially different. I don’t really see a reason to move Monmouth up from target 118 to 53 though. It’s generally a relatively low swing seat and I would Defitnely say is a much much less likely Labour gain than say Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South, which aren’t on your list. VOC and CS don't meet my demographic criteria so you have to move further down the notional target list to put seats on the list
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Post by andrewp on Jan 22, 2021 10:58:22 GMT
As identified, potential boundary changes mean that some of these seats may look substantially different. I don’t really see a reason to move Monmouth up from target 118 to 53 though. It’s generally a relatively low swing seat and I would Defitnely say is a much much less likely Labour gain than say Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South, which aren’t on your list. VOC and CS don't meet my demographic criteria so you have to move further down the notional target list to put seats on the list Both of those seats are much more likely gains than Monmouth. Monmouth is the sort of the seat that would only be gained if Labour win 350+ seats in my opinion.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 22, 2021 11:01:21 GMT
Demographic groups: EMs, students/university/lecturers, high population density. I think I would have kept Leigh on the list though since the majority is only small. TSTO both Stoke-on-Trent and Wolverhampton are going to be radically redrawn in a way that may abolish the target seats in both places. Stoke will be radically redrawn but almost certainly in a way that helps Labour in Central whilst making South very Conservative and North pretty much unchanged, maybe ever so slightly more Labour friendly.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,261
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 22, 2021 11:18:20 GMT
It's idiotic, whatever it is. Internet Brain.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 22, 2021 11:56:59 GMT
Demographic groups: EMs, students/university/lecturers, high population density. I think I would have kept Leigh on the list though since the majority is only small. TSTO both Stoke-on-Trent and Wolverhampton are going to be radically redrawn in a way that may abolish the target seats in both places. You got 2 out three right. EMs and graduates was right but there's one more Go on then, I'm sure you are dying to tell us.....
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2021 11:59:20 GMT
You got 2 out three right. EMs and graduates was right but there's one more Go on then, I'm sure you are dying to tell us..... Below average leave vote, with largely overlaps with graduates anyway.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 22, 2021 12:02:47 GMT
Ah right.
The optimists amongst us might hope that by 2024 "leave" and "remain" have become just slightly less significant as determinants of voting behaviour.
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2021 12:10:34 GMT
Ah right. The optimists amongst us might hope that by 2024 "leave" and "remain" have become just slightly less significant as determinants of voting behaviour. I think "leave" and "remain" only amplified the divisions that were already there rather than created them IMO
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2021 21:02:23 GMT
Here are the seats I think Labour should defend, using the same demographic trends.
1. Bedford 2. Coventry North West 3. Dagenham and Rainham 4. Coventry South 5. Weaver Vale 6. Warwick and Leamington 7. Canterbury 8. Oldham East and Saddleworth 9. Wolverhampton South East 10. Gower 11.Lancaster and Fleetwood 12.Halifax 13.Bradford South 14.Batley and Spen 15. Wirral West 16. Eltham 17. Walsall South 18. Tynemouth 19. Rotherham 20. Erith and Thamesmead 21. Enfield Southgate 22. Battersea 23. Putney 24. Bristol North West 25. Sheffield South East 26. Birmingham Erdington 27. Durham, City of 28. Ilford North 29. Reading East
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 22, 2021 21:11:27 GMT
