CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 17, 2020 12:19:09 GMT
Serious question, how accurate are Bolivian opinion polls?
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 17, 2020 13:03:03 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 17, 2020 13:54:35 GMT
Serious question, how accurate are Bolivian opinion polls? It varies a lot and many are clearly worthless. This should be one of the better ones, it is conducted in cooperation with a network of universities and has a geographically weighed sample so no underrepresentation of rural and/or remote areas, but some MAS supporters may have been reluctant to say they'll vote for Arce and that effect is likely a bit higher with a right wing pollster. My guess would be that Arce and MAS is at least a couple of points higher than the serious polls show due to fear of revealing that you're voting for the left. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 17, 2020 14:38:05 GMT
Serious question, how accurate are Bolivian opinion polls? It varies a lot and many are clearly worthless. This should be one of the better ones, it is conducted in cooperation with a network of universities and has a geographically weighed sample so no underrepresentation of rural and/or remote areas, but some MAS supporters may have been reluctant to say they'll vote for Arce and that effect is likely a bit higher with a right wing pollster. My guess would be that Arce and MAS is at least a couple of points higher than the serious polls show due to fear of revealing that you're voting for the left. Interesting, thanks for that. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 18, 2020 0:14:10 GMT
Añez is dropping out to give Mesa a chance to get within 10 points of Arce. Looks like we'll get a second round.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 18, 2020 9:15:53 GMT
Añez is dropping out to give Mesa a chance to get within 10 points of Arce. Looks like we'll get a second round. I hope so, the last election had Mesa in a clear second place and it was sad that Morales's election commission so clearly tried to push him over the line and escape a second round. Why do so many Latin-American leaders who start out so well then determine to cling on to power despite the damage to democracy? I was a fan of Evk Morales for a long time, but he fell victim to his own messiah complex. As it happens, I expect that Arce will win a run-off because he is not Morales. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 30, 2020 23:54:53 GMT
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 2, 2020 10:05:53 GMT
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Not exactly a neutral news site.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 2, 2020 10:41:46 GMT
According to the poll (from a decent quality pollster) Mesa would win a run-off by a comfortable margin. So it's crucial whether Arce gets the required 10 point lead.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 2, 2020 21:10:30 GMT
Arce leads by 10.4 points in the CELAG poll. Good enough on paper, but there'll almost certainly be some rigging so he needs a bigger margin (and it's well within the MoE of course).
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 13, 2020 22:05:23 GMT
Former President Jorge Quiroga Ramírez (60) has withdrawn and endorsed Mesa in order to consolidate the anti-MAS vote.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 18, 2020 9:54:53 GMT
It's morning in Bolivia and the polls will open in a few hours.
Some worrying signs. Election observers have been refused access to polling places and some have even been detained. But let's hope for the best.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 18, 2020 16:07:20 GMT
In other worrying news: The electoral tribunal has announced they won't release preliminary results this evening (as promised earlier), without stating when the first official results will be available.
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Post by relique on Oct 19, 2020 6:28:35 GMT
Apparently, there's an exit poll showing Luis Arce (MAS) at 52% and Carlos Mesa at 35%. That would mean that the people of Bolivia have democratically completely condemned the infamous military coup by the right and reinstated a left-wing leader. Finally some good news !
Edit: it's 52/31%. The MAS also takes a majority in both chambers. Jeannine Anez officially said Arce was elected.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 19, 2020 7:38:16 GMT
Apparently, there's an exit poll showing Luis Arce (MAS) at 52% and Carlos Mesa at 35%. That would mean that the people of Bolivia have democratically completely condemned the infamous military coup by the right and reinstated a left-wing leader. Finally some good news !
Edit: it's 52/31%. The MAS also takes a majority in both chambers. Jeannine Anez officially said Arce was elected.
What a big relief. There were so many signs seemingly pointing towards rigging and a worrying lack a transparency (plus rumours of each member of the electoral tribunal suddenly having a brand new tesla in their garage etc.). The exact numbers in the exit poll: |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Oct 19, 2020 7:54:00 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2020 9:15:49 GMT
Yes, a pleasant surprise in more senses than one.
It is likely that there was a section of the right who wanted to openly rig the results, but in the end decided this was "impractical".
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 19, 2020 14:13:10 GMT
We're at 17% counting and MAS is trailing by 8 points in the official results, which is more than Evo was trailing by at this point. Of course it's possible that these partial results are merely even more lopsidedly urban and/or eastern than last time, but I'm not breathing a sigh of relief yet.
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Post by relique on Oct 19, 2020 14:20:46 GMT
We're at 17% counting and MAS is trailing by 8 points in the official results, which is more than Evo was trailing by at this point. Of course it's possible that these partial results are merely even more lopsidedly urban and/or eastern than last time, but I'm not breathing a sigh of relief yet. Yes but in La Paz, we only are at 6,75% and it was probably the most right-wing friendly areas, given that the most rural ones are always those who transmit results later.
On the contrary in Beni it's 28,42%, Santa Cruz 18,83% (with a very low vote for Mesa, largely beaten by Camacho (who only seems to take votes here, though), and Tarija 40,03%.
Clearly, the right-wing regions are giving their results early.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 19, 2020 14:35:43 GMT
Apparently, there's an exit poll showing Luis Arce (MAS) at 52% and Carlos Mesa at 35%. That would mean that the people of Bolivia have democratically completely condemned the infamous military coup by the right and reinstated a left-wing leader. Finally some good news !
Edit: it's 52/31%. The MAS also takes a majority in both chambers. Jeannine Anez officially said Arce was elected.
You mean a coup against an authoritarian thug who, after a referendum decided against letting him stay in power, went and did it anyway, then rigged said election and used violence against peaceful protestors? Patriotic army officers in the Bolivian military did the right thing. Acre has also done the right thing announcing a government of national unity, let's hope he sticks to it. |
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