Here are the seats I think Labour should defend, using the same demographic trends. 1. Bedford 2. Coventry North West 3. Dagenham and Rainham 4. Coventry South 5. Weaver Vale 6. Warwick and Leamington 7. Canterbury 8. Oldham East and Saddleworth 9. Wolverhampton South East 10. Gower 11.Lancaster and Fleetwood 12.Halifax 13.Bradford South 14.Batley and Spen 15. Wirral West 16. Eltham 17. Walsall South 18. Tynemouth 19. Rotherham 20. Erith and Thamesmead 21. Enfield Southgate 22. Battersea 23. Putney 24. Bristol North West 25. Sheffield South East 26. Birmingham Erdington 27. Durham, City of 28. Ilford North 29. Reading East If you think those demographic trends are making seats more Labour, why would you invest huge resources into defending them? The bulk of that list are moving in their direction anyway. They'd be better served defending seats like Wansbeck, which have tiny majorities and are much more plausible losses than Tynemouth or City of Durham.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,487
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 22, 2021 22:39:01 GMT
Here are the 53 seats I think should be Labour's target seats at the next election. Notice I left some notionally marginal seats off the list for demographic reasons. See if you can guess the 3 demographic trends I used to make the list. 1. Kensington 2. Bolton North East 3. High Peak 4. Stoke-on-Trent Central 5. Chipping Barnet 6. Chingford and Woodford Green 7. Bridgend 8. Dewsbury 9. Warrington South 10. Birmingham Northfield 11. Wolverhampton South West 12. Keighley 13. West Bromwich East 14. Ynys Mon 15. Peterborough 16. Derby North 17. Stroud 18. Aberconwy 19. Pudsey 20. Vale of Glamorgan 21. Watford 22. Hendon 23. Wycombe 24. Truro and Falmouth 25. Reading West 26. Colne Valley 27. Southport 28. Stockton South 29. Broxtowe 30. Calder Valley 31. Milton Keynes North 32. Filton and Bradley Stoke 33. Milton Keynes South 34. West Bromwich West 35. Altrincham and Sale West 36. Northampton South 37. Shipley 38. Wolverhampton North East 39. Rushcliffe 40. Swindon South 41. Loughborough 42. Worcester 43. Pendle 44. Northampton North 45. Uxbridge and Ruislip South 46. Harrow East 47. Crawley 48. Colchester 49. Bournemouth East 50. Bolton West 51. York Outer 52.Shrewsbury and Atcham 53. Monmouth Agree with this list? Are these the types of voters and seats Labour should be targeting? Some of those are seats that Labour will never win outside a 1997 situation. Some of those are seats that will go Labour the next time they win an election (or the next time they lose the popular vote by under ten points) without any special work. Only a few of those are seats I would say should be targeted specifically
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2021 23:38:30 GMT
Here are the 53 seats I think should be Labour's target seats at the next election. Notice I left some notionally marginal seats off the list for demographic reasons. See if you can guess the 3 demographic trends I used to make the list. 1. Kensington 2. Bolton North East 3. High Peak 4. Stoke-on-Trent Central 5. Chipping Barnet 6. Chingford and Woodford Green 7. Bridgend 8. Dewsbury 9. Warrington South 10. Birmingham Northfield 11. Wolverhampton South West 12. Keighley 13. West Bromwich East 14. Ynys Mon 15. Peterborough 16. Derby North 17. Stroud 18. Aberconwy 19. Pudsey 20. Vale of Glamorgan 21. Watford 22. Hendon 23. Wycombe 24. Truro and Falmouth 25. Reading West 26. Colne Valley 27. Southport 28. Stockton South 29. Broxtowe 30. Calder Valley 31. Milton Keynes North 32. Filton and Bradley Stoke 33. Milton Keynes South 34. West Bromwich West 35. Altrincham and Sale West 36. Northampton South 37. Shipley 38. Wolverhampton North East 39. Rushcliffe 40. Swindon South 41. Loughborough 42. Worcester 43. Pendle 44. Northampton North 45. Uxbridge and Ruislip South 46. Harrow East 47. Crawley 48. Colchester 49. Bournemouth East 50. Bolton West 51. York Outer 52.Shrewsbury and Atcham 53. Monmouth Agree with this list? Are these the types of voters and seats Labour should be targeting? Some of those are seats that Labour will never win outside a 1997 situation. Some of those are seats that will go Labour the next time they win an election (or the next time they lose the popular vote by under ten points) without any special work. Only a few of those are seats I would say should be targeted specifically Which ones do you think should be targeted specifically and why?
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,212
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 24, 2021 3:47:46 GMT
What is "EMs"? Certainly not East Midlands?
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